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Hi guys! Sold PRBLX last Friday and Monday. Even the Pudd gets lucky sometimes.....lol. Today added to FSDAX ...will again on weakness. God bless the Pudd
Wondering about the status of SPHD, which seems to be getting pummeled YTD (-6.5%) because of its holdings in Utilities, Real Estate and other interest-sensitive stocks. I have built up pretty large cap gains since I bought it a few years ago. It's definitely in the wrong sectors right now, especially compared to something similar like SCHD. Opinions about SPHD?
@willmatt72 My position in SPHD got closed out in early January due to concerns about whether it would struggle in a rising interest rate environment. The $'s freed up got invested in BTBFX. So far the decision is making sense. But, 2 months is a very short time......
@willmatt72 Yes. That part of the reason was tied into my rising interest rate scenario thinking. Also, increasing my investment in a successful asset management fund made sense given the increasingly richly valued status of the stock market.
I sold SPHD on the late upswing today for a 16% gain over a few years. It paid a half decent dividend as well, but I don't like its positioning going forward. There are other dividend options that may do better in the current environment.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 151 putting the S&P 500 Index in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. In addition, I am finding that short interest has dropped from 1.4 days to cover to 1.1 days.
The three main data feeds that feed the barometer are a breadth feed, an earnings feed along with a technical score feed. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Thus far this year the low weekly reading of 127 (extremely overbought) came on 1/26/2018 with an S&P 500 Index valuation of 2873 and the high weekly reading of 159 (undervalued) came two weeks latter on 2/9/18 with an Index valuation of 2620. The barometer's weekly reading moved about 20% from high to low while the Index's valuation moved about 9%. With this, there has been some good range movement in both the Index's valuation and also in the barometer's reading from extermely overbought to undervalued. This week the Index reads as fair value on the barometer's scale at 151.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Index Compass there was a shake up in the lead pack this week with XLI (industrials) losing it's legs and XLK (technology) finding it's legs and moving into second place within the pack. XLF (financials) remains a pack hound with XLY (discretionary) still keeping the lead and has remained my spiff hound since early October. Indeed it has had a good run.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass there was also a shake up in the lead pack this week with VTI (domestic stocks) losing ground and AXJL (Asia ex Japan) moving into third place within the pack. GSP (commodities) holds second place while EEM (emerging markets) remains the lead hound and is also my spiff hound.
One of the questions I was recently asked is how do you know when to call off the hunt?
I'll call the hunt off when 1) I get tired of hunting and/or 2) the stock hounds lose momentum and can not out run the fixed income hound (AGG) or their bogey hound (SPY). Seems, both the bogey hound and the fixed income hound currently leads the income proxy hounds of XLU (utilities) ... XLRE (real estate) ... XLP (staples) ... XTL (telecom) along with XLE (energy).
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Hi guys! Added a little to FTIPX and MAPIX on Friday. Also opened a small position in THOPX. I seem to be in a fund collecting mode again.....damn it. Looking over the portfolio.....some good things: BTBFX, PARMX, WAMVX did well I thought. Many did poorly, though not a surprise. The worst were RAANX, MAPIX, GLFOX, FSHCX and FLPSX. Moving on to other things.....lower dollar better for overseas holdings, yes? More U.S. debt means more dollars in the world, yes? Means lower dollar, yes? Also good for exports, right? Not so good for imports - China, Japan, South Korea, yes.
So, my next question is: could the world slow down because of this? My thinking is yes. Could we, instead of China, now be exporting deflation to the world with a weaker dollar? STOP! I need a longneck. This is getting deep. I'm trying to make this simple---we are importing inflation and exporting deflation like China did a few years ago, no? I know you guys are saying interest rates are going up. Yeah, but.....I think not so much cause we have the highest rates already...... and too high and everything will tank, no? So, saying all that ..... is this a double bottom we're looking at or a new lower level in the market? As things might have changed. More thoughts later...... God bless the Pudd
Wondering about the status of SPHD, which seems to be getting pummeled YTD (-6.5%) because of its holdings in Utilities, Real Estate and other interest-sensitive stocks. I have built up pretty large cap gains since I bought it a few years ago. It's definitely in the wrong sectors right now, especially compared to something similar like SCHD. Opinions about SPHD?
Dividend stocks tend to ebb and flow, so I assume funds focused in this area do the same. I would tend to stay the course here.
