Sold a little Gibson Energy (GBNXF.PK), added a little to Abbott Labs (ABT). Continued to get rid of more Pimco L/S. Added to Agrium (AGU) a few days ago. May add to Diageo (DEO) and may add a little to Brookfield Property Partners (BPY) now that dividends finally can be reinvested in that (note: BPY does result in a K-1 at tax time.) May add to Marketfield (MFLDX) on its weakness lately.
Really no new ideas at all and not interested in adding to most positions at this point.
Comments
No changes I think since last post, when I let a couple micro caps SENEA and JBSS go. Moved that money into BAC when dropped below $15.
Right now, stock holdings are BAC, AA, SCHN, GE, APA, HCP. Of these, I believe only SCHN is below 10 mo SMA.
Funds remain WBMIX, FAAFX, SIGIX, DODGX, and RSIIX.
Had eye on couple businesses in health, GTIV and CHE. But former now in M&A and latter just keeps going up
Still like energy, TSO, DNR, DVN. Own piece of CHK through FAAFX, but uncomfortable with CHK's management.
Coal and gold can't seem to get any respect these days...BTU, ACI, NEM.
Have thought about AEO and GM, but can't muster any interest in either sector.
Hey, what do you think of NDAQ?
And, why ABT?
Honestly, my value screen has never been shorter!
In a way, I think the exchanges are at least basically interesting from the standpoint of relative dominance and that business model I like, where there's a few dominant companies that own the "toll road" (credit cards, rail, exchanges.) The reason why I went with Intercontinental Exchange was the diversification of NYSE, as well as futures exchanges not only in the US, but multiple countries (such as their recent purchase of the Singapore Mercantile Exchange.)
Nasdaq hasn't done that well over the last five years (Facebook, the nearly day-long outage a little while back, loss of IPO's to NYSE)
In terms of IPO's:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/18/alibaba-is-the-latest-battle-in-war-of-nasdaq-v-nyse/
At this point after not doing well for a couple of years, Nasdaq doesn't seem as reasonable, but it's still trading at around book. Not something I would buy at this point, but probably not a terrible long-term idea if you think they can turn things around. I just like ICE's diversification more. Nasdaq would also have to improve management - some of the situations that have gone wrong for Nasdaq weren't handled well and there didn't seem to be any discussion of changes.
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"Coal and gold can't seem to ever get any respect these days...BTU, ACI, NEM."
In terms of coal, what seems to be doing well is Westshore Terminals, the Canadian coal shipping terminal company. We may be trying to not use coal in this country, but it's being shipped elsewhere. (chart: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=WTSHF+Interactive#symbol=WTSHF;range=5y)
Westshore is operating at full capacity, to the point where they are turning business away.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/us-coal-curbs-would-boost-westshore-terminals-traffic/article18981284/
"B.C.’s biggest coal export facility, Westshore Terminals Ltd., is operating at full capacity and regularly turns away business from U.S. coal producers that want to get their product to export markets. A $275-million upgrade now under way may provide some breathing room. But it likely won’t be enough to suit American producers keen to find new customers if proposed U.S. regulations reduce domestic demand."
So, while coal companies are having difficulty in this country with regulations and other issues, a terminal to ship it elsewhere (in a neighboring country, no less) it stuffed with US and Canadian business to the point where they're turning business away.
I don't own Westshore, but I've looked at it. I don't really love owning stocks that essentially revolve around one entity (TNH, UAN and sort of NTI being MLP examples of that.)
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"Own piece of CHK through FAAFX, but uncomfortable with CHK's management.'
I owned it briefly, but sold in favor of other, more sleep well at night energy names. Probably sold too quickly, but wasn't a large position and not regretting the move. I think eventually something gets done with CHK being sold or broken up (Icahn, Southeastern, Vanguard and Capital World own over 30% alone, with Icahn and SE owning about 20% by themselves), but I do think it should be done sooner than later. Company was charged a day or two ago with racketeering and fraud by Michigan (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-05/chesapeake-energy-faces-new-charges-over-michigan-leases.html?cmpid=yhoo)
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One other reasonable value that I've considered that comes to mind is Tim Horton's (THI), but I just don't have enough interest in the business.
