Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi guys! I did some buying lately....opened a position in UMBMX. It's a fund I owned back in 2013 and sold when I cut the number of funds I owned. Again, another small family fund. I'm starting to move away from index funds in the smaller stocks, as they seem to be struggling. I saw or heard that, in the R-2000, one third of the companies lose money. Someday, that will matter. Added to BTBFX. I consider this fund a core holding. Also added to FSPHX. Hoping its time in the woodshed is over. And, with all the storms, healthcare will be needed greatly. Also added to FUSVX. It's a small position that I will grow over time. Also, sold FDFAX. It was a short term play.....time to move on. Have started to add money because my thinking is Donnie and the Demo's cleaned the slate and the market can run a bit. Want to also add more money to Japan. It's the only QE left. I'm starting to see blue skies and sunshine.....hope it lasts. God bless the Pudd p.s. If this market starts to go down, you can thank me.
Bought some GSIHX and took some profits out of ABBV, but left half in. Its up over 40% since I bought it in February. If it falls more, will sell the rest and wait to see where it goes.
With the S&P 500 Index having some nice gains this week Old_Skeet's market barometer moved from a reading of 153 down to 145 which is still in fair value territory but only by 1 point. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Within the Index's sectors some of the big movers were XLF +18, XLP +10 & XLE +8 on the valuation scale. Within my global compass the big movers for the week were IJR +16, SDY +11 & MDY +10 on the valuation scale. Seems the smids and dividend payers were the big movers.
Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Hey Old_Skeet Thanks so much for the update... I'm curious...do you own an energy sector fund? I currently have very little energy exposure but am considering purchasing a fund.
Here is how I manage my sector weightings. First, I Xray my portfolio so that I have a good idea of how it is currently positioned. In addition, I strive to maintain certain allocation weightings within my sectors. In the minor sectors of materials, real estate, communications and utilities I strive to maintain at least a five percent weighting in each. Within the major sectors of consumer cyclical, financials, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive and health care I strive to maintain at least a nine percent weighting in each. This leaves about seventeen percent that can be moved around to overweight.
In the past, I have used some sector funds to overweight. Currently, I have moved towards some hybrid type funds that are very active with their sector alignments and positioning. Plus, I have three specialty and theme funds that focus on emerging markets, infrustructure and business development.
Sometimes, to achieve the sector weightings I am seeking I have to change the amounts held in some funds and make some adjustments within the sleeves as well. This is where Xray plays a key role. I feel it best to first know how the portfolio (sleeves and the funds themselves) Xray before tinkering with weightings. For instance, to increase my weighting in energy I'd look to funds that I already own that are heavy in energy and add to them while perhaps throttling back on some others. Since, I own mostly A share mutual funds position shifts can often be done through nav exchanges with little or no cost. In addition, by owning A share mutual funds I have no advisor or account wrap fees outside of what the funds charge. To cut down on the number of manual changes that I make myself I have over the past couple of years turned towards hybrid funds that are active with their positioning. Thus far this seems to be working as I have not used a sector fund to overweight in the past couple of years except for FRINX which is a mainstay holding.
Currently, my portfolio of mutual funds has a year-to-date return of about 10.5%. While its bogey the Lipper Balanced Index has returned 9.6% and a 50/50 Index portfolio of two funds (that I track) has returned 8.3%.
With this, there must be something good about my system that uses an investment compass (of which the market barometer is a part) to point the way along with my sleeve management and sector weighting system. In addition, I use Morningstar's portfolio manager.
Thanks again for your question for it provided me an opportunity to (again) address my critics. And, I hope it provided the answer you were seeking.
Hi guys! Catch22: Great chart! You're making me cry......lol. I thought DC would have done something.....especially drug pricing. Have added to PTIAX and GIBLX. Also looking at FSRFX. All trucks, planes and trains will be going south just when Christmas is coming. It's a short term play. Hope to be in early next week. God bless the Pudd
I have owned 2 closed end preferred funds ( PDT and FFC) in our IRA's with good low volatile returns over 6%. Just considering selling some or all to put into other diversified funds. Any comment on that move?
