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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Hi @Mark
    I look at Fido and M* for numbers, but; I observe the bid/ask to guide me in what is happening at the time. I've obviously missed what Charles is pointing towards.
    I can fully understand a price and NAV difference in the past week with LQD; as 50% of the holdings are BBB rated, and in the current environment placed BBB on the edge of good junk. TLT is AAA Treasury stuff, although subject too, to folks wanting to sell at some point in time; but not right now.
    Thank you.
    Catch
  • sell the bump?
    +1 @Old_Joe, and it sounds like you practice what you preach.
    I split the difference, sold a chunk of VPCCX equal to about 5% of my overall portfolio. If the market shoots up again, I'll sell another 5%. If it drops, I'll wait for these up-and-down spikes to subside, then buy BIAWX.
  • Podcast: Your Crash Course in the Fed's Coronavirus Policy
    Business Casual from the Morning Brew:
    Your Crash Course in the Fed's Coronavirus Policy
    Art Goldsmith economics professor at Washington and Lee University
    Francis Scialabba
    We did our very best to explain how the Fed is responding to the economic crisis. But sometimes...with a topic as important as this you just gotta call in the experts. Washington and Lee University economics professor Art Goldsmith is that expert.
    We invited him on Morning Brew's Business Casual podcast to explain what the Fed's actions mean for your day-to-day, from getting a mortgage to choosing a bank. He also gives a master class on how Fed policy works, why it exists in the first place, and what we can expect from central bankers as COVID-19 derails the business world.
    This may be the most important Business Casual episode yet. It's also a reunion: Goldsmith was Business Casual host Kinsey Grant's econ professor in college.
    Listen here: Apple
    Or Spotify
    Everywhere else
  • sell the bump?
    @johnN It depends on each persons situation. I am 15 years into retirement. Our investment income currently contributes 25% to 30% to our annual household cash flow. But we can get by comfortably -- with a more modest lifestyle -- if that % drops to zero (the amount available to us this year will go down substantially from 30% if the market does not quickly rebound). My approach is different than would be necessary for a person who would be highly dependent on that income in retirement. Maybe other comments will help in that regard.
  • sell the bump?
    What do you do if you are near retirements. We do not know if tomorrow is another large down day. Many predict sp500 can even recede to 1700 levels for another 30s% down. Many near retire hardworking folks may have to break their backs working another 5 years until market recovers.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Related, more or less to this investment area....... story link below.
    Invesco Mort. Cap. REIT, IVR , Down -43% today. Can not meet margin calls.
    Overview indicates a -82% from 52 week high.
    Disclosure: we don't have any horses in this area of racing.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Howdy folks,
    Look around you and see what's working. Don't fall for the head feint to the airlines, hotels, casinos, tourism, Trump Resorts, etc. Sounds like they might get their bailout but they can't get 'demand' from the gov't. Demand for these industries will be depressed for years. Unless you're very, very nimble and are FOD, I'd focus on what will work and have demand going forward.
    Video conferencing and anything that replaces F2F with Virtual. Online shopping? Who does it? Who delivers? Schooling? All virtual.
    I'm adding to Asia and have been scaling in since just before this broke [yeah, bad timing but I didn't have to wait long to become whole]. For funds, I like the House of Matthews and am riding MPACX, MATFX, MCHFX. Needless to say, I'm all over the pm's with SLV, SILJ, GDXJ, CEF, and some junior miners.
    Most of my allocation is overseas at this point - say 85-90%. It's in both bonds and equities, mostly the former.
    Good luck,
    peace, and flatten the curve,
    rono
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Experience tell me in order to fully recover the loss that would be time, recovery time that is. During 2008 drawdown, S&P500 index took over 4 years to full recovery the loss from peak to trough. Depending on your asset allocation, it may be shorter (hopefully not longer).
    At presence the sell-off is severe, i.e. the rate of decline is even steeper than 2008. There are days when the supposedly opposite asset classes such as bond vs. equity move in the same direction, which indicates panic selling to cash. So jumping to one ship on fire to another is not a viable option to recover the loss.
