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Is Ted Sleeping while the important news is happening??????????????????????? BOJ - negative
BOJ & ECB negative, China growth slowing - FED doesn't raise due to slow 4 qtr growth, oil down ... all fighting slow growth and fearing a world wide recession. Gov'ts debt tapped out but they still do crazy things.
My guess they can not stop it. The whole Keynesian Economic fallacy is going to be exposed as a sham.
Hopefully, it won't be to bad. My fear is that the pent up 'screw up' of the decades will hurt a lot of workers.
Given how the Asian markets are rallying and the futures shot up here, at least some people with money seem to think the sky isn't falling.
Ted seems to be a early to bed, early to rise kind of guy given his posting times. He might be up by the time I finish watching the Australian Opens semifinals through the night.
Given how the Asian markets are rallying and the futures shot up here, at least some people with money seem to think the sky isn't falling.
Is that the smart money or the dumb money?
Or is it the pump and dump?
If I think the world is going full NIRP (which it would not surprise me if it did, despite the fact that that will likely end very, very badly) then I do not want to be in cash, I want to be in assets. Hence, unsurprising futures ramp.
If we go back to ZIRP (or better yet, NIRP), watch REITs and other productive assets that yield.
Honestly, if we are eventually heading in the NIRP direction in this country, lets just do it now and get the spectacular failure out of the way rather than dragging this out. After what NIRP will cause if we go that route, perhaps we can start anew and try to, I don't know, try to figure out how to rebuild a sustainable economy based around producing things (aside from Facebook posts, although apparently that economy is doing exceedingly well) and not based around financial engineering.
Also, would not surprise me if countries start to move towards electronic transactions and doing away with physical cash.
Isoroku Yamamoto's sleeping giant quotation is a saying attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. The quotation is portrayed at the very end of the 1970 film Tora! Tora! Tora! as: "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." (Wikipedia)
Art Cashin talking about how this ends on CNBC: "At some point, somebody will push too hard and the currency/ies will start to go." (just on CNBC, and I couldn't agree more.)
Art Cashin talking about how this ends on CNBC: "At some point, somebody will push too hard and the currency/ies will start to go." (just on CNBC, and I couldn't agree more.)
Hi Scott - Longer term I don't trust any currency. They're all subject to political manipulation or central bank miscalculation or ineptness. I think that's why we invest. To try to protect against currency devaluation. Think back to what a buck bought you in 1950 or 60 or 70.
Of course longer term is a very long time and hard to relate to while watching Bloomberg's daily stocks, metals, currency or bond tickers. Makes all of us a bit near sighted I'm afraid.
The whole Keynesian Economic fallacy is going to be exposed as a sham.
You should read up on Keynes, then, because you don't understand what Keynesian econ is. Hint: monetary policy alone is not a Keynesian approach.
I suggest you read up on forums ... they aren't a place for an exhaustive dissertation on Keynesian econ and its failures ... hint not worth the time to inform the ill informed.
Isoroku Yamamoto's sleeping giant quotation is a saying attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. The quotation is portrayed at the very end of the 1970 film Tora! Tora! Tora! as: "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." (Wikipedia)
I don't think Japan can be waken at this point. They have been fighting this situation since their bubble burst in the late 80s. They have an aging population and have been living off their previous positive balance of trade. Their current BOT is zero so they could go on for awhile.
If I think the world is going full NIRP (which it would not surprise me if it did, despite the fact that that will likely end very, very badly) then I do not want to be in cash, I want to be in assets. Hence, unsurprising futures ramp.
If we go back to ZIRP (or better yet, NIRP), watch REITs and other productive assets that yield.
Honestly, if we are eventually heading in the NIRP direction in this country, lets just do it now and get the spectacular failure out of the way rather than dragging this out. After what NIRP will cause if we go that route, perhaps we can start anew and try to, I don't know, try to figure out how to rebuild a sustainable economy based around producing things (aside from Facebook posts, although apparently that economy is doing exceedingly well) and not based around financial engineering.
Also, would not surprise me if countries start to move towards electronic transactions and doing away with physical cash.
