With June now here Old_Skeet has throttled (rebalanced) to his summer asset allocation by reducing equities and raising cash in the process along with expanding his base in asset allocation funds. This was done based on a seasonal investment strategy where I generally load equities in the fall, winter and begin to lighten up in my equity positions come spring. Those that have followed my post know that I do this in a process and not all at once. In addition, I use my market barometer to assist me in setting my equity allocation. The barometer reading peaked in March as new market highs were reached in the S&P 500 Index and has been softening since then. The breath feed in the barometer indicates the number of stocks above their 200 moving average has been in decline for a couple of months. However, no buy signal has yet been generated by the barometer. Some of my investment buddies that follow the big money crowd have noticed they are moving into energy. I think this is worth watching as I am currently overweight in energy at this time. Generally, I strive to maintain at least a five percent weighting in the minority sectors and a nine percent weighting in the majority sectors leaving seventeen percent that can be moved around with no sector being greater than fifteen percent. No doubt, tech has been the big dog of recent but just how much higher can it go? Perhaps, through the summer and as we move into fall a new leader(s) will emerge.
Another concern that I have with this market is that big money has it leveraged up and when they cut and run ... Well, we are in for a big pullback that could lead into a correction.
I am still with my market call (made at the first part of the year) that the S&P 500 Index will reach 2475 (or thereabouts) sometime during 2017.
For me, it is time to take a break and enjoy summer.
I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Comments
Ol' Skeet - A good idea labeling these seasonally. Four per-year seems about right. Maybe somebody can assemble the Highlights from the different seasons in a year-end summary. Sure to make great reading.
Sorry guys ... no great new ideas here. But watch your backs.
http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/gltr/quote.html
already added FRIFX in another account, from PONDX (rollover)
sold some PDI for cashflow
I need to figure out how to use my models on international funds. Don't have dang data. If you are simply using charts, moving averages, would you mind sharing? I actually make calculations using excel and don't use charts (except to decide when to run my models so I don't do it every single day).
Only a few minor changes from previous posts with my two largest holdings IOFIX and PONDX. I also have PYMDX and IVHIX.
Unfortunately T-line is too much trading and more whipsaws. For stocks maybe, not sure I could use it for funds.
I would say it is all relative.
VFINX 9.84% YTD
IOFIX 6.09% YTD
PONDX 4.66% YTD
But look at the SD on PONDX and I assume it is also less than half of VFINX.
Is there anyone on MFO who does *not* own PONDX besides me? Seems to me it is the Firsthand Technology Value (sic) fund of technology for bond holders.
Someone let me know when it crashes and burns so I can buy.
Derf
Relative to other bond funds of all flavors; PIMIX PONDX shine brightly. 10 year annualized total return is just shy of 9%. Hell, these funds run over many equity funds of many flavors for the 10 year period. The alts, long-shorts and similar are NOT worth the effort (from what I see) since the melt.
This MFO link might help explain a few things; but my overwhelming "tip of the hat" goes to the managers. If either leave, I would have to have a very hard look at returns after the fact.
http://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/3541/pondx-how-does-it-work
Now, as to buying on a dip; well this chart shows that this is possible, but would be very, very difficult. To my knowledge, there are few charts that reflect this funds upward path. A technical aspect is that the Relative Strength Index of this fund exceeds 90 many times and for fairly long periods, including right now. For the straight techies, this is a sell signal, big time. High numerical RSI doesn't seem to be of consequence for this fund.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?PONDX&n=2560&O=011000
Take care,
Catch
I'm reminded of a Christmas gift suggestion Louis Rukeyser once showed off on his program. A wooden doll or dummy which would say "Buy low. Sell High" when you pulled its string. Very funny. If only it were that easy!
Looked all over the web but can't find the danged thing.
Regards
Hey, slick! You can post your changes for me. I'd like to see them and why. Have added to FJSCX. Just saw some articles about Japan.....how things are turning....quiet! Don't tell! Also opened a small position in PTIAX again. Sold out of it in the pivot. Also sold out of all pivot positions except the S&P. As of now, all 13 positions in the 401 are pegged at their 52-week high. I missed my opening on VWINX. It's pegged also.
I have been fooling around with a portfolio mix on the back testing website. It goes like this:
PONDX - 40%
VWINX - 20%
FUSVX - 20%
GLFOX - 10%
FSPHX - 10%
It's just a kick around right now.
God bless
the Pudd
MMUIX, BX, and ITA and paid off my mortgage, had profits in all but BX
XLP and added proceeds to RHS was had done better over 3 years
Sold RYU and added proceeds to VPU
HIEMX which I could not add to at Fido and bought SFGIX as replacement
PJP Sold half , had high profit but pure pharma hitting a snag
Sold OSTIX and PFBPX in favor of PONDX
Sold NXPI, being bought by Qualcom
Bought:
Added PYACX, CPXAX, PONDX to retirement portfolio, was too low in bonds
I sold LUV today, runup of 60% over 2 years
One tactic I have used to get into closed funds is convert two funds from my traditional ira (which I had at Fido for a year) to a roth prior to transferring the roth and taxable accounts from ML to establish a position, then added more once the rest of the roth was transferred. Did this with FMIJX, SFGIX after they closed. I am keeping some of my institutional funds I had at ML, just can't add to them, but can buy the retail shares if I want more on some of them.
In lieu of the normal and customary suspects, I've been looking at PBCT. It's a mid-level regional bank with what appears to be a good foundation, a 4%+ divi, and represents a good value at current prices along with the upside of a buyout as goes with all regional banks.
It seems like a good candidate for a starting position.