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With U.S. markets hitting all time highs, I'm curious if you are sitting and waiting for a sell-off or putting new money to work? I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income or investing in an international fund such as EFA.
The markets are up about 8% since the Brexit low, we're lucky to get a gain of 10% for an entire year. We're obviously at the high end of our 2 year trading range, so I'm holding onto my dry powder for now.
The markets are up about 8% since the Brexit low, we're lucky to get a gain of 10% for an entire year. We're obviously at the high end of our 2 year trading range, so I'm holding onto my dry powder for now.
Not much talk about that trading range but there it is.
Until I feel the need to put my remaining cash to work in drips-n-drabs (or agree to move my desired purchase prices higher on things I want to buy/add to), I'll research the purchase of single malts from Speyside or the Northern Islands instead.
@rforno- Some of the larger Costco stores have a bit of decent Speyside. Seems to vary by store location- for example, the Costco here is SF doesn't have all that much but the one just north in Marin County has some interesting stuff.
Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocatin strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Good job Old_Skeet. And nice post. Always good to read your posts.
Why does nobody seem to me concerned about interest rate risk these days? Do we just feel that QE will continue on forever? I get that yield is hard to find, but are you really getting an appropriate return given the risk?
Why does nobody seem to me concerned about interest rate risk these days?
The new lows in T's, below the old 2012 lows, should spark a little concern at least. Maybe it's the talk about negative sovereign rates elsewhere leading foreign investors to pile in that's mitigating concerns, but I've yet to see convincing statistics that the foreign component of recent buying is that big a factor.
I haven't done much buying or selling lately, but yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk. I do still own a lot of munis, some of them with plenty of duration, though - just trying to do a little risk balancing in fixed income.
I sold my longest duration investment grade (BAB and BLV) too early to catch all the recent runup.
Although I have been buying during pullbacks I have been adding to certain existing positions in the growth and income area and when it is time to trim my allocation to equities (rebalance) I have been trimming in funds found in the growth area of the portfolio.
Within my portfolio's asset allocation my equity allocation ranges form a low of 45% to a high of 55% and is determined by a valuation matrix which is currently calling for equities to be set at their low range of 45%; and, with this, I have no spiff positions.
@MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns: http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
@MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns: http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Thanks to each of you for sharing your strategies. I always learn a great deal from the wonderful members of this board... thanks so much for the detailed posts... You also help me hold in check some of my animal instincts...
@AndyJ said ...yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk Good call Andy.My only holding in the space down 2.25 % today https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:OIA&ei=9TuIV8m9N8PCmAGIzqfgBw
Reviewing Jeremy Grantham's Mid May remarks. This relative optimism was an unusual position for me and the snapback in these markets has validated, to a modest degree, my thinking at the time. I still believe the following: 1) that we did not then, and do not today, have the necessary conditions to say that today’s world has a bubble in any of the most important asset classes; 2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer; and 5) the U.S. housing market, although well below 2006 highs, is nonetheless approaching a one and onehalf-sigma level based on its previous history. Given the intensity of the pain we felt so recently, we might expect that such a bubble would be psychologically impossible, but the data in Exhibit 1 speaks for itself. This is a classic echo bubble – i.e., driven partly by the feeling that the substantially higher prices in 2006 (with its three-sigma bubble) somehow justify today’s merely one and one-half-sigma prices. Prices have been rising rapidly recently and at this rate will reach one and three-quarterssigma this summer. Thus, unlikely as it may sound, in 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices – much more dangerous than inflated stock prices in my opinion – might beat the U.S. equity market in the race to cause the next financial crisis. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3973997-always-cry-spilt-milk
Thanks for the news on the PTIAX site, TSP-T; didn't realize they'd spiffed it up.
It took me a while (slow learner sometimes) to figure out that an appropriate combo of Pim Income & Perf Trust Strategic could roughly balance out to neutral rate risk with a yield of ~ 5%. That means a fair chunk of mortgages, but P-Income has been trending toward a lower mtg concentration, and I think the sector concentration risk is relatively limited for the size of the combined yield.