I agree. Workers will be taking the brunt of the hurt in that situation. Stagnating wages while their basics go up - health care, food and maybe energy.
If I think the world is going full NIRP (which it would not surprise me if it did, despite the fact that that will likely end very, very badly) then I do not want to be in cash, I want to be in assets. Hence, unsurprising futures ramp.
If we go back to ZIRP (or better yet, NIRP), watch REITs and other productive assets that yield.
Honestly, if we are eventually heading in the NIRP direction in this country, lets just do it now and get the spectacular failure out of the way rather than dragging this out. After what NIRP will cause if we go that route, perhaps we can start anew and try to, I don't know, try to figure out how to rebuild a sustainable economy based around producing things (aside from Facebook posts, although apparently that economy is doing exceedingly well) and not based around financial engineering.
Also, would not surprise me if countries start to move towards electronic transactions and doing away with physical cash.
I agree. Workers will be taking the brunt of the hurt in that situation. Stagnating wages while their basics go up - health care, food and maybe energy.
Pretty much.
"But the punchline is the actual message, in which Janet Yellen tells those mired in debt to build more assets.
In other words, the Fed Chairman has some words of encouragement for the tens of millions of Americans who live at or below the poverty level, including that threatened with extinction class, affectionately known as "the middle."
Should tell one much of what they need to know in terms of what the Fed's priority is. It should be no surprise that the wealth disparity in this country has increased massively and will only continue to.
"In 2015, 62 billionaires had more wealth than half the world’s population – compared to 388 in 2010."
I mean hey, that's the world we live in. Invest accordingly.
As for Japan, "They have an aging population"
Adult diapers outsell baby diapers in Japan. I'm sure that their elderly population is going to be just thrilled going down a NIRP path that Japan will probably never voluntarily get off of.
"But the punchline is the actual message, in which Janet Yellen tells those mired in debt to build more assets.
Another Fed member said awhile ago that the cure to the Social Security issues is to push out the date people can get it and people will just have to work longer. As if there was a job for them to do that. The FED is out of touch.
What does that have to do with anything? Is this a prole arg? When was the last time our teachers, lawyers, engineers, webmasters, clerks, or economists did heavy lifting? Do our plumbers or firefighters have some insights (econ, moral) the fed does not? Please explain the shot.
David I think you can relax a little. Think of a physically demanding job/profession - firefighter, carpenter, cement or brick layer, plumber, almost any of the building trades just for example. Now, how many do you know in these professions that are over the age of 70 and still on the job? Over 60? People get worn out. No doubt the career professions you listed can tax an individual in another way which may leave them physically incapacitated as well but it's different.
Bottom line, I don't believe a slight was intended.
Not unrelaxed or slighted; just was not clear on the point. That Fed types do not understand that labor cannot be done past a certain year of life, and are cavalier in their advice, or worse? (This is an arg some econs have made for lowering SS fra and also increasing benefits.)
@david - Fair enough, I misread your statement then. My apologies.
You added: "That Fed types do not understand that labor cannot be done past a certain year of life, and are cavalier in their advice, or worse?" This, I do believe and mind you it is just my own silly opinion with no empirical data to back it up. My reading of the evidence when it comes to discussions about balancing the federal checkbook is that the cuts somehow always should come of out programs and initiatives that benefit those on the lower and already struggling ends of the wage or needs scale.... Aw crap, never mind. I don't want to get into it suffice to say that our priorities and moral compass as a country are messed up.
Mark, Could not agree more and have posted so. "... common argument [for raising the retirement age] amounts, in effect, to the notion that we can’t let janitors retire because lawyers are living longer" [Krugman and others].
Press was talking about the Federal Reserve. Not the debt fearmongerers who advocate bad changes to SS.
Sorry if my comment created unwelcomed turmoil...stated perhaps more clearly... anyone suggesting that the Social Security eligibility age be moved out ( a Federal Reserve member per Dex's post) needs to account for those performing manual labor to bring home the bacon.
