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Really OT - Net worth and your education and intelligence
Hi Catch- well, he's already pretty well defined it. He states that "I can not look back and point out one circumstance, where I could say, my success was because of "luck", but I can look back, and say some of my failures were beyond my control."
That's a pretty neat formulation: "When I did good it wasn't luck; when I didn't it wasn't my fault". Pretty incredible, not having even one circumstance where luck was a factor.
By refusing to recognize that serendipity is a factor, anyone holding otherwise is de-facto "this type of mentality". This is both typical and entirely consistent with the practice of reducing situations which factually have a broad spectrum of causes and effects to a totally simplistic "black or white" construction.
As I mentioned in a recently closed thread, one of the main problems with this type of discussion is that some participants classify everyone as either a "100% self-made man", or not. Predictably of course they classify themselves as the "100% self-made" type. By this curiously perverted logic therefore it's only natural that anyone not in that class would have "This type of mentality". Kind of reminiscent of the Third Reich, isn't it? Just a little scary, I think.
@TPA ... reminds me of the professional golfer who's competitors said he was a "lucky" winning golfer he said "I know and the more I practice the luckier I get"</blockquote
Love it! ---
Not to take sides here ... Serendipity led one to the place in life where he could afford a set of golf clubs and greens fees. But hard work perfected the game.
I asked the question; as I wasn't sure of the meaning mentality relative to this thread. I am too tired tonight; as I have some notes for this thread, but a long day and I am done for today/tonight. One point did pop into my mind regarding luck and one's future direction; was the multi-year "military draft lottery for Vietnam". I didn't have to worry about this, as my non-lottery draft notice in 1967 did not provide otherwise. Although a narrow area, affecting few folks, the "luck" of the draw did change a few lives forever. EDIT: My "luck" was that there was a military action in place and I was at the "ripe picking" age of 18. Hang in there.........I am away. Perhaps an add to this tomorrow. I just am not sure how much of my soul to bear here; as to how I have become who I am. Might have to keep this stuff for the "book".
I think most would agree that luck, divine intervention , or a bit of both helped them through their lives.
@catch22 made an excellent reference. The Vietnam era changed many a person's lives. Some for good, some not so good. I registered for SS like a good citizen and my number was middle of the road. A short time later the government stopped the draft process as the war came to an end. What would my future have been had I gone over? I will never know.
YOU keep out of this! Look at all the work that you've caused! Just sit there and be quiet!!!
Ha! Ha! Sure has taken some twists and turns. Lucky people are often risk takers (fortune favors the bold) So I never begrudge any of those multi-million dollar lottery winners. Albeit the real lucky and successful among us *rarely if ever* play the lottery, the horses, or gamble in Vegas or Reno.
"Sure has taken some twists and turns." Yep, for sure. A very decent conversation. I thought.
Junkster- re-reading some of the earlier comments I see that I had overlooked your example of the hiking companion who is very intelligent but is financially not secure. As many here know, my wife and I spend about half of our time in SF, and long weekends up in a small Sonoma County town about 90 minutes north of SF. The woman that you describe is similar to many, many of the Russian River locals up there. It's really hard to fathom, but at the bottom I have to believe that some part of this is a need, ability, or desire to try to look into the future, so as to be financially prepared for whatever may come. It seems to me that some people have that need, and some just don't. Very hard to truly understand all of this... it seems to defy logic in many ways, and intelligence and education are only contributing factors, I believe. Lots of different perceived realities, out there.
Luck vs skill in success is a common debate. I think both play a role. I too have read Max Gunther's wonderful book and believe that you can tilt odds in your favor by a variety of methods. However, luck does play a role. In my own case, I was born in a village with no school, no electricity and virtually no transportation (one had to walk for about twp hours before you approach a dirt road with a bus coming about once a day to take you anywhere. As a young kid, my grandmother decided to take me to my uncle staying in a big city and the uncle was nice enough to take care of my education there. My brothers did not get that chance. Once I was on that path, my hard work was primarily responsible for my success in education and now an upper middle-class lifestyle. Even then other 'lucky' factors contributed (by chance being an area with the best school in the city, some charitable foundations funding my education, etc.). I now have a Ph.D. and an upper middle-class lifestyle in US, while my brothers did not get an opportunity to get out and have a vastly lower income (although this may not be the only measure of 'success'.) The bifurcation in the road is purely luck, me being the oldest child my grandmother chose to take with her. At the age of about four, was there anything I could have done to influence it?
