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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Thank you...
    We have added qqq pdi fxi brk.b vanguard2045 past few days. Slowly dca
    Hope economy recovers with limited openings soon
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    Hello guys. Today (Tuesday) looks to be another up day. As I write, this morning about an hour and a half before the market opens, the S&P 500 stock futures are up close to 80 points or about 3%.
    The futures... https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Dodge and Cox
    @FD1000
    The whole idea of the SP500 is the fact that the best companies get to the top and why this simple "stupid" cheap brilliant idea works
    Do the best companies always get to the top? That is the $10,000 question. Saying they do is basically an argument for efficient markets, that only the best companies rise to the top and are priced as they should be. If you believe that, fine. Many people do. But then there's no reason to be on a board devoted to undiscovered actively managed funds like this one. In fact, your investment decision is relatively simple. Buy Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) and be done with your equity allocation. No need to consider factor active funds D&C's or factor index ones like VTV because the market is always right in such a view.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    An update. With the S&P 500's 175 point gain today (+7%) Old_Skeet's stock market barometer now scores the Index with a reading of 165. This moves the Index, on the barometer's scale, from Extremely Over Sold (175) to Oversold (165). A lower barometer reading indicates that there is less investment value in the Index than a higher reading.
    I did some tax loss selling today and sold PMAIX & APIUX. I plan on putting the sell proceeds to work in the near term. My targeted buys are PFANX (new position) and funds I plan to add to are DIFAX, FBLAX, FRINX, AZNAX, IDIVX & DWGAX. Thank you @davfor for noting PFANX to me last week. I am also saving a little to add to CTFAX after it makes its June distribution which I estimate to be a sizeable one.
    I am still with my plan to direct the portfolio's income generation into the income sleeve with targeted buys in BLADX, FLAAX & JGIAX during the second quarter and perhaps on through summer.
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Dodge and Cox
    I do sometimes wonder when there are contentious posters who rarely comment on this board and then suddenly do to insult folks if some people don't have multiple identities here. I know it's happened before.
    D&C has a number of positive traits analysts like--low fees, low turnover or trading costs, long tenured managers, carefully thought out products without an excess of launches, a lack of celebrity jerk managers from the team approach and consistency of style. All of that said, value has been a terrible place to be since the end of the 2008 crash. D&C are value managers and ones that sometimes take on more risk than they should, investing in particular in financial stocks that can suffer from leverage problems for instance. That is a value managers' bread and butter, but some competing value managers have done better with more of a quality overlay. High quality value--with less leverage and more consistent earnings--is not as cheap as "value classic," but it tends to hold up better in downturns.
    Oh, regarding the S&P 500 fund(s), it most definitely isn't a value fund. The way it works is at the beginning of a bull market it has value characteristics and at the end of one it has growth characteristics as the largest most popular stocks dominate it. What it really is is a momentum fund, and when the momentum is positive as it has been for a long time until now, the most popular stocks get an increasingly large weighting and they are invariably the growthiest names. Comparing it to D&C most definitely is wrong.
    The larger question that seems to get asked repeatedly on this board is is value investing dead? A better question I think is do you think the tech sector darlings that comprise the lion's share of growth indexes will continue to dominate the world forever or will other less popular sectors eventually make a comeback? The academics would have us believe that as the ur-factor bigger than JC in finance, it must eventually come back. But much of what constitutes financial academia is really weak science at best. There is a lot more evidence for anthropogenic climate change, and a significant portion of failed scientists/poor mathematicians and snakeoil salesmen in finance don't believe in that, yet do believe in the value factor or say they do to sell their actively managed higher cost products.
    Can't claim the expense ratio card when VTV beat DODGX
    D&C love financial and it costs them. That tells me they are stubborn instead of looking for better choices.
    No, we don't question value, we question DODGX for short+long term. It's already 15 years that they fall behind the "stupid" VTV.
