Linked below is the 2/28 signal which has now been updated with a switch back to US Small Caps on 3/7.
The Moose's Signal ...
http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.htmlThe Moose's History ...
http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.htmlComment (3/10): A while back I had increased my allocation to Europe and with the Mooses signal to Europe I took no action to increase Europe. Also, I did not trim my small cap position either when he left small caps for Europe. I think, both will turn out to be good choices in 2014; and, I am not adjusting my portfolio based upon these recent calls.
Old_Skeet
Comments
Old_Skeet
Edit: More specifically I was looking at his performance since 10/16/09 when he first went over the 1,000,000 mark in his make believe hypothetical account.
$100K invested in the S&P back in 2000 would be worth a little less than $163K today. If you retired back in 2000 counting on the S&P 500 to help you pay to keep your lights on...well,
"Bless your heart."
Conversely, a $100K invested in the "Moose calls" starting in 2000 is now worth $1.2M. That's what I call staying ahead of inflation.
I find it interesting and telling that the Moose has held SPY for a brief 3 months over the last 6 years that Junkster referenced. Possibly it's the author's inability to comprehend the magintude of the FEDs influence and support of Military / Industrial complex or maybe a desire to perserve capital. The Moose held cash and LT Treasuries quite often over the last 6 years a nod (I believe) for preservation of capital.
In shear numbers, the Moose's total portfolio value grew over the last 6 years by $300K (from $896K to $1.2M) which is close to double the total value of the entire 13 year of the S&P 500 portfolio. It wasn't hard to beat the S&P 500 between 2000 - 2008...cash woud have beaten it. When the sh*t hit the fan a second time in 5 years (Tech Bubble / Housing Bubble) lots of other things (contango, commodities, credit risk) lost their shine and the light returned to the real market (productive companies).
The author (William Dirlam) at Decision Moose is reviewed by CXO:
cxoadvisory.com/2663/economic-indicators/the-decision-moose-asset-allocation-framework/#more-2663
It's real value may be in it's beta to the market (SPY).
Are the switches/calls going backwards not documented somewhere?
I know the list of monies is a the website, but I have not looked at the site for some time now.
I have form time-to-time made reference and posted the Moose's call on the board. This is the first time you have taken issue with it. And, I believe bee has made note of it in the past also.
I have looked at the Moose's signals for a good number of years. I don't always follow what he is doing ... but, what I do do is make sure I have an ample represnetation of his asset choice (signal) within my portfolio. In the case with his call for Europe, I had already increased my exposure to Europe a few months back by adding a sixth fund to my global growth sleeve and increased my weightings in some other funds that hold a good bit of Europe. I can understand the Moose making a one position investment but I perfer to run a diversified portfolio and increase my weighting to his asset of choice if I feel it is warranted within my portfolio. I still feel small caps are a good choice and this is the asset class he left for the European siganl. With this, I have not trimmed my allocation to small caps.
I guess, it gets down to each his own.
By the way, what got you so all upset about the post? From my perspective, he seems to have done ok through the years even though he has had a few rough patches. Perhaps Europe might become one of them. Stay tuned, and we shall see come Friday what kind of revision he might make to his most recent European call.
Old_Skeet
Regards,
Ted
This Moose:
Regards,
Ted
You noted: "in a bad mood today related to our first real snow storm of the year"
You'd probably want to be placed into an "induced coma" till real spring weather arrives this year in Michigan. Our area is working on 8' of seasonal snow and we don't live in any of the snowbelt areas of the state. I've operated our snowblower more this season than the past 5 years combined.
The sign in the link below is south of a favorite summertime area for us, Eagle Harbor.
275" (23') to date, with 50" on the ground
Take care,
Catch
I should apologize to you and bee. I don't belong on this board and will make a final post on that later today or tomorrow. But for the umpteenth time, I put no stock whatsoever in hypothetical results ala the Moose's of the world. As for rough patches, making a grand total of around 20% since 10/09 I would say is worse than a rough patch, albeit at least it's not Hussman-like. Then again, at least with Hussman we are talking about real money results not make believe play money like Moose. Again, you and bee are great people, sorry a board disruptor such as myself had to unload on you all.
