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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Biotech Bubble Is Nowhere Near Popping

FYI: Talk of a bubble in biotechnology stocks is nothing new. It has been a topic of concern among investors and pundits for quite some time. This is not surprising considering that the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index has outpaced the S&P 500 by roughly 250% over the past six years. This year, in particular, has seen biotech stocks widen the outperformance gap to roughly 500%, evoking a new wave of bubble talk. Despite the onslaught of naysayers, shares of biotech stocks continue to climb higher and higher, showing no signs of stopping yet.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/biotech-bubble-is-nowhere-near-popping-2015-05-27/print

M* IBB Performance:
http://performance.morningstar.com/funds/etf/total-returns.action?t=IBB&region=USA&culture=en_US

Comments

  • Certain stocks might be stretching it but I don't think the sector as a whole has gone goofy. Now Shake Shack, that's a bubble and lala goofy to boot. It's a freakin' burger people and 5 Guys does it better anyway.
  • @Mark: Culver's, Steak & Shake, Red Robin, even White Castle make a better burger than 5 Guys or Shake Shack.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • edited May 2015
    I don't think large cap biotech is a bubble; there are smaller companies that I think are excessively valued based on hopes on their pipeline.

    That said, as I mentioned in another thread, Express Scripts and the other PBMs are going to continue to fight (and it may get much more tough) on prices and I have longer-term concerns on the sustainability of the price increases for health care. At the very least, the issue of price isn't going away and is likely something you will continue to hear about.

    As for PBMs, look at the purchases of smaller PBMs Catamaran and Omnicare recently. Some discussion that Walgreens buys Express Scripts, but that doesn't seem realistic to me.

    As Mark mentioned, SHAK is way more absurdly valued. Also, I think Uber being more valuable than something like 80% of S & P companies is also a bit ridiculous.
  • Actually Ted, I get most of my burgers at a bar but a Mary's Burger (Sydney, Australia) is to die for. And yes, have the folk's at Ramblin' Rascal's order you one. Culinary bliss!
  • How did we equate burgers with biotech?
  • TedTed
    edited May 2015
    @JohnChisum: Sorry John, but not every post can be about Apple !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Well now that you bring it up, AAPL had a very good day indeed.

    Upon further thinking, some burger joints may have more to do with biotech than we care for.
  • The NASDAQ biotechnology index lost almost two-thirds of its value in the two years ended Sept. 30, 2002, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The index currently trades at a price-to-earnings multiple of 86 compared with 19 for the S&P 500.
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