    How can you make excuses for DODGX when this value fund was worse on the way up and much worse in market meltdowns
    Well, why not make up a unique fund strategy such as the following...our goals are to invest mostly in LC but if we find good value in SC+MC we can use too...and this way nobody can compare our fund to anything ;-)
    The whole idea of the SP500 is the fact that the best companies get to the top and why this simple "stupid" cheap brilliant idea works, so now you say, wait, no more, not fair...really?
    But I always let the numbers talk, after all, numbers are more objective. I looked up MFO database for the last 10 years for LC value. For MFO,Sharpe,Martin rating DODGX ranks at 3 out of 5, there are so many better options. VTV=VIVAX is at the top ranking at 5.
    VTV has better performance than DODGX from 1 to 15 years but also lower SD. VTV is based on "an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the CRSP US Large Cap Value Index" how can you defend thousands of hours of analysis fall short to an index? :-)
    So, I'm expecting someone to post...well, if you look for 20-25-30 years then...nope, 15 years is long enough and year to date looks awful for DODGX. Sure, you can wait another 10 years and hope for better results.
    BTW, do you expect the financial to get you back to even? :-)
    Lastly, posters who defend DODGX probably own it.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • MARKETS Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/stock-market-live-updates-dow-futures-up-750-nasdaq-futures-up-4percent-bottom-in.html
    /Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stock market live Monday: Dow rises 1,600, up 20% from low, Yellen’s shocking forecast
    Stocks jumped as Wall Street bounced back from a steep market sell-off—Three experts on state of the markets
    Stocks ripped higher to start the holiday-shortened week as a combination of positive headlines eased investor angst after last week’s abysmal March jobs numbers. Though the White House said this week’s COVID-19 deaths could be substantial, the administration struck a more optimistic tone at its press conference on Sunday. Here’s what happened:
    4:30 pm: Rally by the numbers
    Dow closed up 1,627.46 points or 7.73%, at 22,679.99, posting its third biggest point gain ever
    Year to date: Dow is down 20.53%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the Dow lost 33.64%
    From Record: Dow is 23.30% below its intraday all-time high of 29,568.57 from Feb 12
    S&P 500 closed up 175.03 points, or 7.03%, at 2,663.68, for its best day since Mar 24th when the S&P gained 9.38%
    Year to date: S&P is down 17.55%, on pace for its worst year since 2008 when the S&P lost 38.49%
    From Record: S&P is 21.51% below its intraday all-time high of 3,393.52 from Feb 19/
    Bottom 18500 few wks back*?
    Maybe sideways for awhile until more stability w covid19?
    johnN johnN in Other Investing
  • IRA Conversion to Roth -- start a new Roth?
    With the RMD waiver, it's a good year to convert some of my Rollover IRA to a Roth IRA.
    (I'm retired, older than 75)
    I already made a QCD to my church.
    I already have a Roth IRA. Are there reasons to start a new one, or should I take the easy route and just roll funds into the existing Roth account?
    My accounts are at Fidelity -- the conversion appears to be easy to do online. I'll probably still call to check whether I'm missing something.
    Thanks for advice from our knowledgeable board,
    David
    dstone42 in Other Investing
  • Dodge and Cox
    Interesting, and interesting to parse the various strands of value in a gross sense.
    I just graphed SP500 over 10-7-5-3-1y beating VOOV (SP500 value) and RSP (SP500 equal-weight), with the latter two overlaying much more than not. Both outperform RPV significantly and constantly; DODGX is only somewhat better than RPV.
    CAPE is better than everything until 4y and nearer, and then tracks SP500 plus or minus, showing, I guess, that its auto-churn thing is not value but growth cloaked as.
    Or maybe I have that backward.
    davidrmoran davidrmoran in Fund Discussions
  • Dodge and Cox
    I do sometimes wonder when there are contentious posters who rarely comment on this board and then suddenly do to insult folks if some people don't have multiple identities here. I know it's happened before.
