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Not being a daily market observer, I don't have a feel for consolidation.
But I do have a statistical feeling for how the equity market will end this year. I use the S&P 500 as an equity market proxy because of its readily accessible database.
In early November, I update my annual projections to reflect current status. I use a Bayesian Conditional Probability approach.
Given the current S&P 500 return, I ask what are the chances of a less than zero percent returrn at the year's closure? Given the current nice status, I further ask what is the likelihood of a return that exceeds a plus 20 % this year?
I used historical average return and standard deviation data for the months of November and December for the reference Index.
I forecast something like a 2 % chance that the Index will erode to a negative outcome this year. I forecast that the likelihood of a 20 % return or greater is about 15 % for the S&P 500 Index.
I like the asymmetric tilt to these odds.
I do this annual exercise mostly to refresh my analysis skills. Its output will guide what and when I complete my required minimum portfolio withdrawals.
I see consolidation in most bond funds. The past 4 weeks have found a pattern that I will call "flat". This is a real condition and although I have used and enjoy Khan Academy for various topics; I don't need the site to modify what I see in reality.
I see consolidation in most bond funds. The past 4 weeks have found a pattern that I will call "flat". This is a real condition and although I have used and enjoy Khan Academy for various topics; I don't need the site to modify what I see in reality.
Bonds of all stripes and colors aren't looking real good. I've replaced almost all my junk munis with cash, AAPL, MSFT, SWKS, and a couple biotech stocks. Hoping bonds, be it junk corporates or junk munis, regain their mojo.
From Oct 15 when I posted the thread regarding the 10 yr moving below 2% and one of your replies:
"I e-mailed heezsafe yesterday in fact, albeit had no idea it could be as soon as today. I said if he sent me his address I would send him a check right away. If that doesn't suit him I can send the check to David and he can forward it. As some of you noticed in my original and unedited post I said on a closing basis. This will be a great teaching tool for me till the day I expire about not trading or investing based on what we think but what we see. Like most, at the beginning of the year I thought rates could go only higher. Even afterwards and I made the bet I thought they had already bottomed (around 2.34 or so) and were gradually heading back up and didn't think we would see 2%. You know what (not allowed to mention it here for awhile) is also roaring as it has since I made that bet but it is soooooo overbought now. I just hope today isn't some key reversal day before the close!!! It sure is looking like a key reversal in bondland so far based on where we were early this morning and now. I believe for a true key reversal day yields would have to close up by today's close. If that happened it could well be a key reversal day in equities if they ended up closing higher on the day. I really would like to pay off this wager!!!! Funny thing about these forums when you are dealing with nameless and faceless posters. Now watch heezsafe disappear for whatever reasons and never be heard from again and not try to collect.
I've continued to move monies into healthcare funds, ITOT and GASFX when the equity and energy sectors took a hit a few weeks. The monies have come from the IG bond areas for the most part. I have retained some HY bond funds; as well as LSBDX and PIMIX.
Actually, alot of the market; in many areas, looks really sloppy; to me and IMO only. It would be difficult, for me today; to direct an investor into a particular area that looks "good".
I see consolidation in most bond funds. The past 4 weeks have found a pattern that I will call "flat". This is a real condition and although I have used and enjoy Khan Academy for various topics; I don't need the site to modify what I see in reality.
Bonds of all stripes and colors aren't looking real good. I've replaced almost all my junk munis with cash, AAPL, MSFT, SWKS, and a couple biotech stocks. Hoping bonds, be it junk corporates or junk munis, regain their mojo.
My cat is named after the late Congressman, Joseph Wilson Ervin (member 79th Congress) who answers to Blackie (an all black male cat), came up with about the same year ending forecast on the S&P 500 as your cat ... 2,125. There must be something about these feline's ability to sense things? Heck, I'd settle for 2,100 and lets move the change over to 2015.
When further questioned ... Blackie answered, (Meow) which I take is an affimative as a hiss would have been in the negative.
And, Junkster ... I saw in my review of Morningstar's category returns where the high yield muni's were in a bit of a strugle and I was wondering (to myself) if you had made exit of these? Now, I know. Thanks for letting us know.
Where do you think your next action might be before year end? Or, are you going to wait for a good read and/or perhaps to 2015 before you venture into something?
