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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Roth conversion
    I used 2021 B premiums.
    Here is link to 2022 data
    https://www.cms.gov/newsroom/fact-sheets/2022-medicare-parts-b-premiums-and-deductibles2022-medicare-part-d-income-related-monthly-adjustment
    2022 basic B is $170/mo First step up at same AGI is now $68/mo
    @msf
    Thanks for the link re QLAC
    While it is old (2015) and uses the RMD date of 70 1/2 and an anticipated return of 8% yearly, it is still probably correct that you have to live a long while past 85 to come out ahead.
    I am not sure MaxiFI would model this for you, but it might. The calculations are not difficult. What you want to know other than how long you will live is the expected return ( or lack thereof) on your IRA assets required to beat the QLAC. I doubt tax rates will go down any.
  • The Mutual Fund That Ate Wall Street -- Based on an Index Few People Know About
    This is a WSJ report which may require a subscription to read.
    "Everyone knows the New York Stock Exchange. And its rival, Nasdaq.
    But there is a mutual fund that invests in stocks based on a relatively unknown market index that has grown so large it might be considered a third stock market unto itself.
    That fund is the $1.3 trillion (yes, trillion, including all share classes) Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSAX) and its exchange-traded-fund shares. The fund, from Vanguard Group, now accounts for 10% of all assets in U.S. stock mutual funds and ETFs in the market, according to Morningstar Inc. No other mutual fund or ETF comes close to it in asset size. The next largest is an $821 billion Vanguard S&P 500 index fund.
    The paradox is that this biggest beast among funds is tied to the most unassuming of stock indexes—the CRSP U.S. Total Market Index, developed at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business."
    Journal Report
  • Roth conversion
    Most Medicare Part B participants pay a premium that covers 25% of the actual cost of the coverage. (The government picks up the rest, using general tax revenue.) In 2021, that 25% comes to $148.50/mo, or $1782/year.
    If one's MAGI¹ (AGI from line 7 of form 1040 plus tax-exempt interest from line 2a) is above $88K (single or married filing separately) or $176K (married filing jointly), then one's share of the actual Part B cost increases.
    If one's MAGI is just over this threshold, then instead of paying 25% of the cost of Part B, one will pay 35%. That's a 40% increase (35%/25% = 1.4x). So in 2021, the first level of IRMAA comes to 40% x $148.50 = $59.40/mo, or $712.80/year.
    https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs
    There are also higher brackets, where one pays 50% of the actual part B cost (IRMAA = 100% of Part B premium), 65% of Part B cost (IRMAA = 160% of premium), 80% of part B cost (IRMAA = 220% of premium), or 85% of part B cost (240% of premium). No matter what one's income level, the government is still picking up some of the tab.
    https://secure.ssa.gov/poms.nsf/lnx/0601101031
    In 2022, the first threshold is at $91K ($182 married filing jointly), and IRMAA is $68/mo. All the thresholds for 2021 and 2022 along with the total (part B premium plus IRMAA) amounts are on the Medicare.gov site given above.
    ¹MAGI is calculated using the last income tax return filed. For 2022 IRMAA, that is the income tax form for 2020, filed as recently as just two months ago, including extensions. Your Jan 2022 IRMAA can't be based on 2021 income since you haven't reported it yet.
  • Roth conversion
    The info on brackets I have are ( MFJ vs Single)
    zero IRMAA under $176,000 $88,000
    $59 /mo/person $176,000 to $222,000 $88,000 to $111,000
    $148.50/mo/person $222,000 to $276,000 $111,000 to $138,000
    There is a great $4 book ( Amazon) with all the data you need
    James McGlynn Retirement Planning Tips for Baby Boomers
  • Roth conversion
    What's up ? From above post, ''
    It is important to remember that the IRMAA surcharges go from zero dollars ( B Medicare Premium $1776 /year in 2021) to $700 for ONE DOLLAR of income ( AGI before the standard deduction) above $176,000 for a couple and $111,000 single. A couple would therefore pay $1400 extra."
