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A Contrarian Opportunity In A Fairly Valued U.S. Equity Landscape: Consumer Staples

Comments

  • Jeff Auxier's AUXFX was the first thing that came to my mind when reading that. I like it.
  • Reply to @clemg64: I like Jeff as a fund manager, however; he has lagged the S&P 500 benchmark over an extended period of time.
    Regards,
    Ted
  • Reply to @Ted: To say he has *lagged* over an extended period of time is being much too kind. Must be the new, gentler Ted.
  • edited February 2014
    He only holds about 72-75% (mostly conservative) stocks and the rest bonds and cash. Of course he's going to lag the S&P 500 in bull mkts. That's to be expected...at least I expect that and he does too.
  • edited February 2014
    Reply to @clemg64: My bad, it is pretty much even with the S&P over the past 10 years. I tend to look at everything compared to junk bond funds ala WHIYX where it has lagged considerably over the past 10 years. But then so has the S&P lagged.
  • Another fund with "Retail" in its name might be AKREX, Akre Focus Retail. Seems to be overweighting Financials, Retail, Industrials as per M* data.
  • as has been said here before, i think, the Retail in its name has nothing to do with "retail" in the context we're talking about here.
  • Another interesting thing I had observed long time back was that both XLP (Consumer Staples) and XLY (consumer discretionary) have better long term performance vs. S&P. Try different time-frames on this chart.

    http://quote.morningstar.com/fund/chart.aspx?t=VFINX&region=usa&culture=en-US

    As both have higher expected returns (at least based on historical data) and seem to be less correlated (at least under some market conditions), I have been thinking of a possible pairing or rebalancing approach to take advantage of this. I don't have access to a good back-testing software, but my feeling is that a 50:50 split with rebalancing at 55:45 should do better than VFINX.
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