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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • The Secret IRS Files: How The Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax
    I think this "true tax rate" is ridiculous headline generating nonsense. They take the total unrealized gain of public companies stock and then claim Buffet and Bezos, etc should have paid taxes on that number. They may be "worth" that on paper but these are unrealized gains, not money in the bank.
    Under this theory, we would all have to pay taxes on any unrealized gains, including the appreciation in your own real estate. If property values fall would the government give us a rebate?
    Buffet's income tax rate is 24/125 or 19%. I agree this is low, but so does he. Buffet has always said that the tax system is stacked in his and other millionaires favor.
    Wealth taxes have been tired and abandoned in Europe as ineffective. What we need is a simpler tax system, that makes it harder to game, and better audits and enforcement
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Junk and semi-junk munis and securitized. Yup: PTIAX.
    Muni: 40.35
    Securitized: 47.19%
    ... Yet, alas: YTD up a mere 1.18 and in the 67th %ile. Love the monthlies, though. PTIAX.
  • The Longest Day
    I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. I’ll give it a go.
    The Duke
    Kurt Jurgens
    Peter Lawford
    Rod Steiger
    Eddie Albert
    Robt Mitchum
    Richard Burton
    Paul Anka
    Red Buttons
    Tom Tryon
    Sean Connery
    Henry Fonda
    Roddy McDowall
    ......................................And that's only what I can recall off the top of my head. It's really, really good.
    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0056197/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    I am in bond funds because they offer me the best returns with the lowest risk. Their trend persistency combined with their low volatility enable me to best implement the scale up buying strategy I learned from Nicolas Darvas. My first bond trade was in junk bonds in 1991. It was January 17 one of the greatest momentum days ever in equities. That day the Dow surged some 114 points which at that time was its second best on record. As is often the case there was a lag and a few days later junk bonds went on tear and had 60 consecutive trading days without a decline. That smooth ride upward continued for the next three years until February 1994 in junk bonds as they bested the S@P over that period.
    That one LUCKY trade made a lasting impression on me and the way I have traded my capital ever since. Most especially after the tech wreck in March 2000. There have been many repeat performances and exhibitions of unreal trend persistency since 2000 in various bond fund categories. Emerging market debt in the early 2000s, junk bonds 2009-12, junk munis 2014, bank loans 2016, and last but not least the securitized category since last spring - IOFIX, BDKAX, abd SEMPX. IOFIX has had something like only 8 down days since last April 2020 when many of the veteran bond traders re entered. An amazing run over a 15 month period.
    Some remember me as a day trader in the stock index futures. Others as a trader in tech funds who also exploited the new fund effect as well as datelining. Yet less than 3% of my total trading profits have come from daytrading and only around 13% from tech funds, new funds, datelining. Meaning almost 85% of my nest egg has come from bond funds - my one true love in the financial arena. I have always said everyone needs a trading or investing niche and I found my niche in bond funds.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Current yield PRWCX is just 1%. I note (again) the HEAVY chunk of the portfolio in utilities. 14% vs. category avg. of just 3.5%. Traditionally, utilities operate like bonds, with the steady income stream. Surely, dividend-paying utilities are the place to be recently, with bonds offering so little, eh? Giroux has said recently that as these utilities continue to green-ify, they are becoming a GROWTH story, too.
  • Gohmert asks if federal agencies can change Earth's or moon's orbits to fight climate change
    One can be very conservative, or very liberal, and also be intelligent.
    When I see elected officials like this, I'm reminded of a comment made of Nixon nominee G. Harrold Carswell at his confirmation hearing: "Even if he is mediocre, there are a lot of mediocre judges and people and lawyers, and they are entitled to a little representation, aren't they?"
    http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1895379_1895421_1895542,00.html
    With officials like this, mediocre would be a big step up.
    I just watched an election debate tonight, and while it had it's fair share of canned remarks, it was a pleasure to listen to so many candidates who were knowledgeable, well spoken, and respectful of their opponents. It's not impossible.
  • Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
    @AndyJ
    I could be a little wealthier now if I'd gone into that trade more heavily back then, instead of cautiously.
    This "trend" may persist. Good for you for paying attention and for acting on it. Some trends are short lived...some longer in duration. To me, this is where 3 month charts are helpful. Trends tend to persist. When they break down...they tend make "lower-lows" over a 1-3-6 month time frame. Go luck with your investments.
    Here's an example using VIS over the last year...short lower-lows, but the trend shows longer "higher-lows". I try to look at trends this way. The red arrows are "lower Lows' and the green arrows are "higher-lows".
    45 % higher-lows over the last year.
    image
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Here’s what PRWCX manager David Geroux said recently about IG bonds as an investment:
    “What I would tell you about rates today is that the risk/reward on Treasuries or IG [investment grade] is so poor, it gets a situation where if rates stay static, you make very, very low returns. If rates revert back to more normalized levels, you lose a lot of money. And if rates go down, you don't have a lot of room for rates to go down … So, it's a really negatively skewed risk-adjusted return … As a result of that, we have a very short duration in our fixed-income portfolio, probably the shortest duration we've had since I've been running this strategy. Our duration today is 1.5 years” LINK
    Your attempts to immunize the thread from mention of PRWCX or manager David Geroux’s views on the question “Why do you still own Bond funds?” sounds to me a bit cocoonish. Why would your view, or my view, or that of anyone else here on the question supersede that of Mr. Geroux as both verbalized by him publicly and as practiced thru his management approach?
    -
    “David Geroux is a five-time nominee and two-time winner of Morningstar's Fund Manager of the Year award in the allocation category. David’s fund has also won 15 "Best Fund" awards 2 from Lipper. “
    Okay hank, I am not attempting to "immunize the thread" from mentioning PRWCX. I am simply stating that PRWCX is not a Bond Fund, it is an allocation fund, in which equities are the focused investment, and bonds are more in the "ballast" category, as a complement to equities. I have been in many thread debates, in which PRWCX investors, do not think PRWCX should even be classified as an "allocation fund", but rather it should be classified as a value oriented equity fund. Giroux has a history of being a value oriented investor, who will decrease equities when he thinks they are overvalued, and use the bond component (or cash) as a way of holding assets, that can be used to buy equities when they are fairly valued. There are many investors who invest in that manner, but the question is what "bond fund" are they going to use as a ballast fund for their equities, or will they just pick their favorite allocation fund, and let that manager choose bonds as they desire. Other investors, are more focused bond fund investors, who will use selected "bond funds" for total return and ballast. When they look to "bond funds", it makes sense to look at those "bond fund" managers, who excel in performance for those bond funds, to meet bond fund objectives, that fit the roles investors using those "bond funds". What I have learned about your posts on PRWCX, is that Giroux is a great "allocation fund" manager, who believes that Investment Grade Bond oefs and treasuries are out of favor for his allocation fund, and the other types of bonds (not specifically identified for this thread) are short duration bond holdings. I choose to emphasize what great bond fund managers, (like Ivascyn, Gundlach, etc.) are doing with their investments, but other posters/lurkers will likely find value in other ways on this "bond fund" thread.
  • Gohmert asks if federal agencies can change Earth's or moon's orbits to fight climate change
    On the lighter side (in a shake your head sort of way)....perhaps this idea has SPAC potential:
    Moving Heaven and Earth to Save the Planet
    Of course this idea never got off the ground:
    Flipping Islands For Fun and Profit
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    “Infinity Q Capital Management says it plans to return approximately $500 million to investors who were unable to get their money back after the investment firm halted redemptions on a then-$1.7 billion mutual fund earlier this year. It remains unclear how much investors will eventually recoup from the Infinity Q Diversified Alpha Fund. The fund currently has around $1.3 billion on hand—well below where it was last valued in February—and it will keep $750 million in reserve …
    “(The) firm unexpectedly halted redemptions in February and said it couldn’t value its holdings. The move stunned market participants, some of whom viewed their investments in the fund as a hedge to their broader portfolios. Infinity held wide-ranging bets across stock, currency and derivatives markets, including over-the-counter positions … Infinity appeared to have misvalued its large derivatives portfolio. Some of the valuations it disclosed were too high and, in one instance, mathematically impossible.”