We had a pretty good ice storm in the Murrells Inlet area of SC the past couple of weeks back. I went down to clean up from the storm and looked at a distant power pole ... The crew was from Michigan. Seems they came a long way to string wire. Some of the locals tell me there was an ice accumulation of up to an inch. I had two trees down and a good number with loss of some of their limbs.
Take care ... Spring is on the way!
Old_Skeet
Also from Bee's CXO link: "In summary, the Decision Moose asset allocation framework may offer investors a way to beat buying and holding the broad U.S. stock market by occasionally trading to the “hottest hand” (in economic context) from a set of nine asset class proxies, but its outperformance has materially dissipated." It also begs the question as to why its performance is benchmarked solely to SPY.
Just entertainment folks.
Let's not draw lines. We are all here to help one another against our bogey the markets. Junkster I'd hate to see you or anybody else leave the board. I hope you will think this over before you make a farewell type post. I'll be most saddened if you follow through with a post of that nature and leave. You have stated your position and I respect it. Please think this over ... You will indeed be missed if you choose to leave!
Think of our community as a church with stain glass windows. The color of the different glass reflects the differnet wave lengths of our thinking. Let's all try to keep better harmony and continue to move forward both as individuals and as a group.
I'll be off the board for a while as it has warmed up outside and I've got some stuff to get done before sun down. I'll be checking back this evening. And, if you want to gnaw on me some more I'll be around this evening.
As rono has written many ... many ... many ... times.
Peace,
Old_Skeet
Regards OJ
For me, Decision Moose seems to offer a momentum "drum beat" that I like to visit once a week and I look for validating or contradicting "sounds" elsewhere .
For me, when a "cash" or "Long Term Treasury" call is made by Decision Moose its a "warning sound" for me that my equity positions need to be more closely monitored.
Concerning Moose, I often read Hulbert publications following various newsletters over the years. Many of them advertise their incredible performance beating S&P 500 hands down. Often it happens with only one of the many strategies that they advertise. Unsuccessful ones are closed, successful (in the past) are advertised. An example is the Shadow portfolio of AAII, which has annualized performance 40% per year for the last 5 years. Who needs anything else if AAII stock portfolio return during the last 10 years is 529% ? Did Hulbert miss these miraculous performance while collecting systematic information about newsletters like that? Make your own research...
The less time on the computer the better. Last year I finally left a trading board I was on for over 14 years. So this will be my last trading/investment forum to exit. It's no fun forever being a board disruptor. You can't read the threads here without sometimes feeling compelled to comment. So for me the only way to stay away is simply delete the MFO link from my computer. I've seen others say they are leaving only to be back in a day or two posting away. I would like to think I have more discipline than that. The only wiggle room I will allow myself is to check back in three years and one month from now when I turn the big 70. Hopefully my *old* buddy Ted will still be alive and kickin and providing those valuable links. Thanks again for those who have put up with me and my sometimes rude behavior.
Gary
For me, decision moose is just another datapoint, just like Junkster's views are. In fact, I have benefited more from the latter, as recently as your call on NHMAX. Let's continue to share our views. We all get enriched by that. To paraphrase a
common saying, the sum of a board is greater than individual participants. Let's continue to make this a great meeting place.
I also hope you will rethink your decision. Discipline could also mean checking in once a week versus every day. Everyone's opinion is valuable and that is what makes this site a great one.
Regards,
Ted
Please stay!
Mona
http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html
If you want to spend more time in the great outdoors, that's a great reason to spend less time on the net, but the rest of us the board will be poorer (often literally) for it. Try for once a week! There's a useful add-on call leechblock which you can put on your browser and have it block sites except for certain days/times. Perhaps you'll give us 15 or 30 minutes a week.
Whatever you choose, best of luck with your investing and hiking.