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Agree with Scott - who understands this stuff better than I do.
Don't know if anybody caught the expert on NBR last evening who thinks Saudi Arabia and other big Middle-East producers are dumping oil on the markets to force the higher cost U.S. fracking operations to become unprofitable and close down. Just one theory, but makes some sense to me.
Oil moves in large multi-year swings. So, I'd caution anyone against trying to make a quick dollar on it. But if you can wait a few years for your payout, I'm of the belief it's one of the better opportunities right now. Unfortunately, as equity prices collapse, energy and everything else will go down as well. (No place to run...No place to hide. Katie bar the door.)
(In terms of funds, most natural resource funds are heavily weighted towards oil and tend to move with it.)
"Souki stated, "I think the price of oil could go to $70, and maybe even lower. You need to look at will the U.S. export oil or not, because we seemed to be saturated with staying in the United States right now. The infrastructure simply cannot take the oil anymore from production to the refineries. We have saturated the ability to move one place to another."
@Scott: $60-$70 would not surprise me. It would likely take a rebound in economic activity around the world to jar it higher. An unusually cold winter might help as well.
@Scott: $60-$70 would not surprise me. It would likely take a rebound in economic activity around the world to jar it higher. An unusually cold winter might help as well.
True. Also, in terms of the Saudis and oil becoming political, it would not surprise me. However, I do think (if I remember correctly), they need the price in the $80 range in terms of being able to balance their general budget. Maybe they can be tactical for a while in order to push on competition, but I think the world oil markets are too complex for someone to dial them up and down without the potential of something getting disorderly. The idea of oil being heavily politicized as a tactical tool (against Russia?) is concerning from the possibility that, in the end, maybe no one wins.
Is it good for consumers? That's what was said in 2008, too. It depends what is really going on underneath - if this is signaling lower global demand, supply issues or that oil is being used as a political tool.
How cynical! You really think that the Saudis, Iraqis, Kurds, Russians, Chinese, Venezuelans or Americans would ever resort to that sort of thing?
It works until it doesn't and when it doesn't, it likely gets disorderly (possibly because one of the players gets backed into a corner?) If it is the case with multiple countries participating, it also feels desperate. Maybe it's being driven lower in advance of another QE - what would that make this one, #4 or #5?
I'm on sale. Please send me $9.99 a month and I will tell you what to buy / sell
I hope everyone has created shopping list. Personally I will start buying a little at 10% down if it keeps falling DCA every 5-10% further. Know what you are buying and how much you want to put in each position. Some MFs have high minimums, so those I will not buy until 20% decline off highs.
I have been steadily selling and generating cash. Wish I had sold more, but that's hindsight. However I'm glad I sold. I can confidently say today I am not in love with ANY of my holdings.
Here's a sampling of my shopping list: BRAGX, BRSIX, SEEDX, GOODX, BVOAX, PROVX, TSELX, TFSSX, MXXVX.
Comments
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COP
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CVX
Anything commodity related, really. MLPs.
REITS holding up well. O up yet again, remarkably.
Don't know if anybody caught the expert on NBR last evening who thinks Saudi Arabia and other big Middle-East producers are dumping oil on the markets to force the higher cost U.S. fracking operations to become unprofitable and close down. Just one theory, but makes some sense to me.
Oil moves in large multi-year swings. So, I'd caution anyone against trying to make a quick dollar on it. But if you can wait a few years for your payout, I'm of the belief it's one of the better opportunities right now. Unfortunately, as equity prices collapse, energy and everything else will go down as well. (No place to run...No place to hide. Katie bar the door.)
(In terms of funds, most natural resource funds are heavily weighted towards oil and tend to move with it.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102087871
Is it good for consumers? That's what was said in 2008, too. It depends what is really going on underneath - if this is signaling lower global demand, supply issues or that oil is being used as a political tool.
How cynical! You really think that the Saudis, Iraqis, Kurds, Russians, Chinese, Venezuelans or Americans would ever resort to that sort of thing?
I hope everyone has created shopping list. Personally I will start buying a little at 10% down if it keeps falling DCA every 5-10% further. Know what you are buying and how much you want to put in each position. Some MFs have high minimums, so those I will not buy until 20% decline off highs.
I have been steadily selling and generating cash. Wish I had sold more, but that's hindsight. However I'm glad I sold. I can confidently say today I am not in love with ANY of my holdings.
Here's a sampling of my shopping list: BRAGX, BRSIX, SEEDX, GOODX, BVOAX, PROVX, TSELX, TFSSX, MXXVX.