I plan to add to an existing SCHD position when rates settle at their ultimate higher levels, but that might be a year or so from now. I've looked at SPHD, but that duplicated individual divi payers in my portfolio. As you noted, there's quite a bit of a downtrend in this space, but the divi's are what I'm looking for as I'm in the distribution phase.
A fund I plan to add in the future which has gotten a bit of discussion on this board is PMAIX. It has a nice global allocation, with a good dividend. It's also held up pretty well with the initial rate spikes. I'm watching to see if this continues. It might be worth a look.
For the week ending March 9th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 146 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is in the lower range of fair value. In review the three major feeds within the barometer there is an earnings feed, a breadth feed and a technical score feed. Generlly, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Last week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 151 placing it in the upper part of fair value. In following the short interest for the Index the days to cover have risen from 1.1 to 1.9.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLF (financials), XLY (discretionary) and XLK (technology) which has become the new lead hound. Since, XLY remains a member of the lead pack it continues to be the spiff hound. Should it falter and fall from lead pack status then the spiff will move to a new hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the lead pack consist of AXJL (Asia ex Japan), GSP (commodities) and EEM (emerging markets) continues to be the lead hound and carry the spiff.
Recently, I was asked what my third spiff would be? Currently, I am not running a third spiff. But, it would come from my Style Compass if I were to have one. But, since LCG (large cap growth) is the lead hound within this compass and I have ample coverage in the LCG category I've elected not to have a special investment position coming from this compass.
Within Old_Seet's Style Compass the lead pack consist of MCG (mid cap growth), SCG (small cap growth) and the lead hound is LCG (large cap growth).
In the not to distant future it will be time for Old_Skeet to close up shop and close all spiffs. My spiff strategy is a seasonal one that begins in the fall (as the leaves fall) and runs to around spring (as the trees beging to bud) unless market conditions warrant otherwise. Usually during the off season I move my spiff money to either cash or bonds. Most likely this year it will become part of my cash allocation because of the anticipated rising interest rate environment.
Thanks @ Old_Skeet, your "Style Compass" is new to me and looks like it includes the M* style boxes. Do you monitor both Equity and Bond Style boxes? Do you use ETFs of funds to proxy these boxes? Do you mind sharing those ETFS or funds. Thanks.
Thank you for your inquiry. Sorry for the delay in responding as I have been watching a good number of basketball tournament games today.
For the equity styles I pull this information form Morningstar's Fund Category Performance site. I don't jockey my bonds too much as the lions share of my returns come from stocks. No ETF's are used to follow the equity styles. Within bonds I run pretty much a static positioning using a good number of multi sector bond funds in this space plus a few others and let the fund managers do the positioning after I have made my fund selections. Again, I am not as active within the income space like I am in the equity space as the lions share of my returns come from equities. However, I do maintain a bond compass, of sorts, that tracks the top three bond fund types.
I have linked below Morningstar's Fund Category Performance site for easy reference.
For those that follow junkster, as I do, to see what his perspectives is on bonds linked below is his last post, that I can find, on the Morningstar board.
@jlev: I hold RPGAX for exposure to international bonds, of which I have little in my portfolio save a sliver of a modest position in SFGIX. The other two allocation funds I have, BRUFX and CCAPX, do not hold international bonds that I can see. RPGAX's bond exposure is through other TRP funds, but the fund's biggest position is a Blackstone hedge fund. I have no clue as to what its holdings are.
For those that follow junkster, as I do, to see what his perspectives is on bonds linked below is his last post, that I can find, on the Morningstar board.
A challenging year for many bond funds. Entering today I hold EIFAX, IOFIX, PUTIX, and FMPXX, the later being a Fidelity money market fund. My concern is the divergence with equities which are positive YTD and junk bonds which are negative YTD. I need a 1.90% annual return to pay my living expenses while keeping my nest egg intact. Hence at my age (71 next month) no longer very motivated in still compounding my capital. That could change if there were some type of major reset in stocks and bonds. I am fortunate I can still go on strenuous mountain and/or off trail hikes for up to six hours or longer. But I am not naive and realize that could change in the blink of an eye with some unforeseen health issue. So right now the markets take a back seat to my hiking passions while I am still fit and able. Presently, my main project is working with a ranger at my nearby national park documenting hidden off trail waterfalls. Far more enjoyable than being hyper focused on the wiggles and squiggles of the markets.
