As others have mentioned, the damage in bondland makes it difficult in terms of any repositioning. One example from the people at Dodge & Cox: Their DODLX (Global Bond Fund) has dropped 12% over the past year. Their supposedly more aggressive DODBX (Balanced Fund) has fallen only 8% over the same period. And their even more aggressive DODGX (Stock Fund) is down only 7.4% over that time. Go figure. Normally, in a falling equity market one might consider moving from fixed income into equities. But not here. The world turned upside down.

@orage, you are correct and I have corrected ma earlier post.
@yogibb, I believe this year’s challenge with both stocks and bonds are related to Fed’s quantitive tightening in addition to aggressive rate hikes. The only previous attempt by the Fed was in late 2018 that coincided with an ugly 20% stock market sell-off. And we are far from taming the high inflation.
Others also point to the Fed’s action leading to the situation today.
https://axios.com/2022/09/22/fed-quantitative-tightening-markets
For now I continue to buy treasuries and hold them to maturity.
YTD from Vanguard funds, 9/23/22:
Total bond index, -13.7%
Intermediate term corporate bond index, -15.7%
Short duration bonds sustained less damage:
Short term inflation protection bond, -3.2%
Short term bond index, -6.5%
Foreign bonds:
Total international bond index, -12.2%
Pimco emerging market bond, -19.5%
Pimco emerging market local currency bond, -11.6%
Equities are all down:
S&P 500, -21.6%
Developed market index, -26.4%
Emerging market index, -21.9%

I am surprised the market is not down more, but I think that has to do with earnings only just now starting to drop. A lot of this may be due to the strong job market ( with millions of people still not wanting to work because of covid, disability etc) and the overhang of the large stimulus checks sent out in 2020 and 2021.
I worry that the inflation we are seeing is mainly due to drought, supple chain disruptions and the War, none of which will respond to the Fed, until unemployment hits 5 or 6% or more and we are in a severe recession with crash in earnings.
While the financial system is in much better shape to withstand this than in 2007 back then there was a Fed available solution as they guaranteed everybody except Lehman, and we started out of it relatively quickly ( after dropping 45%)
Maybe if there had not been that third of fourth stimulus pumped into the economy or if they had started raising rates earlier inflation would have started down now, reassuring everybody.
If you believe all of the above, long term treasuries or very highly rated corporate bonds are the place to be, I think.
I think you have to be worried that it will take five years for stocks to recover.

Interesting (but ad filled) article addressing the issue (please ignore ads) The Capitalist
For: “Everyone is telling you not to buy and the news is extremely negative. The media is known to exaggerate issues and cause negative emotions like fear, rage, and hopelessness.”
Against: “Japan also crashed in 1991 and did not recover to this day.”
Here’s an Investopedia article mentioning Warren Buffett and Sir John Templeton’s takes on the issue of contrarian investing: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/financial-theory/08/contrarian-investing.asp
Not intended as investment advice. Posted simply to stimulate thought … Any indicators (technical or otherwise) as to the “right” amount of bloodletting needed to make equities appealing to you again?

@Sven, FOMC meets 8x/year: odd-numbered months, plus June and December.
Jan, Jul: 4th Tues/Weds
Mar, Sep: 3rd Tues/Weds
May, Nov: 1st Tues/Weds
Jun, Dec: 2nd Tues/Weds
Edit: Info above, while it might be typical, is not correct, as 2023 meetings Jan31-Feb1 and Oct31-Nov1 and 2021 meeting Apr27-28 violate what I had noted some time ago. www.federalreserve.gov only indicates 8 scheduled meetings per year, about every 6 weeks, and possibility of additional unscheduled meetings. My apologies.

This has been a very difficult environment for the bond market. It is being called a bond crash and one has to go back to 1931 or 1949 to find similar times for bonds (see image link below from Twitter Link1). While equities are also suffering, there is nothing historic about this typical run-of-the-mill equity bear market (so far). https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdbXoeMWQAEXAeh?format=png&name=small
What is indeed unusual is that both stock and bond drawdowns are now happening simultaneously and this is seen in hybrid portfolios (see image link below from Twitter Link2).
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdbYT--WAAEJYUb?format=png&name=small
But this is not the time to panic. It is the time to rationally analyze what you hold (OEFs, ETFs, CEFs), assess portfolio risks and your own risk tolerance, make appropriate portfolio adjustments and trade/invest wisely.