    $176,000 for a couple = $88,000 for a single MWOT
    OR
    $111000 for a single = $222.000 for a couple MWOT
  • Fighting Inflation Without Getting Carried Away
    Mark’s article (WSJ) is in Apple News subscription, $10/month that includes “selected” articles from WSJ, Barron’s, and Washington Post.
    Jason Zweig’s article discussed that many investment vehicles failed to fight inflation consistently over the last several decades. What worked in the past do not work as well today since other new vehicles are available today, including Bitcoin.
  • Jet Bear Airways Flight 1121 to Forlorn USA
    Great piece of humorous financial commentary from this week’s Barron’s - whether you agree with the writer’s assessment or not. I’ve tried in vain to track down the source from which Barron’s is quoting this. If you can obtain the complete essay you’re in for some additional entertainment.
    Couple brief excerpts:
    “Ladies and Gentlemen: Welcome to Jet Bear Airways, flight 1121 with nonstop service to Forlorn, USA….Our captain has informed us today's flight could be rather choppy due to economic headwinds, popping bubbles, delusional government spending, and a zero interest-rate policy that stayed too long at the party, leaving an intoxicated Reddit wolf pack eyeing a crypto-trading hamster while mingling with the cats and dogs around the open bar …..
    “In preparation, turn off your electronic devices and please bring your body to an upright, numbed position. Flight time is unknown, starting at a maximum altitude of approximately SPX 4743 before heading downward from this dizzying peak while anticipating several excruciating troughs before we begin our final descent into Forlorn. After reaching cruising altitude, we will serve giant stock grants and loan-forgiveness programs to all executive class fliers …”

    Attribution:
    From: Barron’s December 7, 2021
    Title: “What a Long, Strange Trip”
    Author: William Gibson
    Original Source: Gibson’s Technical Strategist - Nov. 30
  • Anybody holding DUST?
    @Derf - The hoops is a reference to Fido requiring you to acknowledge (by clicking an accept icon) that you have read and understand the warning and that you feel experienced enough to proceed with the purchase.
    Next bet? Nothing looks attractive, No major changes except continuing a near month-long 4-5% bet on TAIL (which requires you to acknowledge a warning at Fido). It’s not enough to overcome gains if the market continues upward, but serves as a “brake” in sharply declining markets, limiting losses. Rose .81% yesterday. The effect of holding a small amount is similar to driving forward while riding the brake a bit.
    PS - The other kind of hoops. :) Been on the losing end of a few lately. Taking a breather.
  • Roth conversion
    I feel that longevity insurance is one of the few useful products that the financial industry has created in the past several years. That said, if it's not a product that you are interested in independent of tax considerations, then buying a QLAC is a poor way to reduce RMDs.
    Kitces, Why A QLAC In An IRA Is A Terrible Way To Defer The Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) Obligation
    https://www.kitces.com/blog/why-a-qlac-in-an-ira-is-a-terrible-way-to-defer-the-required-minimum-distribution-rmd-obligation/
    Getting back to timing of conversions ... Though recharacterizations (undo's) of conversions are no longer allowed, there are a couple of other tactics that provide some or much of the same effect.
    One is to use a recharacterization that is still permitted. A contribution as opposed to a conversion can still be recharacterized. So if you contributed $6000 to a Roth IRA in 2021 but in doing your taxes you discover that you'd have been better off taking the deduction, you can recharacterize the $6K as a contribution to a traditional IRA. (You can also do the opposite: contribute to a T-IRA and then recharacterize it to a Roth.)
    https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/retirement-plans-faqs-regarding-iras#Recharacterization of IRA Contributions
    Another it to take advantage of the 60 day rollover rule (sometimes limited to one per year). One could withdraw money from a T-IRA near the end of the year, and then early the next year when the tax situation is clearer (and within 60 days of the withdrawal) either put the money back into the T-IRA (60 day rollover), put the money into a Roth (indirect rollover conversion), or split the money between a T-IRA and a Roth.