Late last week I sold parts of my holdings in SFGIX and DSENX as well as my remaining tiny chunk of FAAFX. With that, I brought equities down to 70% of my portfolio from 80%.
Some of that is for personal reasons. I've been pretty much all in the market for the 15 years, it's been a great ride, and I now want to raise cash to buy a house in a year or so. The money I'm taking out of the market is money I expect to need soon.
I also think that, despite the fabulous economic fundamentals, the US now faces political risk: there's a chance IMHO that Trump will do something phenomonally stupid, or that Mueller will find a smoking gun and that (in the latter case) Trump doesn't go quietly.
I hope I'm wrong on both counts, but I'm sleeping better now that I've got enough in cash and conservative bond funds to meet my near-term financial goals.
Bond funds are tough to judge - for me. I have 3, IOFAX, PONDX and MAINX. MAINX has done the best YTD by a lot and I believe in it long term. . I'm thinking (pondering) I should cut ties with PONDX. Great history, but history isn't making money now. Thanks @Junkster for your insight.
This is not a suggestion or recommendation to @Junkster, but I'll just point out the obvious. As of Friday's close, a ladder of individually held to maturity Treasuries were yielding, not adjusting for state income tax exemptions, with little or no compounding of capital, and with zero worries of the "wiggles and squiggles of the markets"...
I was going to mention CDs and Treasuries. They are enticing. Just not sure I am ready to tie my money up to that extent quite yet. Maybe if rates continue their ascent or maybe a portion of my capital.
@MikeM, Seems World Bond category is holding up (of which your MAINX is one). Anothers I screened (performance YTD & good risk profile): PRSNX - TRPrice Multisector International (Tracks MAINX with a longer history),
I own that one, PRSNX. Pretty happy. Down just a small fraction, ytd. I thought I might add TRP global junk: PRIHX. I'm transitioning, need income more than growth. What about buying INTO EM bonds (PREMX) right now? How much further down can the monthly div. slip, eh?
I opened a position with FUTY, Fidelity Utilities Index, a fairly beaten down sector and a pretty good dividend. I plan on DCA'ing over the next several months.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 151 putting the S&P 500 Index in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. Short interest has picked up a bit on the Index and is found to be listed at 1.9 days to cover from 1.1. In April, the barometer's earnings feed will be reset to reflect 2Q2018 earnings.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLK (technology) leading followed by XLY (discretionary) (my spiff hound) and XTL (telecommunciation). I have maintained a spiff position in XLY since October to take adavantage of a seasonal investment strategy as the Christmas shopping season approached. Thus far it has been a good position which I plan to keep open as long as it can maintain lead pack status. XLF (financials) has now lost its legs and currently has dropped back form lead pack status being replaced with XTL (telecommunciation). Perhaps, XLF (financials) will soon find its legs and regain lead pack status.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the three leading hounds are EEM (emerging markets), GSP (commodities) and CWB (convertibles). My spiff hound remains EEM and I plan to leave my spiff in place as long as EEM can maintain lead pack status. AXJL (Asia ex Japan) lost its legs this past week and was replaced by CWB (convertibles) which are now having a grand showing in this anticipated rising interest rate environment.
This will conclude Old_Skeet's postings for the month of March as I will be traveling and most likely I will not be able to post my weekly updates. My next planned posting will most likely be on Friday April 6th.
Have a great weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
I track MAINX and own PRSNX. MAINX is actually UP for the ytd. Not many are. RISK at M* is a bit higher than PRSNX, but you're getting paid for it. PRSNX --- along with MAINX--- BOTH rate "high" return status at M*. (PRSNX is 9.05% of my stuff.) PRSNX pays MONTHLY, at 3.42% TTM yield. MAINX pays quarterly, at 3.77%. David Snowball once inquired on my behalf, and reported that when the trade makes sense, Teresa Kong at MAINX plays with US Treasuries. And MAINX is limited to Asia, don't forget.
More and more I'm "pondering" why I should be in bond funds at all. Why hold a category that most likely going forward, it's best benefit is to lose less than equities? Especially as "cash" investments like CD's and even money market accounts are quickly increasing into the 2-4% interest rate range. These thoughts are based on the portfolio being in tax deferred accounts though I'm not sure it would matter if in taxed.
