Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing company, TMC leads the world in contract manufacturing for these chipsets. And there are several more including one Chinese one (5th ?). Lot to catch up as the capacity has max out. TMC is building a plant in US but this will not solve the immediate shortage.
As investors it is important to check the top 10 holdings in your international funds or ETFs. TMC is held in many funds.

@FD1000 Krugman won his Nobel in 2008 for his contributions to New Trade Theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_trade_theory, so I'm not sure why his political beliefs in 2016 have anything to do with the prize and that you should be amazed by it. Now can you explain why Kissinger deserved the Nobel for en-miring us in Vietnam and for inciting actions in places like Argentina many have described as those of a war criminal?
https://newyorker.com/news/news-desk/does-henry-kissinger-have-a-conscience
https://vox.com/2016/5/9/11640562/kissinger-pentagon-award

Here is the peer reviewed article from MIT researchers and published in PNAS, a scientific journal with high impact factor. The article was reviewed three times before it was accepted to be published by the reviewers.
https://pnas.org/content/pnas/118/17/e2018995118.full.pdf
The initial assumptions was that the virus transmitted principially through, (1) contaminated surfaces, (2) large droplets and (3) aerosol form. The initial CDC guidance focus on points 1 and 2, and aerosol form transmission is unlikely. 6' social distancing came from an earlier guidance with other infectious diseases.
Interview with Dr. Bazant (the author in the article above) in cnbc focused on COVID transmission in an indoor environment where particles exist as aerosol form. The MIT data suggested Thus it is time factor spent in this environment is the dominant factor while filtration (face mask) and distance (6' social distance) are less important. Air flow and circulation will reduce transmission.
Will review the article more thoroughly and post more later.

@MikeM.
I couldn't agree more. Everything is uniquely situational, but a person who is waiting until age 70 (to collect SS) will more than likely continue working (through their 60's). That is why running your own numbers is so important.
Thanks @msf for your data sets.. your links and use of PV for this exercise is very helpful.
Some additional considerations:
If, at 62, this "worker" takes early SS, continues to work and they earmark that portion of their SS income (what SS pays each month) into a workplace or individual retirement account it would eliminate the tax implications (so long as these retirement vehicles were tax deferred) right up through age 70 and beyond. At age 70, the early SS recipient they will have a smaller SS benefit plus a "tax deferred SS nest egg".
In the spreadsheet above, the cash strategy pays out the same number of dollars as a person who waits to start collecting their SS at age 70 right out through age 86. What I feel is important to remember is that the early SS payouts (which I'll call the differential) sits in the pocket of the individual as early as age 62. The individual has the choice of using it as income at anytime. If it was previously invested into a tax sheltered account it remains their until it's withdrawn for income. A person waiting until age 70 has no choice but to count every SS dollar as income.
@davidmoran @kings53man,
These SS dollars are not guaranteed to you while you wait to reach FRA or age 70. A person who sits around waiting to turn 70 to collect SS collects nothing (SS benefit) if they predecease their 70th birthday and collects less (total accumulated SS benefit) if they die before age 86.
I haven't explored QLACs but they might be just the thing missing to address longevity risk:
what-is-qualified-longevity-annuity-contract-qlac/

Why Choose a QLAC?
A QLAC has several advantages for retirees:
- Long-term income security. If you’re worried that your retirement savings might not last for the long haul, a QLAC can offer some peace of mind. QLACs provide guaranteed income later in retirement and can act as hedges against long-term care costs later in life.
- RMD deferral. If you’re looking to minimize how much money you’re required to draw from your retirement accounts, a QLAC allows you to delay distributions on a portion of your savings up until you turn 85.
- Principal protection. A QLAC locks in future payments, protecting your retirement money from market dips later in life. But unless you purchase an inflation rider, which will lower the initial amounts you receive from an annuity, your monthly payment may lose value over time.
- Income for your spouse. If you set up a QLAC as a joint annuity, it will continue paying income as long as you or your spouse is still living. That said, joint annuities tend to offer lower payments due to this benefit.

Not sure what the motivation is in this article? Many investors hold broad based index funds and ETFs. They are commonly available to their retirement accounts, 529 college saving plans, and many other.

FRA - Full Retirement age.
I foresee that 85% of my SS Income will be taxable.

