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Latest Presentation From Gundlach: Mirror, Mirror on the Wall
OK, if I simply click on Investor's "Here", above, a new MFO page tries to form, but freezes before completion. And here is the URL which I copied from that uncompleted page:
So there is evidently an issue of trying to just click on a link vs opening a new tab to go there. And that is (I think) flaky and liable to lead to lots of inconsistent results.
I'm guessing this is most likely the reason that it works for Investor (see his comment just below) but not for me, and for Catch's report of intermittent problems.
Thanks scott. Feeling a little numb after the Gundlach deck. You know that Andrew Redleaf is saying just the opposite. He's bullish on SP500. As are the folks at D&C. The deck seems to suggest that the US economy will not turn the corner, like it did at beginning of Clinton's 2nd term. Wish I was on call to get better appreciation. Suspect the US public will have little patience for more of same during President Obama's 2nd term.
FWIW, I think that the truth is that if you look at the US economy in isolation, it stands a theoretical chance to do better than either Europe or Asia at this point, and probably for at least another year or two, simply because we got started on a decent cleanup much earlier than Europe (they still haven' t really figured out what to do), and Asia is just now starting into a really delayed downturn. (Yes, that sentence is ridiculously long.)
The problem, of course, is that we can't look at the US economy in isolation, so the question then becomes how much we will be dragged down by the rest of the players.
Throw in Israel/Iran for good measure, and I don't really believe that any of these crystal balls are good enough to see through all of that. I'm really starting to seriously consider a gradual major pullback in our equity position, which at this point is only about 20% in any case, and maybe even drop down the bond exposure from 34% to maybe 25%.
We're up almost 9% for the year in our portfolio... I'm thinking of grabbing the money and sitting on the sidelines for a while. Doesn't seem highly probable that this well-manipulated market will make a huge up-move from here,,, odds seem to favor down if anything.
Reply to @Old_Joe: Mine goes to the link properly when clicked. It is possible that your download from the target web site did not complete when you clicked the link and your browser is confused.
Reply to @Old_Joe: US Economy would be cruising along much better had Europe austerity measures not completely backfired and now growth is below zero for many European countries and debt is not less. The recession in Europe has effected US companies and their hiring. It is not an isolated world anymore. The only way to reduce debt to GDP ratio is to grow the economy so the denominator is bigger and you have extra cash to pay down the debt over time. Large cuts is very much likely to backfire.
If you cut the government spending, a bunch of private sector companies that are beneficiaries of that spending will either lay off workers or at least stop hiring, downscale their investments etc. This creates a cascade effect to other businesses. In turn tax revenue will go down which in turn negate the cuts in government spending. Large cuts did not work in great depression and it did not work today.
Hi Old_Joe, I have seen this a few times, too; and on one occassion, from my own link in a post. Note: I always start the computer day with a clean browser.....being all previous links and sites cleared from cache and related. Don't know what would cause this action and also knowing that you are using a different browser, versus the IE 9 version here. Take care, Catch
Reply to @Charles: The US has dusted itself off and is going along better than anyone else (although that's still only just muddling along, with heavy discussion of another QE), but at what cost for what growth there is?
Europe is a mess and you have officials who will try to keep the status quo by any means necessary (again, it becomes a matter of at what cost, both short-term and long-term) rather than face reality. Europe will kick the can, I guess it becomes whether Germany will continue to go along with it or go their own direction.
Emerging Markets are all over the place - Brazil seems to be coming back a bit (and I still like BRAQ, although I don't own it at the moment), and while China has done terribly , other areas in Asia (Indonesia, Singapore) have fared much better. I think Singapore REITS are best performing asset in the last year - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/singapore-reits-yield-world-s-best-returns-southeast-asia.html "Singapore’s $38 billion REIT market has returned an average 37 percent in 2012, twice the gains in the U.S., U.K. and Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia, the largest REIT market in the Asia-Pacific region with $86 billion, advanced 24 percent."
