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EM Allocations.How much??

edited July 2012 in Fund Discussions
How much does everyone have in EM? 0-25% or more? Has anyone elimated EAFA index/index huggers to their allocation. I am thinking about eliminating high debt/low birthrate EAFA mutual funds with EM/emerging Asia equity/bond funds. TRP EM bond/Stock. Small positions now but I am aiming for 15% equity and at least 10% bond. I am only 45yo but I think we "high-debt"nations are in trouble from a demographic standpoint. I do subscribe to Research Affiliate's ideas on these matters but am interested in others views. BTW I am planning on switching out Causeway INt Value for Matthews Growth and Income. Civvx is doing better YTD so I will feel like I am getting a bargain of 200 basis points.
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Comments

  • edited July 2012
    ummm. it's spelled EAFE. I personally have 4.5% with a core EAFE fund -- long time position which was increased during the selloff in 2011. i might even add another manager for diversification and larger exposure. and EM is EM -- a separate asset class -- i hold 8.5% in EME and 3.5% in EMD. Some of underlying funds are still work in progress. if anything, EAFE funds are quite cheap, and you're getting Glaxo, BAT, Nestle at bargain pricing.
  • edited July 2012
    I have probably 30-35% (although I'd lean more towards 30ish) in EM, which is far less than I used to have. The other difference is that a fairly large % of that is now individual EM stocks instead of funds. I have started a position in the new AQR Defensive EM fund, too. I continue to have a high weighting towards EM and real assets (resources, real estate, infrastructure, etc)
  • How much in EM Bonds? Mine:

    46.52% of total portfolio is in PREMX
    3.05% in MAINX

    TOTAL: 49.57% in EM bonds. But let me also recommend, via Catch-22: FNMIX, at Fido. Its performance might be even better than PREMX, which lately has been on a tear.

    There is another, single bond I own, maturing in July, 2013. When the proceeds get to me, I believe I'll be adding it to MAPOX, which is holding about 30% domestic, "safer" bonds in its portfolio. It pays quarterly, like MAINX. But PREMX pays monthly.

    As for EM equities: do the Matthews funds count?
    MAPIX: 35.31% of portf.
    MACSX: 4.06%

    So: 39.37% total.

    MAPOX and MSCFX combined are 5.11% of portfolio.

    "Break a leg."

  • edited July 2012
    I have a little over 24% in cash. Of the remaining invested amount, about 30% is in emerging market equities (mainly Matthews funds) and a little over 7% in emerging market bonds (PEMDX). When I choose to move the cash into the markets, the bulk of it will go into EM funds.
  • edited July 2012
    I think we have to look at EM from both an equities and fixed-income perspective.

    Personally I like a balance of both EM equities and fixed income. As an example, EM Balanced Fund FEO is up nicely this year and so is EM Bond fund ESD. There are many other EM Bond funds as well.

    With my Bond allocation - I have quite a bit in EM bonds. Note that Income funds such as Pimco Income Fund (PIMIX/PONDX) has recently upped their EM Bond allocation from the low single digits to double-digits now. Arnott's Asset Allocation funds also have a sizable chunk in EM bonds and Pimco's Diversified Income fund is now sitting around 40% in EM Bonds.

    Global Bond funds from Hassenstab also hold a substantial amount in EM Bonds.

    Another fund such as EHI - Western Asset Global High Income CEF also holds quite a bit in EM Bonds at around 35% these days.

    My EM bond allocation as a portion of my bonds are quite substantial.

