Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • This Risk Free Bond Now Pays 7.12%
    I asked the Treasury if an LLC with a separate TIN could buy another $10,000 and they said yes.
    I think the key is the separate TIN. If you use your own SSN on the trust ( referenced above) I think the the Treasury will link the accounts and refuse the second purchase.
    An LLC is pretty easy to set up, although you have to register it with the secretary of state, write an organizational plan and pay a fee. Some states require annual fees of up to $500, but many do not.
    If I were going to do this, I would use it for more than just $10,000 of I bonds, or at least plan to buy $10,000 a year for a while.
  • Climate change funds
    Barron's had a short article on Climate change funds, maybe in honor of the Glasgow conference.
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/climate-policies-fund-choices-51636068332?mod=past_editions
    I have been putting small amounts into solar, wind and alternative energy ETFs mostly but a lot of them seem based only on indexes, and I think active management has a far better chance of success.
    The other push for "ESG" funds seems to be too broad to allow a focus only on the transition to a low carbon environment.
    This will concentrate on alternative energy, grid development, energy storage, nuclear power, materials like lithium, uranium, carbon capture, water infrastructure etc, not good governance, inclusiveness, or other desirable social goals that have little to do with low carbon.
    There seem to be only a few actively managed Climate Change Funds available, like GMOs' GCCHX but it has minimums far out of the reach of mere mortals. A number of hedge funds are getting involved, and have lots of information, but again unless you have $1,000,000 or more you are on your own.
    Has anyone done any significant research here?
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @stillers
    Sorry for the slow response. I have looked at several managed futures over the years, including AHLPX AQMNX AMFAX CSAAX, but not PQTAX.
    AHLPX is the clear winner with better performance ( 42% vs -3% 26% and 25% with better risk metrics than my previous choices, although PQTAX is running about equal. PTQAX has only recently caught up ( last year outperformed by 5%) by a significant outpreformance in 2021
    M* still has a "human" analysis of AHLPX
    "Man AHL (this strategy’s subadvisor) predominantly uses a systematic momentum-based approach that aims to profit from trends in prices across various markets and provide uncorrelated returns. The approach looks for trends across a two-month timeframe, on average, which is shorter than the typical peer in the managed futures Morningstar Category. That can reduce the strategy’s drawdowns in fast-moving markets relative to peers that are slower to adjust. The strategy’s responsiveness was on display during the first quarter of 2020, for instance, when markets took a sharp turn. It returned a healthy 7.8% during the quarter, outperforming the category average return by nearly 7 percentage points."
    It is hard to determine how they differ in portfolio, and I haven't delved into that much, as up-to-date data is hard to find, and they change positions frequently.
    In the past I have read that the usual reasons for these funds performance is if they guess the trend in interest rates properly.
    Both seem to be better diversifiers than TMRSX as the latter fund has not delivered much with a correlation to the SP500 of .61, while managed futures are both - 0.15
  • This time it's different ?
    Barron’s is exceptional in the latest (Nov.7) issue. Several good articles touch on this overall theme. (And I’ve posted the cover art)
    - One writer makes the distinction between “market peaks” and asset “bubbles.” He thinks what we’re witnessing qualifies as the latter (good). When a peak turns into a correction or crash, most everyone gets hit. With bubbles you can move assets out of the overpriced bubble(s) gradually and into more reasonably valued assets (ie: funds, stocks, sectors).
    - One article visits a large public Crypto Conference recently staged in NYC’s Times Square. It hones in on a 30 -something aged woman who is amassing a collection of high priced “non-fungable” tokens. These digital certificates give the owner the “exclusive rights” to things like dog photos or images of funny looking hats that are actually free to view on the internet, In other words worthless. She learned how to “invest” on U-Tube and has also taught “investing” to her mother and siblings, who are now investing in these assets.
    Enough said.
    peace
    image
  • This time it's different ?
    Howdy all,
    Mr. Hank is spot on. Excess liquidity and no suitable option to equities. Inflation is getting away and the Fed is still playing with themselves. "anything happens. my fault, your fault, nobody's fault, the boy dies."
    That said, I see no reason to panic or do anything silly. Check your allocation and rebalance as needed. Make tax moves as it's November. Maintain some cash and we'll see what happens;
    One word of caution for the older investors, you probably do NOT have sufficient time to recover from a 20% crash if you're making withdrawals. Your principal takes too much of a hit. It happened to wifey in the 2000 meltdown. She had retired 12/31/99 and had a lump sum pension and 401k. The pension went to Vanguard where it was invested very conservatively and subject to pension like withdrawals. It did not survive the dotcom meltdown. The 401 went to Price and was not subject to withdrawals and had plenty of time to recover and has done nicely TYVM.
    and so it goes,
    peace and wear the damn mask,
    rono
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    "Fifteen percent of households in the labor force without employer-sponsored pensions indicated owning an IRA in 2019."
