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How Many Funds Do You Really Need To Diversify?

FYI: Q: I have seven mutual funds in my retirement savings account that invest in a broad range of stocks (large, mid-, small-caps, domestic and international) and bonds, plus real estate and gold. I'm now looking to add an eighth fund or ETF to my portfolio. Any recommendations?

A: I'm sure there are people out there who would be more than willing to point to all sorts of funds and ETFs you could add to your portfolio: smart beta funds, thematic ETFs, low volatility funds. There's even an ETF designed to capitalize on the ETF industry itself.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fidelity.com/insights/retirement/how-many-funds-to-diversify

Comments

  • Investment asset diverfication is one thing while manager risk is another. So, the real question might have been ... How many funds do you need to diverisy your manager risk within an asset category? My thinking is three per asset category you choose to invest in.
  • edited July 2017
    Agree with Ol'Skeet's thinking here. Manager diversification and asset diversification are two different things to look at.

    Geez - What a dumb question (as worded). Almost by definition, I'd say the correct answer is: 2
    However, you might correctly answer 1, since all mutual funds diversify their holdings to some degree.

    Wonder who comes up with these headers. Maybe a computer?
  • I think the amount of money to be invested impacts the number of funds as well. Personally, I wouldn't want to invest $1 million in just two funds. I'm sure there are investors who are comfortable with that. I'm not one of them. If it were $25G, I would be fine with two funds. For my own piece of mind, I would spread the wealth around with a high value.
  • ... How many funds do you need to diverisy your manager risk within an asset category? My thinking is three per asset category you choose to invest in.
    Or another answer might be 1 index fund if the goal is to take out manager risk.

    My thinking is any benefit a good manager might bring to the table, and I think there are good manager/teams that do, is diluted at best and offset at worst by combining different management styles in the same asset class. The resulting 'average' of multiple funds, by my thinking, would have little chance of beating the corresponding index benchmark.

    FWIW, I use mostly managed funds in my self-managed portfolio. I just think it is counter productive to research and purchase a fund with management you are willing to spend money on and then hedge their ability by mixing that fund with 3 or 4 other styles. (I also know this might be a minority opinion on this board).

    Different strokes for different folks. It will always come down to ones investing comfort.
  • edited July 2017
    I lean towards the elder skeet, in order to eliminate risk of management failure. As an example in the mid-cap space, I love POAGX, but not with all my money given the Primecap team's big sector bets. Aligned with RPMGX and VETAX, I think I'm good.
  • @PRESSmUP , that is a great mix of midcaps no doubt. My point, if you built a simpler portfolio and you had only one of those midcaps, which would it be? POAGX you said you love so I'm guessing that one. So if you had conviction in your best choice, you would have returned almost 11% more over the last year and almost 2% per year over the last 3 years by not over-loading with multiple midcap funds (%'s base on an equal distribution between the 3). So I guess you proved my point. But again, the comfort - sleep well factor is very important also even if return may be lower. I'm not questioning that.
  • MikeM : It worked looking back 3 years, but will the results look the same going to the future?
    Derf
  • Looking at a total return graph comparing POAGX, RPMGX and VETAX on M* I fail to see the benefit of holding VETAX. It appears to track RPMGX like a shadow (or vice versa) so what benefit is being gained other than perceived manager diversification?

    I think the question is more how many funds do you 'want' in order to feel comfortable about your portfolio rather than how many do you 'need'. Investing is way more psychological than it should be sometimes.
  • edited July 2017
    Mark said:

    I think the question is more how many funds do you 'want' in order to feel comfortable about your portfolio ...

    Mark's comment got me thinking about the multiple redundant systems used on aircraft. I suspect some of that same type of thinking goes into portfolio construction by many.

    A few excerpts from an article on the subject:

    - A 747 can take off with two out of four engines out. A 737, 757, 767 and 777 can take off with one out of two engines out. A 727 can take off with two out of three engines out at sea level ...

