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Before The Opening Bell: USA---Europe---Asia---Metals: Its All About Ukrine ! Ukrine ! Ukrine !
Dear linter: I'd lift the stops, today is a buying opportunity. The Ukrine crisis is short-term. Regards, Ted
>>>Not sure about what short term (i.e., less than 6 months???) means......
Better buying ops' may be 6 months forward.
Mr. Putin is the classic psychopath; at the very least. This condition would not be such a problem if he lived by himself and without family or friends. But, obviously; his political position has been and remains a serious problem. One may read much from his face expressions, IMO. If he flips backward from his current position regarding "his" view of how things need to be in the "area", I would be even more concerned. Mr. P is stuck in the old world of "empires"; and his Motherland has been injured during his early years of "government work". He is not pleased and doesn't care who doesn't care about his decisions.
Too many people think this is a buying opportunity and short term to make it a good buying opportunity today. Less than 1% drop in futures is not even close to alarm. It is more like buyers waiting and so there will.be some sell pressures to start with.
Most likely, there will be some profit taking in the recent highfliers and if the standoff continues with no shots fired, the markets may even recover today itself or tomorrow for a very small loss.
The only people that will make money may be those that stocked up on Gold, oil, etc last week and sell into the rally today. This might include Putin selling Gold.
For there to be panic selling that creates a buying opportunity, shots will need to be fired and a narrative has to emerge which will say why the Western countries will suffer such as Russia cutting off oil or gas supplies even if it hurts themselves to retaliate. This is possible but impossible to predict.
There is no reason for shots to be fired at the moment since the areas Russia is occupying mostly want Russia to be there and see themselves as Russians. Putin may be a cold chess player but he is not dumb. He won't advance into western Ukraine. So there will be a lot of posturing from the West and Russian markets will take a hit but they will think it is short term too and a.buying opportunity.
Seems like just a sideshow at the moment as far as markets are concerned.
Have GLL and TBT on my shopping list for short term trading gains in play money portfolio for now.
@ted, on my shopping list TO BUY today/tomorrow to exploit the typical over reaction in gold and treasuries to news like this more than any other asset class and they eventually revese course. EEV and FXP previously held are making money for me today.
The reaction has not been large enough yet to actually make the trade. Not worth trying to catch the +/-5% wigglies.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-02/yen-gains-with-oil-on-ukraine-as-s-p-500-futures-retreat.html
https://www.google.com/search?q=george+patton+1945&tbm=isch&imgil=YFmCYpIZ2kSrZM%3A%3Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fencrypted-tbn2.gstatic.com%2Fimages%3Fq%3Dtbn%3AANd9GcTO1QHTqInXqUk9cPuctMkzya9aH_4Ax_fnJ9n0czzVgqgAGky0%3B400%3B527%3Bj4230YKTKLaTeM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fcontent.time.com%252Ftime%252Fcovers%252F0%252C16641%252C19450409%252C00.html&source=iu&usg=__8DK2R2qIEA3PdaWoawl-sFWXTfI=&sa=X&ei=W3cUU7yiM6ecyQGh2YG4CQ&ved=0CEUQ9QEwBA&biw=1600&bih=708#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=YFmCYpIZ2kSrZM%3A;j4230YKTKLaTeM;http%3A%2F%2Fimg.timeinc.net%2Ftime%2Fmagazine%2Farchive%2Fcovers%2F1945%2F1101450409_400.jpg;http%3A%2F%2Fcontent.time.com%2Ftime%2Fcovers%2F0%2C16641%2C19450409%2C00.html;400;527
Better buying ops' may be 6 months forward.
Mr. Putin is the classic psychopath; at the very least. This condition would not be such a problem if he lived by himself and without family or friends. But, obviously; his political position has been and remains a serious problem.
One may read much from his face expressions, IMO.
If he flips backward from his current position regarding "his" view of how things need to be in the "area", I would be even more concerned. Mr. P is stuck in the old world of "empires"; and his Motherland has been injured during his early years of "government work". He is not pleased and doesn't care who doesn't care about his decisions.
then again they may not be.
Most likely, there will be some profit taking in the recent highfliers and if the standoff continues with no shots fired, the markets may even recover today itself or tomorrow for a very small loss.
The only people that will make money may be those that stocked up on Gold, oil, etc last week and sell into the rally today. This might include Putin selling Gold.
For there to be panic selling that creates a buying opportunity, shots will need to be fired and a narrative has to emerge which will say why the Western countries will suffer such as Russia cutting off oil or gas supplies even if it hurts themselves to retaliate. This is possible but impossible to predict.
There is no reason for shots to be fired at the moment since the areas Russia is occupying mostly want Russia to be there and see themselves as Russians. Putin may be a cold chess player but he is not dumb. He won't advance into western Ukraine. So there will be a lot of posturing from the West and Russian markets will take a hit but they will think it is short term too and a.buying opportunity.
Seems like just a sideshow at the moment as far as markets are concerned.
Have GLL and TBT on my shopping list for short term trading gains in play money portfolio for now.
Regards,
Ted
TBT: http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=TBT
GLL: http://etfs.morningstar.com/quote?t=GLL
The reaction has not been large enough yet to actually make the trade. Not worth trying to catch the +/-5% wigglies.