@Maurice, wow, can't argue with XSLV's performance. I noticed on M* that financial services + real estate are almost 50% of its holdings. Does that bother you? Not criticizing or even commenting, just wondering as I consider moving out of a long-term holding in this space with dreadful recent performance (BRUSX).
On Baseball ... The Durham Bulls are this season's Minor League National Champions defeating the Memphis Redbirds (this week) with a score of 5 to 3. This season they won their fifth Governors' Cup. Go, Bulls!
On the Markets ... This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 146 up one point from the previous week and remaining in the upper range of fair value and not far from a reading of overvalued. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. The three best performing sectors were Energy (XLE) with an improved technical score of +11, Financials (XLF) were at +9 and Industrials (XLI) came in at +5. In checking the short interest ratio (days to cover) for the 500 Index (SPY) I am finding that it is listed at 2.3 days. So the shorts could still get pounded in an extended bull run. Go bulls!
Within the global compass IJR leads with a reading of +9, MDY followed at +6 and EFA was at +5. With this it seems the smids and foreign equities were this weeks leaders. Go bulls!
Trailing comment ... I keep thinking, is anything going to slow this bull market down. In Washington health care is again on stage and it looks like Congress is going to kick "the can" once more on reform. North Korea is starting to rattle the cage of many with their threat to explode a H-Bomb in the Pacific to demostrate their might. And, on tax reform ... Where is it? Then, there are the effects of this season's hurricanes. And, the list continues as the FOMC is looking to raise interest rates. Go shorts?
My late father taught me that one of the signs of a real bull market is that it ignores "bad news." With this, it seems the bull still runs. And, for the Durham Bulls and for the markets (this week) it has been catch me if you can! Go Bulls!
Have a good weekend everyone ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
On Baseball ... The Durham Bulls are this season's Minor League National Champions defeating the Memphis Redbirds (this week) with a score of 5 to 3. This season they won their fifth Governors' Cup. Go, Bulls!
On the Markets ... This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 146 up one point from the previous week and remaining in the upper range of fair value and not far from a reading of overvalued. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. The three best performing sectors were Energy (XLE) with an improved technical score of +11, Financials (XLF) were at +9 and Industrials (XLI) came in at +5. In checking the short interest ratio (days to cover) for the 500 Index (SPY) I am finding that it is listed at 2.3 days. So the shorts could still get pounded in an extended bull run. Go bulls!
Within the global compass IJR leads with a reading of +9, MDY followed at +6 and EFA was at +5. With this it seems the smids and foreign equities were this weeks leaders. Go bulls!
Trailing comment ... I keep thinking, is anything going to slow this bull market down. In Washington health care is again on stage and it looks like Congress is going to kick "the can" once more on reform. North Korea is starting to rattle the cage of many with their threat to explode a H-Bomb in the Pacific to demostrate their might. And, on tax reform ... Where is it? Then, there are the effects of this season's hurricanes. And, the list continues as the FOMC is looking to raise interest rates. Go shorts?
My late father taught me that one of the signs of a real bull market is that it ignores "bad news." With this, it seems the bull still runs. And, for the Durham Bulls and for the markets (this week) it has been catch me if you can! Go Bulls!
