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Wonder if the Moose will change his signal on Europe? Yes he did! Back to US Small Caps

edited March 2014 in Fund Discussions
Linked below is the 2/28 signal which has now been updated with a switch back to US Small Caps on 3/7.

The Moose's Signal ...

http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html

The Moose's History ...

http://decisionmoose.com/Moosistory.html

Comment (3/10): A while back I had increased my allocation to Europe and with the Mooses signal to Europe I took no action to increase Europe. Also, I did not trim my small cap position either when he left small caps for Europe. I think, both will turn out to be good choices in 2014; and, I am not adjusting my portfolio based upon these recent calls.

Old_Skeet

Comments

  • edited March 2014
    You can't be serious??? Unless I am missing something here, this blankity blank hypothetical make believe timer has significantly underperformed the S&P over the past 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 years!!!!!. Edit: That's what I call a trend.
  • I believe he made the call to Europe on 2/7 and he updates the signal weekly. I am wonding where he will postion with his next signal. Stay tuned as I plan to check back and I will post next weeks signal. Perhaps, somewhere in fixed income or cash is my guess? Perhaps, somewhere else? Stay tuned to find out.

    Old_Skeet
  • edited March 2014
    Sorry old_Skeet, in a bad mood today related to our first real snow storm of the year. The "can't be serious" wasn't related to his Europe position but why you would even post this garbage on the board. For the past six years he has been lost in the wilderness based on his horrific track record. I mean you could have thrown darts and *vastly* beaten his pathetic performance over that time.

    Edit: More specifically I was looking at his performance since 10/16/09 when he first went over the 1,000,000 mark in his make believe hypothetical account.
  • beebee
    edited March 2014
    Yes, the same Moose that trounced the S&P over the past 7,8,9,10,11,12, and 13 years.

    $100K invested in the S&P back in 2000 would be worth a little less than $163K today. If you retired back in 2000 counting on the S&P 500 to help you pay to keep your lights on...well,
    "Bless your heart."
    Conversely, a $100K invested in the "Moose calls" starting in 2000 is now worth $1.2M. That's what I call staying ahead of inflation.

    I find it interesting and telling that the Moose has held SPY for a brief 3 months over the last 6 years that Junkster referenced. Possibly it's the author's inability to comprehend the magintude of the FEDs influence and support of Military / Industrial complex or maybe a desire to perserve capital. The Moose held cash and LT Treasuries quite often over the last 6 years a nod (I believe) for preservation of capital.

    In shear numbers, the Moose's total portfolio value grew over the last 6 years by $300K (from $896K to $1.2M) which is close to double the total value of the entire 13 year of the S&P 500 portfolio. It wasn't hard to beat the S&P 500 between 2000 - 2008...cash woud have beaten it. When the sh*t hit the fan a second time in 5 years (Tech Bubble / Housing Bubble) lots of other things (contango, commodities, credit risk) lost their shine and the light returned to the real market (productive companies).

    The author (William Dirlam) at Decision Moose is reviewed by CXO:

    cxoadvisory.com/2663/economic-indicators/the-decision-moose-asset-allocation-framework/#more-2663

    It's real value may be in it's beta to the market (SPY).
  • edited March 2014
    Sorry bee, you don't have a clue! I could care less what someone did in some make believe hypothetical account that long ago. The past years are what is telling and especially since 10/16/09. I can't believe how enamored some here are with *make believe* accounts. Some of us actually trade and invest real money at real brokerage firms. I spent more time in days gone by than I care to remember going after these dream merchants and the groupies that drink their kool aid.
  • edited March 2014
    Well, ya'll got me curious...............

    Are the switches/calls going backwards not documented somewhere?

    I know the list of monies is a the website, but I have not looked at the site for some time now.

  • edited March 2014
    Documented? In days gone by I documented all my claims with real money brokerage statements. Can't any of the other Dream Merchants do likewise instead of all these disclaimers it's hypothetical etc.
  • Good morning Junkster,

    I have form time-to-time made reference and posted the Moose's call on the board. This is the first time you have taken issue with it. And, I believe bee has made note of it in the past also.

    I have looked at the Moose's signals for a good number of years. I don't always follow what he is doing ... but, what I do do is make sure I have an ample represnetation of his asset choice (signal) within my portfolio. In the case with his call for Europe, I had already increased my exposure to Europe a few months back by adding a sixth fund to my global growth sleeve and increased my weightings in some other funds that hold a good bit of Europe. I can understand the Moose making a one position investment but I perfer to run a diversified portfolio and increase my weighting to his asset of choice if I feel it is warranted within my portfolio. I still feel small caps are a good choice and this is the asset class he left for the European siganl. With this, I have not trimmed my allocation to small caps.

