Hi guys,
Did some selling lately..... DSENX, FSHCX, and sold some GLFOX this week. What a comeback! I want to sell more before rates go up in Europe and the dollar goes higher. Also, this market gives me the jitters with things so good yet it goes nowhere. It's scary. With mid-terms coming, good chance things get worse. Also, all Republican press's have had a recession in their first term since 1900......just saying....
God bless
the Pudd
Comments
Thanks much
DLEUX is Europe-oriented, not international. Unimpressive thus far.
Yeah, I myself would sell DSENX for spending money only, no other reason.
@Pudd,
We have two-thirds of the "president" 's term to go.
Regards,
Ted
Yeah, I can see why you ask. Taking profits, also I have FUSVX which I'm going to use. DESNX is more volatile than the S&P Fund....also higher ER. Also, I'm a fund collector so some need to go! I'm cutting my footprint in the markets now before the elections. Since I've retired, it's more important to not lose so much than to be as bold as I once was.
Hi davidmoran,
This is my thinking ...... from now to mid-terms, flat to down....then, the Demis roll in......I wish it was Moore. Anyway, then we get an updraft as Tweety says he will do the deal with anybody, i.e., Nancy Pelosi. Then, we're set up for the end. Again, subject to change, but I think not. And we haven't talked about the Fed or peak growth for the world much less the deficit that's coming. I keep thinking about the Billy Joel song, "We Didn't Start the Fire."
Now, your turn. What's going to happen, think you?
God bless
the Pudd
I think more muddling, for the most part. Economy and market will do okay some more. The "president" will probably be gone sooner than later. That will result in not as large an improvement as some keenly anticipate. (I foresee no catastrophe except for increased possibility of shootings of new sens and reps after this fall. But then that's because the tone all reminds me of 1968.)
Roger that, 007!
As a lad with brother and sisters, I remember '68 Detroit burned. People were shot that year. As an old man, that scares me greatly. When empires end, they over extend and pay for it dearly. And to that end will they spend the last drachma to extend the empire for one day more.
God bless
the Pudd
I was looking to sell some GLFOX today when I noticed that some of the companies in the top 10 of the fund have not traded in days or weeks. 7 of the top 10 trade on the OTC pick sheets, so my question is: where else do they trade? How do I get a daily quote on their price (they comprise about 50% of the fund's holdings)? Funny how you don't think about these things when you're buying....
God bless
the Pudd
I added to PGIRX, GLBEX, IFAFX later in April
Right now not doing anything. I might take some profits if markets deteriorate and look to redeploy the cash at appropriate time.
It's May. Trying to forget work (work sucks big time) and spend some time with friends and family instead of Buy-Sell-Ponder.
Here is a good on convertibles:
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C000-S004-convertible-bonds-can-smooth-volatility.html
Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 158 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is undervalued based upon the barometer's metrics. Last week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 154 indicating borderline fair value for the Index. Also, I am finding that short interest for the Index remains at 1.6 days to cover while the 2/10 US Treasury spread moved from 0.47 to 0.44 during the week indicating that the yield cure continues to flatten.
I'm still with my themes in this rising interest rate environment and that is adding to my money market investments (AMAXX & GBAXX) which have seven day yields of better than 1.5% and maintaining my CD ladder and rolling them upon maturity into higher paying ones. Like slick another one of my moves has been adding to my convertible securities fund (FISCX) which is up ytd about 6.4% and so far, for me, the best move has been found in my commodity securities fund (PCLAX) which is up ytd about 8.1%. My convertible securities fund makes up about 5% of my income area of my portfolio and I plan to build out my commodity securities fund to about 8% of my growth area. Like slick, I noticed that many of my hybrid funds were increasing their holdings in convertibles so I followed suite and opened a position in a convertible fund more than a year ago. So far, so good. Another move has been in the banking area through my pick FRBAX which is up ytd about 4.2%. I have a good number of funds that seem to be handling increasing interest rates well and one sleeve, large/mid cap, where all three funds (AGTHX, AMCPX & SPECX) are up. Overall, my portfolio is off it's 52 week high by 4.9% (end of January high) and ytd down 0.46%. In addition, I thinking of adding IALAX in my growth area which is up ytd 11.95% by doing a nav exchange from IIVAX (or part of it) into IALAX.