This week I sold a good chuck of my PONDX to bring it down to about 4% of portfolio. Still own IOFAX at about the same amount. I do plan to hold my stake in MAINX. Those are the only bond funds I own.
Anyone else having these same pondering thoughts or am I making a mistake reducing or getting out of bonds for the most part and switching that safe ballast money to CDs. Can't change what my balanced funds do so won't be out altogether.
@MikeM: My PONCX is presently yielding 4.31%. I'm not ready to abandon ship yet, but like you am considering reducing my position. Regards, Ted Go Ramblers !
Comments
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 151 putting the S&P 500 Index in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. In addition, I am finding that short interest has dropped from 1.4 days to cover to 1.1 days.
The three main data feeds that feed the barometer are a breadth feed, an earnings feed along with a technical score feed. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Thus far this year the low weekly reading of 127 (extremely overbought) came on 1/26/2018 with an S&P 500 Index valuation of 2873 and the high weekly reading of 159 (undervalued) came two weeks latter on 2/9/18 with an Index valuation of 2620. The barometer's weekly reading moved about 20% from high to low while the Index's valuation moved about 9%. With this, there has been some good range movement in both the Index's valuation and also in the barometer's reading from extermely overbought to undervalued. This week the Index reads as fair value on the barometer's scale at 151.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Index Compass there was a shake up in the lead pack this week with XLI (industrials) losing it's legs and XLK (technology) finding it's legs and moving into second place within the pack. XLF (financials) remains a pack hound with XLY (discretionary) still keeping the lead and has remained my spiff hound since early October. Indeed it has had a good run.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass there was also a shake up in the lead pack this week with VTI (domestic stocks) losing ground and AXJL (Asia ex Japan) moving into third place within the pack. GSP (commodities) holds second place while EEM (emerging markets) remains the lead hound and is also my spiff hound.
One of the questions I was recently asked is how do you know when to call off the hunt?
I'll call the hunt off when 1) I get tired of hunting and/or 2) the stock hounds lose momentum and can not out run the fixed income hound (AGG) or their bogey hound (SPY). Seems, both the bogey hound and the fixed income hound currently leads the income proxy hounds of XLU (utilities) ... XLRE (real estate) ... XLP (staples) ... XTL (telecom) along with XLE (energy).
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Added a little to FTIPX and MAPIX on Friday. Also opened a small position in THOPX. I seem to be in a fund collecting mode again.....damn it. Looking over the portfolio.....some good things: BTBFX, PARMX, WAMVX did well I thought. Many did poorly, though not a surprise. The worst were RAANX, MAPIX, GLFOX, FSHCX and FLPSX. Moving on to other things.....lower dollar better for overseas holdings, yes? More U.S. debt means more dollars in the world, yes? Means lower dollar, yes? Also good for exports, right? Not so good for imports - China, Japan, South Korea, yes.
So, my next question is: could the world slow down because of this? My thinking is yes. Could we, instead of China, now be exporting deflation to the world with a weaker dollar? STOP! I need a longneck. This is getting deep. I'm trying to make this simple---we are importing inflation and exporting deflation like China did a few years ago, no? I know you guys are saying interest rates are going up. Yeah, but.....I think not so much cause we have the highest rates already...... and too high and everything will tank, no? So, saying all that ..... is this a double bottom we're looking at or a new lower level in the market? As things might have changed. More thoughts later......
God bless
the Pudd
I plan to add to an existing SCHD position when rates settle at their ultimate higher levels, but that might be a year or so from now. I've looked at SPHD, but that duplicated individual divi payers in my portfolio. As you noted, there's quite a bit of a downtrend in this space, but the divi's are what I'm looking for as I'm in the distribution phase.
A fund I plan to add in the future which has gotten a bit of discussion on this board is PMAIX. It has a nice global allocation, with a good dividend. It's also held up pretty well with the initial rate spikes. I'm watching to see if this continues. It might be worth a look.
