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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    Agree @mark. When you carry that many funds, for every winner in a portfolio there are probably 5-10 mediocre to bad funds too. Just the rules of the game. Your portfolio is indexed at best.
  • Real Yields on European Junk Bonds Go Negative For First Time
    Thanks for comment. What happens. I read something (in the paper edition) and it strikes me as possibly relevant with a deeper significance. So, I Google some key words, locate the article and link it without without much explanation.
    What I was thinking when I linked the article (probably obvious) is that the same issue - ultra low interest rates - that keeps investors buying equities at high valuations also impels them to buy riskier junk bonds yielding less than inflation. This article confirms that junk across the USA is also yielding less than inflation.
    So TINA (There is no alternative) applies not just to equities, but to junk bonds - and probably many other assets. One wonders when and how this will all end. Other reading suggests that junk munis have been super hot all year and yield remarkably little - likely not adequate compensation for risk undertaken.
    @carew88 - Surely you jest. I do recall several years ago when some credit unions had new car loan rates at 3% and lower. But that seemed to change. Paid cash for the car in 2018 rather than finance at what the CU was asking.
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    I’ve been watching this discussion hoping for some insight on EGFFX, a fund unbeknownst to me. From what I can see looking at the holdings it’s a pure growth vehicle that has avoided the relative drop that affected so many growth funds this calendar year. A search on MFO of the fund symbol shows that the only person who said he was a buyer was our erstwhile contributor, Old_Skeet, and that message is from 2015. I have held AKREX for about 8 years and been very pleased. Thanks to @Griffin for showing us that there gems out there that don’t get our attention.
  • the Sequoia ETF
    Apparently Ruane, Cunniff & Goldbarb plan to launch a non-transparent, active ETF version of the Sequoia Fund. The expense ratio has not been disclosed.
    The current Sequoia team began digging out from under the rubble almost exactly five years ago.
    Good news: Ummm ... an opportunity to write nostalgic pieces about The Titan That Once Was?
    Bad news: since the new team took over, Sequoia's rank in its 138 fund Lipper Multi-Cap Growth peer group is ...
    Annual return: 110th
    Sharpe ratio: 111th
    Capture ratio (S&P500): 115th
    Downside deviation: 97th, that is, 97 have better "bad volatility" scores than Sequoia
    Maximum drawdown: 120th
    I wonder where else there would be any buzz around the announcement, "hey, guys, we're offering a clone of the 115th best fund in its peer group! Climb abroad"?
    David
  • Real Yields on European Junk Bonds Go Negative For First Time
    “Investors in European junk bonds have begun accepting interest payments that are lower than eurozone inflation levels for the first time ever, in the latest sign that central banks’ crisis-era debt purchases have shifted the balance between risk and reward. The yield on ICE BofA index of European high-yield bonds was pushed down to 2.34 per cent this week, marking the first time buyers of so-called high-yield European currency bonds have accepted payments below consumer price inflation in the eurozone …
    Analysts said investors’ willingness to extend credit to the riskiest borrowers while losing money in real terms reflected the scarcity of other opportunities to earn returns in debt markets. At the same time, Europe’s strong recovery from the pandemic following a bumper earnings season has reduced the risk that junk bond issuers will default.”

