Escape Plan For me, I'm an asset allocator and I manage risk and opportunity through maintaining and/or adjusting my asset allocation based upon my needs, risk tolerance and market conditions. Plus, I limit how much exposure I have to any one fund to better deal with fund manager and strategy risk.. I'm now 72+ years of age and have been an investor since the age of 12.
In 2008 & 2009 my asset allocation was 10% cash, 20% income and 70% equity. With this, I averaged down the equity side, booking a good bit of losses, as the market continued to side through this process. However, when things turned at the S&P 500 price level of 666, I was there to enjoyed the ride back up.
Through the years as equities became more overvalued I kept trimming my exposure to them and at retirement I was at an asset allocation of 15% cash, 35% income and 50% equity. This would have been around 2014. I maintained this asset allocation until a little better than a year ago. I continued to reduce my exposure to equities as they became more overvalued and reconfigured to a 20% cash, 40% income and 40% equity asset allocation. I wrote about doing this.
With the recession now in place I have moved to a 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity allocation. Thus far, in this debacle, I have sold nothing and have been a buyer on the equity side of my portfolio. Now that I have reached a near full asset allocation to equities I have now become a buyer on the income side of my portfolio. This is because many bonds have now taken a hit and from my perspective they offer better value than just holding a greater percentage of cash. Since, my portfolio also generates a good bit of income this gives me the ability to continue to buy in down markets or take the money to my wallet, if needed.
I've been on the board back into the FundAlarm days and have detailed my investment activity through these years. For me, the asset allocation model of investing has worked well although, at times, I've traded around the edges using special investment positions (spiffs). I've written about these in the past as well.
FWIW ... Overall, my success in investing, through the years, has come by staying invested and receiving the benefit of organic growth plus compounding. I was there in 1974 with that debacle as well as those that came during the 80's. And, I've been a buyer in all of them including this current bear market which will pass as well.
And ... so it goes.
Wishing all ... "Good Investing."
I am ... Old_Skeet
Escape Plan Hi Sirs...
Maybe too late to get out now. Old_skeet snd catch22 post good investing monthly commentary/strategies. Maybe others posted good guides to follow if retired /closed to retirement. I am so glad following many others advise and place mom retired portfolio into conservative last year, 35/65. She lost very little past few months. I got out after Ted got out in ~ 2019.
I think we will see seesaw patterns next 4-6 weeks /much volatility until everything open up again/slow recovery. Not everything is working currently even CDs so low yields. You can argue stocks are getting cheaper now and these maybe good vehicles to buy moving forward. Corp Bonds not doing well because companies have no revenues going forward and may not be able to pay their creditors.
If you feel unease perhaps consider place at least 40-60% of portfolio divided in incomes based products [corp bonds/munis/US Tbonds]. Rest of portfolio divided evenly in cash and stocks. You may not loose much on downs days but may not go up if indeed recovery is on the way. Once you see there us indeed recovery 3 -6 months from today perhaps start slowly buy more equities by then.
Stocks /market maybe lower 4-5 weeks from today, but could be much higher 4-5 years from today
Maybe another easier lazy approaches maybe redistribute bulk of your portfolio into Tdf 2015 and cash. let it ride by itself, not much worries.
If you have schwab or fidelity, maybe reasonable to visit their cpa/investment advisors then possibly make up/draw up new escape plans after
On other thought, maybe a great buyer market imho if you have 15 yrs left.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever I would tend to agree with his thesis and have begun to transition my portfolio along those lines. I am for the most part a 'dividend growth investor' holding perhaps 15-20 individual dividend paying securities of the buy-and-hold type and not as trading vehicles. I am evaluating each as I struggle to determine which will hold together as we move to this new investing market. In both the back of my mind as well as the forward looking view is which of these will my children view as worthy and which will be deemed dumb old dad stuff. Why did that goof leave us with this mess? Fun times.
Specific examples: Energy Sector I used to hold a number of MLP's but I've sold them all off. I now only hold EPD, primarily a midstream natural gas distributor. Lately I've mentioned toying with taking a trading position in XLE as I believe those companies have been excessively oversold. But primarily my future interests lie in the solar and alternative energy direction and this is where my investment dollars are headed.