    From WSJ June 9, 2021
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/infinity-q-capital-management-plans-to-return-500-million-to-mutual-fund-investors-11623181417
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    @dtconroe,
    Here’s what PRWCX manager David Geroux said recently about IG bonds as an investment:
    “What I would tell you about rates today is that the risk/reward on Treasuries or IG [investment grade] is so poor, it gets a situation where if rates stay static, you make very, very low returns. If rates revert back to more normalized levels, you lose a lot of money. And if rates go down, you don't have a lot of room for rates to go down … So, it's a really negatively skewed risk-adjusted return … As a result of that, we have a very short duration in our fixed-income portfolio, probably the shortest duration we've had since I've been running this strategy. Our duration today is 1.5 years” LINK
    Your attempts to immunize the thread from mention of PRWCX or manager David Geroux’s views on the question “Why do you still own Bond funds?” sounds to me a bit cocoonish. Why would your view, or my view, or that of anyone else here on the question supersede that of Mr. Geroux as both verbalized by him publicly and as practiced thru his management approach?
    -
    “David Geroux is a five-time nominee and two-time winner of Morningstar's Fund Manager of the Year award in the allocation category. David’s fund has also won 15 "Best Fund" awards 2 from Lipper. LINK
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    Compare whatever you have vs a benchmark (VBIAX or your desired VYM/VCIT allocation). Many times a 10-30 fund portfolio will under perform over 5 year rolling periods. Choose your key metrics. That, in turn, may provide guidance how to think about this question.
  • The Secret IRS Files: How The Wealthiest Avoid Income Tax
    Too much for me to digest tonight. But I trust ProPublica. On YouTube, I've run into a guy who runs a business geared for the ultra-wealthy. He helps them strategize about how to hide money from the tax man. It can get extreme. He mentions that there are countries around the world that SELL citizenship, for a donation into a "National Fund." Alternatively, you could buy and hold real estate for at least 5 years. Then, after 5 years, you could apply for citizenship there. (Until then, you're granted a 5-year "golden visa," residency permit.) St. Lucia. Vanuatu. Dominica. Granada. Trinidad & Tobago. Serbia. Montenegro. Portugal. Ireland. (Got that one covered.) Even Egypt.
    This guy recently RENOUNCED his US citizenship. THAT will take care of the higher US tax in a big way..... He chose St. Lucia.
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    7 mutual funds. And just since yesterday, ONE single stock. I don't use buckets, but I do my best to cover large, small, foreign, domestic. Stocks. Bonds. (Currently: 40 stocks, 56 bonds. And 4 cash.)
  • Inflation Is Real Enough to Take Seriously
    China seems to think so.
    As far as the list of “Assets for Protection Against Inflation”, proceed at your own risk. One might consider that there are shaper minds in the world than Ms, Peters who have already identified the potential and bid these assets up. Wish investing were as simple as opening a book and looking up “What to Buy” for any occasion that might present itself. Not to say these ideas won’t work - just that the game’s not as easy as it sounds nor the playing field as level as one might assume.
    How about Katelyn Peters? Is she under any obligation not to invest in these areas first? Is she forbidden from sharing her list with her closest friends or family members before releasing it to the public?
    #5 - S&P 500? Really? What a unique idea!
    #10 - TIPS? In theory only. There’s been numerous articles in recent months attesting to their being wildly overbought. Some discussion here as well.
  • Pin Selection & Security
    LOL - Wonder if 54321 would be better?
