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A Contrarian Opportunity In A Fairly Valued U.S. Equity Landscape: Consumer Staples
He only holds about 72-75% (mostly conservative) stocks and the rest bonds and cash. Of course he's going to lag the S&P 500 in bull mkts. That's to be expected...at least I expect that and he does too.
Reply to @clemg64: My bad, it is pretty much even with the S&P over the past 10 years. I tend to look at everything compared to junk bond funds ala WHIYX where it has lagged considerably over the past 10 years. But then so has the S&P lagged.
Another interesting thing I had observed long time back was that both XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLY (consumer discretionary) have better long term performance vs. S&P. Try different time-frames on this chart.
As both have higher expected returns (at least based on historical data) and seem to be less correlated (at least under some market conditions), I have been thinking of a possible pairing or rebalancing approach to take advantage of this. I don't have access to a good back-testing software, but my feeling is that a 50:50 split with rebalancing at 55:45 should do better than VFINX.
Comments
Regards,
Ted
http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en-US
As both have higher expected returns (at least based on historical data) and seem to be less correlated (at least under some market conditions), I have been thinking of a possible pairing or rebalancing approach to take advantage of this. I don't have access to a good back-testing software, but my feeling is that a 50:50 split with rebalancing at 55:45 should do better than VFINX.