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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Out of JNJ, PGZ. In (new or added) CLNY, GILD, ABBV, THQ, MHG. Also added a little to IPPLF. Considered adding to ETE, but didn't. Added a little to GAINX.
Headed to the oil patch. Bought GDPC & VNRCP two preferred stocks with nice yie;lds selling at a discount. Think oil prices will be higher in mid to late 2015. Regards, Ted
Looking at PVFIX today. A Small Value fund which presently is holding 49% cash. What might be interesting to consider is a recent purchase by this "cash/SV" fund. It recently put some of its cash to work with the purchase of RM, Regional Management Corp. This stock is 65% off its 52 week high. RM seem to extend credit to higher risk customers...maybe with cheap oil consumers with poor credit will qualify for credit with companies like RM. I don't owe this stock, but thought it worth mentioning.
Hold two stocks, no bonds and thinking about AMAG. Great chart, no insider selling since its big runup and are those estimates on Yahoo correct for 2015? From a loss in 2014 to 4.93 per share consensus with a huge increase in revenues. I assume it is all from their recent purchase of a private company?
Pudd here! Have been buying S&P 500 healthcare MLPs and silver....selling overseas (GAINX)....see no up side. Japan QE forever.....Europe, whatever it takes....Part 39 where the best blue skies and sunshine the world will buy our bonds and large caps so party on dudes! the Pudd
i believe in the health care theme too and am currently thinking, if that's the case, i really ought to take a look at how to use Direxion Daily Healthcare Bull 3X ETF aka CURE. maybe take 1/3 the money i was thinking of adding to PRHSX, put it in CURE, and then set up a dollar-cost-averaging program to take advantage of its volatility going forward. what do ya'll think of that? too far out?
Thus far on my special spiff that I opened during the October market swoon I am now up better than 8% almost 9%. On my gold position that I ventured into a couple weeks back and since I opened it, I have been building this position on a position cost average basis, I am up better than 6% on the position. ...............................................................................................................................................
I have copied and pasted my thoughst on gold below and what I have been doing from another thread.
Old_Skeet has started to nibble in the miners and recently opened a position in SGGDX which consists of about 70% miners and 20% gold bullion itself. In doing some research I am finding that the all in cost estimates to mine and produce an ounce of gold is about $1050.00. Some are saying gold could drop to $800.00 an ounce range and it might but I am finding this a little hard to believe. In addition, I am finding that all in cost estimates to mine and produce an ounce of silver are said by some to average about $19.00 to $20.00. Seems silver is currently selling below this at about $16.00 an ounce.
Since, I am a long term investor I feel the best time to start a position in something is when it is out of favor. Morningstar is showing that gold is about 30% undervalued in their Fair Market Valuation Graph which I have linked below. To view this click on the link below then click on the industry tab, then click on basic materials tab, then click on gold ... If this is correct and then by my math this puts the fair value on gold at about $1,500 an ounce.
Interestingly, the graph on silver is not currently working.
I have a good problem. My investment in AAPL is up over 25% and it has grown to 9% of my portfolio. I might sweep profits in order to get it down to a more reasonable percentage. This is in a tax deferred account.
@John, Rebalancing your portfolio is a solid approach in risk management. I too have fair amount of exposure to Apple and having been trimming it (along with Google) and buying bond funds. Still think economy is not robust enough for interest rate to increase substantially in the next 12 months.
Thinking about healthcare sector, too, since I keep getting mail from my LTC policy telling me they are trying to raise my premium by 75%. Maybe this is an option for counter-balancing strategy-- if you can't beat 'em, join 'em! These for-profit-LTC facility chains aren't buying up everything in sight for nothing --
With any positive movement next week, RPMGX in the tax-deferred account will hit the dollar value threshold for a haircut. I will add to my positions in O and WPC within the income sleeve. But both look pretty richly valued here, so I'm a bit conflicted.
With any positive movement next week, RPMGX in the tax-deferred account will hit the dollar value threshold for a haircut. I will add to my positions in O and WPC within the income sleeve. But both look pretty richly valued here, so I'm a bit conflicted.
I'd agree that they are both on the richly valued side, moreso O (which I think has seen a lot of money pour into it when ARCP got into serious trouble recently after its accounting issues.) Still, both are long-term holdings for me.
In terms of real estate, I've been adding to BPY (which - warning - is an MLP), STWD (like management - Barry Sternlicht) and added to Colony Financial (CLNY), which is merging with its parent company. Blackstone (BX) is classified as private equity, but has a huge amount of global real estate. BX is also an MLP and is doing a spin-off next year of its advisory business.
One of the things that I have been pondering beyond my special investment position(s) consisting of a spiff investment position made during the October swoon and my opening of a starting position in a gold fund (SGGDX) is how are my hybrid funds found in the growth & income area of my portfolio are positioning in anticipation of a rising interest rate environment?