    D&C has a number of positive traits analysts like--low fees, low turnover or trading costs, long tenured managers, carefully thought out products without an excess of launches, a lack of celebrity jerk managers from the team approach and consistency of style. All of that said, value has been a terrible place to be since the end of the 2008 crash. D&C are value managers and ones that sometimes take on more risk than they should, investing in particular in financial stocks that can suffer from leverage problems for instance. That is a value managers' bread and butter, but some competing value managers have done better with more of a quality overlay. High quality value--with less leverage and more consistent earnings--is not as cheap as "value classic," but it tends to hold up better in downturns.
    Oh, regarding the S&P 500 fund(s), it most definitely isn't a value fund. The way it works is at the beginning of a bull market it has value characteristics and at the end of one it has growth characteristics as the largest most popular stocks dominate it. What it really is is a momentum fund, and when the momentum is positive as it has been for a long time until now, the most popular stocks get an increasingly large weighting and they are invariably the growthiest names. Comparing it to D&C most definitely is wrong.
    The larger question that seems to get asked repeatedly on this board is is value investing dead? A better question I think is do you think the tech sector darlings that comprise the lion's share of growth indexes will continue to dominate the world forever or will other less popular sectors eventually make a comeback? The academics would have us believe that as the ur-factor bigger than JC in finance, it must eventually come back. But much of what constitutes financial academia is really weak science at best. There is a lot more evidence for anthropogenic climate change, and a significant portion of failed scientists/poor mathematicians and snakeoil salesmen in finance don't believe in that, yet do believe in the value factor or say they do to sell their actively managed higher cost products.
    LewisBraham in Fund Discussions
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    @MikeW. I hold CTFAX in my hybrid income sleeve as it kicks off capital gains coming from its investment activity. Plus, it pays a dividend. Check it's disbursement activity on its mutual fund site. It is a good fund to own in volatile markets. Generally, it holds more bonds than equities. But, in stock market pullbacks it loads equities. And, as the market recovers it trims equities and loads bonds. It went in this downdraft from an equity allocation of 15% and increased it to 70% towards the bottom on March 23rd. It employes a 31 day trading rule so it will be around April 24th before it begins to sell down equities should current price levels hold and/or increase and move higher.
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    The two funds I sold were held within my hybrid income sleeve. I'll be buying during the next pullback within this sleeve thus maintaing my allocation. If the pullback comes soon I'll be buying other funds after 31 days I may by back one of the ones sold. I have targeted some of this money to go into CTFAX. CTFAX positions based upon the movement of the S&P 500 Index.
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    Yes as you know I greatly appreciate your posts and you sharing your strategy. So Im assuming youre taking your equity position down a bit here with this rally. Are you creating a spif? I'm currently at about 50% equities now and dollar cost averaging back into the market. I was hoping it would break 2400 again so i could add more to equities but I think I'll get another chance with this market. I'm also evaluating a couple of bond funds
    MikeW in Other Investing
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    I'm an asset allocator. I'm working within the confines of my allocation of 15-40-45. So, yes to the question. We all have to govern as we feel best.
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    Hi guys. Pick a number for a low. Mine is 2000 for the S&P 500. With a 5 percent earnings yield equates to the Index's earnings being about $100. Currently S&P's projects earnings to be in the mid $130's thru summer. With a 5 percent earnings yield this puts the Index in the 2600 to 2700 range. As I write the Index is at 2580 range. BINGO. Sure it will move around some from here based upon the news.
    I'm doing some tax loss selling today. This will raise my cash by about 5 percent. And, I will do some select buying mostly on the income side of my portfolio in the near term.
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • Dodge and Cox
    Other than DODIX, I would not own any other D&C funds. I got burned by DODGX during the financial crisis in 2008 and vowed never to return once I got to a point where I felt comfortable selling. IMHO, they are operating on their past reputation pre-2008. I'm not surprised to see DODGX and DODFX doing worse than their respective categories during this current mess. There are plenty of better alternatives, IMHO.
    Well put and what I have been saying for years. I think maybe D&C managers are more comfortable investing in financial/banking stocks which were their biggest category and not realizing this category has been lagging the SP500 while the high tech is where you have all the value+growth.
