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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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Best market or sector to invest now, emerging, broad U.S., real estate, International, health

If you have cash to invest, where do you see best opportunity or stay in cash and wait.


  • beebee
    edited August 2014
    Frontier markets (using TRAMX and WAFMX) showing strong mo (momentum)

    EM seems like a mixed bag:
    -MAKOX (Korea), EWW (Mexico) both showing strong mo (making new highs)
    -LC China seems to be coming off recent lows (MCHFX) yet, small companies (MCSMX) and dividend investor (MCDFX) showing strong mo.
    -India (MINDX) has had very strong performance (86% above it's 52wk low), yet almost 2% off it's recent high (I'm monitoring this number more closely these days)
    -Russia has thrown funds like TREMX (EM Europe) and even PRESX (Europe) into a temporary tailspin...might be worth looking for a point where things improve and reverse direction.
    -Egypt and Turkey get thrown around for similar reasons based on the Middle East's turmoils

    RE I haven't overweighted, but hold as a diversifier to my other investments...performance seems interest rate sensitive to me...having a good year so far as LT treasuries moved lower. I own VNQ and PETDX. FIREX is a tamer way to get RE exposure.

    Buy healthcare for the long term...lots of flavors these days so do your research. I own VHT and PRHSX. Here's a recent thread where others have chimed in HC:

    I like of a good broad tech fund (USNQX) long term as well.

    Look for Coal to fill the energy voids created by energy's the dirty energy, but it is cheap and plentiful.

  • As I noted in the other thread, buy healthcare and just own it.

    I don't own any coal plays, but the only one that would interest me if I was looking is Westshore Terminals (, Canada's leading coal export terminal. We may not want coal, but other countries apparently do:

    "Westshore will remain basically fully booked for capacity through 2014, 2015 and into 2016 (with a rated capacity of 33 million tonnes per annum) until such time as the $275 million new equipment upgrades are installed and become operational, and which will result in modest capacity improvements at the terminal, anticipated to commence in 2017 through early 2019."
  • I tend to look at most things from a big picture longer term perspective. With that in mind the places I would put new money don't change much over time, and those are emerging and frontier markets, small cap stocks generally and I try to be overweight healthcare specifically either as a result of the mutual funds I choose or by investing directly through a fund or specific stocks. That being said, right now I would prefer to average in to things that I expect to be longer term investments rather than investing everything at once. If and when there are decent pullbacks I would use the weakness to invest more or if there are no decent pullbacks I would just add on some periodic basis, usually monthly for me, and live with the outcome.

    In the case of coal I have been reading that the lows seem to be holding and there is some belief that if the Republicans win control of both the House and Senate in November that the pressure on coal may be relieved a bit. I have no investments in coal per se and I'm not sure I'll make any but my reading suggests others feel like its worth some interest.
  • With the gains India has enjoyed, if you have held that fund throughout the latest bull market, I just might sweep profits off that.
  • Looks like Egypt might be a winner with it's lastest trade deal with Russia:

    " Amid Moscow’s full ban of EU, US, Australian, Canadian, and Norwegian food exports to Russia, Egypt said it is ready to boost agricultural deliveries to Russia by 30 percent, Putin said. Moscow imposed sanctions on August 7 for one year in response to Western restrictions imposed on Russia over the Ukraine crisis.

    An increase of deliveries of citrus fruits, potatoes and onions from Egypt by 30 percent will close half of a possible deficit..."
  • @Ted I'd be interested to know how Sam and Art's prognostications have played out over the years. Do you know of any reference material?
  • "Egypt said it is ready to boost agricultural deliveries to Russia by 30 percent, Putin said."

    Very interesting to hear that Egypt has an extra 30% capacity just sitting there ready to go whenever needed. Or would they perhaps need to divert existing supply capacity from someplace else to Russia? In which case that "someplace else" would need to obtain what they need from... wait for this... whoever is now sending stuff to Russia but won't be in the immediate future because of the political plays. The wheel turns...
  • beebee
    edited August 2014
    Egypt already has a trade free zone with Europe:
    The World needs the middleman:
  • Old_Joe said:

    "Egypt said it is ready to boost agricultural deliveries to Russia by 30 percent, Putin said."

