Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"A jolt to international confidence in central banks will lead to a 30 to 60 percent market decline, said David Tice, president of Tice Capital and founder of the Prudent Bear Fund."
"This crash will be precipitated, he said, by a disillusionment with the Federal Reserve's "confidence game," which will then see inflation rise, and the Fed scramble to raise rates. At that point, Tice added, "the Fed starts to lose control.""
"Another market watcher also called for an impending fall.
The Fed's low interest rates could bring a "scary" 50-60 percent market correction, said technical analyst Abigail Doolittle."
"Unfortunately, I think it could come on a crash similar to what happened in 2007," Doolittle.... said on " Squawk Box " .......... "It's tough to know what the exact catalyst will be. But that's the very nature of that kind of selloff. They start slowly and then happen very suddenly."
Also on CNBC in the past few months has been Harry Dent, who says the Dow will fall to 6,000 by the end of 2015.
I forget... old age is great... what does "B A" stand for again? I seem to recall something about cows and art, but can't quite make a connection there...
Hey wait a second. The only thing important right now is IF market drops 60%, then everyone needs to pay homage to me. You guys are making all the wrong points even though they are the right points.
Gah, I hope he really believes it. 60%, bwahahaha. Just imagine the value ratios then. I would draw amap on my home equity line and margin my poor Fido and ML accounts amap to buy. This is comical, but would be totes awesome.
Won't happen. Grandma Yellen will fire up QE again long before that kind of decline. If the Fed loses control that's a whole other story.
Interesting tidbit: interest rate in Weimar Germany in 1914-21: 5%. In 1922, it goes from 5% to 12%. By the Fall of 1923, its 90%. By the end of 1923, 900%.
German stock market at 97 in January 1919. German stock market at 26,890,000 at the peak in 1923.
Interesting tidbit: interest rate in Weimar Germany in 1914-21: 5%. In 1922, it goes from 5% to 12%. By the Fall of 1923, its 90%. By the end of 1923, 900%.
German stock market at 97 in January 1919. German stock market at 26,890,000 at the peak in 1923.
@scott: do you have a reference you can share with those figures about the German stock market, German interest rates?
Interesting tidbit: interest rate in Weimar Germany in 1914-21: 5%. In 1922, it goes from 5% to 12%. By the Fall of 1923, its 90%. By the end of 1923, 900%.
German stock market at 97 in January 1919. German stock market at 26,890,000 at the peak in 1923.
@scott: do you have a reference you can share with those figures about the German stock market, German interest rates?
thanks
Should have done that but forgot (early, I guess.)
I could predict that the Buffalo Bills will win the 2015 Super Bowl. If I'm correct, I can remind everyone. If I'm incorrect, nobody will remember.
That's the irony of it. Get in the press by saying something. If it turns out bad, WE let them get away with it. We should not. If it turns out good, then one gets MORE press. Its a win win for them, but we should make it a lose lose for them.
Someone suggested if there was a way on MFO to track all the BAs, it will be good. I second that. Bailey to Grantham to Tice - no discrimination.
It goes both ways. In the spring of 1999, I was posting – on the Silicon Investor board - that I was prepared for a market crash. I was verbally trashed as a crank and doomsayer.
I estimated, but did not predict, that it would happen in the fall of that year. I was wrong. When the market started its downturn in 2000, people were screaming that this was a fantastic buying opportunity. The sad part of this - they were buying the tech stocks that had lead the market to its 1999 highs. Meanwhile, I had sold them my tech stocks and was net short.
And it repeated in November 2007 when I told a conference of 200+ investors that the market was nearing a critical point and showed them the exit signals to watch.
Don’t misunderstand – I did not predict these crashes. But crashes, like heart attacks, have warning signs.
bee, Presently I'm not anticipating a large downturn. But here's my concern about posting this sort of information - a good number of the traditional conservative, diversified, long-tern investors here have gotten their panties in a bunch when I've discussed this in the past. I hear, "Every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room" and "But you not only have to decide when to get out, you also have to know when to get back in - that means you have to make TWO correct decisions."
If you can tell me how to send you a Private Message, I'll gladly discuss this with you.
@AKAFlack: "f you can tell me how to send you a Private Message, I'll gladly discuss this with you." Would you be so kind as to discuss it with the entire MFO Board. How much of a downturn do you anticipate, 5%, 10%, 20%. ? Regards, Ted Regards, Ted
But I'm guessing there are more ships above water that also have a chart room. Maybe how one reads the charts has something to do with the ship staying above/below water.
It is amazing that BEARX still has $450 million in assets. Of course, given its performance that will steadily shrink over time even if there are no outflows.
It is amazing that BEARX still has $450 million in assets. Of course, given its performance that will steadily shrink over time even if there are no outflows.
Sorry but I do not understandn what. we find surprising about this. People make calls. Some bullish, Some bearish. Then they invest accordingly.
This is the same argument on whether one should invest in VFINX or LMVTX. Should one invest in BEARX or BRPIX. Some chose VFINX and USPIX. Others chose LMVTX and BEARX. Sometimes they win and people praise them. Then they stink up the place and people pan them. We never say VFINX and BRPIX suck because they are the "benchmarks".