    The “Speed of Light” would be cool. But how to express that in 4 digits?
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    @Mark,
    A CIT is a Collective Investment Trust.
    CITs may be available via some defined contribution plans [401(k), 457(b), etc.].
    They are similar to mutual funds but have less reporting requirements and are not governed by the SEC.
    CITs usually have lower expense ratios than corresponding mutual funds.
    For example, I own MIEIX (0.70% er) in my 401(k).
    When my 401(k) plan replaces MIEIX with a CIT "clone" on 07/01, it will have a 0.58% er.

    Link
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    Thinking about the original question, I've tried to take a step back and reformulate the question a bit: what is a bond, and why would one own a bond (or in the aggregate a bond fund)?
    From a business finance perspective, a bond is a way to raise cash without selling part of a company. Funds are characterized as bond funds if they hold these financial instruments; not if they behave like traditional bonds. This is an important distinction because it affects what we mean when we talk about bond funds.
    From an investor perspective, a traditional IG bond is a way to get a better return than in a bank. In exchange, one takes on a modest amount of risk, some of which can be diversified away in a fund. IG bonds preserve nominal principal, though inflation gradually reduces their value over time.
    One diverges (slightly) from this traditional perspective of bonds as pure income streams when one starts trading bonds in an attempt to increase total return. This began in the 70s, largely with Bill Gross and total return funds. These funds take on a measure of equity characteristics, especially as they add junk bonds. At this point, ISTM one is at the edge of crossing over from "bonds" to "allocation" funds, in behavior albeit not in name.
    Moving on, multisector bond funds behave significantly like allocation funds. But because they're still bond funds from a finance perspective, people can feel good about eating their vegetables - investing in "bonds" while getting better returns.
    Here's Portfolio Visualizer's correlation matrix of a "pure bond" (albeit leveraged) multisector fund PDIIX, a multisector fund with a 13% equity kicker RPSIX, and a rougly 40/60 allocation fund (disregarding cash) FTANX. The five year time frame I selected is the period covered by PDIIX's current management team including Ivascyn.
    They're all pretty well correlated. Further, annualized standard deviations are quite close together, ranging from 5.62% to 5.84%. In terms of risk and performance these multisector funds feel like hybrid funds.
    I do own a multisector fund (none of the funds here), but I expect it to behave like a hybrid fund. It's just another way for me to get that risk/reward profile.
    To the extent that I use IG bond funds, they're there to serve as the last bastion before dipping into equities should stocks swoon for several years. On the short end, I use short/ultrashort funds as backup to pure cash - a bit more return in exchange not drawing upon them monthly in case of hiccups.
    I've no bond funds for a traditional, widows and orphans, monthly pension type cash flow.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    “PRWCX was a very conservative balanced fund years ago … Giroux has produced stellar total return, but it does not fit very well into a "bond" thread…”
    I was merely responding to this sentence from FD-100 (same thread): “PRWCX performance since 2000 shows that it made more money than the SP500 with lower volatility.”
    Of course PRWCX’s not a bond fund. I do like stepping on sacred cows now and than (like PRWCX) - even though I own the fund myself. As far as bonds, Giroux in the last year has described them a very poor investment which he avoids - except for a few of the high-yield and convertible types. (Perhaps that qualifies him for inclusion in this thread?)
    As far as risk, Giroux asserts in his most recent fund report that he thinks he can preserve investors’ principal over a 3-year time horizon. That, I think, remains to be proven. Yes - a more aggressive fund today. Exposure to tech and large caps has hurt his performance recently. However - I wouldn’t bet against this guy.
  • How many different mutual funds do you own?
    5 in my long-long term account that I rarely touch (several AFs)
    3 in my more actively-managed account (PRWCX, MGGIX, PRILX)
    1 as the only holding in my 403(b) (RWMGX)
    The vast majority of the OEF holdings are in equity. (There's FI in PRWCX, and I hold a modest 30+ year position in FKTIX.)