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The Closing Bell: Bloodbath U.S. Stock See Red ! Red 1 Red !
Bloodbath is too strong a word. Dow's down about 1200 points from the recent all time high around 16,600. A mere bump in the road. ... However, look at the NASDAQ - off over 100 points in a single day. Now, that's enough to turn some stomachs:-)
Folks piled into EM early in 2013, and then into the broader markets late in 2013. And now public sentiment is turning negative. Next, I am looking for fund flows out of equities. Only a few more % to go, and money from my 4Q fund haircuts will be going back into the market.
I could only hope that my bowels were as predictable as investor behavior.
The Total Stock Market Index over the past five years. I'm trying hard to feel panicked but have mostly managed "mildly curious about whether interesting opportunities are finally emerging."
One area that I am a little concerned about is telecom. You have what are effectively price wars (come over to us and we'll cover the penalties for leaving your current carrier!) and it does not appear to be good for any of the major carriers. Maybe there will be some more consolidation, but other than that...
AT & T and the others are offering great dividends, but we'll see if they are entirely sustainable.
I do think the market is oversold, but has further downside. I'm sure Asia will be brutal tonight.
Well. some of us were looking for a decent pullback as a buying opportunity... this may be a decent entry point. What's on the world horizon that's so terrible or threatening that the stock market is liable to stay sold-off for a year or two? I don't see much going on out there other than the usual ups and downs here and there...
Interesting to note SFGIX (down ~8% ytd) vs WAFMX (pretty much steady so far).
Reply to @scott: The Nikky is leading the way again and the Hang Seng is open following a holiday. Both are down over 2% this morning. The Straits Times is down 1.07%.
Reply to @David_Snowball: Yeah, that chart looks pretty benign for now. Usually you have five or more of these little hiccups in a year but now we've become conditioned to straight lines!
Reply to @MOZART325: Nothing goes up in a straight line, nothing goes down in a straight line. No point in looking at daily wigglies. The trend/momentum currently is down. The next major test will be the 200 day MA at around 1700. If that holds, the bottom would be somewhere around 1675. That is how many TA traders think. I just wait for the trend up to establish before committing any new money. No falling knives and value traps that way.
For people that wanted to get on the FBIOX train, 185 is still the next target price to get in. The technicals are strongly pointing in that direction.
The worst thing people can do is to pile on on down days as a way to deal with the recent losses. This is a psychological trap in the initial stages of a correction because one wants to rationalize the losses as a buying opportunity to be able to cope with it. In a 20%+ correction, this is the first step. Then people get worried and stop putting in more money and finally they start to panic and think of selling. Happens every time. Nobody can say whether this is the long expected correction or just a dip.
Comments
I just shake my head at this kind of TV reporting.
I could only hope that my bowels were as predictable as investor behavior.
The Total Stock Market Index over the past five years. I'm trying hard to feel panicked but have mostly managed "mildly curious about whether interesting opportunities are finally emerging."
David
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/02/03/jack-bogles-market-advice-dont-do-something-just-stand-there/tab/print/
AT & T and the others are offering great dividends, but we'll see if they are entirely sustainable.
I do think the market is oversold, but has further downside. I'm sure Asia will be brutal tonight.
Interesting to note SFGIX (down ~8% ytd) vs WAFMX (pretty much steady so far).
It is feeling a bit oversold right now.
Currency wars are what is going on. When the pain gets really serious, real wars start.
Nikkei is trading above where nikkei futures were at the NY close.
For people that wanted to get on the FBIOX train, 185 is still the next target price to get in. The technicals are strongly pointing in that direction.
The worst thing people can do is to pile on on down days as a way to deal with the recent losses. This is a psychological trap in the initial stages of a correction because one wants to rationalize the losses as a buying opportunity to be able to cope with it. In a 20%+ correction, this is the first step. Then people get worried and stop putting in more money and finally they start to panic and think of selling. Happens every time. Nobody can say whether this is the long expected correction or just a dip.