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"Have thought about AEO and GM, but can't muster any interest in either sector. "
I wouldn't invest in teen retailers with someone else's money. I absolutely think that one or more of these names will not be around in a few years (or probably less.) As bad as some of these names have done, I still wouldn't go anywhere near them.
The only clothing name I would have invest in if I had to pick one is Fast Retailing (FRCOY), but missed the move on that when I was looking at it in the $20's (although it's down quite a bit from its high.) In terms of US companies, I think long-term Urban Outfitters probably fares fine, but I emphasize long-term.
I have no interest in GM with what is going on. I've had some interest in the auto sector, but haven't done anything. I thought about auto tech company Valeo (VLEEY) in the $50's, but it seemed too expensive already. Oops ($72 now). Johnson Controls (JCI) was also kinda/sorta on my radar.
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"And, why ABT?"
Abbott's boring nature is appealing in some regards (it lost 2.5% in 2008), but I also like its serious emphasis on emerging markets, which are already a significant portion of revenue and are forecast to increase in the coming years (more than 40% of revenue from EM as of last year and they just made a major purchase of an EM pharma company the other day.) I also like their dominance in nutritional products, with a larger senior population buying things like Ensure. You also have pediatric formula likely increasing in use in EM. To me, it's a large, relatively boring and consistent play with significant (and increasing) emphasis on EM. It's something that I really don't have to think about day-to-day and probably one of the biggest examples I have of a long-term, get it/forget it holding.
About a year ago I started a new position within the growth area (global sleeve) in an emerging market fund DEMAX which I have been buying in steps and I just finished building this position out. Thus far this has turned out to have been a good move.
Another position that I opened in the growth area (large/mid cap sleeve) of my portfolio at the first part of the year was in a low p/e ratio mutual fund that seems to follow a deep discount theme and that fund is HWAAX. I am one step away from building out phase one purchase targets. In time, I may open phase two purchase targets in this fund as the market at the moment seems to be a little too pricey. Thus far, this has turned out to be a good move.
Another position that I opened another phase of purchase in at the first of the year was in the income sleeve of my portfolio and that was in a strategic income fund TSIAX. This position is still under construction as I have been averaging in and only a few steps away from phase three build out. Thus far this also has been a good move.
In addition, I have been watching my overall asset allocation of my portfolio to maintain my target allocation within certain ranges. Currently, I am a little overweight equities by about five percent from my target allocation even though I feel equities as a whole are overbought. In checking with M*’s Market Valuation Graph, which I have linked below, is showing equities are selling at about a four percent premium. http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx In addition, it seems the world is largerly overbought too. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/6/5/the-world-is-overbought.html?printerFriendly=true
Another thing, I have been following is Ron Rowland’s Leadership Strategy to see what assets he favors within this strategy. I have linked the strategy at the end of this paragraph. I compare my most recent Instant Xray report of my portfolio to Mr. Rowland’s strategy report to see how the assets held within my portfolio compare to those that he favors within the strategy. Currently his listed favored assets (those that are listed as a buy and/or a hold) make up better than sixty five percent from a style orientation of my portfolio. This tells me that from a style orientation my portfolio is by the large part positioned in the faster moving market currents (a value tilt at the moment) as the Strategy is momentum based. http://investwithanedge.com/leadership-strategy Also, I am a weekly reader of Mr. Rowland's newsletter ... Invest With An Edge. I have provided a link to its archives should you like to reference the current and past editions. http://investwithanedge.com/newsletter-archives
This is not everything that I have been doing within my portfolio but these would be considered my big three and thus far all three have produced good results. I believe this is enough to establish that I believe in and practice some active management within my portfolio. In comparison, my portfolio year-to-date is up about 6.0% and its bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up about 4.8%. With this, Old_Skeet plans to keep on keeping-on with his twelve sleeve investment system which is currently comprised of about fifty funds.