If you can tell me how to send you a Private Message, I'll gladly discuss this with you.
@AKAFlack : just click on my 'name', rjb112. I believe that should take you to a 'rectangle' to send me a PM.
I'd like to hear all about it.
"In the spring of 1999, I was posting – on the Silicon Investor board - that I was prepared for a market crash. I was verbally trashed as a crank and doomsayer."
IMHO, it's totally inappropriate to be verbally trashed. IMHO, we don't want an MFO that only has bullish viewpoints and doesn't accept bearish viewpoints. Remember, all the bearish viewpoints were correct prior to all the bear markets and downturns.
"When the market started its downturn in 2000....."Meanwhile, I had sold them my tech stocks and was net short".
Good move, congrats.
"And it repeated in November 2007 when I told a conference of 200+ investors that the market was nearing a critical point and showed them the exit signals to watch.
Don’t misunderstand – I did not predict these crashes."
Did you exit the market at that time, and sidestep the -55% total return maximum drawdown?
Comments
"This crash will be precipitated, he said, by a disillusionment with the Federal Reserve's "confidence game," which will then see inflation rise, and the Fed scramble to raise rates. At that point, Tice added, "the Fed starts to lose control.""
"Another market watcher also called for an impending fall.
The Fed's low interest rates could bring a "scary" 50-60 percent market correction, said technical analyst Abigail Doolittle."
"Unfortunately, I think it could come on a crash similar to what happened in 2007," Doolittle.... said on " Squawk Box " .......... "It's tough to know what the exact catalyst will be. But that's the very nature of that kind of selloff. They start slowly and then happen very suddenly."
Also on CNBC in the past few months has been Harry Dent, who says the Dow will fall to 6,000 by the end of 2015.
B.A. in Philosophy, some work in financial planning and a lot more in getting attention and raising money.
(sigh)
David
Old_Skeet
I think this illustrates how all of us tend to create our own reality. So, I'd guess Tice really believes this.
Let's all focus please.
BEARX Performance:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=BEARX®ion=usa&culture=en-US
Regarding Abigail Doolittle (Chartist): Every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room.
Regards,
Tee
Interesting tidbit: interest rate in Weimar Germany in 1914-21: 5%. In 1922, it goes from 5% to 12%. By the Fall of 1923, its 90%. By the end of 1923, 900%.
German stock market at 97 in January 1919. German stock market at 26,890,000 at the peak in 1923.
thanks
http://www.nowandfutures.com/us_weimar.html
As for the above link, I'd ignore the attempts at comparison but instead focus on the timeline that shows how quickly the situation escalated.
Someone suggested if there was a way on MFO to track all the BAs, it will be good. I second that. Bailey to Grantham to Tice - no discrimination.
In the spring of 1999, I was posting – on the Silicon Investor board - that I was prepared for a market crash.
I was verbally trashed as a crank and doomsayer.
I estimated, but did not predict, that it would happen in the fall of that year.
I was wrong.
When the market started its downturn in 2000, people
were screaming that this was a fantastic buying opportunity.
The sad part of this - they were buying the tech stocks that had lead the market to its 1999 highs.
Meanwhile, I had sold them my tech stocks and was net short.
And it repeated in November 2007 when I told a conference of
200+ investors that the market was nearing a critical point and showed them the exit signals to watch.
Don’t misunderstand – I did not predict these crashes.
But crashes, like heart attacks, have warning signs.
Happy investing.
Presently I'm not anticipating a large downturn.
But here's my concern about posting this sort of information - a good number
of the traditional conservative, diversified, long-tern investors here
have gotten their panties in a bunch when I've discussed this in the past.
I hear, "Every ship at the bottom of the ocean has a chart room" and
"But you not only have to decide when to get out, you also have to know when to get back in - that means you have to make TWO correct decisions."
If you can tell me how to send you a Private Message, I'll gladly
discuss this with you.
discuss this with you." Would you be so kind as to discuss it with the entire MFO Board. How much of a downturn do you anticipate, 5%, 10%, 20%. ?
Regards,
Ted
Regards,
Ted
This is the same argument on whether one should invest in VFINX or LMVTX. Should one invest in BEARX or BRPIX. Some chose VFINX and USPIX. Others chose LMVTX and BEARX. Sometimes they win and people praise them. Then they stink up the place and people pan them. We never say VFINX and BRPIX suck because they are the "benchmarks".
We are not most people. Check!
I'd like to hear all about it.
"In the spring of 1999, I was posting – on the Silicon Investor board - that I was prepared for a market crash.
I was verbally trashed as a crank and doomsayer."
IMHO, it's totally inappropriate to be verbally trashed. IMHO, we don't want an MFO that only has bullish viewpoints and doesn't accept bearish viewpoints. Remember, all the bearish viewpoints were correct prior to all the bear markets and downturns.
"When the market started its downturn in 2000....."Meanwhile, I had sold them my tech stocks and was net short".
Good move, congrats.
"And it repeated in November 2007 when I told a conference of
200+ investors that the market was nearing a critical point and showed them the exit signals to watch.
Don’t misunderstand – I did not predict these crashes."
Did you exit the market at that time, and sidestep the -55% total return maximum drawdown?
If so, congrats again.
Send me a PM.....