    Congressional Research Service, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) Ownership: Data and Policy Issues, Dec 9, 2020.
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46635/3
    So for the vast majority of people without jobs offering 401(k)s or 403(b)s, the size of the IRA contribution limit makes no difference.

    A retirement plan for those without access to traditional 401k/403b plans could include an automatic enrollment provision to increase participation rates. Vanguard released a study earlier this year which indicates that participation rates tripled in 401k plans with an automatic enrollment feature.
    This can be a very useful "nudge".
    PDF
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
    "Fifteen percent of households in the labor force without employer-sponsored pensions indicated owning an IRA in 2019."
    Congressional Research Service, Individual Retirement Account (IRA) Ownership: Data and Policy Issues, Dec 9, 2020.
    https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R46635/3
    So for the vast majority of people without jobs offering 401(k)s or 403(b)s, the size of the IRA contribution limit makes no difference.
    If the concern is in encouraging the 75% of households (ibid) who do not have any IRAs to save for retirement, I might suggest better publicizing the Savers Credit and making it a refundable credit.
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-savings-contributions-savers-credit
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
    I converted my small Traditional IRA (~ $35K) to a Roth IRA in 1998.
    I've been very fortunate that the Roth IRA has increased in value considerably since 1998.
    However, the Roth by itself would not provide for a comfortable retirement.
    Thankfully, I also have access to 401k and HSA plans.
    It would be beneficial to have a retirement plan similar to the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) universally available for employees without access to traditional 401k/403b plans (often employees at smaller companies).
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
    Agreed. I think it's IRAs are joke compared to 4XX-type employer plans. Similarly, 4XX plans are a joke in that there are limits ... frankly if you make < 200K I think you should be able to tuck as much as you want away in a retirement account since if you 'have a great year' you might want to be a 'responsible saver' and tuck a larger amount away during your boom times.
  • 2022 Contribution Limits
    Roth IRA used to have $2,000 limit when it started in 1998. Many people don’t have jobs with 401K) and 403(b) plans. How can one save enough for retirement with $6,000 and 1,000 catch-up, per year?
  • This time it's different ?
    Its too soon for me to be certain its different this time. But, the global central banks have been astute and activist enough in recent years to keep investors engaged and satisfied -- garden variety stock market corrections excepted. Accommodative global fiscal policies also made important contributions to this outcome during the past couple of years. Current and projected economic conditions suggest this recent trend could continue through 2022. That said, I suspect any future stock market gains through 2022 will be more modest and will be more interrupted along the way than they have thus far been in 2021.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    Hi @Baseball_Fan,
    PVCMX and TANDX are under my radar screen as I require a $100M in assets before they hit my screens, and usually require a Fund Family Rating of 3 or higher. That said, their risk adjusted performance has been good, especially, PCVMX.
    If I recall my history correctly, one of the first "All Weather" funds conceived by Harry Browne in the 1980's was the Permanent Portfolio (PRPFX) which did well in the 1980's but lost performance as for several reasons such as the price of gold falling. Later Ray Dalio is also known for proposing an "All Weather Portfolio".
    https://wallethacks.com/ray-dalio-all-weather-portfolio/
    Here is a good description:
    "The All-Weather Portfolio is designed to thrive in exactly such tumultuous market environments. By maintaining specific mutually exclusive asset allocation – some would even call them boring – the All-Weather Portfolio doesn’t just preserve portfolio value but enables it to grow."
    I am using the term to hold low correlation assets managed in different ways including multi-asset and multi-strategy funds. My intent is to have a portfolio with low drawdown and good risk adjusted returns.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @lynnbolin2021,
    Looking forward to your next MFO article..should be interesting as always....
    Curious as to your thoughts for addition in the "all-weather" approach regarding funds such as:
    PVCMX Palm Valley Capital Fund. Invests generally in small cap value co's, high quality, strong balance sheets, strong free cash flow, profitable co's. Not afraid to hold cash in market bubbles (whatever that means anymore) Absolute return focused.
    TANDX (Castle Tandem Fund) Invests in Large cap, growing dividend payers, that are capable of growing earning regardless of economic conditions, not afraid to hold cash if need be, does not make market call to go to cash, only if can't find the appropriate value in a stock
    Trying to look forward as to what may come rather than backwards look at performance, data etc.
    Very intrigued by BLNDX/REMIX as mentioned by Prof David, have initiated starter position.
    If you would, please define your interpretation of what "all weather" means from your viewpoint.
    Is it a marketing term, maybe overused like ESG, maybe nebulous terminology or maybe not?