For the week ending March 9th Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 146 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is in the lower range of fair value. In review the three major feeds within the barometer there is an earnings feed, a breadth feed and a technical score feed. Generlly, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Last week the barometer closed the week with a reading of 151 placing it in the upper part of fair value. In following the short interest for the Index the days to cover have risen from 1.1 to 1.9.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLF (financials), XLY (discretionary) and XLK (technology) which has become the new lead hound. Since, XLY remains a member of the lead pack it continues to be the spiff hound. Should it falter and fall from lead pack status then the spiff will move to a new hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the lead pack consist of AXJL (Asia ex Japan), GSP (commodities) and EEM (emerging markets) continues to be the lead hound and carry the spiff.
Recently, I was asked what my third spiff would be? Currently, I am not running a third spiff. But, it would come from my Style Compass if I were to have one. But, since LCG (large cap growth) is the lead hound within this compass and I have ample coverage in the LCG category I've elected not to have a special investment position coming from this compass.
Within Old_Seet's Style Compass the lead pack consist of MCG (mid cap growth), SCG (small cap growth) and the lead hound is LCG (large cap growth).
In the not to distant future it will be time for Old_Skeet to close up shop and close all spiffs. My spiff strategy is a seasonal one that begins in the fall (as the leaves fall) and runs to around spring (as the trees beging to bud) unless market conditions warrant otherwise. Usually during the off season I move my spiff money to either cash or bonds. Most likely this year it will become part of my cash allocation because of the anticipated rising interest rate environment.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Thank you for your inquiry. Sorry for the delay in responding as I have been watching a good number of basketball tournament games today.
For the equity styles I pull this information form Morningstar's Fund Category Performance site. I don't jockey my bonds too much as the lions share of my returns come from stocks. No ETF's are used to follow the equity styles. Within bonds I run pretty much a static positioning using a good number of multi sector bond funds in this space plus a few others and let the fund managers do the positioning after I have made my fund selections. Again, I am not as active within the income space like I am in the equity space as the lions share of my returns come from equities. However, I do maintain a bond compass, of sorts, that tracks the top three bond fund types.
I have linked below Morningstar's Fund Category Performance site for easy reference.
http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/
http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/ViewPost.aspx?apptype=0&PostID=3914111
Some of that is for personal reasons. I've been pretty much all in the market for the 15 years, it's been a great ride, and I now want to raise cash to buy a house in a year or so. The money I'm taking out of the market is money I expect to need soon.
I also think that, despite the fabulous economic fundamentals, the US now faces political risk: there's a chance IMHO that Trump will do something phenomonally stupid, or that Mueller will find a smoking gun and that (in the latter case) Trump doesn't go quietly.
I hope I'm wrong on both counts, but I'm sleeping better now that I've got enough in cash and conservative bond funds to meet my near-term financial goals.
Anothers I screened (performance YTD & good risk profile):
PRSNX - TRPrice Multisector International (Tracks MAINX with a longer history),
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week with a reading of 151 putting the S&P 500 Index in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. Short interest has picked up a bit on the Index and is found to be listed at 1.9 days to cover from 1.1. In April, the barometer's earnings feed will be reset to reflect 2Q2018 earnings.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLK (technology) leading followed by XLY (discretionary) (my spiff hound) and XTL (telecommunciation). I have maintained a spiff position in XLY since October to take adavantage of a seasonal investment strategy as the Christmas shopping season approached. Thus far it has been a good position which I plan to keep open as long as it can maintain lead pack status. XLF (financials) has now lost its legs and currently has dropped back form lead pack status being replaced with XTL (telecommunciation). Perhaps, XLF (financials) will soon find its legs and regain lead pack status.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the three leading hounds are EEM (emerging markets), GSP (commodities) and CWB (convertibles). My spiff hound remains EEM and I plan to leave my spiff in place as long as EEM can maintain lead pack status. AXJL (Asia ex Japan) lost its legs this past week and was replaced by CWB (convertibles) which are now having a grand showing in this anticipated rising interest rate environment.
This will conclude Old_Skeet's postings for the month of March as I will be traveling and most likely I will not be able to post my weekly updates. My next planned posting will most likely be on Friday April 6th.
Have a great weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
This week I sold a good chuck of my PONDX to bring it down to about 4% of portfolio. Still own IOFAX at about the same amount. I do plan to hold my stake in MAINX. Those are the only bond funds I own.
Anyone else having these same pondering thoughts or am I making a mistake reducing or getting out of bonds for the most part and switching that safe ballast money to CDs. Can't change what my balanced funds do so won't be out altogether.
Regards,
Ted
Go Ramblers !