Recently started a position in HDS, a spinoff from Home Depot a couple of years ago. Started the position the day after Brexit when everything was down, its all domestic, so thought it was a good entry point. Most likely will be a trading stock, but we'll see how it works out.
@expatsp. I'll echo PRESSmUP regarding FNMA decision. And, Sears Holdings/Seritage, BAC, AIG. BB has not talked much about the Valeant stake ... appeared to buy late last year. Cheer you up? Hmmm. FAAFX up 3.9% for year. Not bad. (Let's not mention VBINX up 6.5%.) Hey, beaten down value investors are in good company these days. Don't think BB has changed stripes, although perception from Fairholme investors certainly has. Believe BB still owns nearly half of FAAFX. Hope all is well. c
@Charles and Press - with FNMA at just 6-7% of the fund holdings how big of an impact are you expecting/anticipating from even a positive decision? Also didn't the fund have quite a larger percentage of assets in this holding at the start of this dispute? If so one might question why its been sold down. Just curious.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Speyside_single_malt
At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
And nice post.
Always good to read your posts.
I haven't done much buying or selling lately, but yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk. I do still own a lot of munis, some of them with plenty of duration, though - just trying to do a little risk balancing in fixed income.
I sold my longest duration investment grade (BAB and BLV) too early to catch all the recent runup.
Thanks for the question.
Although I have been buying during pullbacks I have been adding to certain existing positions in the growth and income area and when it is time to trim my allocation to equities (rebalance) I have been trimming in funds found in the growth area of the portfolio.
Within my portfolio's asset allocation my equity allocation ranges form a low of 45% to a high of 55% and is determined by a valuation matrix which is currently calling for equities to be set at their low range of 45%; and, with this, I have no spiff positions.
http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
Good call Andy.My only holding in the space down 2.25 % today
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:OIA&ei=9TuIV8m9N8PCmAGIzqfgBw
PTIAX has re-done it's web site.Good comparison to the big boys and where it differentiates here
http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptam-difference_ptiax_final.pdf
New fact sheet here
http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
Reviewing Jeremy Grantham's Mid May remarks.
This relative optimism was an unusual position for me and the snapback in these markets has validated, to a modest degree, my thinking at the time. I still believe the following: 1) that we did not then, and do not today, have the necessary conditions to say that today’s world has a bubble in any of the most important asset classes; 2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer; and 5) the U.S. housing market, although well below 2006 highs, is nonetheless approaching a one and onehalf-sigma level based on its previous history. Given the intensity of the pain we felt so recently, we might expect that such a bubble would be psychologically impossible, but the data in Exhibit 1 speaks for itself. This is a classic echo bubble – i.e., driven partly by the feeling that the substantially higher prices in 2006 (with its three-sigma bubble) somehow justify today’s merely one and one-half-sigma prices. Prices have been rising rapidly recently and at this rate will reach one and three-quarterssigma this summer. Thus, unlikely as it may sound, in 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices – much more dangerous than inflated stock prices in my opinion – might beat the U.S. equity market in the race to cause the next financial crisis.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3973997-always-cry-spilt-milk
It took me a while (slow learner sometimes) to figure out that an appropriate combo of Pim Income & Perf Trust Strategic could roughly balance out to neutral rate risk with a yield of ~ 5%. That means a fair chunk of mortgages, but P-Income has been trending toward a lower mtg concentration, and I think the sector concentration risk is relatively limited for the size of the combined yield.
Had to sell OAK back in Feb/March with roll-over of my 401. Left proceeds in cash.
Sold HCP this week with departure of Lauralee E. Martin. I've basically owned the stock her entire tenure. Left proceeds in cash.
Remain heavy long-time holdings: BAC, AIG, AA, FAAFX and SIGIX.
c