Thanks Catch. What I’m wondering is whether the numbers displayed have been adjusted for changes to the method of computing CPI over that time?
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp
As the linked article points out, some think recent changes to the CPI computation tend to understate actual inflation when compared with earlier standards.
Numbers can lie and can also be made to represent whatever you want. IF we factor in the improvements to overall standard of living since the 30s, we might end up with negative inflation numbers. Does anyone want to go back to the time when homes were heated with coal that you shoveled into your furnace by hand? Cars got 10-15 mpg and lacked automatic trannies or AC? AM radio was the latest form of home entertainment?
Above points to how hard it is to measure actual inflation when the things we take as “normal” or “necessary” keep changing. I do remember paying $2500 for an Apple 2e + green screen in the 80s. And $600 for a clunky dot matrix printer to go with it. 1980s technology can be had for much less today - if you can find it. So - is that how we should compute inflation?

...seeing that guestimates for IBonds re rating on May 1st estimates for inflation variable rate going up to 3.54%?
That's higher than it's been in ~ 10 years? I guess it makes sense...
FWIW, I pay no attn to the propoganda and the esteemed columnists in the NYTimes. Right or wrong, I'll think for myself and not what others signal to me how I should think.
Not for me, no thanks.
Best,
Baseball Fan

@Chinfist, apologies but I am not qualified to answer your question. I haven't planned on it as my thinking is that at this point anything that I recover will be a postitive. In my mind, I'm positioning my investment in IQDAX as a sunk cost and a somewhat cheap lesson as to not get involved in any "black boxey" type of investment as I get older and "wiser". Ouch. Hoping to get ~ 50-60% of my monies invested back. Based on my past experiences, I'm thinking this will drag on in the courts for several years.
Appears that the young man who ran this fund believes he did nothing wrong.
What a sheet show. Good Luck to you and stay healthy!
Baseball Fan

"The global computer chip shortage could have larger ramifications than making it harder to buy the latest video game console or more expensive to buy a car. According to a new Goldman Sachs (GS) note, the slowdown in chip availability could in theory smack U.S. GDP by as much as 1% in 2021.
In a research note led by Goldman’s Spencer Hill, an analysis looked at the economy-wide effects of the shortage by assuming a 20% chip shortfall that lasts three quarters and affects the 169 U.S. industries that use semiconductors in their products."
What the chip shortage means for the US economy

"Second point. what if your ss is banked for 3+ years & market takes a very heavy hit. Recovery takes 3-4 years to recover"
If the worst three years happen early in the accumulation phase (ages 62-70) you come out better, because you've banked only three years of SS checks. If the worst years are closer to age 70 ("retirement"), you take the worst hit.
To see what happens if the worst three years are just after you "retire" at age 70 (age 70-73), try out the PV Age 70+ simulation above, and set "Sequence of Returns Risk" to "worst 3 years first". You're virtually guaranteed of losing if you live to age 83, and a 50/50 chance of losing if you just live to age 80.

@bee : "The main reason this strategy seems optimal to me is that Social Security has no cash value upon death."
Not so, there is a death benefit but rather quite loooow ! Less than $300. I think it's $255, but wouldn't bet on it.
Second point. what if your ss is banked for 3+ years & market takes a very heavy hit. Recovery takes 3-4 years to recover. Good luck with that plan.
Now for those that can bank their ss, go for it, but remember this isn't a guaranteed plan
As Crash stated, "Everybody is different."
Stay safe, Derf

@bee - your "image" doesn't include a link to an image.
Below are a couple of links to Portfolio Visualizer; it's easy to tweak the inputs to see how things would go under different assumptions. With my usual qualifications that I'm setting PV up to run a simplistic, normal distribution model that bears only a passing resemblance to reality.
SS adjusts payments for inflation, so the calculations are in real, 2021 dollars. The cited article says that (in 2021 dollars) taking SS at age 62 for this person would pay $2060/mo, while waiting until age 70 would pay $3643/mo.
Thus, if one takes the money starting at age 62 and invests it, then starting at age 70 that nestegg would have to provide (in 2021 dollars) $1583/mo (the difference) until death for the same income. If you run out of nestegg money before death you lose - you draw only $2060 rather than $3643 from that point until death. If there's anything left of the nestegg when you die, you win. What's left over is your bonus.
I've set up the accumulation phase (age 62-70) to contribute $2060/mo, inflation adjusted. I've set inflation at 2%, 0 volatility, and rate of return at 7% with 12% volatility (about that of VWELX). Make sure to check the inflation adjusted box at the bottom of the graph (to get the value in 2021 dollars rather than nominal 2029 dollars). Mouse over the graph to get the age 70 value after 8 years.
You've got a 50/50 chance (50th percentile) of doing better or worse than about $235K.
For the age 70+ phase, you have to withdraw a net $1583 as explained above. Again, I've used 2% inflation, 0% volatility, 7% rate of return, 12% volatility. And I took the $235K from the accumulation phase as the starting portfolio value.
This will show you how long your nestegg might last - will it outlast your life (you win) or will it run out early (you lose)? It depends on the parameters you pick, what you expect your lifetime to be, and what percentile of likely outcomes you choose to look at.

