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The following technique for making money in the market seems almost sure fire

jerry
in Fund Discussions
That is not a statement that it will outperform any index just that it will show a gain over a specific period of time

step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high
At that point dollar cost average into a 500 fund over the next 36 months and sell in the fourth year once you have achieved long term gains on your investments. It is possible that this did not work for some past date other than starting in 1970 and selling in 1974 but I have trouble thinking of one.(and am not sure the market had dropped 30% in 69-70

Comments

  • scott
    The thought that I had once was to buy the Pimco long stock fund and short stock fund in equal amounts, effectively cancelling each other out, then take the frequent distributions. However, the enormous distributions that the Pimco funds have often thrown off may come and go. So, I dunno.
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    Hindsight is always 20/20 folks. I had lasik done so it is 20/15. Good luck to all of us and hope S&P does not drop 30% and then we don't have to sell, ever. THAT will make more money:P
  • heezsafe
    @jerry
    re. step1. Yes, PLEASE. And if it would not be too much to ask, could you or one of your insider contacts get that going sometime before summer's end? A return to a more fundamentals pricing policy would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance, xxxxxxx

    @VintageFreak
    Your lasik surgery resulted in 20/15 hindsight? Remarkable--- must be hella implants!
    But now, additional meanings will have to be given to 2 phrases:
    1. "Objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear."
    2. "Hey, buddy, you've got it back-ass-wards," [to which you can reply, "Why, yes, indeed I do!":) ]
  • STB65
    Although I had never given any real consideration to the phrase: "20/20 hindsight", which really only means normal vision, I now realize that hindsight is at least 20/10, perhaps 20/5, maybe even 20/2. In the future, I will claim at least 20/10 even with my developing cataracts.
    What I really need is the gene that provides better than 20/20 foresight, which I think equals index returns.
    Does anyone besides me think this is off-topic?
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    heezsafe said:


    @VintageFreak
    Your lasik surgery resulted in 20/15 hindsight? Remarkable--- must be hella implants!
    But now, additional meanings will have to be given to 2 phrases:
    1. "Objects in the rear view mirror may be closer than they appear."
    2. "Hey, buddy, you've got it back-ass-wards," [to which you can reply, "Why, yes, indeed I do!":) ]

    But seriously, unless you had a number of like -20 something, lasik should give you 20/15, or you need to ask your money back. At night, feels like "less" light penetrating into the eye. I feel I have to be VERY alert eyes open wide driving at night. Of course, it could be psychological. I did it because I was very ticked off losing my glasses during a very overdue vacation at the beach, came back and did it very next weekend. If I had thought about it, I probably wouldn't have. I'm already so good looking doesn't make much difference:P

    Now REALLY seriously, how many moving average crossovers, and drawdown % buy/sell surefire formulas do we need? It would seem every so often we have these discussions looking at the past and try to predict the future. Sorry, but that's nuts.
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    >> step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high

    How many buying opps does this represent? I am having trouble reading the history.
  • VintageFreakVintageFreak
    davidrmoran said:

    >> step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high

    How many buying opps does this represent? I am having trouble reading the history.

    Seriously, stop trying:D. Why do we do this to ourselves?
  • jerry
    davidrmoran said:

    >> step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high

    How many buying opps does this represent? I am having trouble reading the history.

    davidrmoran said:

    >> step 1 Do nothing until the $+P 500 drops 30% from its most recent high

    How many buying opps does this represent? I am having trouble reading the history.

    OK,will try to defend myself though I don't mind criticism. All of us know people who are afraid to invest of the stock market for fear of loss.We often suggest they dip their toe in but we are afraid to strongly encourage them because of our fear that we will make them invest just in time to have their head handed to them.I am basically suggesting that if we wait fora 30% dip and follow with dollar cost averaging it seems unlikely that this investment will show a loss.. While past performance etc etc. if such a strategy only failed during the south sea bubble there is a good chance that we will not make our friend unhappy with us.
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