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Not only do I find it odd that people still consider the rating agencies to be honest and relevant, but also I find it even odder that no one knows the health of the banks without the same rating agencies telling them.
Well, see, there's secrets that everyone knows (examples: the gov't "Inflation Index" is adjusted to reflect the Martian economy; the price of oil is rigged).
Then there's secrets that only some people know (examples: stay away from the Facebook IPO; stay away from most banks).
Then there's the secrets that nobody knows (example: what is the minimum IQ required to be elected to the US Congress?)
Reply to @Old_Joe: Realizing that IQ is in some sense a measure of acquired knowledge, I was going to say zero, since embryos (who haven't yet acquired knowledge) are people. But then I remembered that the Constitution says that representatives must be at least 25 years old (senators 30).
But then I remembered that a lot of people "know" that we can ignore Constitutional requirements - isn't the president a Kenyan?
So I guess that gets me back to my original answer - zero.
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Then there are corporations (more legal people, and lots over 25 years old), but don't get me started on that ... (just how intelligent are some of these banks - perhaps Citibank, at 200, has reached senility?)
I went largely to cash 2 weeks ago as even more ghouls started coming out of closets the world over. Equities have sold off every summer since 2007 (except for 2009), seems like a pattern to me.
I'm with you, youngster. Lightened up in February and March, took profits from Jan/Feb and ran with the money. Glad I did... just looking at the overall world financial situation back then didn't look especially promising. Kenster is quite right though- keep your eyes open for a selective buying opportunity- there are still a lot of great companies out there. FWIW, I'm looking for some sort of resolution of the Euro situation as a buy signal. Now, "resolution" most likely will not mean "all-fixed", but maybe at least a leveling-off of the major unknowns/pessimism factors- I don't think that we're likely to see "all-fixed" for many years yet.
Reply to @msf: Since corporations are now considered people thanks to Supreme Court decision, they should themselves be allowed to be elected to congress. A company that is 25 years old can be a representative and one that is 30 years old could be senator.
Same here. I was tempted to buy some IVV couple of days back, as the momentum was beginning to change, but the volume was petering out as it approached a resistance. I was ready to pull the trigger if it broke the resistance with good volume. Still in BOND in my tax-sheltered account since end of April.
Reply to @johnN: I don't know about that, but someone did make the semi-interesting point that in 2008, oil came down in the Summer, then stocks came down in the Fall. Either way, oil falling around $35-40 is not a good indicator and while gas has come down, it's still pretty damn high in many areas - as I've said in other threads, people were pissed when it was $4 a gallon and $150 a barrel in 2008, now it's high $3's in many areas and around $80.
Right and look what happened --- Morgan Stanley was downgraded yesterday and after-hours it was trading up just over 3%. Now at the pre-open today it's up over 3.5%. JPM and BAC and others were also up after-hours.
Why? Because the pros saw this as a good thing whereas the rest of the market had a knee-jerk reaction. The pros were expecting a downgrade for some time now! It finally came and they were wondering what took so long for the downgrade to occur. It was not a damn, wow shocking event. It was like when you were a little kid with that nagging loose tooth for months and one-day it finally falls out.
The shares are up because the market-causing knee-jerk reaction is over (at least this one for now). The short-term traders and I guess even trading computers too pressured the uptick after-hours & pre-open trading hours.
Even Dr. Doom & Gloom (Marc Faber) is starting to see some compelling opportunities in some European companies. Doesn't mean you have to take a big bite now but starting to sniff around and smell the blood. Even Steve Romick's FPACX, as of March 31, had 17.8% in European companies.
Comments
Then there's secrets that only some people know (examples: stay away from the Facebook IPO; stay away from most banks).
Then there's the secrets that nobody knows (example: what is the minimum IQ required to be elected to the US Congress?)
In fact - I can't wait for Santander Bank in Spain to crash even further to create even more delicious deeply discounted opportunities.
Realizing that IQ is in some sense a measure of acquired knowledge, I was going to say zero, since embryos (who haven't yet acquired knowledge) are people. But then I remembered that the Constitution says that representatives must be at least 25 years old (senators 30).
But then I remembered that a lot of people "know" that we can ignore Constitutional requirements - isn't the president a Kenyan?
So I guess that gets me back to my original answer - zero.
--------------
Then there are corporations (more legal people, and lots over 25 years old), but don't get me started on that ... (just how intelligent are some of these banks - perhaps Citibank, at 200, has reached senility?)
On the plus side: they will be able to save a ton of money on lobbyists, and I'm sure that they'll pass on those savings to us consumers.
Why? Because the pros saw this as a good thing whereas the rest of the market had a knee-jerk reaction. The pros were expecting a downgrade for some time now! It finally came and they were wondering what took so long for the downgrade to occur. It was not a damn, wow shocking event. It was like when you were a little kid with that nagging loose tooth for months and one-day it finally falls out.
The shares are up because the market-causing knee-jerk reaction is over (at least this one for now). The short-term traders and I guess even trading computers too pressured the uptick after-hours & pre-open trading hours.
Even Dr. Doom & Gloom (Marc Faber) is starting to see some compelling opportunities in some European companies. Doesn't mean you have to take a big bite now but starting to sniff around and smell the blood. Even Steve Romick's FPACX, as of March 31, had 17.8% in European companies.