You have a fascinating story that merits telling. And you tell it well; it is a terrific story with many valuable lessons.
Congratulations on your wise choices and excellent decision making. Congratulations on recognizing that luck also was a key factor in your successful life. It's often difficult to completely separate the luck from the skill components. The hard work is more easily identified.
Please accept my very Best Wishes and many thanks.
Kaspa's experience shows that luck in many cases happens early on in life and often before we are old enough to know how it affected us. If your parents moved to a better area when you were a baby, you might not know. Small circumstances become major life points on hindsight.
I'll start with the original postie with a story from 'nam. As some recall, I was RADAR O'Reilly for a Marine Corps special forces unit from 3/68-11/69.
In Alpha Deuce, we had a kid from New England, white, scored a 128 on the military IQ test with 110 being required to be an officer. He came in the hootch one day and saw me reading Ulysses and started quoting me prices for 1st Editions. That said, his nickname in his squad was "dumdum" because of his painful lack of common sense.
He had a squad mate, black, from East St. Louis with a 63 test score - a score so low he needed a congressional waiver to enlist during a bleeding war!!!! He came over a PFC and immediately got the nickname of Rock, after Sgt. Rock in the comic strip. Note that this was in a special forces unit. This man was not only a very polite gentleman, but had more common sense that anyone I've ever known. Indeed, after going to the bush for 6 months, this man, who was functionally illiterate, weaseled his way into the job of Battalion Postal Clerk and did well.
What it means? You tell me.
As for how we turn out, I've always believed that we're comprised of three things - our genes, our environment and our choices.
My brother adopted two kids very young. The girl was born to 15 year old and who had a granny that was in her young 30's. Whelp, she's got a BS in PreMed, is a PA and going back to grad school. She may yet become a doctor. Note that my brother is a physician and his wife is an attorney. The other adopted child, similar background, is working on his MS in Int'l Relations. He's fluent in 6 languages currently.
OK, lets get a little Max: " What Max Gunther found was that lucky people have a tendency to trust their hunches whereas unlucky people rarely do so. However, it is not all that simple. Not any hunch will do. What lucky (skilled..tb) people seem to have is an ability to formulate accurate hunches. Even more important, they have great faith in their hunches and act on them, as more timid and unlucky (unsuccessful...tb) people would not. What I found even more interesting was Max Gunther's observation that the ability to generate sound hunches was a SKILL that can be learned."
“Luck is when preparation and determination meet opportunity”. Borrowed but has "tampabay" written all over it
Compare and formulate your own luck "mentality"....tb
Tampabay - I don't think anyone here is saying that one should not work smart and hard, and rely on luck. Looks like you have worked smart/hard and are very successful, congratulations! I have read Max Gunther and am a big believer in 'shaping your luck' as you state.
Tilting odds in your favor have a lot of elements to it, but it ultimately boils down to choices and how you act on them. Among the choices available to you, your skill, hunches, analysis will guide you to the ones with the highest probability of success. You will also learn how to get in positions where you have more of the choices you need. How you act on the choices (speed, drive, initiative, risk mitigation, etc.) is something you control.
There are things you cannot control (beyond your sphere of influence in other words) where you may have a good idea of risk, i.e., you can qualitatively or quantitatively estimate the probability function and position yourself for greatest chance of success based on your analysis/skills/hunch . If you can outline all those risks, you can mitigate against it by various plans with options, strategies. In simpler words, be prepared, understand risks and be bold to act accordingly.
However, there are things you cannot control and also for which you cannot estimate the probability, for which by definition you cannot position for greatest chance of success. I have seen them defined as uncertainties (vs. risks). Some of those can restrict choices available to you (e.g., born in a remote village with extremely narrow contact with rest of the world, as I mentioned). These could be choices to find mentors (very important), choices to get basic education, choices for business options (e.g. a communist country vs. open markets), etc. Some are natural or financial disasters, like the great recession.
Another way to think about this is conditional probabilities. There are certain primary choices made for you. You can only influence outcome, subject to this initial choices. The primary choice in some cases may have a much greater influence on the overall outcome. Being born as white male in US is a much better primary choice vs. being born as a woman with no access to education under a totalitarian regime vs. being born in a remote tribe in Africa vs. being born in North Korea, etc. The distribution of outcomes is very different.