To help answer this I have began a study of each allocation fund that I own within this area. One of the things I have noticed is that one fund (TIBAX) has reduced its allocation to bonds down to 5%. I have two funds that are holding about 35% in bonds they are LABFX and IGPAX. Two of my American Funds’ holdings AMECX and CAIBX are holding 20% and 15% respectively in bonds while its balanced fund ABALX is holding 25%. HWIAX is holding 30% while DDIAX is holding only 15% in bonds. My hybrid real estate fund FRINX held within this area is holding 40% in bonds.
I carried this a little further and decided to seek the average which turned out to be about a 25% weighting to bonds. Interestingly, this is the weighting that ABALX holds. I can remember not too many years ago these sleeves were holding upwards of 35% to 40% in weightings to bonds.
In looking at the duration I am finding that it ranges from a high of 6.07 years in TIBAX but that fund only carries a five percent weighting in bonds. The fund with the lowest duration is DDIAX at 1.41 years and has a weighting of 15% to bonds. The average duration of the global hybrid sleeve is 4.44 years while the average of the domestic hybrid sleeve is 4.0 years as per Morningstar’s portfolio manager.
So what does all this mean? Form my thinking it means that combined the hybrid funds found within the growth and income area of the portfolio have, on average, reduced their weightings to bonds along with their duration which seem to bubble towards the low range found in intermediate term bond funds; but, have not yet fallen within the range found in most short duration and/or short term bond funds.
So what has been the effect to Old_Skeet’s asset allocation found in his master portfolio which is comprised of all twelve investment sleeves. In studying the whole portfolio through Xray it seems the bond area is at it lowest point that it has been in a long time. It looks as though for me to maintain my asset allocation at a minimum range for bonds at a weighting of 25% overall I am going to have to do some buying in my income sleeve. However, I am thinking I will wait until January comes and after my funds have made their yearend capital gains distributions. This will somewhat reduce my allocation to equities and raise my allocation to cash by a like dollar amount and might re-bubble my allocation to where little buying will be needed in the fixed income sleeve.
Currently, Morningstar’s Instant Xray is reflecting that bonds make up about 23% of my overall portfolio and my low threshold is set at 25%. With this, bonds are now at 92% of it lowest allowed allocation. Generally, I want do anything that falls 95% to 105% of low/high allocation range. So I might need to buy a sum equal to one percent of portfolio's total value to get within this range which would bring this percentage up to 24% and within 95% of the allowable low allocation.
Now comes the rebalance process and raises the question? Do I buy more of the bond funds that I already own or do I look for some new ones to possibly add to this sleeve? The funds that I currently own within my income sleeve are LALDX, LBNDX, EVBAX, NEFZX, THIFX and TSIAX.
At this point … I am still pondering! But, thinking out what I might do.
@ Old_Skeet : Did the Xray break down foreign vs U.S. & to what type of bonds each MF holds. I was just wondering if that thinking was going into what you would be purchasing ? With the strength of the dollar, wouldn't foreign bonds be the way to go ? Good investing, Derf
Thanks for sharing your investing process down to its granular level. I get a lot out of your "tweaks" and your self reflection as I am sure you do as well.
Looking at your fund choices, you hold almost exclusively actively managed funds. My first thought is how good is your data on these funds? Mutual funds provide portfolio data that is often 3 month old and the manager may have already made the very same changes you seem most concerned with. In most cases a 90 day delay is not a problem, but for someone who tries to manage "managed funds" it can become troublesome. Have you given thought to holding some index funds or etfs? I fear at times you may get caught "out thinking" the manager who you hired to manage the fund.
Because of the 90 day delay in reporting it's hard to properly evaluate an active fund and a manager's portfolio in the short term. Basing forward moving decisions on "3 month old data" is a little like trying to drive a car down the road looking in the rear view mirror.
Thanking you both for making comment on my posting. I diffidently do not have all the answers and at times I will make a post to see what comments it might draw. This is one of those times.
In responding to Derf … The Xray that I use does not break out foreign from domestic bonds. However, this information is available in the fund’s Morningstar portfolio report detail along with the fund’s fact sheet. And, with the strong US Dollar I am thinking this would be a headwind against some foreign assets although for diversification purposes having some foreign holdings are desirable. How much is another mater. This is one of the reason I have been using some funds that have good flexibility to seek out opportunity.
This is leading me to thinking that I should add to EVBAX and TSIAX for both their domestic and foreign exposure. These two funds have good flexibility to position where income opportunity exists and EVBAX seems to be split about 50%/50% domestic/foreign while TSIAX is split about 60%/40% domestic/foreign. Indeed, some of the money will find its way into these two funds … and, I might have to venture over into my hybrid income sleeve for it to become part of the buy plan and look at PGBAX.