    I guess, it gets down to each his own.

    By the way, what got you so all upset about the post? From my perspective, he seems to have done ok through the years even though he has had a few rough patches. Perhaps Europe might become one of them. Stay tuned, and we shall see come Friday what kind of revision he might make to his most recent European call.

    Old_Skeet
  • There is only one moose that gets it right 100% of the time.
    Regards,
    Ted

    This Moose:
  • Hey Ted, that was funny! I think the post needed some good humor to bring it back to center. Have a good day.
  • Old_Skeet: Your right, that's why I did it.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • @junkster

    You noted: "in a bad mood today related to our first real snow storm of the year"

    You'd probably want to be placed into an "induced coma" till real spring weather arrives this year in Michigan. Our area is working on 8' of seasonal snow and we don't live in any of the snowbelt areas of the state. I've operated our snowblower more this season than the past 5 years combined.

    The sign in the link below is south of a favorite summertime area for us, Eagle Harbor.

    275" (23') to date, with 50" on the ground

    Take care,
    Catch
  • Old Skeet said "By the way, what got you so all upset about the post? From my perspective, he seems to have done ok through the years even though he has had a few rough patches."

    I should apologize to you and bee. I don't belong on this board and will make a final post on that later today or tomorrow. But for the umpteenth time, I put no stock whatsoever in hypothetical results ala the Moose's of the world. As for rough patches, making a grand total of around 20% since 10/09 I would say is worse than a rough patch, albeit at least it's not Hussman-like. Then again, at least with Hussman we are talking about real money results not make believe play money like Moose. Again, you and bee are great people, sorry a board disruptor such as myself had to unload on you all.
  • Hi Catch ... Good Morning.

    We had a pretty good ice storm in the Murrells Inlet area of SC the past couple of weeks back. I went down to clean up from the storm and looked at a distant power pole ... The crew was from Michigan. Seems they came a long way to string wire. Some of the locals tell me there was an ice accumulation of up to an inch. I had two trees down and a good number with loss of some of their limbs.

    Take care ... Spring is on the way!

    Old_Skeet
  • Gotta go with Junkster on this one. Hypothetical trades involving no real money with perfect timing, sure, all of us can do that.

    Also from Bee's CXO link: "In summary, the Decision Moose asset allocation framework may offer investors a way to beat buying and holding the broad U.S. stock market by occasionally trading to the “hottest hand” (in economic context) from a set of nine asset class proxies, but its outperformance has materially dissipated." It also begs the question as to why its performance is benchmarked solely to SPY.

    Just entertainment folks.
  • Hi all,

    Let's not draw lines. We are all here to help one another against our bogey the markets. Junkster I'd hate to see you or anybody else leave the board. I hope you will think this over before you make a farewell type post. I'll be most saddened if you follow through with a post of that nature and leave. You have stated your position and I respect it. Please think this over ... You will indeed be missed if you choose to leave!

    Think of our community as a church with stain glass windows. The color of the different glass reflects the differnet wave lengths of our thinking. Let's all try to keep better harmony and continue to move forward both as individuals and as a group.

    I'll be off the board for a while as it has warmed up outside and I've got some stuff to get done before sun down. I'll be checking back this evening. And, if you want to gnaw on me some more I'll be around this evening.

    As rono has written many ... many ... many ... times.

    Peace,

    Old_Skeet

  • @Junkster- Hey there, Junkster- of course you "belong on this board", just as much as anyone else. It is ridiculous to think that someone would leave over a petty and unimportant disagreement such as this one. Take a deep breath... calm down now...

    Regards OJ
  • has anyone here subscribed to the CXO's site and had a look at its momentum etf strategy? i think it's all hypothetical too but everyone seems to give CXO a free ride because it finds little of value anywhere else, so maybe its proprietary ratings are the money making real deal if not the holy grail.
  • beebee
    edited March 2014
    Junkster's point about "model portfolios" verses "real portfolios" is a valid one. Thanks for "clueing" me in. I come to MFO for these very reasons (getting investment clues) so I too hope you remain a contributing force.

    For me, Decision Moose seems to offer a momentum "drum beat" that I like to visit once a week and I look for validating or contradicting "sounds" elsewhere .

    For me, when a "cash" or "Long Term Treasury" call is made by Decision Moose its a "warning sound" for me that my equity positions need to be more closely monitored.
  • edited March 2014
    The user and all related content has been deleted.
  • edited March 2014
    Junkster, your comments over years helped me a lot. It would be a great loss for all of us if you leave the board, please stay!