    (If your bond or multi-asset fund holds global debt you may own some of these.)
    The Financial Times
  • A lexicon of China’s tech crackdown jargon
    This is a wide ranging review of current thinking about the ongoing transformation. Here are a few examples:
    The party Central Committee shifted its economic emphasis “from efficiency to fairness” in late 2020, a researcher at a Beijing think tank wrote in August in Caixin, China’s most prominent business magazine.
    The party moved from “early prosperity for some to ‘common prosperity’” and “from capital to labor,” wrote Luo Zhiheng of Yuekai Securities Research Institute. He said leaders are emphasizing science, technology and manufacturing over finance and real estate.
    As the previous decade’s economic boom fades, “Xi sees himself as the only person capable of recreating the momentum,” said June Teufel Dreyer, a Chinese politics specialist at the University of Miami.
    China chases ‘rejuvenation’ with control of tycoons, society
  • Let the SS COLA Projections for 2022 Begin
    Interesting...to me anyways. PV is now posting in its inflation data for 2021 = 4.81%
    image
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    Good discussion on AKREX. I had almost forgotten about this fund. I just rechecked and another point in its favor is that only dropped about 15% in Feb and March of 2020. I need to study this one again. I’m also interested in looking at its correlation with SPY to see if helps diversify my portfolio more. Like others I am still a bit too heavy on growth — primarily because my 401K equity options are somewhat limited to SPY, EFA and FSMAX. EFA is a more value oriented index but Europe has greatly underperformed US for years
  • Did you forget password to Bitcoin !?
    Looks like this “investment” lost 20% of its value at 11:04 AM today. Guess I just don’t understand modern investing. Used to be if you lost 20% in a whole year it was bad.
    Day’s Chart
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    The 1980's saw inflation without much growth. Another scenario is Japan with high debt and low inflation.
    I bought the Fidelity Real Return Fund (FSRRX) last year anticipating inflation. It's performance has not been great, but it has done well the past year. I bought it because it has had lower drawdowns than commodity funds.
    https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/FSRRX/overview
    "The fund invests directly, in other funds, and through derivatives such as commodity futures and swaps. For its fixed income portion, it invests in inflation-protected debt securities and floating rate loans. For its equity portion, the fund invests in stocks of real estate investment trusts. For its commodity portion, it invests in commodity-linked notes. The fund also invests in Fidelity's central funds. It employs fundamental analysis along with a bottom up stock picking approach by focusing on factors such as security's structural features and current pricing, its issuer's potential for success, and the credit, currency, and economic risks of the security and its issuer, financial condition, earnings outlook, strategy, management, industry position, and economic and market conditions to create its portfolio. "
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    VWINX current duration is 8 years. So if rates increase 2% the bonds will drop 16%, taking the fund down 11%.
    The problem with comparisons to the 1980s is the SP500 started at very low PEs, so a lot of the return in VWINX was from the 30% equity portion. From 12/79 to 3/80 before the equity blast off VWINX lost 13%
    I would think you need something to hedge the rate increases if they come, along with faltering economic growth. Maybe real assets as mentioned, but that implies economic growth, which would also support equites.
    "this time it is different" may in fact be true today , as they has never been a comparable time with sky high equities valuations and sky high bond prices
    I worry that standard 30/70 funds will do poorly when both bonds and stocks get hit badly
  • Quality Growth: AKREX, POLRX, EGFFX
    I've held AKREX/AKRIX for a number of years and am very pleased with it. It's all about perception and expectation, I believe. If you want a LCG fund with FAANG stocks and other go-go stocks, then AKREX/AKRIX is not the vehicle.
    AKREX has performed superbly outside of 2020, when it was in the 87th percentile (-15% of LCG), BY FAR its worst relative performance.
    Unfortunately, 2020 skews its multi-year relative category performance ranking. Its annual ranks range from 1% to 29%; YTD 28%. Not bad as far as i am concerned.
    Its ten-year rank is in the 17th percentile (20.04%), again good with me. As Graust stated, its a good diversifier for other growth funds. I'll go a step further and say it's a good diversifier for most LCV and LCB funds, particularly S&P500 indexes which are top-heavy with FAANG.
    One last point, its Risk/Reward profile for all time frames is exceptional; it's also a GO fund. That's not so say there aren't better funds available, but AKREX/AKRIX is a fund to consider.
    Just one man's opinion.
    A good discussion, keep the thread alive.
    Matt
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    A little more background info....
    The fall of the almost $2 billion Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund is a reminder to investors about the risks that can lurk in their holdings and the heavy costs and frustrations that liquidating funds bring.