    Very interesting to hear that Egypt has an extra 30% capacity just sitting there ready to go whenever needed.

    Do the citizens of Egypt really have such a plentiful, inexpensive supply of food that the country can afford to ship out 30% to Russia?

    Sure doesn't look that way from the videos we see of Egypt on the news.
  • At the end of last year and especially the beginning of this year, emerging markets stocks got slammed. I don't recall the date, but there was a big inflection point sometime this year, and after that emerging markets stocks haven't looked back. There have been an incredible number of days since then that emerging markets stocks have diverged significantly (to the upside) from both foreign developed markets and US stocks. Seems like a good very long term investment. It's also the area that GMO/Jeremy Grantham say has the best 7-year outlook going forward
  • @rkb112,
    I concur but I limit my EM allocation within my risk tolerance.
  • edited August 2014
    Domestic Energy/Heath-Bio$FOCA$LP.aspx$FOCA$EE.aspx$FOCA$SH.aspx

    An Economist's Perspective From Mesirow Financial's Diane C Swonk
    "I debate with my colleagues on economics,
    politics and psychology about the nature
    of the changes that we are seeing: if they
    are “cyclical,” then the effects of the
    changes will be short-lived, and over within
    a few months or quarters; or, if they
    “structural,”then the effects of what we are
    seeing will take much longer to play out;
    it will take years to see the full impact and
    could affect the lives of our children as well
    as ourselves. This report takes a closer look at some of
    the structural changes that we see emerging,
    and how they are likely to affect the pace
    and composition of growth going forward.
    Technically we have shifted from a recovery
    into an expansion. Waiting for a more
    pronounced recovery, however, has been a
    bit like waiting for Godot. Much of that
    is because of the structural shifts we are
    seeing in everything from a slowdown
    across emerging markets, most notably in
    China, to the ongoing challenges that the
    Eurozone faces, and what those shifts mean
    for monetary policy."
    CHICAGO, August 13, 2014 – In the August issue of Themes on the Economy®, Mesirow Financial' s Chief Economist Diane Swonk muses on economic challenges and burdens that baby boomers are leaving for the millennial generation. "This will no doubt trigger some backlash, particularly among younger workers who will have to pay more into the system to keep the promises made, but they will not get much (if anything) in government-sponsored retirement benefits for themselves."

    And, don't look to make it up in stock market, technology or housing bubbles; the Federal Reserve is keeping a much closer eye on the banks it regulates. Chair Janet "Yellen has talked about higher capital requirements and more conservative underwriting standards as ways that the Fed could deflate emerging bubbles. She has also praised the use of regulations targeted at tempering the rise in home prices..." The Fed plans to exit its QE3 program gradually, but the "fear is that the economy is more sensitive to rate hikes now than it was in the past. If the Fed acts too aggressively, it risks leveling the whole forest."

    The picture looks different in other parts of the world, too. China will still represent opportunity but competition as well, and not just on the economic front, as it increases military spending. Swonk also cautions that, "stability in the Eurozone is illusory," with "the ongoing risk of deflation" and the effects on sovereign debt.

    Everything is Good!
    Tonight's Headline
    Shares, bonds rally as investors bank on ENDLESS stimulus.
    Reuters By By Wayne Cole
    2 hours ago
  • TSP, thanks for that piece. Very informative. What Diane says about the millenials angst towards the boomers is not just an issue in the US, Australia's young people are also wondering how they will afford a house and where the jobs will come from. Australia has a long history of union jobs and that is being broken up by outsourcing and the death of manufacturing as we know it.
  • I think it is common knowledge I have stopped thinking that way long time back. I am gravitating from market risk to manager risk. In taxable accounts when I feel like investing I add to managers I "know". In 401ks I use index funds. In IRA I have a set of tactical/balanced/income funds I seldom touch.
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