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Open Thread: What Have You Been Buying/Selling/Pondering
Old_Skeet has pretty much just been pondering for the past 30 days, or so, since the S&P 500 has rebounded from a recent low, week of Fed 3rd, and has had a nice upward move since then. Even though it has pulled back form a recent closing high of 1878 by a little better than two percent I am looking for a price target of around 1800 before valuations in the Index become more to my liking. At this level I believe the Index will have a P/E Ratio (TTE) of a little better than 17 (trailing twelve month earnings) and a P E Ratio (FEE) of 15 and change (forward earnings estimates). I am thinking some of the emerging markets are now offering some good value if one has a mid to long term outlook and, with this, I have been nibbling in these. For the most part though, I have just been looking and buying a little around the edges. Unless I spend some cash soon I'll have had a cash build during the first quarter coming mostly from mutual fund distributions.
Have a good weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
Be careful about investing in broad EM funds. The recovery is very uneven between the countries and different funds will do very differently based in their allocation. For example, EM funds with larger Latin America exposure are doing worse than funds with more exposure to Asia Pacific without being dominated by Chinese markets.
A good active fund that is exploiting this and able to move when Latin America starts to recover will be better than a broad index if you can find such a thing.
Be careful about investing in broad EM funds. The recovery is very uneven between the countries and different funds will do very differently based in their allocation.
I've shifted some equity profits into ST bond holdings (carefully selected from a short list of Morningstar funds with only 1 star), and am simply letting dollars accumulate from across the bond sleeve into cash. My tax advantaged account is now sitting at 52% equities, the lowest allocation to stocks that I can remember for this account. I've got significant dry powder in both pre-tax and after-tax accounts.
I've grown very concerned, and for the near term, am perfectly content to just sit and watch for awhile. If I get the urge to nibble at all, it will be to current stocks in the income sleeve...such as KMI if it continues to get knocked around.
I need to begin pondering what to do when I win a billion dollars with my perfect NCAA bracket. Absent perfection, I do need to allow for a slight miss...and a $100K win for one of the top 20.
Thinking about to start a position in RSX or ERUS, any thought on this?
Explain the investment thesis? Do you work for Bill Gross or an investment bank or something?
Not David but in my view,
A simple investment thesis would be oversold, due for a bounce back once the meaningless posturing on all sides ends.
A more detailed investment thesis would be, Russia is "too big to fail", poses significant counterparty risk to European economic interests, US posturing is more about Democrats trying to prevent being labeled as weak in defense by Republicans as a talking point for US elections than any real concern for the region, while they have minimal military or economic leverage.
There will be a lot of smoke while the West tries to get Putin's rich friends to put pressure Putin as the only leverage.
Either that works and Putin backs off and lets Ukraine figure out what it going to do with a deeply split country and be in turmoil for the next 3-5 years while the West keeps pouring in money to ensure it doesn't fail and embarrass them for taking a stand (with most of that money paid to Russia by Ukraine).
Or Putin threatens to cut off oil and gas and West backs off while Ukrainians and Russians work out a face-saving solution for the divided country.
In either case, greedy money from ETFs pours into Russian markets to exploit mean reversion. Time frame about 2-6 months. Upside about 20%.
My thoughts are similar to Cman's, West particularly US will eventually find ways to compromise with Russia, similar to what happened in Georgia a few years ago. I am looking for a 20 to 30% upside once smoke is cleared.
bee: you should add erbb to your picture. earlier in the thread, there was talk of marijane stocks. i got all excited and bought a few. three days later, my measly amount in erbb was up 40% and i sold half. yesterday it was up another 17%. it's the wild west out there, with prices being driven by nothing but hot air and puffery. at the same time, especially when using money you can afford to lose and probably will lose, it's vastly entertaining to sit in front of your laptop with a 15-minute chart on the screen and watch these things go up 80%, then drop to 0%, then rise to 20% or whatever, all in a matter of hours. talk about volatility! kooky!
Was able to get back into HCP at under $37 yesterday. Since last attempt was at just under $42, before exiting at $40.70, hoping for more luck this time around.
Sold KMP and took proceeds and added them to my existing position in AMLP , a more diversified approach to mlps seemed best, Kinder has not gone up at all since 2011 except for minor spikes here or there. Also added to ARII , no more additions to it for now. Bought some WWAV to replace BGS I sold a while ago
an experiment. the date today is 3/19. i received a tip today -- ha, ha, a tip, we all know how good those are! -- from a maryjane-stock insider -- and from an MJ insider no less! -- on a few penny MJ stocks that are set to explode. of course, they're already up a gadzillion percent but he swears i'm a fool if i don't plow everything i own in em tomorrow, on any self-off that may occur. a week or two from now, he says, they will be in the stratosphere, or somewhere like that. here are the symbols: erbb, mine, and spli. anyhoo, i plan on reporting back a few times in the next week or two to tell you guys how i did. could land on the moon or, more likely, i could get slaughtered. stay tuned! p.s. no i am not putting everything i own into 'em. i'm stupid but not that stoopid!
just thought i'd follow this up, just 'cause i said i would. so ... one day later here's what happened with the three MJ stocks in question, not that it makes any diff in the long run.
Comments
Have a good weekend ... and, I wish all "Good Investing."
A good active fund that is exploiting this and able to move when Latin America starts to recover will be better than a broad index if you can find such a thing.
I've grown very concerned, and for the near term, am perfectly content to just sit and watch for awhile. If I get the urge to nibble at all, it will be to current stocks in the income sleeve...such as KMI if it continues to get knocked around.
and some here:
Probable 75% allocation into TLT on July 11 then switch to 100% into QQQ again on Oct 3rd ...
Not David but in my view,
A simple investment thesis would be oversold, due for a bounce back once the meaningless posturing on all sides ends.
A more detailed investment thesis would be, Russia is "too big to fail", poses significant counterparty risk to European economic interests, US posturing is more about Democrats trying to prevent being labeled as weak in defense by Republicans as a talking point for US elections than any real concern for the region, while they have minimal military or economic leverage.
There will be a lot of smoke while the West tries to get Putin's rich friends to put pressure Putin as the only leverage.
Either that works and Putin backs off and lets Ukraine figure out what it going to do with a deeply split country and be in turmoil for the next 3-5 years while the West keeps pouring in money to ensure it doesn't fail and embarrass them for taking a stand (with most of that money paid to Russia by Ukraine).
Or Putin threatens to cut off oil and gas and West backs off while Ukrainians and Russians work out a face-saving solution for the divided country.
In either case, greedy money from ETFs pours into Russian markets to exploit mean reversion. Time frame about 2-6 months. Upside about 20%.
PS: Ha - Quoting Charles above: "Hoping for more luck this time around."
the date today is 3/19. i received a tip today -- ha, ha, a tip, we all know how good those are! -- from a maryjane-stock insider -- and from an MJ insider no less! -- on a few penny MJ stocks that are set to explode. of course, they're already up a gadzillion percent but he swears i'm a fool if i don't plow everything i own in em tomorrow, on any self-off that may occur. a week or two from now, he says, they will be in the stratosphere, or somewhere like that. here are the symbols: erbb, mine, and spli. anyhoo, i plan on reporting back a few times in the next week or two to tell you guys how i did. could land on the moon or, more likely, i could get slaughtered. stay tuned!
p.s. no i am not putting everything i own into 'em. i'm stupid but not that stoopid!
erbb: -2.91%
spli: -1.61%
mine: 45.45%