Have a good weekend everyone ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Hi guys! Have opened a position in FSRFX and have added a second time to it. The Dukester is pushing to add more to it, and I might have to. This position will only last 'til the Santa rally hits. Then, it's a must sell. Have also added to FJSCX. I'm starting to see more talking heads recommend Japan now. So, if a lot of money starts to pour in, I will stop adding.....but not sell.... Have also added to UMBMX as I have no small caps in the portfolio now. I only have mid cap funds. I like to think of them as the all-stars of the small cap world. Here's where I will play the tax cuts should they happen. Also, the only index fund I own in the U.S. is FUSVX. Starting to go more with managed funds now from smaller houses....looking more for a margin of safety. Also, listened to a Fidelity webinar on healthcare. If I remember correctly (so don't hold me to this!), over the last 60 years, healthcare has returned about 12% per year. I have been patiently waiting to add as soon as the DC baboons move on to a new banana. One more thing before I go....the many who quietly play along at home..... I encourage you to ask questions about a fund or your portfolio, or maybe a board poster who you favor. Maybe, we could get a regular to post their portfolio and talk about it. This board will only be as good as you make it. The more questions, the better! God bless the Pudd
Old_Skeet’s market barometer finished the week down six points with a reading of 140 putting it in overvalued territory. It began the month with a reading of 152; and, with this, moved from the middle of fair value to just short of the middle of being overvalued on the scaling. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. So, for the month there was a twelve point movement, in the barometer, and although the Index gained in valuation (2472-2519) it lost some of its investment value from my new money investment perspective and mythology. I'm thinking this overvaluation should get worked off in the nearterm as earning season and reporting is soon to begin.
Within the Index, according to my technical strength matrix, currently the overbought sector etf’s are XLE, XLF & XLI. The overvalued sector etf’s are XLB & XLK. The fair value sector etf’s are XLP, XLRE & XLY. The undervalued sector etf’s are XLV & XLU. There are currently no oversold sector etf’s, at this time, in the matrix.
Within Old_Skeet’s global compass, according to my technical score matrix, currently the overbought etf’s are MDY & IJR. The overvalued etf’s are JNK, SDY, & SPY. The fair value etf’s are UUP, VT, IEV, EEM & CWB. The undervalued etf’s are AGG, IEF, AXJL & CEF. There are currently no oversold etf’s in the compass at this time.
For the month Old_Skeet did little buying (the exception being in a global hybrid fund) as most of the buying was done back during the summer when valuations (according to the market barometer and compass) were more favorable.
Looking back at the beginning of the month the compass matrix pointed out that the smids and dividend payers offered up opportunity. This came to pass as they are now scored overbought and overvalued respectively. With this, it is now back to a cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio as my funds make their distributions. This is not to say that the markets will not move upward (I sincerely hope they do); but, at this time, I am finding little opportunity to put new money to work. Perhaps, October will present some new money investment opportunity?
This concludes Old_Skeet's weekly market comments. However, future monthly comments are planned.
And, so-it-goes.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Additional comment: The short interest ratio (days to cover) for the S&P 500 Index etf SPY closed the month at 2.5 days to cover. This is up from the previous reporting of 2.3 days last week. Go, bulls ... so the shorts will have to cover.
Comments
I did some buying lately....opened a position in UMBMX. It's a fund I owned back in 2013 and sold when I cut the number of funds I owned. Again, another small family fund. I'm starting to move away from index funds in the smaller stocks, as they seem to be struggling. I saw or heard that, in the R-2000, one third of the companies lose money. Someday, that will matter. Added to BTBFX. I consider this fund a core holding. Also added to FSPHX. Hoping its time in the woodshed is over. And, with all the storms, healthcare will be needed greatly. Also added to FUSVX. It's a small position that I will grow over time. Also, sold FDFAX. It was a short term play.....time to move on. Have started to add money because my thinking is Donnie and the Demo's cleaned the slate and the market can run a bit. Want to also add more money to Japan. It's the only QE left. I'm starting to see blue skies and sunshine.....hope it lasts.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. If this market starts to go down, you can thank me.
Woodshed chart for FSPHX Jan., 2016 to date
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FSPHX&n=427&O=011000
sold some dseex
With the S&P 500 Index having some nice gains this week Old_Skeet's market barometer moved from a reading of 153 down to 145 which is still in fair value territory but only by 1 point. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Within the Index's sectors some of the big movers were XLF +18, XLP +10 & XLE +8 on the valuation scale. Within my global compass the big movers for the week were IJR +16, SDY +11 & MDY +10 on the valuation scale. Seems the smids and dividend payers were the big movers.