    - The 777 flight critical systems are quadruply redundant. There are 4 flight management computers, located in different parts of the airplane (so a collision will not take out all of the electronics). If the flight management computer system fails catastrophically, then the pilot can still use the autopilot to fly. If the autopilot fails, the pilot can still fly the airplane by hand.

    - The 747 has 4 main landing gear struts. The 777 has 6 wheels on each main landing gear and has redundant structural elements controlling the main gear.

    - The 747 has a quadruple redundant hydraulics. The DC-10 has triple redundant hydraulics. Why 4 instead of 3? It was a design decision back in the late sixties. But.... one day, a 747 took off from San Francisco airport and struck a light tower at the end of the runway. That took out three of the four hydraulic systems. The pilot was able to fly the airplane over the pacific, dump fuel, and return to the airport safely. This is not to disparage the DC-10, which is a fine airplane. But the 747 is better.

    - The new airplanes have only two engines. But they also have a little gizmo called a Ram Air Turbine, or RAT. If the airplane should lose both engines in flight, the RAT will pop out of the belly of the airplane and power the electronics and hydraulics long enough for the pilot to make a dead-stick landing.

    - The 777 has multiply redundant navigation systems. It has a strapdown inertial navigation system, which can measure acceleration and rotation yet it has no moving parts, so it can navigate without any outside reference. It also has a Global Positioning System receiver so it can navigate via satellite. It has the usual compliment of Automatic Direction Finders (ADF), Visual Omnidirection Range (VOR), and glide slope receivers, so it can navigate via radio. And finally, the pilot can always get on the radio and ask "where the hell am I?" ...

    http://www.commercialventvac.com/fear.html

    Note that what you need to fly isn't necessarily the same as what you need to fly comfortably and safely.
    -

    Article doesn't mention reserve fuel. By law aircraft need to carry enough to be able to divert to an acceptable alternative airport and than circle that airport for 30 minutes. I've heard there's a bit of a tug of war between pilots who like to "top-off" their tanks beyond that requirement with a few extra tons "just in case" and airlines who discourage the practice because carrying the additional weight is costly. Your cash might represent that extra "topping-off". Expensive to carry ... Under some circumstances, priceless.
  • @hank - "And finally, the pilot can always get on the radio and ask "where the hell am I?" ... "

    I've been asking this question for years
  • Old_Skeet said:

    Investment asset diverfication is one thing while manager risk is another. So, the real question might have been ... How many funds do you need to diverisy your manager risk within an asset category? My thinking is three per asset category you choose to invest in.

    Isn't the point of investing with an active manager to take the manager risk?? Diversifying that away doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me...
  • edited July 2017
    Mark said:

    Looking at a total return graph comparing POAGX, RPMGX and VETAX on M* I fail to see the benefit of holding VETAX. It appears to track RPMGX like a shadow (or vice versa) so what benefit is being gained other than perceived manager diversification?

    Thanks for the comment Mark. I'm quite sure that the folks at Victory Funds would be very pleased at the performance comparison with Brian Berghuis and the TRP Mid-Cap team. RPMGX is my single biggest holding, residing in both a taxable and IRA accounts.

    You are absolutely correct in that their aggregate performance over 3, 5 and 10 year timelines are very similar. However, their performance by year varies dramatically...evidenced by the 2016 performance of RPMGX at 6.3%, versus VETAX at 20.66%. This variability works in my favor I believe, given how I manage my withdrawals.

    A portfolio comparison shows very little overlap...perhaps explained by the AUM difference.

    All in all...I think having 3 good management teams in one space is a good thing...IMHO.
  • edited July 2017
    depending on what?
  • well, on what you want to hold with the aim to diversify, what your decorrelation beliefs are, etc.:

    https://www.blackrock.com/investing/literature/product-brief/ishares-core-allocation-etfs-product-brief-en-us.pdf

    10 "holdings", comprising 7600 stocks and bonds in different grouping proportions.
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