Hi sir Mr @Catch22 /Dr Moran
Generally statement likely
Start investing keep buying since 2007 did not back down and did not know what was buying keep buying mutual funds vanguard total market and vangard 2040... Total return 5.7% annually since, 9.5% returns annually before crash
Think saw sp500 chart returns of 12% annually right before recent carnage from 2010 -2021
Sp500 Price and P/E maybe good now
Current Sp500 P:E ratio records low 17 18 past 20 yrs, and it is so hard to get ratio lower (dotcom crash and housing 2008 crash ratio was larger 22 or 26) w these current market conditions.
https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart
Have lots patience with long term investing, maybe good entry prices imho, but you are right may get 20% lowered in 6 9 months. long terms could be very good to slowly buy more every few months and don't empty your barrell now if have dry powder.
You maybe screwed now but in March 2024 you maybe laughing your ways to the banks ( or near break even points lol) .. Wifey says too late to sale now so we are staying the courses.
It's extremely difficult to invest without emotions and see recent carnage and losses.
Maybe don't even open acct or look at daily basis, turn off MSNBC market news and Bloomberg.
Go play w wifey kiddos family every weekend w free time
Don't open vanguard acct until winter 2024 lol

@carew388, during 2008 the Fed was cutting rates aggressively, but Fed is hiking rates instead. Think the YTD 13% loss of VWINX will worsen by year end. Remember, we still two rounds of rate hike this year.
Investment grade bond index Is down 15.7% YTD. Until it turns around, bonds are struggling this year, except for treasuries (not treasury funds/ETFs).

>> Friend say 10 trading days from now look very bad but 10 yrs from appears extremely rosy
Safe to say often in general

While it provides a good read for two key parts of the economy, it also serves as reliable indicator of what may be coming down the road. FedEx's earnings contracted in a similar way during the last three recessions — in 2020, 2009, and 2001, according to analysts at Barclays.

That could be a serious problem. Higher fuel cost must contributed to increased operation cost. Shipping demand should be falling when people are returning to office.

I chat with our regular UPS driver who told me during the worst of Covid how many new hires the company had authorized. I think it was between 100 and 200K. I asked him if their union had a two-tier wage system similar to the UAW, but he assured me these were full-time positions, and all would be union members. I hope these drivers are still working. FedEx drivers are not organized, so I expect their employment prospects may be very dim about now. FWIIW, when I have a choice, I direct my business to unionized employees. Chewy uses FedEx, exclusively.

@johnN

Friend say 10 trading days from now look very bad but 10 yrs from appears extremely rosy

That's one helluva forecast.
What's he/she smok'in these days???
I can't back any of that forecast, because when I bought my magic 8 ball years ago, it had only a 30 year forecast calendar; and that ran out of time last week. I'm screwed, investing wise/related.
ADD: that doesn't read properly.......screwed meaning; only relative to using an 8 ball for investing.

Expect recession ceased ~mid oct2023 - feb2024
Inflation halt -slows late March 2023- spring 2023, feds may overshoot by next spring if severe crashes and unemployment rolled over clift
Housing + regress stagnation-slow down 3-9 months
Stocks bottom consolidation processes next few months (1-4 months) likely
Like ...said before market bottom 1/3 to 1/2 through recession but we don't know we are in recessions until 7 9 months later.
We are probably in one recession now
Spy chart past 12 months show severe low Rsi, Stochastic Oscillation at low points, Macd histogram near crosses over points (near oversold conditions).... Prob good entry if you are willing to wait few months. For long term maybe very good entry points also. Another friend bought 3millions $ spy last Fri expect bounces to sp500 3900s 4000s next few wks
Friend say 10 trading days from now look very bad but 10 yrs from appears extremely rosy
We may get many bumps next few months lots pundits say sp500 may go 3100-3450

Evidently, a section of retail investors are protecting themselves well (far greater than at anytime before), notwithstanding the buy the dip behavior from others -
https://twitter.com/jasongoepfert/status/1573656248842698757/photo/1
This may also explain the high equity allocation (ICI), even though we are down 20+% YTD.

@Observant1 and everyone:
Odd Lots:
https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots-podcast

yes, i've seen rattner on there before. cards close to his vest. my own portfolio pain is due to an overweight in equities. somebody please point me in the direction of the light at the end of the tunnel. until then, i'll enjoy watching my stuff grow. serrano peppers, okra.

@hank,
I wouldn't say my judgement was better...
Our opinions regarding these two guests just differed.
The segment with Steve Rattner, chairman and CEO of Willett Advisors, was also interesting.
He believes that the biggest investment risk is rising interest rates.
Mr. Rattner thinks we will have a recession but doesn't know how much of this is priced in the markets.
Willett Advisors' current equity allocation is the lowest ever in the firm's 12 or 13 years of existence.
He was somewhat more constructive on commodities and energy but remains cautious overall.

This was my first time listening to Tracy Alloway.
I was impressed with her thoughtful insights.
Kristina Hooper was just ok.

LOL - I had the opposite reaction. Thought Alloway (Bloomberg Media) came off as dominating the discussion and professing to know more than she does. Hooper (Invesco) was more laid back. More mature IMHO. Hooper feels that unless your investment horizon is measured in just months, some equities ought to be held. But I confess to being partial to Invesco. Both ladies were interesting to listen to. And, I’ll defer to your better judgment on the matter @Observant1 :)
A pretty good show all around. The other guests including Summers were enlightening. The guy from Willmont Willett manages Michael Bloomberg’s personal wealth. Remarked more than once that his firm has the lowest allocation to equities it’s ever held. But he would not / did not give any percentage. Left us to guess.

jumping the gun. don't hate me. hooper and alloway were fun to listen to. alloway sounds very sharp.