A fund that I have begun to follow and study to see how it positions is KCMTX. One of its managers, Parker Binion, has posted some on the board. Also, David did a feature on the fund a while back. Interestingly, as of 12/31/17 better than 80% of the fund was invested in the combined sectors of financial services, consumer cyclical, health care, technology and industrials. Year-to-date as of May 4, 2018 (according to Morningstar) it is down 0.45% while its rolling 1 year return is 9.57%, three year rolling return is 6.74% and five year rolling return is 8.95%. It might be worth a look. I have wanted to invest in this fund; however, my current brokerage house does not offer it for purchase. Still wanting to purchase this fund but not wanting to open a new brokerage account for a single fund purchase. Nice fund but, I'm thinking, needs to expand its share class offerings and availability at more brokerage houses thus making it available to more investors.
Below is the link to David's write up on KCMTX.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/02/elevator-talk-parker-binion-kcm-macro-trends-fund/
Any students of the markets have any note worthy interest rate plays, they favor, and might want to share?
Wishing all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Thanks much.
Thanks for the kick back! Yes, just another lesson learned. Will try to do better in the future.
Hi Skeeter!
Good post.....as usual. FISCX ..... I must look this up now that I've see it twice. It's getting hard to earn a buck in this market. FRBAX .....yes, I own it too. Will add on weakness. Will also say this: if one was looking to open a starter position in FSDAX, now might be a good time to think about it. The fund has been hit hard.
God bless
the Pudd
For the week ending May 11th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 155 which put the barometer's needle on the borderline between fairvalue and under value for the S&P 500 Index based upon the barometer's metrics. In addition, during the week the short interest for SPY moved from 1.6 to 2.5 days to cover along with the 2/10 US Treasury yield curve spread moved from 0.44 to 0.43 as it continues to flatten.
This past week Old_Skeet increased his position in his convertible securities fund (FISCX) which was up 1.89% for the week and his commodity strategy fund (PCLAX) which was up 1.35% for the week. Year-to-date these two funds are up 8.44% and 9.58% respectively while one of my large cap growth funds (SPECX) was up for the week 3.16% and 9.53% year-to-date. These three funds are my current three best performers.
I'm still looking at IALAX but since about half the fund is invested in tech I've held off on doing a nav transfer from IIVAX into IALAX thinking tech is now overbought. In addition, an asset class now becoming of interest for Old_Skeet is small caps. So I may just hold off on doing something along these lines.
All-in-all, it was a good week in the markets with the 500 Index up about 2.4%. But, with short interest on the rise this could be an indicator that the near-term upside for the Index might be limited with a pullback on the horizon.
Have a good Mother's Day weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
88163VAD1
I sold some PARWX this week. It holds an overweight of healthcare and lots of tech. It had a good week.....sold 25% .....will do more on strength will wait for weakness to buy. Also sold MAPIX taking profit in that will not buy it back again. Following Fido, sell now....weakness will come. Will buy later. The leader in my portfolio is FSPHX. Rock on! The longnecks flow freely now.....it's summer. Let's party! Turn the music up, gather your friends close and smile.....it's all good, bro's!
God bless
the Pudd
Yes, if I remember you also have this fund. I have two (2) other funds in this space: FJSCX and FTIPX. Both of them I like better. Also I will throw in FMIJX ..... that also has some holding over there. So it's more just the odd man out, I guess. That's the technical part.....my thoughts now for what that's worth.
China's President has said he wants quality growth over volume. What does that mean? High debt levels.....the Economist talks about this almost every week. So, China (29.3%) of the fund......again, this won't matter until it does. Japan (26.6%) ......again, I have a fund just for Japan. As long as there is QE, I'm there. South Korea (15.3%) ... think Germany in the 80s. What it cost them to bring the East up to their level. It took years. It was a money pit. Could this happen in Korea? Just thinking......
I'm sure companies will rush in and it will be costly.
God bless
the Pudd