Hi FD1000, interesting article regarding sp500 maybe bottom by tom floyd/ (spy 50 days moving average just crossed 200 days
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4332963-spy-plan-now-to-buy-bottom
Perhaps start small portions next week or two/have quick stop loss selling signals though

Maybe we need (1) more posters putting up useful stories or questions and than (2) some other posters bumping them over into the “Discussions +” side of the board? No bump. No clutter. That was the original intent of the “Discussions +” arrangement. Personally, the volume of stories isn’t too much of an issue for me to wade through.
If folks want to discuss good investing topics I’m “all-ears”. Give it a listen. But I can’t advise on where to shelter any more than the flag pole on the corner can. Pretty much it seems folks are shell-shocked. It took about a year in the 07-09 crash to get to about where we are here in perhaps a month‘s time.Some pretty decent domestic stock funds are off 35% or more YTD. Catch22’s previous observation about the unpredictably divergent market forces still holds true. Rates are swinging wildly. Shorter term stuff’s been murdered recently. Gold’s going nuts as well. Big fall after topping above $1700 month ago. Yesterday miners gained about 15%. Today they gave back half of that. Not much seems to be working. Like to look at various segments of equity markets. Price’s PRLAX (Latin America) was off nearly 40% YTD before today - but actually bounced while the Dow shed 900+ points.
The crash back in 2000 started after the NASDAQ got top-heavy at over 5,000. Today, 20 years later, it broke through 7,000 on the way down. Will it revisit 5000 again?

In this stressful time, which cries for serious and thoughtful information exchange, why MFO is being cluttered with garbage like this is completely beyond my comprehension. It echoes the performance from the very top of the present administration: let's keep on chattering about how everything will be just fine very soon, and keep up all of the ridiculous happy-talk. Unbelievable.

Ego, more than likely. "If I keep on shouting, maybe somebody will notice me". Again, following the example from the top.

People deal with stress in different ways. That’s what you’re seeing OJ. Nobody’s diminishing the dire straits the nation finds itself in. Some folks want to keep buying as markets fall. Nothing to make you forget about the 15-20% week’s loss in your IRA than placing a bet on a new pony or two. Some people drink or turn to entertainment. Since the board is dedicated pretty much to financial matters, you’ll find it here - the good investment stories, the bad ones, and everything in between, even though we know that the health crisis vastly overshadows those pursuits.
I watch or read 4, 5, 6 hours news daily - a real junkie, always been. Bloomberg’s on a lot. Usually catch both the ABC & CBS network wrap-ups evenings. A bit of CNN and MSNBC. Overall, I’ll give them high marks on this one. Good objective reporting and advice. CNN had a hellova good discussion the other night with several top medical people along with the deliberate David Gergen, a veteran commentator with DC experience I’ve always respected. But a lot of people refuse to listen because the “news” networks have for so many years saturated the audience with sensational overly hyped “man-bites-dog” stories designed to pull in high ratings so that when the crisis of our lifetimes comes along, many dismiss it as just another sensationalized episode that will be over in a couple weeks.
Shopping today in an area supermarket the folks I encountered seemed oblivious to what’s going on. Bemused that anyone was concerned about the C Virus, which is progressing northward toward them. I don’t know how typical that is. A lot of people here have taken this seriously and likely are staying away from stores and other places people congregate. So, the ones I met are likely atypical - but do represent a certain element. I suppose only when our Governor declares a lockdown in maybe another week and / or their loved ones take ill will they face up to the situation.
Unfortunately (perhaps fortunately) this isn’t a political discussion board. My sense from the news I digest is that there’s a lot of blame to be placed on our national leadership for getting a late start in this, ignoring the seriousness early on and misrepresenting certain facets of the evolving situation even today. When you fire the competents who are willing to stand up to you and surround yourself with say-nothing incompetents, than these eventualities are likely to occur. So I’m angry. Am I gonna waste my time rolling around in the mud with the “other side”? No. Got more than enough to worry about right now and deeply concerned about many friends and loved ones spread across this vast land - many of whom I’ve been in touch with.
God bless California and New York. God help us all.

i would have done it sooner but i didn't want to pay the $50 fee at td ameritrade. penny wise and many thousands of greenbacks poorer. sigh.

...... Just trying think, for the moment, about some comparisons. This thing is unprecedented, yes? (Other than the bubonic plague?) The London Blitz:
When in doubt, stop and make a cup of tea. Eventually, this thing will be behind us. Rono's words make sense. Can we see the light at the end of the tunnel, yet? Even if we can, do we know how long the tunnel is?
https://d29k3dcgpah9r8.cloudfront.net/54d6c5deebacc0c815ef9f59aa29fc0d_500
At some point, these days will be in the past. THEN, we can assert:
"...Now, this is not the end. This is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."