I think what I was trying to say in my initial post is there are a lot of people where I live that are in dead end jobs, never attended college, and have little to no financial assets. Yet they are much smarter and intelligent than the people I know with good paying jobs, who have college degrees and more, and have significant financial assets. I guess it is a cultural thing passed down from generation to generation that you graduate high school then go get a job. College is not an option. Until I was exposed to this culture I erroneously believed that college grads were inherently smarter than those without such degrees. Boy was I wrong!!
Lastly, and a bit contradictory to above, I do not live in the mountains of eastern Appalachia Ky where poverty is rampant. In fact, I live in one of the most prosperous counties in KY being it is the largest cattle and hay producer. Lots of farmers here with little education with a seven figure net worth because of their land holdings. Land holdings passed down from generation to generation.
Junkster, I tend to think that there are many relatively smart (although often uneducated) people have little or no awareness of what opportunities exist for them, outside of the world that they know.
I completely agree, and am often shocked at how smart many, low skilled/low wage people are.
I suppose many of them simply don't value money or material things as much as some on a website like this do.
Not to say that we all value material things. For most of us, it's likely security that is the comforting thing that comes from increasing one's wealth.
Comments
You noted: "This type of mentality"
Might you expand this thought a bit more for my old and thick brain cells?
fit with successful people....but good for lottery ticket buyers
That's a pretty neat formulation: "When I did good it wasn't luck; when I didn't it wasn't my fault". Pretty incredible, not having even one circumstance where luck was a factor.
By refusing to recognize that serendipity is a factor, anyone holding otherwise is de-facto "this type of mentality". This is both typical and entirely consistent with the practice of reducing situations which factually have a broad spectrum of causes and effects to a totally simplistic "black or white" construction.
As I mentioned in a recently closed thread, one of the main problems with this type of discussion is that some participants classify everyone as either a "100% self-made man", or not. Predictably of course they classify themselves as the "100% self-made" type. By this curiously perverted logic therefore it's only natural that anyone not in that class would have "This type of mentality". Kind of reminiscent of the Third Reich, isn't it? Just a little scary, I think.
... reminds me of the professional golfer who's competitors said he was a "lucky" winning golfer he said "I know and the more I practice the luckier I get"</blockquote
Love it!
---
Not to take sides here ... Serendipity led one to the place in life where he could afford a set of golf clubs and greens fees. But hard work perfected the game.
I asked the question; as I wasn't sure of the meaning mentality relative to this thread.
I am too tired tonight; as I have some notes for this thread, but a long day and I am done for today/tonight.
One point did pop into my mind regarding luck and one's future direction; was the multi-year "military draft lottery for Vietnam". I didn't have to worry about this, as my non-lottery draft notice in 1967 did not provide otherwise.
Although a narrow area, affecting few folks, the "luck" of the draw did change a few lives forever.
EDIT: My "luck" was that there was a military action in place and I was at the "ripe picking" age of 18.
Hang in there.........I am away. Perhaps an add to this tomorrow. I just am not sure how much of my soul to bear here; as to how I have become who I am.
Catch
@catch22 made an excellent reference. The Vietnam era changed many a person's lives. Some for good, some not so good. I registered for SS like a good citizen and my number was middle of the road. A short time later the government stopped the draft process as the war came to an end. What would my future have been had I gone over? I will never know.
My lucky break occurred when I was banned by Vanguard and T Rowe Price in the early to mid 90s and landed at INVESCO and Strong.
Junkster- re-reading some of the earlier comments I see that I had overlooked your example of the hiking companion who is very intelligent but is financially not secure. As many here know, my wife and I spend about half of our time in SF, and long weekends up in a small Sonoma County town about 90 minutes north of SF. The woman that you describe is similar to many, many of the Russian River locals up there. It's really hard to fathom, but at the bottom I have to believe that some part of this is a need, ability, or desire to try to look into the future, so as to be financially prepared for whatever may come. It seems to me that some people have that need, and some just don't. Very hard to truly understand all of this... it seems to defy logic in many ways, and intelligence and education are only contributing factors, I believe. Lots of different perceived realities, out there.
Thanks, Junkster, for starting this thing-
Regards- OJ
to get out and have a vastly lower income (although this may not be the only measure
of 'success'.) The bifurcation in the road is purely luck, me being the oldest child my
grandmother chose to take with her. At the age of about four, was there anything I could have done to influence it?
Thanks so much for that, Kaspa. If that doesn't nail it, it's totally hopeless.
Regards- OJ
You have a fascinating story that merits telling. And you tell it well; it is a terrific story with many valuable lessons.