PV Accumulation Phase
PV Age 70+ Phase (up to age 100)

I can't read the article but if Krugman said that inflation is going to be way up, he will be wrong and not the first time, see (2016). I'm amazed he got the Nobel Memorial Prize.
Let's talk inflation:
The ANNUAL inflation may get to 3-4% in the next a few/several months because it's compared to last year meltdown. In Q4/2021 and on I don't see anything beyond 2.5-3% and for several months consistently.
Remember, monthly CPI is relative to last month. If an item goes up 10% and next month stays the same then next monthly inflation for this item is zero.
Example: Gas at the pump jumped about 20% YTD (similar for 12 months) but is flat for about a month now(link).
We have been borrowing from the future for over 10 years already. In the years ahead it will get slower. The Fed welcome 2% (maybe 2.5%) long term inflation. Add to it big tech replacing jobs and improving processes + global competition, and you get tame inflation.

Has his status changed recently? From 2015 WSJ:
Mr. Rogers: "I am an American citizen, I pay American taxes, I vote in America. I think of myself as an American living abroad. I’m one of those Americans who’s living wherever he wants to."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-272B-782

There has been an ongoing debate as to when to start taking Social Security, as early as age 62, as late as age 70 or sometime in between.
Here's an article from The Retirement Manifesto that details the debate:
https://theretirementmanifesto.com/should-you-take-social-security-at-age-62-or-70/
I use the author's SS numbers to create a strategy that take SS at 62, but not for income. The SS benefit is instead invested over the next 8 years (until age 70). I create (4) investment options (investment allocations) that attempts to achieve a 3%, 6%, or 10% or an all cash return.
My strategy takes Social Security at age 62 and letting those payments accumulate for eight years...the time frame between age 62 and 70. This allows eight years of accumulated Social Security payments creating a "SS nest egg" . At age 70, this accumulated "SS nest egg" then can provide a withdrawal strategy that would equal the differential of the higher SS payout. If one were to die early this SS nest egg acts like a life an insurance policy for a spouse or other beneficiary.
The main reason this strategy seems optimal to me is that Social Security has no cash value upon death. By collecting SS at age 62.... as early as possible.... one secures at least those payments while waiting to start SS at age 70. I would rather start accumulating payments while waiting to reach age 70 and invest rather than purely waiting until age 70.
Achieving a average return above 5% would be optimal for this strategy. Here a look at the numbers:

I'm with Fidelity and Schwab for years. I never waited at Schwab more than 1-2 minutes and many times the reps work from home.
In the last 2-3 years, I waited several times at least 20-30 minutes at Fidelity and then they transferred me again to the "right" rep and waited long again.
I don't use sophisticated trading software, I mostly buy funds/indexes and when I buy a stock, it's pretty easy to use the normal tools they have.
These sophisticated trading software are for Trading-Obsessed. I tried a couple of these years ago and after several months of practicing and even trading (and fast daily trading including E-mini SP500/Russell/QQQ futures) they didn't enhance my results.

@JohnN - You need to distill all that disjointed data for us. Otherwise, as noted / implied above, it’s just drivel.

distill - dis·till verb
/dəˈstil/
1. purify (a liquid) by vaporizing it, then condensing it by cooling the vapor, and collecting the resulting liquid.
2. extract the essential meaning or most important aspects of.
Source
Does it surprise anyone that short-term bonds would end up at the bottom of the return ladder after 15 years of falling interest rates?

”Schwab and TDA had insane phone hold times in recent months. On Friday I called both and got thru each time in under 2 minutes. Amazing!”

- With 15% of all current investors new to the game, I’d imagine there’s increased need for telephone-based “hand-holding” than for the older crowd who’ve been at it awhile.
- On the subject of websites - TRP has done a great job with recent upgrades. I don’t know of anything else that comes close in terms of amount of data (account and otherwise) that can be accessed - or for ease of navigation. Invesco, on the other hand, has one of the most awkward / confusing setups I’ve ever experienced.

Another tidbit from Barron’s:
“The average institutional equity fund, which includes mutual funds and capital ETFs, Is now holding a relatively low 4% of its portfolio in cash, according to Bank of America, which says a figure any lower would be a signal to sell, while an increase to 5% would indicate a buy.”
(Barron’s April 26, 2021)
“Buy? Sell?” / Commentary from BOA is obviously a subjective opinion.