There will truly need to be a response by the world's governments that is Marshall Plan-like, in order to recover. (That help was offered to uncle Joe Stalin The Terrible, but he refused it.) But the US is not pre-eminent, the way it was, right after The War. An emphasis on public welfare, not private profit, will need to happen. Like all of those alphabet-soup FDR programs. Let governments everywhere reclaim their purpose, SERVING THE PEOPLE. Then profits will follow. Because we'll never get rid of markets. Because they are useful, when REGULATED.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html

Good find. Here's the Fed's PR piece and the actual term sheet.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20200320b.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20200320b1.pdf
CNBC: "However, continued disruption in the markets for state and local government debt promoted the Fed to take further action in its efforts to combat coronavirus effects."
CNBC is saying that the reason for not having done this initially was door number 2 - that the government didn't think the muni market was sufficiently unstable. I'm not convinced, and think that doors one (poor communication) and three (reluctance to touch non-federal securities) are still possible explanations. Doesn't matter now, though.
A key difference between the way muni MMFs and everything else is being handled is that if a loan is made to anything else, the loan rate is set at prime plus 1%. For the muni MMFs, it's just prime plus 0.25%.

Down another 17% today.
So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mona posted.
Really, really hard couple days.

Oh, boy! Am I glad I didn't invest! I was going to in my IRA, but I bought ANGLX instead. Pray for me.

Down another 17% today.
So, clearly, everybody running for door (including me) and no willing buyers.
Extraordinary 5 years, until it wasn't, like Mark and Mona posted.
Really, really hard couple days.

https://m.stamfordadvocate.com/business/article/Federal-Reserve-backstops-muni-bond-market-as-15145736.php
/Federal Reserve backstops muni bond market as coronavirus hammers cash-strapped states and cities
The Federal Reserve capped off an unprecedented week of action Friday by extending a lifeline to cash-strapped state and local governments that are about to borrow large sums as they deal with skyrocketing costs from coronavirus safety measures./
Situations appear getting worse now. Feds and govt may not have nothing left/no where to hide next few wks after running out money
Any chance usa would bankrupt in few months?
Armageddon coming?

Incognito article search
Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/how-to-invest-in-a-time-of-turmoil-51584728227
How to invest in time of turmoil.
/The job of a sell-side analyst is to have a market forecast, says Inigo Fraser Jenkins, the outspoken portfolio strategist at Bernstein Research. But given the unprecedented collapse in growth expectations, accompanied by central bank interventions and the slump in asset prices, most strategists find themselves unable to price major benchmarks like the S&P 500 index. Still, he says, a strategist can provide a framework for looking at the market and probable future returns. He even says it could be time to buy stocks, if you have a two-year horizon./

Hi sir - thought maybe forming bottom past few days...thought we would get more upswing from today ... perhaps breakthrough at sp500 hovering around 2200 levels
DOWS -18% For week
When you see number deaths usa severely up and market still up/curve starting flattening, maybe good time to tiptoe in
Energy and other sectors appear extremely cheap though

Easy, NO. look at YTD performance.
I try not to use the word SAFE but volatile.
When rates are going up quickly Treasuries are one of the worse categories
When rates are going down, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
When a black swan hits, Treasuries are one of the best categories.
And when Treasuries are good longer term will do even better and why TLT is better than Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH). See (chart)

I will not start buying longer-term until I see the following:
When to buy Stocks? When the price will cross 100 days moving average.
SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, use this (link).
When to buy CEFs? PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive.
When to buy Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
With my own money, I'm mostly in cash/MM since 2/28 and at 99+% in MM since March 09. Since 2/28 I mostly trade and back to MM. I don't recommend it to others. Just wait for the above for an entry.

In a meltdown + selling pressure, many bonds fund would collapse. Even MINT was down -1.35% yesterday. YTD, MUNI (not HY Munis) which are usually "safe" are down too much, only treasuries survived.
2018 Deja Vu.
But, coming out of this mess we will have plenty of opportunities and IOFIX could be one of them.

That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
It's hard to read into the government announcement.
It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.

msf,
Will this support VMSXX?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html
Mona

BTW "tiny" doesn't begin to describe CEGSX - it has $139k per Morningstar, has a 1.75% expense ratio, and charges a load.

But still leaves the 10-year return for HSGFX at -6.54% PER YEAR -- or a loss of 50%. In a bull market. And that's despite being up almost 12% ytd.

In stark contrast this is how it's supposed to be done:
Stories of Hope

Such ideas are being discussed in the Executive Branch.

White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow likes the idea, one of the people said. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, although initially skeptical, is now more willing to do it, the people said.

Do they really think they're going to get people to buy a fifty year bond for 2 - 3%? They've been having problems selling the tens.
How about 8%. I might think about buying such a thing at that yield.
But let's imagine 5% or 6%. All of a sudden that income annuity my wife can get from TIAA looks pretty good. So we sell out all the stocks and bonds in her IRA to finance it. And I start looking around for a reputable income annuity for my IRA. And I sell all the stuff in my IRA, if it's worth anything at that point.
There are probably rosier scenarios. Maybe someone could point one out to me.

I bought TIAA's TSBRX in January as part of my effort to move more of my IRA into bonds.
It's off 4.82 since then. But it had a lower rating (BBB) and a longer duration (5.88) than the rest of the bond funds I bought. So, I'm not surprised it has fared worse. It was an outlier bet that my gloomy thoughts were wrong.