Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening."
Does anyone know what his batting average is? I googled but couldn't find anything. I also looked at some of his previous years predictions and it seems like he repeats certain surprises until they finally happen.
5. The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude moves above $80. The price rises because of continued world growth and unexpected demand from developing markets, together with disappointing hydraulic fracking production, diminished inventories, OPEC discipline and only modest production increases from Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, Iraq and Iran.
6. Inflation becomes an issue of concern. Continued world GDP growth puts pressure on commodity prices. Tight labor markets in the industrialized countries create wage increases. In the United States, average hourly earnings gains approach 4% and the Consumer Price Index pushes above 3%.
7. With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market. -
Very interesting. Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister of the UK? Don’t think so. God help them if he is (another stable genius). The 3 propositions above don’t sound improbable at all. I’d say much better than 50/50 - actually likely. Don’t know enough about fracking to know if his prediction it will fall off is accurate. But oil above $80 is certainly possible if the global economy keeps heating up.
You propose an excellent question. How good are these experts? We can get a serviceable approximation in Byron Wein's case because he has been doing this for many decades. In his earlier forecasts he even scored himself, however not in more recent guesstimate exercises. Here is a Link that scores Wein's last year projections:
Not too impressive in terms of simple rights and wrongs, but that's an incomplete scorecard. The more practical and meaningful scorecard would rate the impact of each projection item in terms of financial impact of each forecasting element. Some would have a major impact, while others would have no impact whatsoever. That's a more challenging task and would differ for each reviewer.
Wein’s predicting accuracy is probably the same as yours or mine. That’s not very good. He’s been doing this for as long as I can remember - a couple decades at least.. I view his predictions as interesting / entertaining possibilities. I doubt he thinks you should invest according to them.
If you read through them, they’re pretty complex. So it’s unlikely he’ll nail any one of them 100%. If you like to gamble with your investments, there’s some interesting ideas here to game on. I’m not a gambler. Enjoy reading them simply for intellectual stimulation (beats football).
(Excerpt) Byron R. Wien ... today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. This is the 33rd year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.
Byron isn't "predicting" and he is not "forecasting" anything in this article. In fact he says as much right from the start, These are things that are out there and could become a factor, some thoughts more plausible than others.
@hank - I disagree or beg to differ take your pick. His "surprises" are totally market/investing related (see your excerpt quoted above). He doesn't say anything about acting on them which is good, nor do I intend to which could go either way. Just curious if he was better than 50:50 given it's his area (economy/investing) of competence.
Comments
6. Inflation becomes an issue of concern. Continued world GDP growth puts pressure on commodity prices. Tight labor markets in the industrialized countries create wage increases. In the United States, average hourly earnings gains approach 4% and the Consumer Price Index pushes above 3%.
7. With higher inflation, interest rates begin to rise. The Federal Reserve increases short-term rates four times in 2018 and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moves toward 4%, but the Fed shrinks its balance sheet only modestly because of the potential impact on the financial markets. High yield spreads widen, causing concern in the equity market.
-
Very interesting. Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister of the UK? Don’t think so. God help them if he is (another stable genius). The 3 propositions above don’t sound improbable at all. I’d say much better than 50/50 - actually likely. Don’t know enough about fracking to know if his prediction it will fall off is accurate. But oil above $80 is certainly possible if the global economy keeps heating up.
You propose an excellent question. How good are these experts? We can get a serviceable approximation in Byron Wein's case because he has been doing this for many decades. In his earlier forecasts he even scored himself, however not in more recent guesstimate exercises. Here is a Link that scores Wein's last year projections:
http://www.forexlive.com/news/!/report-card-how-byron-wiens-predictions-fared-in-2017-20180102
Not too impressive in terms of simple rights and wrongs, but that's an incomplete scorecard. The more practical and meaningful scorecard would rate the impact of each projection item in terms of financial impact of each forecasting element. Some would have a major impact, while others would have no impact whatsoever. That's a more challenging task and would differ for each reviewer.
Best of luck for this and following years.
I beg to differ.
Wein’s predicting accuracy is probably the same as yours or mine. That’s not very good. He’s been doing this for as long as I can remember - a couple decades at least.. I view his predictions as interesting / entertaining possibilities. I doubt he thinks you should invest according to them.
If you read through them, they’re pretty complex. So it’s unlikely he’ll nail any one of them 100%. If you like to gamble with your investments, there’s some interesting ideas here to game on. I’m not a gambler. Enjoy reading them simply for intellectual stimulation (beats football
(Excerpt) Byron R. Wien ... today issued his list of Ten Surprises for 2018. This is the 33rd year Byron has given his views on a number of economic, financial market and political surprises for the coming year. Byron defines a “surprise” as an event that the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is “probable,” having a better than 50% likelihood of happening.