    What's in your mutual fund? The collapse of Infinity Q is a warning to investors
  • Vanguard Customer Service

    Now you ask, what prevents me from opening additonal accounts at Vanguard with different account numbers and put $25K of Primecap and $25K of Capital Opportunity in each account, each year?
    My answer is nothing.
    My answer is that pretty much any fund from any fund company can reject a purchase order that it chooses. Sometimes this is phrased as "a trade that would be disruptive", sometimes not.
    Each Vanguard fund reserves the right to reject any purchase request—including exchanges from other Vanguard funds—without notice and regardless of size. For example, a purchase request could be rejected because the investor has a history of frequent trading or if Vanguard determines that such purchase may negatively affect a fund’s operation or performance.
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pub/Pdf/p059.pdf?2210168823
    Given that Vanguard has limited the amounts one can invest so that purchases don't negatively affect a fund, it's hardly a stretch for Vanguard to consider gaming their rules disruptive.
    But if you want to game the system, why stop at $25K/account? Vanguard allows shares to be moved from one account to another existing (not new) account. Sure, it took me over an hour on the phone with Vanguard years ago when I converted some shares in kind from a traditional to a Roth IRA (with existing positions in both accounts), but it can be done.
    So open two accounts with $25K, move the shares from one account to the other, then convert the $50K to Admiral shares. Even if you get so far as to open multiple accounts of the same type (e.g. two taxable accounts) in a closed fund, I have my doubts whether Vanguard will then let you take the next step.
    Side note: Fidelity once initially rejected a purchase order of mine for a Fidelity fund because it might have been disruptive. (Upon review, Fidelity allowed it to go through.) So this is not a matter of Vanguard being different from other families.
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    I should have been more clear, @bee. When I said rates have been falling since the 1970's. the began falling in about 1982 when Mr Volker broke inflation by raising rates. VWINX has done well with it's low cost, value oriented philosophy, and was assisted by a long running bond bull market due to falling rates.
  • Executives at Hedge Fund Renaissance to Pay $7bn in Back Taxes
    “Top executives of Renaissance Technologies and their spouses have agreed to pay about $7 billion (€5.9 billion) in back taxes and penalties to federal authorities in connection with trades made by the quantitative hedge fund in the largest tax settlement in US history, according to people briefed on the matter. Jim Simons, a mathematician and former cold war codebreaker who founded the fund about four decades ago, will pay an additional $670 million, according to a letter the group sent to investors, which has been seen by the Financial Times.
    Dispute
    The settlement put an end to a long-running dispute linked to trades made by the firm’s Medallion fund between 2005 and 2015, when several of its executives converted short-term capital gains into long-term profits, which are taxed at a significantly lower rate. Renaissance has also counted among its top executives Robert Mercer, who financed the far-right news website Breitbart and backed several Republican political candidates including former US president Donald Trump.”

    (Originally Published in the Financial Times) https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/executives-at-hedge-fund-renaissance-to-pay-7bn-in-back-taxes-1.4664159
  • Catastrophe Porfolio
    Did a little more checking. VWINX inception date was actually 6/30/1970.
    Here is a look at the 10-year treasury trend from 1973 to 1982.
    image
    And here is a look at VWINX performance from 1973 to 1982 compared to S&P500 and VWESX (Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Inv). That was the only bond OEF that showed up in a quick google search. (better comparisons are welcome)
    image
    Nothing definitive, but those two charts don't appear to rule out the process VWINX uses to deal with an extended period of rising interest rates.
  • Retail Investors Drive Summer’s Market / FT
    “Record levels of stock buying by retail investors have helped to keep US equities marching higher through the summer months, and been the “dominant force” powering a relentless rally in the market, according to analysts at JPMorgan. US retail investors’ net purchases of stocks and exchange traded funds surged to record levels during the summer, after posting substantial inflows throughout the year, according to a measure calculated by the bank to focus on retail activity.
    The S&P 500 index of blue-chip US stocks is up 20 per cent so far this year. Global equity fund inflows, which analysts view as another indicator of retail buying, have pushed past $689bn so far this year, smashing the previous annual record set in 2017”

    Excerpted & edited for brevity from Financial Times September 6, 2021
    https://www.ft.com/content/d87c6631-55f0-4897-9634-bf0ad969e27d