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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.

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  • "It may be better to focus instead on not being dumb, rather than try to be clever." That's ringing my particular bells.
  • edited February 2014
    I've never been a fan of inflation adjusted returns. And I have never been a fan of anything related to gold. Gold hit $850 an ounce in 1980 with the Dow what, somewhere around 800 to 1000? Regardless though of my biases, I prefer to stick with the luck adjustment principles presented in Max Gunther's excellent book The Luck Factor. More specifically, #4 of the five luck adjustment factors and that is the Ratchet Effect. The capacity to get out of deteriorating situations (positions) quickly - knowing how to discard bad luck before it becomes worse luck (like 15% to 20% drawdowns or for that matter 5% to 10% drawdowns) I have found it much better to be lucky than smart when you play the trading and investing game.

    Edit: My bad, I forgot, according to the board cognoscenti, a 5% loss is considered miniscule.
  • Reply to @Crash: Bells ! Bells !
    Regards,
    Ted
    For Me And My Gal:
  • edited February 2014
    Judy Garland. Before she got stretched out to nothing and worn too thin. And Gene Kelly. Great together.
  • Reply to @Junkster: I'm guessing that you mean 'smart' luck as opposed to 'dumb' luck in most cases.
  • edited February 2014
    Reply to @Mark: I've had some "smart luck" in my days but sometimes I think the best luck I ever had was plain old "dumb" luck. Back in the early to mid 90s I was banned (kicked out) by Vanguard and T Rowe Price where I had accounts. It was for too active trading in and out of their funds. The "dumb luck" was moving to INVESCO and Strong funds. Little did I know at the time but they allowed unlimited switching between their funds and day after day if necessary if you wanted to continually adjust your positions based on daily price action. You could dateline there with impunity and they were a great place to be if you were into capitalizing on the new fund effect since they were always coming up with new offerings. I often wondered where I would be now (financially) had I switched to firms other than those two. Of course, all good things come to an end as both of those firms bore the brunt of the short term mutual fund trading scandals in the early 2000s.
  • Reply to @Junkster: Ah, Strong Funds ... I remember them well from the go-go days. RIP.
  • Reply to @AndyJ: Remember, "There's Nothing Like A Strong Portfolio."
    Regards,
    Ted
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