    If you follow Charles Bolin article on MFO, he is near retirement and his portfolio is constructed very conservatively with 20% equity. He should be doing quite well now considering S&P 500 index is down over 30% as of 3/20/2020.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    I'm planning on riding the stock market back up with pretty much with what I rode it down with; however, I have increased my allocation to equities from 40% to 45% and reduced cash to from 20% to 15% and kept my fixed at 40%. I added to a couple of my equity income funds and also to a couple of funds held in the growth area of my portfolio at the 8%, 13%, 19%, 26% and 28% decline marks on the S&P 500 Index. With this, I'm positioned and now I await the rebound. In addition, since my portfolio generates a good income stream I'll put some of this income generation back into my portfolio as the stock market rebounds.
  • Recapturing Portfolio Loss
    Hi @_Bobpa
    I am not investment guru/expert, but I would imagine betting on more aggressive heavily stock driven portfolio [90/10], or Emerging market/oversea products may get you back to previous peak soon if there is indeed recovery. Many predict maybe few years before we see dows at 30000 levels. Others say recessions on horizon and unemployment rate maybe extremely high in near future and severe economiccontractions.
    For us late 40 years old, has many years until retirement, our portfolio still comprise 80/20, mostly index products. We are also couch potatoes thus we do hold Tdf 2045 funds in vanguard and schwab. We did not sell, hoping for market to recover soon
    Our largest holders currently :
    Brk.b
    Vanguard primecap core
    Vanguard emergent market etf VWO
    EEM
    Wellington fund vwelx
    Vanguard star vgstx
    Fbnd
    Bnd
    Vti
    Voo
    Been adding vde qqq and vti last week, even going all way downs
    Probably will sell good holding bonds [private-corp bbb ] soon, would need cash to pay uncle Sam 2019 tax next few weeks.
    Regards
  • David Sherman's updates (and offer) on RiverPark Short Term High Yield
    Hi @VintageFreak
    A quick look at the portfolio of the fund ( RSIVX ) you mentioned indicate why the recent price drops.
    First, a quick look at S&P's bond rating guide:
    "AAA" and "AA" (high credit quality) and "A" and "BBB" (medium credit quality) are considered investment grade. Credit ratings for bonds below these designations ("BB," "B," "CCC," etc.) are considered low credit quality, and are commonly referred to as "junk bonds".
    RSIVX , per M* has an overall rating of "B" rating. Also, as a compare; an excellent high yield/junk bond fund ARTFX has a SEC yield of 6.25%, while RSIVX has a SEC yield of 5.53%. For me, this also indicates that RSIVX is closer to "junk" status for its holdings.
    Corporate bonds in particular, have not fared well during this melt period.
    There remains a lot of stress going forward in the ability of companies to be able to service their debt properly.
    RSIVX bond grade holdings:
    Grade / Fund %
    AAA/ 0.00
    AA/ 0.00
    A/ 0.64%
    BBB/ 23.72%
    BB/ 30.51%
    B/ 38.18%
    Below B/ 6.95%
    Not Rated/ 0.00
    Lastly, regardless of the "name type" (strategic, total, etc.) of a fund, one needs to know what is under the hood, yes?
    My 2 cents worth.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    You can't take a big hit when you are at 99.5+% in a money market :-)
    so you keep reminding us; bully for you
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    You can't take a big hit when you are at 99.5+% in a money market :-)
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    ANGLX joined the party of "LOW SD SECURITIZED" category when it lost -3.6% today.   From the high(or pretty close to it) on March 4th, SEMMX lost 16+%...ANGLX 14+%...VCFAX close to 14%....IOFIX over 42%...DPFNX 19%...DHEAX 8.5...PMZIX 17%...BDKAX over 60%

    The SAGA of securitized isn't over yet
  • Money Market Funds
    Given recent questions about money market funds, it seemed worthwhile to post a few links with comments.
