Not sure what others might be doing or thinking; but, I thought I'd post what I have now begun to do.
I have now started to pare equities back within my portfolio as I was a buyer in equities during the recent selling stampede. Now, with their rebound over the past month or so I have become overweight in equities and above my target allocation to them. In addition, I feel equities as measured by the S&P 500 Index currently with a TTM P/E Ratio at 23.6 are richly priced and thus a rebalance was warranted in part just based upon their valuation plus I was overweight in them.
If equities continue their upward run and if earnings fail to catch up with valuation thus reducing their TTM P/E Ratio then I may sell some more off before summer arrives again reducing my allocation to equities and raising my allocation to cash while I await the next stock market pullback.
For those that would like to read what Jeffrey Saut has to say on the subject "Buying Stampede" I have provided a link to his weekly commentary below.
http://www.raymondjames.com/pointofview/ian-mcavityI wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Comments
Thank you for your question.
My current allocation to equities ranges between a low of 45% to a high of 55% with the target weighting set at 50%. I was at about a 53% weighting when I started to trim based upon elevated equity valuations and also since I was above my traget weighting. Currently, I am at about 51% equity.
I hope this insight helps.
Old_Skeet
I'm still riding SQM and XOM but the big fun is with my momentum play in the junior silver miners. My big dog is Silvercorp SVMLF with side bets on EXK and AG.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?nosettings=1&symb=svmlf&uf=0&type=64&size=2&sid=0&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=6&rand=1159&compidx=aaaaa:0&comp=ag+exk&ma=0&maval=9&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&height=0&width=0&mocktick=1
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
I believe I have asked you this question before, but was hoping you could help me re-remember.
As you move in and out of these managed funds aren't you "managing the manager's" decisions to do exactly what you are attempting to doing...raising cash...de-risking...re-risking. Isn't the job of the manager of your funds (part of what you pay them for) to do exactly what you are doing?
Re-allocating back to a target is one way of adding performance to a portfolio's target performance so I appreciate that part of your portfolio maintenance, but I guess my main question is:
Do you attempt to find fund managers who can manage your funds through shorter periods of the market while you make a few portfolio reallocation decisions over longer periods?
I guess all of this work on your behalf has come with a fair amount of success so I'm not trying to be dismissive of your strategy, but as one poster mentioned in a different thread:
"...we all need to think about simplifying our portfolio decision making as we age."
I have been attempting to find fund managers who make allocation decisions for me (PRWCX, BRUFX, VWINX, VTMFX). These funds often keep me out of the kitchen on a monthly / quarterly / yearly basis. I will spend time reviewing whether my fund choices have actually reduced overall downside risk while still achieving enough upside growth.
Regards,
Ted
Also did a trend play on a bank loan ETF, BKLN. That's on close watch, but has trended nicely the last 2 months.
Old Skeet also posts a detailed analysis of his portfolio in different discussion sections. I don't have that link here. I've also found the lifecycle funds for the Thrift Savings Plan to be quite helpful and try to emulate their asset allocation based on my own expected retirement date. https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundOptions/index.html
Derf
Sorry for the delay in answering your question as I have been away from the board most of the day working on my wife's 'special' assignment she had for me.
Thank you for your question. I don’t mind making comment again on how I govern within the portfolio.
The hybrid funds which are found in the hybrid income sleeve located in the income area and the global hybrid and domestic hybrid sleeves located in the growth and income area make up about forty percent of the overall portfolio. I hold these funds for several reasons one being for their walking asset allocation as they pretty much can invest in a wide spectrum of investments and can make weighting adjustments from time-to-time as to how the fund manager is reading the market. I don’t tweak the funds weighting within these sleeves very often.
During the selling stampede I added to select positions found in the global equity and domestic equity sleeves located in the growth and income area of the portfolio. After equities recovered and I became above my target weighting to them I just recently rebalanced my allocation in equities by eliminating several equity positions found in the growth area of the portfolio trimming it back to it's target allocation weighting of 15% while keeping the growth and income area at it’s target weighting of 35% making no adjustment there. Not to long ago my weighting targets were 30% for the growth and income area and 20% for the growth area. With this, there has been a weighting shift to hold more in value related funds while keeping the overall allocation to equities at its target weighting of 50%.
Most of the funds that I make the most adjustments in are going to be in the equity sleeves found in both the growth and income area and growth area of the portfolio. These are the ones that I tweak more often as to how I am reading the markets. About thirty percent of the portfolio will be found in these sleeves.
I hope this answers your question.
Old_Skeet
Been selling everything that's not core.....50% cash now. Love rallies......they make me seem so smart for a week or so. Will wait for the oil talks next month to see what I will do. I think the pajama people will determine the next move in the market. JMO now.....
God bless
the Pudd
Regards,
Ted