In responding to bee … My review is telling me I am short in bond holdings by about 2% to get to the minimum 25% required under my asset allocation mandate. I am leaning towards funds that I feel have a license to hunt wherever good value can be found. I am not trying to out think my managers but to buy funds that I feel can fill holes that I might have within my fixed income area. With respect to index funds I currently own two equity index funds IACLX & VADAX but no bond index funds. Every time I have compared the performance of an index bond fund to my active managed fixed income funds, well, the index funds have checked up short. I’d add a state specific tax fee muni fund but I am concerned that their longer duration would come back to bite me in a rising interest rate environment. Don’t plan to go there.
And, yes, because I am generally using dated information it does make it interesting when it comes to positioning and with this sometimes I just have to SWAG it.
Thanks again for making your comments. It is appreciated more than you might realize.
IACLX closely resembles the S&P 100 Index but uses an equal weighting format over being cap weighted much like VADAX follows the S&P 500 Index but is equal weighted over being cap weighted.
Wondering how I missed the rotation among the junk munis. The new stars there are ORNYX and PYMDX the later at YTD highs price wise. Still can't figure out what I am missing in AMAG and now since I own it and already increasing may find out the hard way.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
I don't owe this stock, but thought it worth mentioning.
Have been buying S&P 500 healthcare MLPs and silver....selling overseas (GAINX)....see no up side. Japan QE forever.....Europe, whatever it takes....Part 39 where the best blue skies and sunshine the world will buy our bonds and large caps so party on dudes!
the Pudd
Thus far on my special spiff that I opened during the October market swoon I am now up better than 8% almost 9%. On my gold position that I ventured into a couple weeks back and since I opened it, I have been building this position on a position cost average basis, I am up better than 6% on the position.
...............................................................................................................................................
I have copied and pasted my thoughst on gold below and what I have been doing from another thread.
Old_Skeet has started to nibble in the miners and recently opened a position in SGGDX which consists of about 70% miners and 20% gold bullion itself. In doing some research I am finding that the all in cost estimates to mine and produce an ounce of gold is about $1050.00. Some are saying gold could drop to $800.00 an ounce range and it might but I am finding this a little hard to believe. In addition, I am finding that all in cost estimates to mine and produce an ounce of silver are said by some to average about $19.00 to $20.00. Seems silver is currently selling below this at about $16.00 an ounce.
Since, I am a long term investor I feel the best time to start a position in something is when it is out of favor. Morningstar is showing that gold is about 30% undervalued in their Fair Market Valuation Graph which I have linked below. To view this click on the link below then click on the industry tab, then click on basic materials tab, then click on gold ... If this is correct and then by my math this puts the fair value on gold at about $1,500 an ounce.
Interestingly, the graph on silver is not currently working.
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
Perhaps, others that know more about the metals than I might make some comments on this.
...............................................................................................................................................
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
After getting realigned, I've got mo plays on in the silver juniors with ASM, SVM and MGN. Also picked up a little VA - Branson's a winner.
peace,
rono
Looking to get back into oil e&p if and when get sense that price of crude has stopped falling. Has it?
Maybe it has. Two indicators on my plot of $WTIC on StockCharts.com flipped to long as of COB 11/21.
In terms of real estate, I've been adding to BPY (which - warning - is an MLP), STWD (like management - Barry Sternlicht) and added to Colony Financial (CLNY), which is merging with its parent company. Blackstone (BX) is classified as private equity, but has a huge amount of global real estate. BX is also an MLP and is doing a spin-off next year of its advisory business.
One of the things that I have been pondering beyond my special investment position(s) consisting of a spiff investment position made during the October swoon and my opening of a starting position in a gold fund (SGGDX) is how are my hybrid funds found in the growth & income area of my portfolio are positioning in anticipation of a rising interest rate environment?
To help answer this I have began a study of each allocation fund that I own within this area. One of the things I have noticed is that one fund (TIBAX) has reduced its allocation to bonds down to 5%. I have two funds that are holding about 35% in bonds they are LABFX and IGPAX. Two of my American Funds’ holdings AMECX and CAIBX are holding 20% and 15% respectively in bonds while its balanced fund ABALX is holding 25%. HWIAX is holding 30% while DDIAX is holding only 15% in bonds. My hybrid real estate fund FRINX held within this area is holding 40% in bonds.
I carried this a little further and decided to seek the average which turned out to be about a 25% weighting to bonds. Interestingly, this is the weighting that ABALX holds. I can remember not too many years ago these sleeves were holding upwards of 35% to 40% in weightings to bonds.
In looking at the duration I am finding that it ranges from a high of 6.07 years in TIBAX but that fund only carries a five percent weighting in bonds. The fund with the lowest duration is DDIAX at 1.41 years and has a weighting of 15% to bonds. The average duration of the global hybrid sleeve is 4.44 years while the average of the domestic hybrid sleeve is 4.0 years as per Morningstar’s portfolio manager.