There are some patches of European stocks that are going crazy - French co's Gemalto and Ingenico (related to mobile payment boom) are up something like 88% and 55%, respectively (and the latter doing far better than its US counterpart, Verifone, which is -12%). In Singapore, look at Starhub - up nearly 40% and big dividend. Tower Bersama - big Indonesian cell tower company - up 88%.
I hate to quote Cramer, but in terms of his "there's always a bull market somewhere", look at mobile, but the thing is, you can't limit yourself to the US - so many interesting plays on it in other parts of the world. Health/Supplements - look at Schiff Nutrition up 121% in the US, or a company like CHR Hansen in Denmark, up 60% or German co Symrise (although that's more flavor and fragrance) up nearly 50%. Infrastructure, too - Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), which I've discussed on here in the past, up 42%
I'm not *as* bullish on the US as some, although I do think it's likely the best house, cleanest shirt, whatever one would like to call it, in comparison. I do think there are a lot of interesting opportunities around the world, and even though Europe has its problems, some sectors or individual companies are doing well or really well.
I'm to the point where it becomes more about what you're looking for than where you're looking for it. I still think people have to be globally diversified, whether they're looking for funds or specific plays on specific themes.
Many of the "sell in May and go away" folks are wondering what happened this year. Should have been "sell in March and come back in July". But we are not through the year, yet. Nonetheless, the current trend is bullish, with both the ECB and the Fed ready and willing to do everything they can. Despite the wall of worries, many of which have been around for at least a year or longer, markets have stumbled upward. And just when most "experts" had written off China, that country announces a huge stimulus program, too. If you do not regularly read Guild's commentary, it is worth a few minutes. They have been pretty much spot-on in terms of their reading of the world's economic situation. I know Mr. Gundlach would love for things to be rotten, but at this point it's just not happening. Another pretty good commentator is Linda Duessel of Federated Investors, whose weekly column is almost always well done.
Reply to @Investor: Yes, you know that we see that situation in the same perspective. It seems to me that the question now, though, is how much to bet on the US, when we can't help but be affected by the rest of the world's problems.
There just seems to be a real undercurrent of negative reports in the past few weeks if you carefully scan the Wall Street Journal and The Economist. Reports of this type are important because there's no fund manager bias there trying to convince you to shift money around.
Reply to @Accipiter: Not sure where you want us to click?
Oh, OK. You mean "here" as in "above". Yessir- works fine now without going to new tab. You be smart fellah!
I'd forgotten all about this... must have been bugging you a little, though.)
BTW- The sub-par response time that I was experiencing seems to have been associated with a larger-than usual number of open tabs on this browser. Now it's down to the 8 or so I normally keep open, and everything seems to be OK.
Accipiter, thanks once again for your technical help on this site. I honestly don't know how it could function without your continuing help.
Comments
OK, if I simply click on Investor's "Here", above, a new MFO page tries to form, but freezes before completion. And here is the URL which I copied from that uncompleted page: And you are of course right- it doesn't work with that link, but that IS nevertheless the place where "Here" tried to go.
BUT!
If instead of just clicking on "Hear" I tell my browser to "Open Link in New Tab", it works just fine, and goes to this URL: which of course is correct.
And if I "Copy Link Location" from Investor's "Here", this is what is copied:which is also correct.
So there is evidently an issue of trying to just click on a link vs opening a new tab to go there. And that is (I think) flaky and liable to lead to lots of inconsistent results.
I'm guessing this is most likely the reason that it works for Investor (see his comment just below) but not for me, and for Catch's report of intermittent problems.
The problem, of course, is that we can't look at the US economy in isolation, so the question then becomes how much we will be dragged down by the rest of the players.
Throw in Israel/Iran for good measure, and I don't really believe that any of these crystal balls are good enough to see through all of that. I'm really starting to seriously consider a gradual major pullback in our equity position, which at this point is only about 20% in any case, and maybe even drop down the bond exposure from 34% to maybe 25%.