My best three performing funds year-to-date are THOAX (12.99%) ... TOLLX (12.29%) ... and, SVAAX (10.45%). My best three for the past week were KSDVX (3.33%) ... DEMAX (2.78%) ... and, PCVAX (2.51%).
I wish all a good weekend and most of all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
MSCFX is down to 2.43% of portf. And TRAMX is up to 2.66%.
Bonds: I continue to simply ride my small holding in DLFNX. And EM PREMX has grown back to 4% of portf. I also hold MAINX. I'm just beginning to have some negative reaction to its lagging performance... But as I soon as I might get out, you can bet it will go on a tear. Sheesh. Also hold some bonds via PRWCX and MAPOX.
US equity holdings of all types = 30.96% of portf.
Bonds (does not include PRWCX and MAPOX) = 10% of portf.
Developed Europe = 15.94%
Asia, Australia, NZ and everything out there = 40.48%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CP
Canadian Pacific was something that I strongly considered as a buy and hold, but when something moves 40 points or so in about two months, trimming/selling only seems prudent. I may look again when it comes back to Earth.
Regards,
Ted
In the last week I've added a bit to:
SCHD SCHWAB US DIV EQUITY ETF
WAFMX WASATCH FRONTIER
GASFX HENNESSY GAS UTILITY
RPHYX RIVERPARK SHORT TERM
GPROX GRANDEUR PEAK GLBL
PRBLX PARNASSUS CORE EQTY
Excuse the caps- copied from Schwab site & too lazy to redo.
If this market can stand my actually buying something it's more solid than I think it is. You staying with MFLDX? Just curious as to your thoughts on that.
OJ
What are you waiting for, a market correction?
These former Fairholme guys look interesting.
I'm also starting to study Smead Value, SMVLX. The manager has caught my attention, and I've heard him on two audio interviews with Chuck Jaffe. Sounds good.
I like using PRNEX for this area because it is more diversified then a strictly energy sector fund.
Is 20 % gain your signal to sell. What would be your selling point if MF continues to drop & last but not least, taxable account or not?
Thanks for your time & thoughts.
Derf
I have learnt my lessons. More importantly I have learnt patience. I'll wait.
I own FAIRX and FPACX. Not touching them at this time.
Deciding when to get out is always tougher for me. The safest thing I found after a decent rise is to trim off the profits and maybe reduce the principle investment. In the case of buying TREMX, EM funds were already low, and the political conflict in the Ukraine (i believed) exaggerated the fund price. I figured the fund would at least come back from the initial sell off - and when it did I sold. Energy and global tech are my longer trend betting sectors so I moved the TREMX money to PRNEX. >> not. everything is done in my 401k.
So I guess in a nut shell, I'm not the right person to give advice on momentum investing. I don't have set rules and I kind of play by gut-feel and what I pick up from this board and other reading. Love it when Junkster shares what he is doing
My best three performing funds year-to-date are SVAAX (13.46%) … THOAX (13.27%) … and, TOLLX (13.18%). My Best three for this past 30 days are IIVAX (6.26%) … SPECX (6.16%) … and, KSDVX (5.92%). My best three for this past week are SVAAX (2.72%) … VADAX (1.79%) … and, FDSAX (1.67%). Year-to-date my portfolio is up 6.8% and its bogey the Lipper Balanced Index is up 5.34%.
I believe stock market valuations to be a little on the frothy side and to support this thought I have provided a link to P/E Ratios and Yields on the major indexes along with Morningstar’s Fair Value Graph.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html?mod=wsj_mdc_additional_ustocks
http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx
I wish all … “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
Good investing, Derf
shortsideoflong.com/2014/06/overbought-vs-oversold/