Have a great week ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Thanks so much for the update... I'm curious...do you own an energy sector fund? I currently have very little energy exposure but am considering purchasing a fund.
Thank you for your question.
Here is how I manage my sector weightings. First, I Xray my portfolio so that I have a good idea of how it is currently positioned. In addition, I strive to maintain certain allocation weightings within my sectors. In the minor sectors of materials, real estate, communications and utilities I strive to maintain at least a five percent weighting in each. Within the major sectors of consumer cyclical, financials, energy, industrials, technology, consumer defensive and health care I strive to maintain at least a nine percent weighting in each. This leaves about seventeen percent that can be moved around to overweight.
In the past, I have used some sector funds to overweight. Currently, I have moved towards some hybrid type funds that are very active with their sector alignments and positioning. Plus, I have three specialty and theme funds that focus on emerging markets, infrustructure and business development.
Sometimes, to achieve the sector weightings I am seeking I have to change the amounts held in some funds and make some adjustments within the sleeves as well. This is where Xray plays a key role. I feel it best to first know how the portfolio (sleeves and the funds themselves) Xray before tinkering with weightings. For instance, to increase my weighting in energy I'd look to funds that I already own that are heavy in energy and add to them while perhaps throttling back on some others. Since, I own mostly A share mutual funds position shifts can often be done through nav exchanges with little or no cost. In addition, by owning A share mutual funds I have no advisor or account wrap fees outside of what the funds charge. To cut down on the number of manual changes that I make myself I have over the past couple of years turned towards hybrid funds that are active with their positioning. Thus far this seems to be working as I have not used a sector fund to overweight in the past couple of years except for FRINX which is a mainstay holding.
Currently, my portfolio of mutual funds has a year-to-date return of about 10.5%. While its bogey the Lipper Balanced Index has returned 9.6% and a 50/50 Index portfolio of two funds (that I track) has returned 8.3%.
With this, there must be something good about my system that uses an investment compass (of which the market barometer is a part) to point the way along with my sleeve management and sector weighting system. In addition, I use Morningstar's portfolio manager.
Thanks again for your question for it provided me an opportunity to (again) address my critics. And, I hope it provided the answer you were seeking.
Old_Skeet
Catch22: Great chart! You're making me cry......lol.
I thought DC would have done something.....especially drug pricing. Have added to PTIAX and GIBLX. Also looking at FSRFX. All trucks, planes and trains will be going south just when Christmas is coming. It's a short term play. Hope to be in early next week.
God bless
the Pudd
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4061981-gm-2043-bond-yields-common-dividend
So many funds efts own this bond
37045VAF7 6.25% 10/02/2043 Corporate Bond
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
This week ... It seems the bulls still run!
On Baseball ... The Durham Bulls are this season's Minor League National Champions defeating the Memphis Redbirds (this week) with a score of 5 to 3. This season they won their fifth Governors' Cup. Go, Bulls!
On the Markets ... This week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 146 up one point from the previous week and remaining in the upper range of fair value and not far from a reading of overvalued. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. The three best performing sectors were Energy (XLE) with an improved technical score of +11, Financials (XLF) were at +9 and Industrials (XLI) came in at +5. In checking the short interest ratio (days to cover) for the 500 Index (SPY) I am finding that it is listed at 2.3 days. So the shorts could still get pounded in an extended bull run. Go bulls!
Within the global compass IJR leads with a reading of +9, MDY followed at +6 and EFA was at +5. With this it seems the smids and foreign equities were this weeks leaders. Go bulls!