    Basic background on types of MMFs (from Vanguard):
    Money market reform: What you need to know (2014)
    https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/VGMMR.pdf
    Aside from institutional MMFs, there are government MMFs, prime MMFs, and muni MMFs. Government MMFs keep 99.5% of assets in federal government securities, cash, and repurchase agreements backed by federal securities. They are considered the safest (but see below), and are not required to impose redemption restrictions in times of stress. Prime MMFs are taxable MMFs that don't meet the 99.5% requirement (e.g. holding corporate paper). Muni MMFs hold (mostly) state, municipal, and territorial (e.g. Virgin Islands) paper.
    Splitting hairs on government MMFs, the safest are pure Treasury funds. While the funds themselves are not guaranteed by the Treasury, the underlying securities are. Other government funds may hold agency securities that are not backed by the full faith and credit of the government. See, e.g. Northern Trust US Government MMF NOGXX.
    Non-Treasury funds may also hold repurchase agreements. These not only introduce another (small) level of risk (see this Schwab paper) but are also not state tax-exempt. A few states (Calif., NY, Conn.) tax 100% of a MMF's income if too much of it comes from state-taxable paper like repurchase agreements.
    Retail prime and muni MMFs must impose gates and/or redemption fees in times of stress. That's said to happen if a fund's percentage of "highly liquid" assets fall below certain thresholds. Except for muni MM funds, at least 10% of assets must be in cash, Treasuries, or securities that mature within one day. There's also a weekly threshold of 30% which applies to muni funds as well as to prime funds.
    https://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-14.htm
    Because of the possible restrictions on redemptions, I would keep some cash in a bank or government MMF. At least enough for a couple of weeks, which is about as long as redemptions can be held up (10 business days).
    Aside from liquidity, there's the risk of breaking a buck. "[G]overnment and retail money market funds are allowed to try to keep their NAV at a stable $1.00 per share. These funds do this by using special pricing and valuation conventions when valuing the fund assets. ... If one of these money market fund’s NAV deviates by more than half a cent from $1.00, the fund would have to re-price its shares to something other than $1.00, which is known as “breaking the buck.” Therefore, if it deviates by more than half a cent below $1.00 (as one money market fund did in 2008 due to losses in the underlying investments), investors in the fund will likely lose money."
    https://www.sec.gov/oiea/investor-alerts-bulletins/investor-alerts-mmf-investoralerthtm.html
    Funds are now required to post their liquidity figures and their NAVs (out to four places) daily. So you can see how close they are coming to imposing redemption gates or breaking a buck. OJ asked about SWKXX. This is a good case study, and I suspect typical of muni MMFs these days. Its NAV has dropped in the past week from $1.0002 to $0.9987. While still comfortably about 99½¢, the speed of the drop invites close monitoring. On the other hand, its weekly liquidity has been quite stable.
    One keeps hearing that "we're in uncharted territory." That's often an exaggeration, but in this case I believe apt. These are new disclosure and enforcement regulations. Combined with the precipitous drop in security prices, we are at a place we have not seen before.
  • ? DSENX-DSEEX a little help please if you can
    I couldn't ever buy DSENX simply because I didn't really understand it. What I was able to see, and learned more about from all of you guys, is that it was leveraged, using derivatives. I am philosophically opposed to that sort of thing, anyhow. So, I put no money in it. This evening (still afternoon here,) I'm down one-fifth from the recent record-high in February. But that includes (as I always have done) wifey's 403b. It's a dividend-payer of the sort Old_Skeet has been recommending and buying. I guess we can't complain: a big chunk of that money was put into that account (VEIRX) by wifey's employer via the company match. I don't quite "get" why they do it this way, but they do: once per year in the Spring, there's a single, big dump of money into the 403b, but through the year, there is that "match," too, with every paycheck. That fund has fallen hard, -35%. It would seem to be a good time to BUY that fund, right now. Or wait. Because we will continue to go lower. Blame that pustule who is the Senate Majority Leader.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Hey, I'm taking the same hit on DSENX. Only had a couple of k there, so no big deal, but still down 1/3.
    As I've mentioned elsewhere, about a year ago I went to roughly 95% cash, because I figured that at 80 it was time to quit playing. But I kept a vestigial amount, roughly 2k, in most of the accounts. So I can see the total carnage- almost everything is down by 1/3. I'm no genius either.