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The Not-So-Surprising Truth About Gold Bugs

FYI: Before you buy into gold, consider the track record of those behind the hype.
Regards,
Ted
http://fundreference.com/articles/2015/1000693/truth-about-gold-bugs/

Comments

  • edited September 2015
    Now that is really a hatchet job. - "hype", like beauty is in the eye of the beholder..

    Were someone so inclined, they could cherry pick anecdotes of equity promoters too. -- The 1st one that comes to mind is James Glassman's 1999 tome "Dow 36,000". Still waiting for that one... Or that equity analysts are generally "optimists" by nature and have a consequent bias for over-estimating forward stock prices.

    How is that not "hype"?

    Further, the legacy broker and fund-distribution racket -- clipping ~ 1.5% of one's portfolio value annually or clipping 5% on broker-sold fund vehicles (and residual commissions thereafter) is much more ubiquitous & sinister than folks buying some Eagles, Maple Leafs etc.
  • Putting a value on gold requires measuring the marginal cost of production plus the fear premium. Measuring the fear premium is the tricky part.
  • Generating the fear premium is the tricky part.
  • edited September 2015
    @OJ :-)
  • Putting a value on gold requires measuring the marginal cost of production plus the fear premium. Measuring the fear premium is the tricky part.

    Storage is another cost... whether as slips of paper (etfs) or the actual metal.

  • No, it doesn't --- not any more than buying equities or debt requires that one "knows" what a company is going to earn, or what the natural (i.e. not set by Central bankers) level of interest rates is. People buy stock and bond index funds all the time, oblivious to "fundamental" knowledge. -- Much more often than gold, trading /daytrading/high-frequency trading of equities (which now dominates market volumes) is divorced from fundamentals of any kind -- its based on technical patterns (trending following and the like).

    Not to say any of that is wrong -- but certainly given what passes for 'investing' in equities these days, casting aspersions on 'gold bugs' seems like a vile pastime.


    LewisBraham

    8:22AM Flag



    Putting a value on gold requires measuring the marginal cost of production plus the fear premium. Measuring the fear premium is the tricky part.
  • @Old_Joe Fear premium. That's kinda catch-y, and not inaccurate. Hadn't heard that one before. I like it.
  • Gotta give credit for that one to Lewis. I like it too. But the generating part is pretty accurate also.
  • edited September 2015
    Looking at the current political scene, I see no shortage of fear premium. (I've deleted some earlier specifics, not wanting to precipitate a political debate)

    I can tell you gold is not for the timid - whatever else one may think of it. The cyclic swings in value are huge. (It can quadruple in price over just a few years and than lose half its value just as fast.)

    Time spans between peaks and bottoms are great - often lasting decades. I don't know anyone who believes gold (or other hard assets) will produce the same long term appreciation as stocks in good companies will. That's not why people buy it.
  • edited September 2015
    Personally, I think the metals are more an insurance for certain scenarios. I do think that there is a desire from some to put all their eggs in one basket, but I think there are a number of things that provide some level of protection against various scenarios. As for "bugs", Bitcoin bugs share some similarities despite the item in question being quite different.

    That said, I'm not surprised by the bizarre level of hatred directed towards gold bugs by the financial media.

  • edited September 2015
    Certainly an article with a point of view to advance using selected (possibly incomplete) examples, as Edmund alluded to.

    Clicking the "About" section on Ted's source reveals that "Fund Reference" is owned and operated by Poseidon Financial, a publishing company with offices in Chicago and Fort Worth.

    (I've found other information stating that Poseidon Financial was actually founded by Andy Haggens in Holland, MI. - so am unsure as to whether this is the same company that published this article.)
  • "As for "bugs", Bitcoin bugs share some similarities despite the item in question being quite different."

    Yes, that's true, but I haven't picked up any real commercial effort to convince people that bitcoins will be their only salvation come the "inevitable financial Armageddon".

    "That said, I'm not surprised by the bizarre level of hatred directed towards gold bugs by the financial media."

    And to me, that's the difference. Many of the commercial gold-selling enterprises actively promote various scenarios of the forthcoming utter and complete collapse of financial civilization as we know it... "just a matter of time, folks! Bound to happen, and pretty soon, too! Save your butts... buy our stuff!!" Of course the financial media reacts in a negative and contemptuous manner. Nothing bizarre about that- pretty normal reaction, I'd say.
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