Comments
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/boj-q-a-on-adoption-of-negative-rate-policy-full-text
My guess they can not stop it. The whole Keynesian Economic fallacy is going to be exposed as a sham.
Hopefully, it won't be to bad. My fear is that the pent up 'screw up' of the decades will hurt a lot of workers.
Ted seems to be a early to bed, early to rise kind of guy given his posting times. He might be up by the time I finish watching the Australian Opens semifinals through the night.
Or is it the pump and dump?
If we go back to ZIRP (or better yet, NIRP), watch REITs and other productive assets that yield.
Honestly, if we are eventually heading in the NIRP direction in this country, lets just do it now and get the spectacular failure out of the way rather than dragging this out. After what NIRP will cause if we go that route, perhaps we can start anew and try to, I don't know, try to figure out how to rebuild a sustainable economy based around producing things (aside from Facebook posts, although apparently that economy is doing exceedingly well) and not based around financial engineering.
Also, would not surprise me if countries start to move towards electronic transactions and doing away with physical cash.
Some discussion:
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-negative-interest-rates-would-work-japan-switzerland-2015-11
Will take another look at DXJ and DXJH in particular and looking now. The $/Yen.....
Also related, the ongoing purchase program of Japanese etf's by the BOJ.
https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=boj+ownership+of+etfs
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/25662/japan-s-abenomics-minister-amari-to-resign-over-graft-scandal
wealthtrack.com/recent-programs/hyman-stattman-part-2-exclusive-2016-global-outlook/
Isoroku Yamamoto's sleeping giant quotation is a saying attributed to Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto regarding the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor by forces of Imperial Japan. The quotation is portrayed at the very end of the 1970 film Tora! Tora! Tora! as: "I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve." (Wikipedia)
Regards,
Ted
Hi Scott - Longer term I don't trust any currency. They're all subject to political manipulation or central bank miscalculation or ineptness. I think that's why we invest. To try to protect against currency devaluation. Think back to what a buck bought you in 1950 or 60 or 70.
Of course longer term is a very long time and hard to relate to while watching Bloomberg's daily stocks, metals, currency or bond tickers. Makes all of us a bit near sighted I'm afraid.
Enough said.
Workers will be taking the brunt of the hurt in that situation. Stagnating wages while their basics go up - health care, food and maybe energy.
"But the punchline is the actual message, in which Janet Yellen tells those mired in debt to build more assets.
In other words, the Fed Chairman has some words of encouragement for the tens of millions of Americans who live at or below the poverty level, including that threatened with extinction class, affectionately known as "the middle."
Her message? It is important to build assets, or said otherwise... get rich." (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-16/janet-yellen-trolls-americas-poor-tells-them-it-important-get-rich)
Should tell one much of what they need to know in terms of what the Fed's priority is. It should be no surprise that the wealth disparity in this country has increased massively and will only continue to.
"In 2015, 62 billionaires had more wealth than half the world’s population – compared to 388 in 2010."
I mean hey, that's the world we live in. Invest accordingly.
As for Japan, "They have an aging population"
Adult diapers outsell baby diapers in Japan. I'm sure that their elderly population is going to be just thrilled going down a NIRP path that Japan will probably never voluntarily get off of.
I wonder when the last time a Fed member broke a sweat from physical labor?
Bottom line, I don't believe a slight was intended.
You added: "That Fed types do not understand that labor cannot be done past a certain year of life, and are cavalier in their advice, or worse?" This, I do believe and mind you it is just my own silly opinion with no empirical data to back it up. My reading of the evidence when it comes to discussions about balancing the federal checkbook is that the cuts somehow always should come of out programs and initiatives that benefit those on the lower and already struggling ends of the wage or needs scale.... Aw crap, never mind. I don't want to get into it suffice to say that our priorities and moral compass as a country are messed up.
Could not agree more and have posted so. "... common argument [for raising the retirement age] amounts, in effect, to the notion that we can’t let janitors retire because lawyers are living longer" [Krugman and others].
Press was talking about the Federal Reserve. Not the debt fearmongerers who advocate bad changes to SS.
press