Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Isn't it obvious? They are too busy campaigning and trying to make themselves look good for now, before their election over there. And also: it's a game of chicken. Who will blink first? Greece WANTS the rest of them to say: "OK, we're DONE with this nonsense. We're outa here. Go back to using the drachma."
Reply to @Maurice: Couldn't have put it better myself.
"After the whole deal is done, whenever that will be, someone is going to look back at the entire cost of this bailout. They will come to the conclusion that, bankruptcy would have cost less and would have been more effective. But that type of outcome is not acceptable to the sky-is-falling crowd. Hence we go through these gyrations. At this point the markets are ignoring the drama. They've seen the previous sequels, so they know the plot and the ending, though it is not a happy ending."
Reply to @scott: Obviously, those comparisons will be made assuming Spain, Italy, Portugal would not subsequently fail after Greece declared bankruptcy. If you do not fence these things the costs can easily run up in a short time in a chain reaction. In a cascade event, even France and Germany would be severely hurt if not failed.
Reply to @Old_Joe: As always I am the only dissenter in this board. You guys are thinking Greece as isolated entity. If Greece defaulted, even German banks would collapse in short order. You give some time, banks adjust, you can fence as much as possible and voila Greece bankruptcy is not that catastrophic anymore and than some folks come up and claim we should have done this in the beginning. Well, you could not.
Reply to @Investor: Hi there. I hadn't considered that. You know darned well that I'm with you on the preference for trying for a relatively smooth emergency landing where most of us survive rather than a crash and have to rebuild the entire plane. Never mind the passengers- they're gone.
Comments
"After the whole deal is done, whenever that will be, someone is going to look back at the entire cost of this bailout. They will come to the conclusion that, bankruptcy would have cost less and would have been more effective. But that type of outcome is not acceptable to the sky-is-falling crowd. Hence we go through these gyrations. At this point the markets are ignoring the drama. They've seen the previous sequels, so they know the plot and the ending, though it is not a happy ending."
Holy Toledo! We agree on that too.