Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Portfolio just entered negative, for the year, today....waiting for the next dead cat bounce ???
Should have just gone to bed (Tuesday) and not written anything. I'll write that our portfolio is not negative for our lifetime of management. Guess that sounds better.
I am a little down thus far this year myself. And, in looking at some of my better rated hybrid funds and the Lipper Balanced Index itself I am ahead of them thus far this year ... so, I score myself, well ahead of them ... But, not liking being down year-to-date. However looking back at my three to five and even ten year returns ... Well, I am way ahead.
We tend to look at YTD because it's a convenient and fairly common starting point for comparing numbers within a defined period of time. But we tend to forget that as far as the universe is concerned, there's nothing magical or even particularly significant about Jan 1. We might just as well arbitrarily start our comparison period on April 1... in fact, that might actually make more sense given the foolishness of the financial arena.
There's probably a psychological factor there too- it makes it less painful to mentally write off a bad YTD as just a lousy single year, while we remember the good ones (and next year is sure to be better. Maybe.). Skeet is right about looking at the longer view.
We tend to look at YTD because it's a convenient and fairly common starting point for comparing numbers
Yup, but I noticed something last week, when someone (it may have been you) posted a half-dozen MF returns, all of them slightly positive, YTD. Surprised me, because it seemed several of them would have been negative, so I looked 'em up and the YTD returns were correct. However, not only were the 3 mo returns all negative (as expected) but the 1 yr returns were also all slightly more negative. And, wouldn't ya know it, when I checked several in my potpourri, the same thing--- positive YTD, but negative 1 yr. Ergo, FWIW, because of that bump-up at the beginning of 2015, we're at one of those points in time where it's probably best to look at the 1 yr, and ignore the YTD, to get the most realistic assessment of how individual investments have been performing recently.
I don't understand paying too much attention to YTD. If you have to measure from one point to the other, doesn't it make more sense to start and end at the same time of year? Sticking to a constant period instead of a period changing length also makes comparisons between two time periods a lot saner.
This is feeling similar to 2011 at this point. We may have some downdrafts for the next 6 to 8 weeks, then hopefully a rally into the end of the year and into 1Q.
YTD performance is the main parameter for the most money managers. Their behavior on the market significantly affects market dynamics. Watching YTD data may be also useful for individual investors, even though they do not need to report the results.
Catch, Thanks for the chuckle. We've been negative for awhile now - if it makes you feel any better.
I've always felt subjecting one's life savings to the vicissitudes of the markets was a bit of a gamble. But bear in mind the old: "No pain. No gain."
With short term bonds yielding what? (1% or something like that) ... is it any wonder that it's becoming harder to extract big gains from riskier assets.
Comments
I am a little down thus far this year myself. And, in looking at some of my better rated hybrid funds and the Lipper Balanced Index itself I am ahead of them thus far this year ... so, I score myself, well ahead of them ... But, not liking being down year-to-date. However looking back at my three to five and even ten year returns ... Well, I am way ahead.
Stay with it.
Old_Skeet
There's probably a psychological factor there too- it makes it less painful to mentally write off a bad YTD as just a lousy single year, while we remember the good ones (and next year is sure to be better. Maybe.). Skeet is right about looking at the longer view.
Ergo, FWIW, because of that bump-up at the beginning of 2015, we're at one of those points in time where it's probably best to look at the 1 yr, and ignore the YTD, to get the most realistic assessment of how individual investments have been performing recently.
I've always felt subjecting one's life savings to the vicissitudes of the markets was a bit of a gamble. But bear in mind the old: "No pain. No gain."
With short term bonds yielding what? (1% or something like that) ... is it any wonder that it's becoming harder to extract big gains from riskier assets.