So what does all this mean? Form my thinking it means that combined the hybrid funds found within the growth and income area of the portfolio have, on average, reduced their weightings to bonds along with their duration which seem to bubble towards the low range found in intermediate term bond funds; but, have not yet fallen within the range found in most short duration and/or short term bond funds.
So what has been the effect to Old_Skeet’s asset allocation found in his master portfolio which is comprised of all twelve investment sleeves. In studying the whole portfolio through Xray it seems the bond area is at it lowest point that it has been in a long time. It looks as though for me to maintain my asset allocation at a minimum range for bonds at a weighting of 25% overall I am going to have to do some buying in my income sleeve. However, I am thinking I will wait until January comes and after my funds have made their yearend capital gains distributions. This will somewhat reduce my allocation to equities and raise my allocation to cash by a like dollar amount and might re-bubble my allocation to where little buying will be needed in the fixed income sleeve.
Currently, Morningstar’s Instant Xray is reflecting that bonds make up about 23% of my overall portfolio and my low threshold is set at 25%. With this, bonds are now at 92% of it lowest allowed allocation. Generally, I want do anything that falls 95% to 105% of low/high allocation range. So I might need to buy a sum equal to one percent of portfolio's total value to get within this range which would bring this percentage up to 24% and within 95% of the allowable low allocation.
Now comes the rebalance process and raises the question? Do I buy more of the bond funds that I already own or do I look for some new ones to possibly add to this sleeve? The funds that I currently own within my income sleeve are LALDX, LBNDX, EVBAX, NEFZX, THIFX and TSIAX.
At this point … I am still pondering! But, thinking out what I might do.
Old_Skeet
We still hold small cap value (VBR) https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1C37CJypoxHWHB09e3g25ewOGjP83wDZhj5j6tlrLJoA/edit#slide=id.g37353308c_00
The next allocation decision window comes in 3rd week of Jan 2015 for QQQ, and May 1 for VRB
Good investing, Derf
Thanks for sharing your investing process down to its granular level. I get a lot out of your "tweaks" and your self reflection as I am sure you do as well.
Looking at your fund choices, you hold almost exclusively actively managed funds. My first thought is how good is your data on these funds? Mutual funds provide portfolio data that is often 3 month old and the manager may have already made the very same changes you seem most concerned with. In most cases a 90 day delay is not a problem, but for someone who tries to manage "managed funds" it can become troublesome. Have you given thought to holding some index funds or etfs? I fear at times you may get caught "out thinking" the manager who you hired to manage the fund.
Because of the 90 day delay in reporting it's hard to properly evaluate an active fund and a manager's portfolio in the short term. Basing forward moving decisions on "3 month old data" is a little like trying to drive a car down the road looking in the rear view mirror.
Thanking you both for making comment on my posting. I diffidently do not have all the answers and at times I will make a post to see what comments it might draw. This is one of those times.
In responding to Derf … The Xray that I use does not break out foreign from domestic bonds. However, this information is available in the fund’s Morningstar portfolio report detail along with the fund’s fact sheet. And, with the strong US Dollar I am thinking this would be a headwind against some foreign assets although for diversification purposes having some foreign holdings are desirable. How much is another mater. This is one of the reason I have been using some funds that have good flexibility to seek out opportunity.
This is leading me to thinking that I should add to EVBAX and TSIAX for both their domestic and foreign exposure. These two funds have good flexibility to position where income opportunity exists and EVBAX seems to be split about 50%/50% domestic/foreign while TSIAX is split about 60%/40% domestic/foreign. Indeed, some of the money will find its way into these two funds … and, I might have to venture over into my hybrid income sleeve for it to become part of the buy plan and look at PGBAX.
In responding to bee … My review is telling me I am short in bond holdings by about 2% to get to the minimum 25% required under my asset allocation mandate. I am leaning towards funds that I feel have a license to hunt wherever good value can be found. I am not trying to out think my managers but to buy funds that I feel can fill holes that I might have within my fixed income area. With respect to index funds I currently own two equity index funds IACLX & VADAX but no bond index funds. Every time I have compared the performance of an index bond fund to my active managed fixed income funds, well, the index funds have checked up short. I’d add a state specific tax fee muni fund but I am concerned that their longer duration would come back to bite me in a rising interest rate environment. Don’t plan to go there.
And, yes, because I am generally using dated information it does make it interesting when it comes to positioning and with this sometimes I just have to SWAG it.
Thanks again for making your comments. It is appreciated more than you might realize.
Old_Skeet
IACLX closely resembles the S&P 100 Index but uses an equal weighting format over being cap weighted much like VADAX follows the S&P 500 Index but is equal weighted over being cap weighted.
Old_Skeet