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MJFOX. Bought-in at the Market top, after the 2014 New Year. The statistics don't look horrible, but.... And the rise in their sales/consumption tax is supposed to be hampering business, since 01 April... Seems too soon to give up on it. I'm fully invested, no spare cash. I suppose if I were a mutual fund and not a retail investor, I'd look at it differently, and be adding to my position.
Personally, I think it depends on if you think Abenomics will work (and by work, I mean lead to sustainable improvements in fundamentals in the country, not just a short-term pop in asset prices.) If you do not, it's a trade and how long you want to keep holding on is up to you. Personally - and this is nothing against Japan - I don't see the fundamentals and therefore, what little I've done there recently has been a trade.
MJFOX is a good fund but they cannot beat Japan Inc.
Japan is looking very broken technically and in a downtrend but with frequent bounce backs. Fundamentally, they did well earlier with a weakening Yen with Abenomics but that is not working any more. So unless the Yen starts to weaken again, I don't see sustainable growth. Not sure how they can pull it off.
If you wanted to get out of it in current trading range, it is currently about 2% below the next potential high (around 16) and about 3% above the next low (around 15.14) it is currently heading towards. Pick your exit point accordingly.
I wouldn't recommend a pure Japan fund as a long term buy and hold. Great for momentum players only. Developed markets fund with exposure to Japan is a better diversified core choice.
Crash- I'm thinking that what Scott is saying is that you should look at the situation either short term or long term. If short term, then you may want to trade in or out as the Abenomics economy varies between relatively temporary highs and lows. If long term, then you're really making a bet that "Abenomics" will have positive long term results, and you will be staying along for the ride regardless of what may be temporary setbacks.
Both Scott and cman appear to be skeptical with respect to a long-term commitment, and they are both pretty savvy fellows.
Both Scott and cman appear to be skeptical with respect to a long-term commitment, and they are both pretty savvy fellows.
Thanks! Yeah, I think Japan has a fascinating culture, don't have anything against it, but I just think it faces some considerable issues (demographics, the fact that they have to import oil/gas supplies, etc) and Abenomics is not going to create a sustainable recovery. It's cheapen the currency to gain export advantage, but what happens when all of the many things you need to import (in the case of Japan, energy is a big one) gets more and more expensive?
To me, the only way I'd invest in Japan is as a "tourist" (a trade of an index fund/etf) or via a couple of names that interest me (Fast Retailing is one), but there's no names right now that interest me enough to add - I'm really not looking to add to much of anything for a while.
I would also recommend going regional unless someone has a particular interest in Japan.
"A trade." Not sure what you meant. You sold your position in Japan?
I traded a little bit in a Japan etf a few times over last year, but knew going in that it was a trade as I don't have a positive view on Japan's fundamentals. I hate investing in things that I do not have a positive fundamental viewpoint on, but made a couple bucks on a few trades.
Abe got elected at least in part based on a promise to stimulate the economy and due to the consumption tax that was passed by a predecessor he'll have to convince the BOJ to further devalue the currency in order to offset the negative impact of the tax and even more to really get the economy going. Although the BOJ maintained their current policy yesterday and said the economy was doing okay, the numbers will get worse and soon since significant purchasing was brought forward to avoid the higher consumption tax, essentially window dressing the economy before April 1st with spending that might normally have happened at a later time. Therefore, my belief is that the currency will weaken and significantly before the end of the year and that should be good for the Nikkei. Whether it's enough when offset by the declining currency to make a good investment in dollar terms I'm not so sure, and I haven't done any real work to study it because my investments in Japan are not very big. I am short yen, however, to be transparent, and that's where I think the best chance for good returns will be.
Thanks, Maurice. I believe I'll wait for the share price to recover, then exit. I had been way too overloaded in MAPIX, but did not want to add to EM--- so, I chose Japan and MJFOX. I'll be getting out, but not rushing to do so. Bad timing, right now.
Comments
Japan is looking very broken technically and in a downtrend but with frequent bounce backs. Fundamentally, they did well earlier with a weakening Yen with Abenomics but that is not working any more. So unless the Yen starts to weaken again, I don't see sustainable growth. Not sure how they can pull it off.
If you wanted to get out of it in current trading range, it is currently about 2% below the next potential high (around 16) and about 3% above the next low (around 15.14) it is currently heading towards. Pick your exit point accordingly.
I wouldn't recommend a pure Japan fund as a long term buy and hold. Great for momentum players only. Developed markets fund with exposure to Japan is a better diversified core choice.
Both Scott and cman appear to be skeptical with respect to a long-term commitment, and they are both pretty savvy fellows.
To me, the only way I'd invest in Japan is as a "tourist" (a trade of an index fund/etf) or via a couple of names that interest me (Fast Retailing is one), but there's no names right now that interest me enough to add - I'm really not looking to add to much of anything for a while.
I would also recommend going regional unless someone has a particular interest in Japan. I traded a little bit in a Japan etf a few times over last year, but knew going in that it was a trade as I don't have a positive view on Japan's fundamentals. I hate investing in things that I do not have a positive fundamental viewpoint on, but made a couple bucks on a few trades.