    Mine is of a fund that you could have significant holdings of your wealth and hold thru a 30-40% drawdown in the markets, while sleeping well and having the confidence that the fund mgmt will make the right decisions over the next few years. Also, do like funds that have a succession planning in place...no funds with the boomer aged guru with no protege learning and next in line etc.
    I also define as all weather fund as a fund that could compete when compared with a 45% SPY/55 SCHO ETF backwards look performance wise...most can't, no?
    Best to all, I enjoy your postings, makes me think...
    Baseball Fan
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @Derf - It’s in both my Traditional IRA and Roth IRA. Roughly equal amounts. Currently comprises 47% of my 33% weighting to alternatives. That works out to 15.5% of total investments.
    More than you wanted to know,. :). Thanks for asking.
    For what interest it may hold for others, at 75 I’ve gone largely to a “preservation” approach.
    In a nutshell: 30-35% Growth / 30-35% Income / 30-35% Alternatives / 2-5% Speculative
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    @hank & @lynnbolin2021 Do you hold TMSRX in a taxable account or other ?
    Thank you to both, Derf
  • PRDSX. TRP small-cap (quant) growth fund
    I own it, but have tactically been reducing its proportion in my portfolio. PRDSX. It's my smallest fund holding now. Down to 2% of total. I sense it's lost its mojo. Even though a quant fund is all about statistics and algorithms and such, and not so much about Fund Manager "savvy" and legerdemain. Is the Quant Model they're using not very effective any longer? This is the 2nd year in a row that the fund is a serious laggard vs. peers. (Well, "peers" as categorized by Morningstar.) Longer-term numbers mean much more, of course.
    ...So, when I see a couple of good up-days, I've been taking tiny bites out of it and putting it into PRSNX, a dollar-hedged TRP bond fund. I want to be growing my bonds, anyhow. And what's with the rather big estimated capital gain in 2021 for PRDSX? ($6.00/share--- if memory serves me.) I'm also thinking I could "afford" to put 6% of my portfolio into TRP Junk Fund TUHYX. Six percent. I would take that 6% from my RPSIX holding. At the moment, RPSIX = 21.95% of portfolio total, and PRSNX = 21.20% of portf. total. The other bond fund is 6.10% of total: PTIAX.
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    David, thanks for posting your research on REMIX. I compared REMIX to FMSDX, looks good...see https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?REMIX,FMSDX&n=455&O=011000
    Would love to hear Lynn Bolin's take on this fund as well. I am continuing to look for "defensive" funds that can offer decent returns, and was happy to discover REMIX here.
    TIA,
    Rick
    Hi Rick, After reading David's article, I researched REMIX. It comes close to my minimum criteria of two years of age and $100M in assets. I compared it to other funds that I track. I placed an order to allocate 5% of one of my portfolios to REMIX, and plan to buy a little more. I like its relative smooth performance. It joins CTFAX, CRAAX, FMSDX, FSRRX, and TMSRX, among others, in my attempt to build an "All Weather" portfolio.
    This portfolio is the subject of my next MFO article.
    Lynn
  • REMIX - Standpoint Multi-Asset Fund (November Commentary)
    I’m also thankful to have the write-up on REMIX. Last year I committed a hefty sum to TMSRX, thinking I’d be satisfied if it out-performed cash. What I discovered was that I was less than thrilled with performance of 0.94% YTD, given that the fund had done much better than that in 2019 and 2020. I sold at a modest profit and redeployed elsewhere. While REMIX is not completely comparable, it represents an alternative to the vast majority of my portfolio holdings which are traditional OEFs, most of which are not defensive. I’m dipping a toe in the water.
  • This time it's different ?
    A hint for what millennials are into -
  • The Largest Companies in 1929
    Interesting to see how times have changed. I wonder if people had boundless optimism about these companies back then too:
    image
    Also, here are the companies in the Dow in September of 1929:
    September 14, 1929
    Allied Chemical and Dye Corporation
    General Foods Corporation †
    Paramount Publix Corporation
    American Can Company
    General Motors Corporation
    Radio Corporation of America
    American Smelting & Refining Company
    General Railway Signal Company
    Sears Roebuck & Company
    The American Sugar Refining Company
    B.F. Goodrich Corporation
    Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey
    American Tobacco Company (B shares)
    International Harvester Company
    The Texas Company
    Atlantic Refining Company
    International Nickel Company, Ltd.
    Texas Gulf Sulphur Company
    Bethlehem Steel Corporation
    Mack Trucks, Inc.
    Union Carbide Corporation
    Chrysler Corporation
    Nash Motors Company
    United States Steel Corporation
    Curtiss-Wright Corporation †
    National Cash Register Company
    Westinghouse Electric Corporation
    General Electric Company
    North American Company
    F. W. Woolworth Company