The QQQ's - All things Internet or the Internet of Things a force not to be denied. Nearly everyone, everywhere has their face buried in a screen of some type (the sad reality) and how much of it is streaming services. About a month ago I mentioned consideration of taking a position on ViacomCBS premised around their streaming services. Analysts thought they were undervalued at $34 after having dropped from $60 something. A merger and owner Sheri Redstone were the main culprits precipitating that drop. I took a position at $32. It dropped further to $30 and I sold but continued to watch. Today it sits at $12 something and I'm not sure it's down falling. More research I guess. But still nearly all things will be online focused and why I'm watching the QQQ's like a hawk.
I still prefer a regular flow of monthly income but if it becomes one of capital appreciation so be it.
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space At the end of January the advisor for my retirement funds asked me if I'd be comfortable with a 17% drawdown in return for a chance at equivalent higher returns. I said yes, but I too was really not thinking that my portfolio (then about 57% equities) would decline precipitously. Not sure how I would answer the question today, nor how financial advisors are going to have to alter their advice. Maybe in hindsight this period won't feel like a game changer, but it certainly does now. FWIIW, no advised me to get into Alpha Centric.
Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning Hi
@davfor, Thanks for stopping by and asking for my thoughts on PFANX. I have owned this fund in the past. My answer is, though, in a question form. What is there not to like? It is selling off its
52 week high by 16%, has a yield of
5.8
5%. and carries a rating of
5* from Morningstar. MFO rates it in their system as a risk level 2 fund with an overall composite rating of
5.
Generally I position cost average into new positions; but, with an open to buy on the income side of my portfolio it could become a full position purchase in the near term.
Retirement Strategy: New Investing Paradigm May Change Dividend Growth Investing Forever
Cracker Barrel, Olive Garden Parent Darden Suspend Dividends as Business Falters @Anna - I can neither confirm or deny this snippet from Barrons:
"Pg 3
5: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! PTIMX YTD=0.1%....BMBSX YTD=0.5% and its bond rating is much higher.
For 1-3 years PTIMX has better performance.
It depends on what you try to achieve.
If you do this now, you might be able to double your retirement portfolio
Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning As of market close March 27th, according to the metrics of Old_Skeet's stock market barometer, the S&P 500 Index remains extremely oversold with a reading of 175. This is on the high side of the barometer's scale. A higher barometer reading indicates there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading.
This past week, the weekly short volume average increased, a little, from 59% to 60% of the total volume for SPY. However, the VIX (which is a measure of volatility) declined from a reading of 62 to 54. This is good as the stock Index's valuation gained ground during week moving from a reading of 2305 to 2541 for a gain of 10.2% but has a decline of 25% from it's 52 week high. With this, the Index remains in bear market territory.
From a yield perspective, I'm finding that the US10YrT is now listed at 0.68% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.92%. With the recent stock market swoon the S&P 500 Index is currently listed with a dividend yield of 2.29% while at the beginning of the year it was listed at 1.82%. As you can see there is a good yield advantage for the stock Index over the US Ten Year Treasury at this time. With this yield advantage, I'm favoring my equity income funds on the equity side of my portfolio as I'm investing more for income generation more so than capital appreciation being retired. And, I feel my equity income funds presently offer me greater total return going forward, more so, than most of my bond funds.
I also feel that the stock market is oversold; but, not so much for bonds. It seems bonds are just now starting to look more attractive due to the sell off some have received this past week due to liquidity factors. According to my advisor, with whom I speak with weekly, the good stuff is still getting sold to cover margin calls as those margined are short of cash. For some asset classes, that are thinly traded, there seems to have been a liquidity crunch which has created downward price pressure. This for some investors could mean opportunity. And, now that I have a near full asset allocation in equities I have now begun to shop on the income side of my portfolio. Some funds that are on the income side of my portfolio that I'm seeing value in along with opportunity are FLAAX ... FRINX ... and, JGIAX.
My three best performing funds this week were all found in the growth area of my portfolio. They were LPEFX +16.51% ... PGUAX +14.04% ... and, AOFAX +12.87%.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Have a good week ... and, I hope all goes well for you.
I am, Old_Skeet
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions Regarding Boeing, it's quite possible that the company is just using the virus as a cover for eliminating its dividend. Sure, it put on a brave face in January (
"Boeing CEO says it will keep paying its dividend despite Max crisis").
