Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

In this Discussion

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

    Support MFO

  • Donate through PayPal

German Equities Up 40% Over Past Five Months

FYI: German stocks have increased 40% over the past five months. Combined with the euro depreciation and lower oil prices it all points to more upside risk to the economic outlook for Europe.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2015/03/german-equities-up-40-over-past-five-months/print/

DAX Members:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/movers/dax/

Comments

  • "more upside risk to the economic outlook for Europe."

    What does that mean? If we talk of "downside risk", the common understanding is that we are considering the risk of a market going down, or lower.

    So what the hell is "upside risk"? Are we are considering the "risk" of a market going up, or higher?

    Note: that phrasing isn't Ted's- he quoted from Ritholtz.
  • edited March 2015
    Ted said:

    Combined with the euro depreciation

    Hope anyone invested was hedged. Oh, and the move was totally based on improving fundamentals, not beggar-thy-neighbor currency bs....

    Bayer US ADR shares vs Bayer German shares 6mo:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BAYN.DE+Interactive#{"range":"6mo","scale":"linear","comparisons":{"BAYRY":{"color":"#cc0000","weight":1}}}

  • Hey @Old_Joe

    Ya, that pesky "upside risk" thingy.

    Suppose I've always been equally concerned with either the up or downside.

    My view of the upside revolves more to buying what could be near the top of pricing for "x" and that then becomes the downside risk, too, as the price goes bye-bye. Or one could suppose the downside risk involves what is perceived as a value and/or bargain price to find that there is more value to be had as the price continues to retreat. :)

    Anyhoo......Wikipedia has the "upside risk" detail right here.

    Ok, gett'in late here; and up at 6am.

    Take care out your way.

    Catch
  • From Wickipedia: "upside risk is not a “risk” at all in the sense of a possibility of adverse outcomes. It is actually beneficial to investors, because it represents the element of beta that investors profit from. Therefore, higher upside risk is better than lower, and upside risk is preferable to downside risk."

    That certainly clarifies the whole thing. Thanks Catch... I think...
  • Well, if you're a fund manager who holds a lot of cash, or a long-short manager who's mostly short, then if the markets go up you risk underperforming the market and your benchmark. I think that's what guys like Ritholz who manage other people's money mean by upside risk. Then financial journalists parrot it.
  • expatsp said:

    Well, if you're a fund manager who holds a lot of cash, or a long-short manager who's mostly short, then if the markets go up you risk underperforming the market and your benchmark.

    And investors who get impatient long before the quarter ends. Think what you will about Cramer, but his first book has a great discussion of his time as a fund manager and how investors wanted updates quarterly, then monthly, then weekly and then were demanding daily.

Sign In or Register to comment.