    @davidrmoran: har, imagine saying of FAIRX, CGMFX, or even FMAGX that they were operating on their pre 08 rep
    I used to own FAIRX,OAKBX,SGENX for about 7-8 years until 2009. In these years when I own a very high % in stocks, it fit my criteria for good risk/reward funds. PV (link) I don't believe in investing based on prior reputation.
    FD1000 in Fund Discussions
  • Has anyone considered long/short or market neutral given where we are today?
    Hi @Bitzer. No worries on a hard time. I'm looking for my thoughts to be challenged :) and I appreciate all feedback. But what you said is exactly my point for possibly picking up a L/S fund now. "BTAL clobbered VTI in 2018, 2020". My crystal ball sees more downside in 2020 and maybe beyond, and that ball works 50% of the time!
    I'm not looking for a long term holding here. I've always been an advocate against these funds long term (balanced funds will always win is my motto). I'm looking for something that holds up in a recession environment better that straight equities - VTI. I mentioned above, I think bonds are risky and corporate bonds may become even more so. Gold ETFs, "paper" as described by some, may also have more risk than I appreciated and I don't need another IOFAX surprise.
    I don't plan to sell any equity funds. Probably to late for that. Just looking for diversification with possibly less risk than bonds and gold ETFs - during this upcoming recession.
    MikeM MikeM in Fund Discussions
  • Something Positive That Is Showing Green ...
    With the S&P 500 coming off of the 2200 range towards the last part of March the trend is up. Now at the 2580 range as I write! I would not be surprised to see a near term upside to 2700 range. Perhaps, even 2800.
    With a 5% earnings yield 2200 = $110 in earnings ... and, at 2800 = $140.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/05/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
    Old_Skeet in Other Investing
  • FUND reopenings
    I opened a position with ARTSX in my IRA, as I like its long and short-term performance. I'll probably add about $500 per month over the course of several months. Not in a hurry to dump a lot of money into this market for the time being.
    willmatt72 in Fund Discussions
  • DSENX - another one that was good until it wasn't
    @MikeM I guess I can rephrase that. I found the info on the fact sheet of the fund to give me what I needed to determine what the bond portfolio looked like. I then looked at the holdings of other funds and landed on the low duration fund.
    I think my issue is the fund down a little more than than the s&p or large value and there seems to be the thought of something wrong with it when Mstar shows it is more volatile.
    @Bitzer I agree with you but I am probably 50/50 or so not 90/10. I have been on the site since FundAlarm and I have gone through the list over the years and many funds are no longer around or sounded promising and just weren't. I guess just like the Spiva reports we are lucky to find any funds that consistently beat the benchmarks or at least do well on a risk adjusted basis. I started using mostly factor ETFs/Funds like DSEEX kind of is because of this.
    fundfun in Fund Discussions
  • Has anyone considered long/short or market neutral given where we are today?
    Hi @MikeM
    I'm a nope, too; with @Mark . Too many spinning wheels; and mood swings/whims of the managers must also be taken into account.
    You can build your own long/short/neutral fund.
    At times one of the choices will be "long", meaning a better return and at other periods the other choice will be "short", not performing as well. In either case, the anticipated blend return could keep you ahead and no less than "neutral", meaning "flat".
    The two choices are AGG (mixed bonds) and QQQ (large cap growth). Below is the average return of both combined, with the assumption that annually one would have to rebalance to maintain a 50/50% mix. I picked these two for the long term data available, and QQQ in particular, as I maintain that large growth will still perform better going forward in the equity world.
    YTD = -10.6% (to be determined, eh?)
    1 year = +4.8%
    3 year = +8.6%
    5 year = +8%
    10 year = +9.7%
    15 year = +8.3%
    Life = +5.6% (AGG incep. = Sept. 2003, QQQ incep = Mar. 1999)
    Compare these returns to the time periods available for the funds you noted, and then make your choice.
    Be well.
    Catch
    catch22 catch22 in Fund Discussions