But it did that by choosing to stop 737 production (thus "saving" cash), rather than cutting its dividend and using the cash to keep its supply chain in place. Now with the virus Boeing has the perfect excuse for doing what it should have done in the first place, suspend its dividend.
It had exhausted its credit lines. "
According to AFP banking sources, the aircraft manufacturer drew on the full $14 billion credit line it only just secured from banks last month". It had negative shareholder equity (-$8.6B) at the
end of 2019. It couldn't have sustained the facade much longer, virus or not.
From The New Republic, December 23, 2019,
Boeing Axes CEO as Company Hits New Heights of Self-Denialhttps://newrepublic.com/article/156092/boeing-axes-ceo-company-hits-new-heights-self-denial
Literally everyone The New Republic has approached on the vexing question of why Boeing keeps coughing up dividends throughout this fiasco has said the same thing, using almost the exact same words: Boeing has been extremely effective at pacifying Wall Street. Throughout this nightmarish year, Boeing’s stock has remained rock steady and may yet end the year with a modest gain. “Investors”—“people” even—“rely” on those dividends. If Boeing slashes or suspends its dividend, it will send “shock waves” throughout Wall Street.
From the NYTimes, December 16, 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/boeing-737-max.html
At the very moment Boeing announced it was ceasing production of its most important product, the company took steps to meet Wall Street’s expectations. As it announced the shutdown on Monday, it sent a simultaneous news release announcing a regular quarterly dividend for shareholders.
Massive Carnage In The CEF Space I think you missed my main point. If you use his services he has 3 portfolios for you to select from, the funds/ETF/CEFs/whatever in each and all the trades he does. So yes, you do know his portfolios in detail.
Going to cash with these portfolios and/or what other managers do? I doubt many do it because most managers don't have this flexibility, after all, you pay them to invest your money. Over the years I looked at many mutual funds and from memory, I remember Romick with FPACX at 30-40% cash and Eric Cinnamond in 2008-9 (can't remember the fund) was over 50% in cash.
I don't know any fund that invests at any given time so much in cash.
But, I can do what I want and it's the first time I ever sold everything. It was a great move I will remember for many years to come and probably saved me about 25-30%.
I did sell in the past 20-40% but never that much.
My situation has changed too, I'm retired now so protecting my capital is very important.
So, maybe you should say good for you. I love when other investors are making money and making great moves.
Since I'm flexible I can own any fund at any given time and since last week I'm mostly in HY munis. Why do you need to see my portfolio at all times? if you know my style (2-3 funds) and I said in January this year and several times after that I owned HY Munis and the 3 funds I like are NHMAX,ORNAX,OPTAX and the rest are in Multi and I mentioned IOFIX as the best one, you don't need to be rocket scientist to know that I probably own 2-3 funds out of these 4 funds.
In the last 1-2 days, I also said that since last week I'm in again mostly in HY munis, which funds do think I have? really?
Coronavirus Dividend Cuts and Suspensions "In this article I discuss dividend cuts or suspensions resulting from the coronavirus and oil price wars. Currently I count 49 total companies that have cut the dividend since the end of February to March 27,2020. Please see the list at the bottom of the article. Most of the companies are in the travel, leisure, hospitality, restaurant, REITs, or energy sectors. The two most prominent dividend cuts to date are Occidental Petroleum (OXY) and Boeing (BA)."
by Dividend PowerIn a related vein there is also this found snippet which I can neither confirm or deny from the latest issue of Barrons:
"Pg 3
5: Many companies have cut or suspended dividends [MAR, F, JWN, BA] to conserve cash in anticipation of revenue and cash flow declines. But some financials, healthcare [CVS] and techs [INTC, TXN] may continue with their dividends – they may cut on buybacks and/or capex instead. [Companies that get bailout funds under CARES Act would have to suspend dividends and buybacks]."
IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't It was a quick unique black swan. The last one, 2008-9, was slower. The hard part, the next one can be years from now and you would invest based on the last fiasco. Many would buy US bond index or treasuries just to see an average annual return of 2-2.5% in the next several years.
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking.
A long narrative about nothing. We are talking about US tot bond index. The following 3 different funds from 3 different companies are very close. For
5 years as of 3-27-2020...BND(VG)+FXNAX(Fidelity)+AGG(Blackrock) performance is 3.36-3.37%.