  • I have ~12% right now in EM equity and bond funds.

    eq funds I'm using:
    MACSX 5%
    MSMLX 1%
    ODVYX 1% new to me. continuing to DCA into

    and em bonds:
    FGBRX 4%
    MAINX 1%
  • Great stuff, all!! This tiny but knowledgeable sampling seems to follow a trend that I have started to subscribe to. Hanging on to some developed markets but looking to EM eq/bond as a postion to have a somewhat oversized "footprint" as compared to standard rec of positions of 5-10%. MACSX seems to be the ideal eq bund and PREMX with it's USdollar/local currency/corporates as a nice place to start for EM BOND funds. Greatly appreciate the mention of other funds to look at. Best.
  • Reply to @MikeM: i am at similar percentages to you, but i only wish ODVYX was available to retail fro Fidelity. are you getting in through the advisor?
  • Anyone mind giving out their age? I'm 47yo. I use the EM bonds to boost return vs the drag of low yield US debt. I still have a goodly chunk of that USdebt for stability but hope the EM bonds will generate more return with less volatility than equities.
  • edited July 2012
    Reply to @MikeM2: 30's. Had a very large allocation to EM debt, but sold it when EM debt funds started to take in huge inflows and new EM debt funds started popping up. I certainly left early, but I think there's certainly an element where people are desperate for yield that continues to power the asset class. Underlying fundamentals of EM countries are varying and while I think the long-term story is good, it is a volatile fixed income asset class (there was a great article a year or so ago about how illiquid some EM debt remains - particular institutional holders holding a very large amount of particular bond issues, etc - I wish I could find it), I'd be concerned if something causes investors to head for the exits again (which is the bet Marketfield is making against EM in general, it would appear.)

    I continue to hold a few EM funds (Matthews, as well as the new AQR fund and a little DEM), as well as a handful of individual EM equities (such as a long-term holding in Asian conglomerate Jardine Matheson.)
  • Reply to @fundalarm: No advisor. I'm able to get it through my TRP account.

    One caveat to that and I wouldn't know if Fidelity has the same problem, the TRP search application called Gateway does not show ODVYX available to buy. I've found other funds I've purchased that do not show in their search as available funds. So I was lucky. Another fund that didn't show up in their Gateway search was the Templeton Global bond fund, but it was there for purchase as FGBRX and I bought it. For the heck of it, maybe you should try and place an order for ODVYX to see what happens. Maybe Fidelity's search is as screwed up as TRP.
  • Reply to @MikeM: oh no. Fidelity recognizes the fund -- just doesn't allow to purchase it unless you're an RIA.
  • edited July 2012
    Reply to @MikeM2:
    Hi MikeM2 - hey, catchy name:) I'm 58 which would be why I may have a more conservative outlook on EM percentage.

    We seem to be inundated with the message that developing markets are the place to be going forward, but that comes with much greater risk and volatility, which at my age is not worth it- at least not to me. That's why I stick mostly to less volatile funds like MACSX for my EM exposure, and I'm happy to have found ODVYX from BobC's posts. ODVYX has shown to be a less volatile EM fund then say PRMSX, which I was using for my EM fund in the past.

    I'll stick with domestic funds for the bulk of my portfolio.
  • Reply to @fundalarm: what is RIA? My TRP account is through my 401k. Is that the same?
  • Reply to @MikeM: registered investment advisor. not for direct retail distribution. ... good for you, not for me. i can only purchase loaded shares with 1.70% ER -- which i will not.
  • Emerging markets make up 9.5% of MSCI or FTSE All Country Index. So, if you are targeting EM exposure 10% exposure will put you around the index weight.
  • Age: 58 in another week. My own risk tolerance is maybe in the upper end of moderate, which is where TRP locates PREMX on its own scale, and so with virtually half my stuff in PREMX, i'm not too nervous at all. (Famous last words, eh?) I've been in MACSX since 2003, but it does not grow much cuz that's the fund we raid for vacations and surprises.
  • I'm 63, fully retired, living comfortably on pensions and SS, no debt. Have investment accounts I don't need to touch. I believe EM is the future and have a fairly high risk tolerance.
  • edited July 2012
    Reply to @MikeM2: Yikes - for a sec there I thought you were discussing Einstein's theory, MM2 ... 66 here. Had a little EM but got swept up in an effort to consolidate & reduce fund creep. Do like international stuff as a long term hedge against dollar weakness. Several of my holds like OIBAX, RPSIX & TRRFX hold EM so let them make the call. Also, PRPFX holds foreign currencies - perhaps not the EM variety. Risk level is moderate to high when it comes to diversified equity & allocation funds. When you get off into sectors, the tolerance wanes, as it's too easy to lean right when ya ought be leaning left and thereby *#&!** yourself.