    If any money goes back into a T-IRA, you can't do this again for another 365 calendar days. The restriction is according to days, not fiscal years.
  • Building a Portfolio - Charles Lynn Bolin
    I'll second the thanks for @lynnbolin2021. Love the analytical style and explanation of his work process.
  • Building a Portfolio - Charles Lynn Bolin
    I found the post by Bolin “Building a Multi Strategy Portfolio” very instructive. https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2021/12/building-a-multi-strategy-portfolio-fidelity-traditional-ira/
    It was so detailed and included his criteria for including certain funds. That post is so rich with info. I keep re-reading it and really appreciate the outline of his process to create the portfolio. The use of MFO to create the watchlist and Ferguson and Reamer … new to me. While this portfolio is just one of his- the “Fidelity Traditional IRA”… I found myself wondering about one sentence he mentioned “ a Bucket for a more aggressive Roth IRA managed by Fidelity” … What funds might be in that Roth?
    Posting this just to say thanks but also to recognize how valuable it is to see someone’s portfolio and most importantly how it was constructed for the intended purpose. Agree with @golub1 comment.
  • Fighting Inflation Without Getting Carried Away
    If I set aside comparative performance of my bonds--- all in funds--- and look at raw dollar figures, the monthlies will be a big help in the new year. We incurred a big (for us) one-time expense, buying furniture. Zero interest for 12 months. I've resisted taking the divs. in order to keep them growing. But it's time. Basically, if we control our spending, we are at least mitigating the inflation "out there" in the stores. And it's nice to have connections, too: for $25, we can get an entire, HUGE, Ahi for cooking, for poke ("po-kay") and sashimi. My wife knows how to make the best of a fish with a knife!
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellowfin_tuna
  • Roth conversion
    @ Hank
    Does it matters what you convert, if you can always buy or sell anything in either account tax free?
    Once you have the capital in a Roth, I agree it should be probably devoted to more risky, long term investments.
    Converting before you are on Medicare and after are two different calculations.
    It is important to remember that the IRMAA surcharges go from zero dollars ( B Medicare Premium $1776 /year in 2021) to $700 for ONE DOLLAR of income ( AGI before the standard deduction) above $176,000 for a couple and $111,000 single. A couple would therefore pay $1400 extra.
    IRMAA is based on two years before 1040, so 2022 will look at 2020 AGI. Once you file 2021 taxes in 2022 you can ask for redo, if your 2021 income is lower. It takes a month or so, so you will end up paying more for a few months.
    One strategy I am considering is to do a large conversion, all in one year, before I take SS at 70. Then the impact of the conversion on the IRMAA will be limited to one year.
    Other things to consider. IRS lets you put up to $135,000 in a QLAC which will reduce you RMD proportionally.
    Lawrence Kotlikoff from BU has a great article in Barrons
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/most-retirement-planning-is-wrong-laurence-kotlikoff-51631207476
    He also runs a web site with a neat financial planning program for $100, Maxifi. It may be overkill for a lot of folks, but it will allow you to run all sorts of projections and scenarios about Roth conversions pretty easily
  • Schwab needs to "re authorize" Quicken access
    The 12/3 support steps are nonsense in my experience. They do not work. I have sent information specifically to Quicken reps about the issues, at their request, but they have not fixed anything yet and there are worse stories than mine on their boards ( Some people report getting thousands of duplicate transactions that take hours to delete)
    The CEOs letter has the key problem
    "On top of that, our Customer Care capacity had been planned based on our earlier, largely incident-free, migrations. As a result, we were not adequately staffed to handle the contacts, and Care wait times were far higher than usual."
    It makes you wonder if they flub this, how well are they handling security?
  • Just for the Dippers !