This is what you call investing based on an index and why they are so close.
I didn't say ALL indexes in all cases, but, you knew all that.
Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !! Isn't this bond crash just a misallocation of capital? In reality, those who bought into bond funds that crashed hard took on bad debt, the conduit being the fund itself.
FD, several weeks ago, I commented on the investing principle of Taleb's or Bodie's black swan investing approach...85-90% of funds invested in the safest investment possible, the balance invested aggressively...I think that style has worked well and will continue to work well going forward. To the point you made then and for certain, one would have made greater gains over the past decade but then again the best gains can be made by compounding wealth, limiting drawdowns.
Not sure that I would touch Muni bonds here...recognizing there are many different types of muni bonds, I can't see folks buying new cars going forward, don't see how muni's can raise property taxes, folks will just stop paying them, local shops are going to be slow to ramp back up if at all, can only write so many parking tickets...and is counting on the gov't to fund/backstop an investment really investing or is it smart to do so, meaning having the wind at your back, kind of like front running the POMO (published permanent open market operations) in prior QE programs?
Good luck and good health to all,
Baseball Fan
AGG Up 8.4% This Week
DODIX, FTBFX, BOND are managed bond funds while AGG,BND and VBTLX follow the US Total bond index and why they are very close long term.
Usually, but not always. Index funds, especially bond index funds, are also managed, though perhaps not in the way you are thinking. I'll just quote Vanguard from its
2002 annual report for VBTLX:
Of course, the objective of an index fund is to track its target benchmark closely. On this score, three of our four funds came up significantly short. The Total Bond Market Index Fund--our oldest and biggest bond index fund--returned 8.3%, well below the 10.3% return of the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index. Our Short-Term and Intermediate-Term Bond Index Funds also trailed their target indexes by about 2 percentage points. The Long-Term Bond Index Fund's return was within 0.4 percentage point of the target.
...
As we explained in our report to you six months ago, our funds' returns will typically differ from those of the indexes for two primary reasons: The funds incur expenses that the indexes do not, and the funds' holdings do not exactly replicate those held by the indexes. The expense difference will always work against us in our goal of providing close tracking. The difference in holdings arises from our "sampling" approach to indexing, which is necessary because it would be impractical and very costly to own all the bonds in the target indexes.
Around that time, the
WSJ wrote:
Those are huge discrepancies in the bond world, and an embarrassment for the Malvern, Pa., firm whose name is practically synonymous with index funds. The flexibility to deviate from the benchmark index is disclosed in the Vanguard's prospectuses for its bond index funds, but nonetheless is surprising for those under the impression an index fund mechanically invests in the securities making up its benchmark.
"Indexing" is not synonymous with "unmanaged". Vanguard had tinkered with sector weightings. As the WSJ notes later in the article, it didn't change the prospectus in response to the poor management performance. The prospectus remains the same to the current day.
Prospectus wording
then (April 2012) and
now (April 2019):
In addition, each Fund keeps industry sector and subsector exposure within tight boundaries relative to its target index. Because the Funds do not hold all the securities in their target indexes, some of the securities (and issuers) that are held will likely be overweighted (or underweighted) compared with the target indexes. The maximum overweight (or underweight) is constrained at the issuer level with the goal of producing well-diversified credit exposure in the portfolio.
Italics in original. What's "tight"? At least
Fidelity quantifies the guardrails for its "index" fund: "The Adviser expects the fund's investments will approximate the broad market sector weightings of the index within a range of ±10%."
Stocks close sharply lower after massive 3-day rally fizzles out "Stocks ended sharply lower Friday, giving back some of the strong gains from the previous three days to cap another volatile week on Wall Street.
Sentiment took a hit as investors focused back on the coronavirus outbreak as the U.S. became the country with the most confirmed cases.
The Dow closed down 91
5 points, or 4%. The S&P
500 slid 3.3%, while the Nasdaq shed 3.8%."
Article From CNBC
AGG Up 8.4% This Week Hi
@davidrmoranYou noted:
since the first week of March
My bad. Okay, so; the beginning of the week.....March 2 or the end date of the first week of March.
What date ? Will try to get the graph to stick for a short time frame to move data here.
OR, one may click and hold the left edge of the 2
54 day period and slide to the right to about 20 days to arrive very close to the beginning of March.
Regards,
Catch