  • early 40s. no hope for either SS or a traditional pension, or any sort of inheritance. pay/job security correlated with stock market. my EME+EMD=12% is just enough for my risk profile.
  • For EM bond exposure I have been looking into PIMCO Emerging Markets Bond D symbol PEMDX, TCW Emerging Markets Local Currency Income Fund Class N symbol TGWNX or DoubleLine Emerging Markets Income Fund CL N symbol DLENX.

    All three seem to have similar durations and yields in the same ballpark. TGWNX has the most corporates at about 54% followed by government issues at 27%. PEMDX has about the same percentage of corporates and government issues and DLENX has mostly corporate bonds.

    At least by M*, TGWNX has the lowest ER at 0.99%, followed by DLENX at 1.20% and PEMDX at 1.25%.

    Any thoughts on the best way to go?

    Mona
  • Reply to @Mona: Hi Mona, just one thought on the DoubleLine fund: you can get the cheaper DBLEX shares if you buy the fund in an IRA with a $5k minimum versus $100k in a taxable account. The difference in E.R. is 0.3%, so IMHO definitely worth it.

    (Dblex/Dlenx is my only dedicated EM debt fund; I have Dblex in an IRA. It appears to be the most conservative actively-managed EM bond fund around.)
  • Just consider that the USD will be artificially overvalued vs. many currencies in the near-term at least. I'd prefer to own an EM bond fund denominated in both USA dollar and local currency, so that you have both toys to play with, rather than just the one. Those are good funds. Look at PREMX and FNMIX, too.
  • edited July 2012
    On the original topic, I have 40% of my small-ish stock/stock-correlated bond allocation (22% at this point, varies from 15%-40%) in EM stocks and bonds, all of which are in relatively conservative choices in the space. (Age 63, semi-retired, a fairly conservative investor, especially in the equity realm ...)

    However, as tempting as it looks, I'm wary of buying more EM debt right now, after looking at the bidding-up going on in EM bond CEFs. For example, TEI, the Templeton EM CEF, in the past 3 months has gone up in price by 8.75% and in NAV only 1.33%. The bandwagon may be getting a little crowded.
  • Howdy AndyJ,

    You noted: " For example, TEI, the Templeton EM CEF, in the past 3 months has gone up in price by 8.75% and in NAV only 1.33%. The bandwagon may be getting a little crowded."
    An excellent point with which to view an investment area that has a comparable CEF. The numbers you noted may be a telling story, at least near term.

    Thank you,
    Catch
  • Reply to @AndyJ: this is true for all fixed income/ yieldy CEFs. all my lev loans, preferreds, mortgage, muni CEFs went to premium in the last couple of months. i can't bring myself to add to any of them at this point.
  • Yes, I'm not adding to my EM bonds or equity funds for the time being. As always, the EM piece is already too big a piece of my pie. I'm letting divs and cap gains ride and grow. I'm semi-retired, which means I'm unemployed, having taken retirement early. But I ENJOY money coming to me for doing....ummmm... NOTHING! Yes!!!
  • Reply to @MaxBialystock: Hey Max, EM bonds & stocks in the mid-00s were where I've made the most $ ever in la vida without actually having to work for it. May that cycle repeat before I reach the nursing-home stage.
  • Reply to @AndyJ:
    I quite agree!!! Let's hope. But I fear a bubble. People who are late to the party are jumping into EM div. payers and EM bonds with both feet, looking for profits. Belgium and Germany 2-year notes carry a NEGATIVE yield?! That's just NUTS. The USA isn't much better, re: Treasuries. So, when a pile of $ comes my way which I'm expecting, I will add to MAPOX the $1,000.00 which will max-out my allowable IRA deductible contributions for the year, at $6.000.00. With the remainder, I'm considering MWTRX. But it's really getting almost TOO big...
  • But, do I want to buy into 156% turnover there at MWTRX? What do the rest of you think?
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