Gold Report 2012

bee

From the 120 page report:
"The foundation for new all-time-highs is in place. As far as sentiment is concerned, we definitely see no euphoria with respect to gold. Skepticism, fear, and panic are never the final stop of a bull market. In the short run, seasonality seems to argue in favor of a continued sideways movement, but from August onwards gold should enter its seasonally best phase. USD 2,000 is our next 12M price target. We believe that the parabolic trend phase is still ahead of us, and that our long-term price target of USD 2,300/ounce could be on the conservative side."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/action/media/downloadFile?media_fileid=2061

Old_Joe

Hi bee- re: "The foundation for new all-time-highs is in place"... have you ever seen any dealer in gold say anything else?

bee

Reply to @Old_Joe:

Thanks for the reality check. Being down 25% on my PM fund (USAGX) I tend to start hearing Mark Twain's voice as he remind me that "a mine is nothing more than a hole in the ground with liar standing next to it."

But, if he's wrong I just might buy his Hartford Steamboat style home (well...a ticket to walk through) His home frames my classroom window. If his right...I'll be content to keep cleaning the glass in my classroom as a consolation to not following his...and your advice.

http://www.marktwainhouse.org/house/history.php

Have you visited the mines he worked in California or partaken the frog jumping contest?

catch22

Howdy bee,
Thank you for the article and your notes.
Somewhere between the delicate balance of money pumping by central banks and the continued aspect of delevering of the consumer will, in part; determine gold pricing outcomes in the next 12 months.
However, (and similar words added to legal documents) is the other aspect of the machines and traders finding a low enough price level to set the pump in motion, whether truely valid or not; as there is always a sector waiting for this action.
Tis the old "stuck between a rock and a hard place". One may suppose that the technical indicators will show the way. I expect a volatile arena.
Take care,
Catch

MikeM

Reply to @bee: Hi Bee. I've given up on miner funds. I owned USAGX for a few years and then swapped it for TGLDX because it actually held some physical gold (USAGX does not). I don't think I've made a cent on PM (miner) funds in the 5 years I've invested in them. So, about a month ago I swapped my TGLDX for a reit fund, CSRSX. I concluded that when advisors say you should own a some gold in your portfolio, they do not mean PM funds that invest in stocks of miner related businesses.

I get some gold exposure owning PRPFX, though I've cut that back from 15% to 5% of my portfolio.

Anyway, just my take on investing in PM funds fwiw. Hey, maybe I screwed up again and TGLDX will go up 50% in the next year.

Old_Joe

Hi bee: Not sure about the ones that he worked, but quite a few gold mines, yes. Pretty Interesting. Have good friends who live in Angels Camp, site of the Jumping Frog Contest.Nice place.

Rbrt

Reply to @MikeM: I read not long ago that maybe the miners are poorly managed, that perhaps they spend most of their efforts looking for junior miners to take over rather than looking for gold.
I have a little in XME and it may be headed to zero but for now I'm going to rebalance and hope for one more resurgence.

scott

Reply to @Rbrt: I think the issue becomes a matter of the Jim Rogers quote that if you want to invest in commodities, you invest in commodities. Natural resource companies may do well or may not based on management or a thousand other factors. However, the miners in particular seem to have a particular degree of difficulty. Many hedge funds also shorted the miners and went long gold. Who knows, but I do continue to hold a small amount of heavily Canadian DWGOX.