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How much Emerging markets is in your portfolio. Buy, sell or hold.
I currently have ODMAX at 6% of portfolio and MAPTX at 4% of portfolio. Oppenheimer is down 20% since purchase. I have held the belief for the past few year, to my demise, that EM would produce some results with little to show for that thought. Buy-sell-hold ODMAX?
Other INT funds are OARIX, IVWIX, ARTGX and GPROX.
Not much. A couple of stocks and an assortment of funds. Not adding or selling. I'm particularly concerned about Brazil/LatAm. China/Asia not so much. Everyone's worried about China, no one's really talking about Brazil much.
About 40% of the stocks in my core portfolio are foreign stocks (via mutual funds). About 36% of the foreign stocks are emerging/frontier markets stocks per M* data. (That equals about 15% of the stocks in my portfolio.) The core portfolio is essentially a buy and hold portfolio with infrequent trading. My thinking is that in the intermediate to long term EM/FM stocks have better growth potential than most other segments of my stock portfolio but are relatively somewhat undervalued. So, they get over weighted.
I don't have a tradeable sense about what might happen in the short term but currently plan to maintain about a 40% weighting for the EM/FM segment of my foreign stock holdings. If the market continues to punish that segment of my portfolio, I will be buying some more EM/FM stocks when the portfolio gets rebalanced if changes are made.
I have 12% international, 1/3 of which is considered emerging market. I sold off ODMAX and ABEMX in favor of HIEMX earlier this year. It tends to be less volatile than the other two, has limited access to new investments, but was able to get in. Also added MINDX as part of emerging. I also have OSMYX for small cap intl. Like many others, have ARTGX and OAKIX for more traditional intl.
@expatsp- Well sir, thank you very much for such a generous offer. I personally don't have any South American financial exposure, so it's just a matter of morbid curiosity on my part. Dilma's apparently leading Brazil to a very bad place, and additionally there's the general economic deterioration due to the fall in oil income, and the major scandals involving highly placed businessmen, the national oil company, and of course, politicians. Also, the recent coverage regarding the extreme pollution of the waterways to be used for the Olympics was very disheartening, not so much for the Olympics themselves but rather that the Brazilians are doing stuff like this to themselves.
The government chaos will undoubtedly turn their attention away from the protection of the environment out in the frontier areas, so we may expect the usual rapine to continue and probably accelerate there. Altogether, not a pretty picture.
@Old_Joe You seem quite well informed! The one thing that's off, and I wonder if there's an article in there for me somewhere because it's a very common mistake that I see, is Brazil is not and has never been an oil exporter. It barely reached self-sufficiency a few year ago then became an importer again.
The big commodity exports are iron ore and agriculture products, but exports are only a sliver of GDP, it's quite a closed economy. Yes, the fall in commodity prices have hurt, but what's killing them is the collapse in domestic consumption due to a debt bubble, both in the government and the private sector. It's more like what happened to Greece (though not nearly as bad, though the government here cooked the books too) than what's happening to, say, Russia.
Maybe that's a story for me. Gotta think a little more. Thanks for your thoughts, OJ!
@expatsp- Thanks for the correction re oil. It's quite a privilege having someone like you contributing to MFO! I was under the impression that Brazil was trying to develop deep-sea oil reserves for potential export as well as internal use, but I don't believe that project is going so well either.
As of my last instant Xray analysis ... I have about a five percent weighting to emerging markets. The two emerging markets funds that I currently own are THDAX & NEWFX; and, as of 09/08/2015 market close both funds are about 20% below their fifty two week high ... Ouch.
@Old_Joe: "I was under the impression that Brazil was trying to develop deep-sea oil reserves for potential export as well as internal use, but I don't believe that project is going so well either." Spot on!
I have indirect exposure only: mainly through RPSIX (my single largest holding) and DODLX. Am I ever tempted to make a speculative play! When these funds turn, they can bounce 10, 20, 30% in a single year.
However, it would put me far outside my normal pre-determined perameters.
I cut way down on foreign. Not because I was spooked, but because I was tired of waiting for my Asia fund to start producing. The vast majority of it was in PRASX. I still own a tiny position. Since I'm a long-term type, I was riding out the volatility until I just finally became too disgusted with the fund. Some recent advice in here at MFO finally pushed me to sell PRASX and put most of it into PRWCX. My foreign stake is now down from 28% to 10% of portfolio.
According to M* x-ray portfolio, I have about 10% exposure in EM, mainly through SFGIX and RNWGX (also some thru several diversified international funds). Active management is what I prefer in this asset class. Sold majority of Matthews funds and reallocated them to Seafarer.
Comments
Yes, about the only decent coverage I've seen is in the Economist, and that's not looking hopeful.
I don't have a tradeable sense about what might happen in the short term but currently plan to maintain about a 40% weighting for the EM/FM segment of my foreign stock holdings. If the market continues to punish that segment of my portfolio, I will be buying some more EM/FM stocks when the portfolio gets rebalanced if changes are made.
I have 12% international, 1/3 of which is considered emerging market. I sold off ODMAX and ABEMX in favor of HIEMX earlier this year. It tends to be less volatile than the other two, has limited access to new investments, but was able to get in. Also added MINDX as part of emerging. I also have OSMYX for small cap intl. Like many others, have ARTGX and OAKIX for more traditional intl.
The government chaos will undoubtedly turn their attention away from the protection of the environment out in the frontier areas, so we may expect the usual rapine to continue and probably accelerate there. Altogether, not a pretty picture.
Thanks for your comments!
The big commodity exports are iron ore and agriculture products, but exports are only a sliver of GDP, it's quite a closed economy. Yes, the fall in commodity prices have hurt, but what's killing them is the collapse in domestic consumption due to a debt bubble, both in the government and the private sector. It's more like what happened to Greece (though not nearly as bad, though the government here cooked the books too) than what's happening to, say, Russia.
Maybe that's a story for me. Gotta think a little more. Thanks for your thoughts, OJ!
As of my last instant Xray analysis ... I have about a five percent weighting to emerging markets. The two emerging markets funds that I currently own are THDAX & NEWFX; and, as of 09/08/2015 market close both funds are about 20% below their fifty two week high ... Ouch.
I have indirect exposure only: mainly through RPSIX (my single largest holding) and DODLX. Am I ever tempted to make a speculative play! When these funds turn, they can bounce 10, 20, 30% in a single year.
However, it would put me far outside my normal pre-determined perameters.