Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
This is for @MJG, who we all know loves to use statistics to buttress his arguments:
"A businessman asked a statistician his chances of being on a plane with a bomb on it. The figure was good. “But I fly a lot,” said the businessman. Then, said the statistician, “Take your own bomb with you. The odds against being on a plane with two bombs on it are 50bn to one.”
Indeed a classic joke (at least among statisticians).
Most people do not grasp conditional probabilities, which goes toward explaining misunderstandings people have of false positives/negatives.
(Probability of a bomb B given a bomb A) = (Probability of two bombs) / (Probability of a bomb A) =
(Probability of a bomb A * Probability of a bomb B) / (Probability of bomb A) =
(Probability of B).
That is, the probability of a second bomb, given that you know one is already on board, is just the usual probability of a single bomb B.
(That is, assuming the two bombers are acting independently; a fact I used in saying that the probability of two bombs is the product of the probabilities of each bomb individually.)
Nice analysis msf. I agree that since the probability of one of the bombs on=board is perfectly known (its probability is One), the overall probability remains unchanged.
Conditional probability is not an easy subject. Even experts get it wrong.
Glad that you two found it amusing. I'd not heard that one before. And indeed, my expertise in Conditional Probability is nonexistent, and the probability of my improvement in that area is pretty dismal.
Hi @Old_Joe The B-17 I flew within last Sunday had 3 bombs in "plain" sight mounted in one bomb rack. I did view, touch and count them. I am not aware if everyone who toured the aircraft actually saw or counted the bombs. I did not do a survey..... So, I may only offer my statistic from a source of two (daughter and I). Take care, Catch
A statistician and his wife just had twins. They called the priest to arrange a baptism. The priest told them to bring the twins in next Sunday. The statistician said he would bring only one twin. He wanted to keep the other as a control.
Comments
Most people do not grasp conditional probabilities, which goes toward explaining misunderstandings people have of false positives/negatives.
(Probability of a bomb B given a bomb A) = (Probability of two bombs) / (Probability of a bomb A) =
(Probability of a bomb A * Probability of a bomb B) / (Probability of bomb A) =
(Probability of B).
That is, the probability of a second bomb, given that you know one is already on board, is just the usual probability of a single bomb B.
(That is, assuming the two bombers are acting independently; a fact I used in saying that the probability of two bombs is the product of the probabilities of each bomb individually.)
Indeed a funny story.
Nice analysis msf. I agree that since the probability of one of the bombs on=board is perfectly known (its probability is One), the overall probability remains unchanged.
Conditional probability is not an easy subject. Even experts get it wrong.
Best Wishes.
The B-17 I flew within last Sunday had 3 bombs in "plain" sight mounted in one bomb rack. I did view, touch and count them. I am not aware if everyone who toured the aircraft actually saw or counted the bombs.
I did not do a survey.....
So, I may only offer my statistic from a source of two (daughter and I).
Take care,
Catch
Actually, I stole that headline lock, stock & barrel from The Guardian. Didn't figure they'd really miss a pun like that.
I hope you can endure just one more round.
A statistician and his wife just had twins. They called the priest to arrange a baptism. The priest told them to bring the twins in next Sunday. The statistician said he would bring only one twin. He wanted to keep the other as a control.
That's one of my favorites. Enjoy.
Best Wishes.