    Before the pandemic, the US car sales were around 17+ million/yr. The post-pendemic sales rebound peaked in April 2021 at 18+ million/yr (annualized) and are now at 12+ million/yr (annualized). That gives an idea of the severe disruption caused by semi chips shortages. This despite the fact that some carmakers are continuing to produce cars sans chips/controllers and parking those incomplete cars in their own or rented parking lots.
    This current problem is not related to the shift to the EVs.
    https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/usa-auto-industry-total-sales-figures/
  • Just for the Dippers !
    Thanks for the note from my Barron's summary this AM. People know where to find it.
    "COMMODITIES. The auto market (new or used cars) is very tight. But PALLADIUM (-26% YTD) and PLATINUM (-14% YTD) are down sharply because of the drop in auto production caused by SEMI CHIPS shortages. This is unusual as most commodities are strong (S&P GSCI commodity index +28% YTD). Palladium is used more widely in the catalytic converters of gasoline-powered cars while platinum is used more in diesel-powered cars; although either metal can be used, there are large capex costs for the switch for the manufacturers. Rebound in palladium may be dramatic when the auto production picks up as chips supply-chain issues ease. On the other hand, platinum demand has fallen sharply for investments and also for other industrial application, so there is now a platinum surplus. Platinum is also much cheaper than gold (it used to be the reverse years ago)."
  • Just for the Dippers !
    But PALLADIUM (-26% YTD) and PLATINUM (-14% YTD) are down sharply because of the drop in auto production caused by SEMI CHIPS shortages.
  • Roth conversion
    The question can be split into two parts:
    1. Best time during a given year
    2. Best year
    1. In theory, the best time within a year to convert is when your T-IRA portfolio is at its nadir. Which is great if you can see into the future.
    Pragmatically, waiting until there's a market correction (10% dip or more) can leave you converting at a higher value than converting now. If the market rises 15% while you're waiting and then drops 10% (to 103.5% of your starting value), what's the point? Or if you're planning on converting a bit each year, you can easily wind up stuck at the end of the year with a higher market still waiting for that correction.
    If you're trying to keep MAGI under a certain "cliff" threshold (e.g. for ACA subsidies or to avoid IRMAA) then you should likely be conservative and top off your conversion near year end once you have a better handle on MAGI YTD. If your concern is about edging into another tax bracket, it's not a big deal if you wind up a few dollars over or under, so don't wait until year end for that reason.
    2. If you're converting and paying taxes with non-IRA money, sooner can be better than later even if your expected tax rates in the future will be a little higher. That's because you're effectively adding money to your IRA by prepaying your taxes. (A dollar in a Roth is worth more than a dollar in a T-IRA.)
    OTOH, many states give tax breaks for retirement income (including Roth conversions) once one reaches a certain age. So it can be advantageous to wait until then. You might convert between the time you reach that age and the time you retire and actually start drawing money from your T-IRA and/or pension (and possibly using up that tax break).
    Several states give some sort of help on Medicare Part D prescriptions, where your income needs to be low enough to qualify. Doing Roth conversions earlier (even at somewhat higher tax rates) may help qualify for these or other income-related programs.
    The largest such program is EPIC in NYS. Its income cutoff is decidedly middle class: $75K single, $100K married.
    The rule of thumb short answer is the sooner the better (both within year and across years); just don't do too much in a single year and keep various income thresholds in mind. And if you're thinking of making charitable contributions, keep some money in the T-IRA so you have it available for QCDs.
  • Roth conversion
    Gentlemen, I really appreciate for your inputs. Last spring was a great opportunity to do a large conversion. Unfortunately many of us did not plan for it. Now we are evaluating which how much and which funds to convert per year. Great reminder that the tax table is for the adjusted gross income.
    To reduce tax in retirement, we did few small changes. We switched our 401(K) to Roth 401(K) several years ago. Still we have rollover and traditional IRAs to consider for higher future tax and RMD. Higher retirement income incurs additional cost on Medicare premium and taxation on most of the social security benefit.