Old_Skeet, as I mentioned, been venturing into tech, albeit only about 15% spread among AAPL, MSFT, and SWKS with a speculative play in IG. Feel I could be late to the party and don't want to hurt my 2014 returns. Stocks are not my forte. AAPL is my largest and went in the day it got hit that Cook announced he was gay. Thought its decline that day was a silly reaction to its CEO being gay. I buy only on down days in individual equities the opposite of what I do with funds. AAPL hasn't given me very many down days on which to buy recently, plus now its very overbought. I did buy a very small amount of corporate junk this week (BHYSX) I like that area but not sure the market does yet and not sure how long I will hang with that. Still hold a *very* small amount of EIHYX but as you said, it has been a struggle in junk muniland since that pivotal 10/15 day. Had I stuck 100% there I would not have been a happy camper.
Comments
Not being a daily market observer, I don't have a feel for consolidation.
But I do have a statistical feeling for how the equity market will end this year. I use the S&P 500 as an equity market proxy because of its readily accessible database.
In early November, I update my annual projections to reflect current status. I use a Bayesian Conditional Probability approach.
Given the current S&P 500 return, I ask what are the chances of a less than zero percent returrn at the year's closure? Given the current nice status, I further ask what is the likelihood of a return that exceeds a plus 20 % this year?
I used historical average return and standard deviation data for the months of November and December for the reference Index.
I forecast something like a 2 % chance that the Index will erode to a negative outcome this year. I forecast that the likelihood of a 20 % return or greater is about 15 % for the S&P 500 Index.
I like the asymmetric tilt to these odds.
I do this annual exercise mostly to refresh my analysis skills. Its output will guide what and when I complete my required minimum portfolio withdrawals.
Best Wishes.
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
https://www.khanacademy.org/computing/computer-science/cryptography/random-algorithms-probability/v/bayes-theorem-visualized
From Oct 15 when I posted the thread regarding the 10 yr moving below 2% and one of your replies:
"I e-mailed heezsafe yesterday in fact, albeit had no idea it could be as soon as today. I said if he sent me his address I would send him a check right away. If that doesn't suit him I can send the check to David and he can forward it. As some of you noticed in my original and unedited post I said on a closing basis. This will be a great teaching tool for me till the day I expire about not trading or investing based on what we think but what we see. Like most, at the beginning of the year I thought rates could go only higher. Even afterwards and I made the bet I thought they had already bottomed (around 2.34 or so) and were gradually heading back up and didn't think we would see 2%. You know what (not allowed to mention it here for awhile) is also roaring as it has since I made that bet but it is soooooo overbought now. I just hope today isn't some key reversal day before the close!!! It sure is looking like a key reversal in bondland so far based on where we were early this morning and now. I believe for a true key reversal day yields would have to close up by today's close. If that happened it could well be a key reversal day in equities if they ended up closing higher on the day. I really would like to pay off this wager!!!! Funny thing about these forums when you are dealing with nameless and faceless posters. Now watch heezsafe disappear for whatever reasons and never be heard from again and not try to collect.
I've continued to move monies into healthcare funds, ITOT and GASFX when the equity and energy sectors took a hit a few weeks. The monies have come from the IG bond areas for the most part. I have retained some HY bond funds; as well as LSBDX and PIMIX.
Actually, alot of the market; in many areas, looks really sloppy; to me and IMO only.
It would be difficult, for me today; to direct an investor into a particular area that looks "good".
Up at 6am tomorrow...........pillow time now !!!
Take care,
Catch
Good hearing from you and thanks for the update.
Mona
My cat is named after the late Congressman, Joseph Wilson Ervin (member 79th Congress) who answers to Blackie (an all black male cat), came up with about the same year ending forecast on the S&P 500 as your cat ... 2,125. There must be something about these feline's ability to sense things? Heck, I'd settle for 2,100 and lets move the change over to 2015.
When further questioned ... Blackie answered, (Meow) which I take is an affimative as a hiss would have been in the negative.
And, Junkster ... I saw in my review of Morningstar's category returns where the high yield muni's were in a bit of a strugle and I was wondering (to myself) if you had made exit of these? Now, I know. Thanks for letting us know.
Where do you think your next action might be before year end? Or, are you going to wait for a good read and/or perhaps to 2015 before you venture into something?
Old_Skeet
Thats for your reply.
Old_Skeet