Trailing comment ... I keep thinking, is anything going to slow this bull market down. In Washington health care is again on stage and it looks like Congress is going to kick "the can" once more on reform. North Korea is starting to rattle the cage of many with their threat to explode a H-Bomb in the Pacific to demostrate their might. And, on tax reform ... Where is it? Then, there are the effects of this season's hurricanes. And, the list continues as the FOMC is looking to raise interest rates. Go shorts?
My late father taught me that one of the signs of a real bull market is that it ignores "bad news." With this, it seems the bull still runs. And, for the Durham Bulls and for the markets (this week) it has been catch me if you can! Go Bulls!
Have a good weekend everyone ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
A little history on the Governors Cup:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governors'_Cup
Lollygaggers. LOL.
Your last name, by chance, would it be Davis? Make that ... Crash Davis?
"Why are you shaking me off?"
Old_Skeet
Have opened a position in FSRFX and have added a second time to it. The Dukester is pushing to add more to it, and I might have to. This position will only last 'til the Santa rally hits. Then, it's a must sell. Have also added to FJSCX. I'm starting to see more talking heads recommend Japan now. So, if a lot of money starts to pour in, I will stop adding.....but not sell....
Have also added to UMBMX as I have no small caps in the portfolio now. I only have mid cap funds. I like to think of them as the all-stars of the small cap world. Here's where I will play the tax cuts should they happen. Also, the only index fund I own in the U.S. is FUSVX. Starting to go more with managed funds now from smaller houses....looking more for a margin of safety. Also, listened to a Fidelity webinar on healthcare. If I remember correctly (so don't hold me to this!), over the last 60 years, healthcare has returned about 12% per year. I have been patiently waiting to add as soon as the DC baboons move on to a new banana.
One more thing before I go....the many who quietly play along at home..... I encourage you to ask questions about a fund or your portfolio, or maybe a board poster who you favor. Maybe, we could get a regular to post their portfolio and talk about it. This board will only be as good as you make it. The more questions, the better!
God bless
the Pudd
Old_Skeet’s market barometer finished the week down six points with a reading of 140 putting it in overvalued territory. It began the month with a reading of 152; and, with this, moved from the middle of fair value to just short of the middle of being overvalued on the scaling. Generally, a higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. So, for the month there was a twelve point movement, in the barometer, and although the Index gained in valuation (2472-2519) it lost some of its investment value from my new money investment perspective and mythology. I'm thinking this overvaluation should get worked off in the nearterm as earning season and reporting is soon to begin.
Within the Index, according to my technical strength matrix, currently the overbought sector etf’s are XLE, XLF & XLI. The overvalued sector etf’s are XLB & XLK. The fair value sector etf’s are XLP, XLRE & XLY. The undervalued sector etf’s are XLV & XLU. There are currently no oversold sector etf’s, at this time, in the matrix.
Within Old_Skeet’s global compass, according to my technical score matrix, currently the overbought etf’s are MDY & IJR. The overvalued etf’s are JNK, SDY, & SPY. The fair value etf’s are UUP, VT, IEV, EEM & CWB. The undervalued etf’s are AGG, IEF, AXJL & CEF. There are currently no oversold etf’s in the compass at this time.
For the month Old_Skeet did little buying (the exception being in a global hybrid fund) as most of the buying was done back during the summer when valuations (according to the market barometer and compass) were more favorable.
Looking back at the beginning of the month the compass matrix pointed out that the smids and dividend payers offered up opportunity. This came to pass as they are now scored overbought and overvalued respectively. With this, it is now back to a cash build mode within my mutual fund portfolio as my funds make their distributions. This is not to say that the markets will not move upward (I sincerely hope they do); but, at this time, I am finding little opportunity to put new money to work. Perhaps, October will present some new money investment opportunity?
This concludes Old_Skeet's weekly market comments. However, future monthly comments are planned.
And, so-it-goes.
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Additional comment: The short interest ratio (days to cover) for the S&P 500 Index etf SPY closed the month at 2.5 days to cover. This is up from the previous reporting of 2.3 days last week. Go, bulls ... so the shorts will have to cover.