Congratulations on your wise choices and excellent decision making. Congratulations on recognizing that luck also was a key factor in your successful life. It's often difficult to completely separate the luck from the skill components. The hard work is more easily identified.
Please accept my very Best Wishes and many thanks.
Thanks for your story @Kaspa.
I'll start with the original postie with a story from 'nam. As some recall, I was RADAR O'Reilly for a Marine Corps special forces unit from 3/68-11/69.
In Alpha Deuce, we had a kid from New England, white, scored a 128 on the military IQ test with 110 being required to be an officer. He came in the hootch one day and saw me reading Ulysses and started quoting me prices for 1st Editions. That said, his nickname in his squad was "dumdum" because of his painful lack of common sense.
He had a squad mate, black, from East St. Louis with a 63 test score - a score so low he needed a congressional waiver to enlist during a bleeding war!!!! He came over a PFC and immediately got the nickname of Rock, after Sgt. Rock in the comic strip. Note that this was in a special forces unit. This man was not only a very polite gentleman, but had more common sense that anyone I've ever known. Indeed, after going to the bush for 6 months, this man, who was functionally illiterate, weaseled his way into the job of Battalion Postal Clerk and did well.
What it means? You tell me.
As for how we turn out, I've always believed that we're comprised of three things - our genes, our environment and our choices.
My brother adopted two kids very young. The girl was born to 15 year old and who had a granny that was in her young 30's. Whelp, she's got a BS in PreMed, is a PA and going back to grad school. She may yet become a doctor. Note that my brother is a physician and his wife is an attorney. The other adopted child, similar background, is working on his MS in Int'l Relations. He's fluent in 6 languages currently.
Genes/environment/choices.
just a couple of stories,
peace,
rono
peace,
rono
" What Max Gunther found was that lucky people have a tendency to trust their hunches whereas unlucky people rarely do so. However, it is not all that simple. Not any hunch will do. What lucky (skilled..tb) people seem to have is an ability to formulate accurate hunches. Even more important, they have great faith in their hunches and act on them, as more timid and unlucky (unsuccessful...tb) people would not.
What I found even more interesting was Max Gunther's observation that the ability to generate sound hunches was a SKILL that can be learned."
“Luck is when preparation and determination meet opportunity”. Borrowed but has "tampabay" written all over it
Compare and formulate your own luck "mentality"....tb
Tilting odds in your favor have a lot of elements to it, but it ultimately boils down to choices and how you act on them. Among the choices available to you, your skill, hunches, analysis will guide you to the ones with the highest probability of success. You will also learn how to get in positions where you have more of the choices you need. How you act on the choices (speed, drive, initiative, risk mitigation, etc.) is something you control.
There are things you cannot control (beyond your sphere of influence in other words) where you may have a good idea of risk, i.e., you can qualitatively or quantitatively estimate the probability function and position yourself for greatest chance of success based on your analysis/skills/hunch . If you can outline all those risks, you can mitigate against it by various plans with options, strategies. In simpler words, be prepared,
understand risks and be bold to act accordingly.
However, there are things you cannot control and also for which you
cannot estimate the probability, for which by definition you cannot position for greatest chance of success. I have seen them defined as uncertainties (vs. risks).
Some of those can restrict choices available to you (e.g., born in a remote village with extremely narrow contact with rest of the world, as I mentioned). These could be choices to find mentors (very important), choices to get basic education, choices for
business options (e.g. a communist country vs. open markets), etc. Some are natural
or financial disasters, like the great recession.
Another way to think about this is conditional probabilities. There are certain primary choices made for you. You can only influence outcome, subject to this initial choices. The primary choice in some cases may have a much greater influence on the overall outcome. Being born as white male in US is a much better primary choice vs. being born as a woman with no access to education under a totalitarian regime vs. being born in a remote tribe in Africa vs. being born in North Korea, etc. The distribution of outcomes is very different.
Lastly, and a bit contradictory to above, I do not live in the mountains of eastern Appalachia Ky where poverty is rampant. In fact, I live in one of the most prosperous counties in KY being it is the largest cattle and hay producer. Lots of farmers here with little education with a seven figure net worth because of their land holdings. Land holdings passed down from generation to generation.
I completely agree, and am often shocked at how smart many, low skilled/low wage people are.
I suppose many of them simply don't value money or material things as much as some on a website like this do.
Not to say that we all value material things. For most of us, it's likely security that is the comforting thing that comes from increasing one's wealth.