We're up almost 9% for the year in our portfolio... I'm thinking of grabbing the money and sitting on the sidelines for a while. Doesn't seem highly probable that this well-manipulated market will make a huge up-move from here,,, odds seem to favor down if anything.
But what the heck do I know...
If you cut the government spending, a bunch of private sector companies that are beneficiaries of that spending will either lay off workers or at least stop hiring, downscale their investments etc. This creates a cascade effect to other businesses. In turn tax revenue will go down which in turn negate the cuts in government spending. Large cuts did not work in great depression and it did not work today.
I have seen this a few times, too; and on one occassion, from my own link in a post.
Note: I always start the computer day with a clean browser.....being all previous links and sites cleared from cache and related.
Don't know what would cause this action and also knowing that you are using a different browser, versus the IE 9 version here.
Take care,
Catch
Europe is a mess and you have officials who will try to keep the status quo by any means necessary (again, it becomes a matter of at what cost, both short-term and long-term) rather than face reality. Europe will kick the can, I guess it becomes whether Germany will continue to go along with it or go their own direction.
Emerging Markets are all over the place - Brazil seems to be coming back a bit (and I still like BRAQ, although I don't own it at the moment), and while China has done terribly , other areas in Asia (Indonesia, Singapore) have fared much better. I think Singapore REITS are best performing asset in the last year - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-04/singapore-reits-yield-world-s-best-returns-southeast-asia.html "Singapore’s $38 billion REIT market has returned an average 37 percent in 2012, twice the gains in the U.S., U.K. and Japan, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Australia, the largest REIT market in the Asia-Pacific region with $86 billion, advanced 24 percent."
There are some patches of European stocks that are going crazy - French co's Gemalto and Ingenico (related to mobile payment boom) are up something like 88% and 55%, respectively (and the latter doing far better than its US counterpart, Verifone, which is -12%). In Singapore, look at Starhub - up nearly 40% and big dividend. Tower Bersama - big Indonesian cell tower company - up 88%.
I hate to quote Cramer, but in terms of his "there's always a bull market somewhere", look at mobile, but the thing is, you can't limit yourself to the US - so many interesting plays on it in other parts of the world. Health/Supplements - look at Schiff Nutrition up 121% in the US, or a company like CHR Hansen in Denmark, up 60% or German co Symrise (although that's more flavor and fragrance) up nearly 50%. Infrastructure, too - Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), which I've discussed on here in the past, up 42%
I'm not *as* bullish on the US as some, although I do think it's likely the best house, cleanest shirt, whatever one would like to call it, in comparison. I do think there are a lot of interesting opportunities around the world, and even though Europe has its problems, some sectors or individual companies are doing well or really well.
I'm to the point where it becomes more about what you're looking for than where you're looking for it. I still think people have to be globally diversified, whether they're looking for funds or specific plays on specific themes.
There just seems to be a real undercurrent of negative reports in the past few weeks if you carefully scan the Wall Street Journal and The Economist. Reports of this type are important because there's no fund manager bias there trying to convince you to shift money around.
Simply click on "here", link fails.
"Open with New Tab": Works fine.
when you click here in investors comment second item from the top.
Oh, OK. You mean "here" as in "above". Yessir- works fine now without going to new tab. You be smart fellah!
I'd forgotten all about this... must have been bugging you a little, though.
BTW- The sub-par response time that I was experiencing seems to have been associated with a larger-than usual number of open tabs on this browser. Now it's down to the 8 or so I normally keep open, and everything seems to be OK.
Accipiter, thanks once again for your technical help on this site. I honestly don't know how it could function without your continuing help.
I was still editing.
when you click here in investors comment second item from the top.
it should improve the clicking of external links that are added via buttonbar or ctrl+L when viewing with the MFO header (embedded).
well, I was experimenting with something else that caused an issue and got this fix along the way.
now you don't have to right click in most cases. I don't know how older versions of IE will react, but firefox works fine with the change
thx for confirming.