    Concerning Moose, I often read Hulbert publications following various newsletters over the years. Many of them advertise their incredible performance beating S&P 500 hands down. Often it happens with only one of the many strategies that they advertise. Unsuccessful ones are closed, successful (in the past) are advertised. An example is the Shadow portfolio of AAII, which has annualized performance 40% per year for the last 5 years. Who needs anything else if AAII stock portfolio return during the last 10 years is 529% ? Did Hulbert miss these miraculous performance while collecting systematic information about newsletters like that? Make your own research...
  • Thanks guys. I am a bit surprised as I thought I would have had more "don't let the door hit you on the way out" responses. No sense in anymore histrionics on my part so won't make any finaI drama laden post like I have seen some make in the past. Because I saw this coming, I mailed David a small contribution late last week, just a $100 but better than nothing. Even though at times I might not have sounded like it, this truly is one of the absolute best boards on the net. So super of a board it can become a bit addictive. So addictive it can interfere with some of my other passions in life. I've always hiked and run year round but this year and beyond I want to take my hiking to new levels - new places and new faces with new hiking groups all over the country.

    The less time on the computer the better. Last year I finally left a trading board I was on for over 14 years. So this will be my last trading/investment forum to exit. It's no fun forever being a board disruptor. You can't read the threads here without sometimes feeling compelled to comment. So for me the only way to stay away is simply delete the MFO link from my computer. I've seen others say they are leaving only to be back in a day or two posting away. I would like to think I have more discipline than that. The only wiggle room I will allow myself is to check back in three years and one month from now when I turn the big 70. Hopefully my *old* buddy Ted will still be alive and kickin and providing those valuable links. Thanks again for those who have put up with me and my sometimes rude behavior.

    Gary
  • Junkster said:

    Thanks guys. I am a bit surprised as I thought I would have had more "don't let the door hit you on the way out" responses. No sense in anymore histrionics on my part so won't make any finaI drama laden post like I have seen some make in the past. Because I saw this coming, I mailed David a small contribution late last week, just a $100 but better than nothing. Even though at times I might not have sounded like it, this truly is one of the absolute best boards on the net. So super of a board it can become a bit addictive. So addictive it can interfere with some of my other passions in life. I've always hiked and run year round but this year and beyond I want to take my hiking to new levels - new places and new faces with new hiking groups all over the country.

    The less time on the computer the better. Last year I finally left a trading board I was on for over 14 years. So this will be my last trading/investment forum to exit. It's no fun forever being a board disruptor. You can't read the threads here without sometimes feeling compelled to comment. So for me the only way to stay away is simply delete the MFO link from my computer. I've seen others say they are leaving only to be back in a day or two posting away. I would like to think I have more discipline than that. The only wiggle room I will allow myself is to check back in three years and one month from now when I turn the big 70. Hopefully my *old* buddy Ted will still be alive and kickin and providing those valuable links. Thanks again for those who have put up with me and my sometimes rude behavior.

    Gary

    Please rethink your decision. You will be missed for sure. For me, any forum should tolerate diversity of opinions expressed respectfully. The last part can be a bit borderline, but we are all adults here and can tolerate a little mood fluctuation, especially when we have known each other virtually over a long period.

    For me, decision moose is just another datapoint, just like Junkster's views are. In fact, I have benefited more from the latter, as recently as your call on NHMAX. Let's continue to share our views. We all get enriched by that. To paraphrase a
    common saying, the sum of a board is greater than individual participants. Let's continue to make this a great meeting place.
  • @Junkster,

    I also hope you will rethink your decision. Discipline could also mean checking in once a week versus every day. Everyone's opinion is valuable and that is what makes this site a great one.

  • Junkster, puh-leez stay. You have a lot of smarts, unlike me.
  • Junkster isn't going anywhere !!!!!!!
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Gary,

    Please stay!

    Mona
  • edited March 2014
    Linked below is the latest signal form the Moose in which he has now switched from Europe back to US Small Caps as of 3/7.

    http://decisionmoose.com/Moosignal.html
  • Junkster,
    If you want to spend more time in the great outdoors, that's a great reason to spend less time on the net, but the rest of us the board will be poorer (often literally) for it. Try for once a week! There's a useful add-on call leechblock which you can put on your browser and have it block sites except for certain days/times. Perhaps you'll give us 15 or 30 minutes a week.
    Whatever you choose, best of luck with your investing and hiking.
  • I suspect it will change again soon as the market is just churning with no leadership for longer term trends. This is the kind of scenario where relative strength calculations fail to provide useful trend information.
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