That's the view of John Hussman, president of the mutual fund Hussman Investment Trust, seasoned investor, and Stanford University economics PhD. Hussman says you can expect the S&P 500 to return no more than 1% on average over the next decade. Sooner than that, he predicts, the stock market may plunge as much as 60%.
Hussman,
who once managed a nearly $7 billion mutual fund, calls the current environment “the most broadly overvalued moment in market history." And he says investors shouldn't expect much in returns from stocks or bonds.
http://fortune.com/2017/03/09/stock-market-sell-bubble/
Comments
Don't know. The way "things" are running in D.C.-land, the only thing I will predict is that there won't be much action on a health or tax bill in the near future.
Apparently, the big money doesn't really care about other circumstances as long as the financial institutions appear to be above the safe water zone and/or will be covered in another crisis situation.
The markets? Don't know. But we got a ton in cash and short-term paper. What's that old song - Ya can't roller-skate through a buffalo herd ?
Regards
Buffalo??
Regards,
Ted
P.S. HSGFX 1-15 year performance in the 100 percentile. That a boy John !
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=HSGFX®ion=usa&culture=en_US
Your thesis can be correct, but unless everyone else agrees, market is not going to move in the direction you think it should. Hussman's real problem is implementation. He can't even hedge properly. I mean he hedges worse than man off the street.
Every year, I keep selling little not wanting to sell it all, thinking as soon as I sell he will start outperforming. Oh well, at least HSTRX has not done too bad.
PS - Notice "famed investor". I was thinking Hussman I can invite to dinner but not Bill Miller. Now I wonder...
Thanks for sharing. Enjoy your posts. Good luck.
As the Geico guy says, 15 minutes ago.
But seriously, I owned this fund in the 2007-2009, maybe 2010 range. I sold it because I was tired of reading the same old doom and gloom commentaries as the market was taking off. It was easy to see the guy was out of step and his ego was in the way of adjusting.
The best thing I ended up with from owning this fund was to realize, at least for me, owning long/short funds in general is a waste of portfolio space. If you want conservative uncorrelated assets to reduce risk in your portfolio than conservative balanced funds or even bonds or cash is the way to go. That was my learning and this is my 2-cents.