@johnN, while Stockcharts shows RSI(14) for $UST2Y, etc, it isn't really important. You are locking in yield at purchase to maturity, and for ST (up to 5 yrs), you can just hold on to maturity. See a nearby thread on $UST1Y at 4%.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FcxuvmNXEAEa_3t?format=jpg&name=medium

Especially sir ust 2 yr 5 yr 10 yr IMHO so expensive rsi severely high
Maybe wrong end of trade if keep buying them
Maybe good buy small portions dca spy iwm and wait 12 36 months

"Heard on the news today that 30 year fixed mortgages are now over 6%, Not that long ago they were 3-4%. That has to hit the housing market like a sledge hammer."
@hank- At this point in time, I agree with you regarding the damage to the housing market. But what I'm having trouble with is the fact that back in the 70s, at least in SF, 30-year mortgage rates were typically in the 8% range, or even a little over. I remember, because we had an 8.5% mortgage for our first home, and that was with an excellent credit rating.
And yet the real estate market, at least here in SF, wasn't in any particular trouble. Lots of people were buying and selling homes in that environment. Also, unlike today, there was no great shortage of "affordable" housing in the SF Bay Area, because there was still land available for new building in nearby areas.
I really have no idea, but it seems to me that there must have been other factors involved in the general financial situation then, compared to now. I'd be very curious to know a bit more about all of that.

@Baseball_Fan Most of the evidence I've seen is that the increase in SNAP payments has been a response to not a cause of food inflation. People are having trouble making ends meet. Show me definitive evidence otherwise. There is corruption on every level of society, but trotting out the old welfare queen stereotype--"are able bodied, of sound mind, lazy bums looking for a handout"-- from Reagan's 1980s seems a little cliche, does it not? I would say the corruption at the highest levels of wealth and power exceeds the corruption on the lowest levels in an order of magnitude.
Meanwhile, the mythology revolving around tax rates--I've heard that old "more loopholes back then" argument before--also rings false. There have been plenty of loopholes since tax rates of all sorts on the wealthy started plummeting in the 1980s. The effective tax rate for many wealthy individuals and giant corporations with loopholes in the U.S. has been far lower than the top tax rate for a long time. As the tax code has grown increasingly complex with each year, why would there be more loopholes in the past than the present time? Show me evidence.
Stating the fact that price gouging exists in business is a sign that someone "doesn't understand basic economics" seems to emerge from someone who doesn't understand basic economics. In every industry there are price takers where markets are highly competitive and price makers where markets are more monopolistic and not as competitive. Price makers often gouge their customers. Witness the gouging on the life-saving allergy medicine EpiPen, which when Mylan acquired its production rights jacked up its price from $100 per dose to $600 a dose: https://beasleyallen.com/article/pfizer-to-pay-345-million-for-epipen-price-gouging-scandal/. Why? Because they could. As the exclusive maker of the drug, they were a price maker with a monopoly. Now witness what the U.S. oil industry is doing today. The breakeven cost of oil production in the U.S. today is $56 a barrel: https://rigzone.com/news/what_oil_price_do_cos_need_to_profitably_drill_in_usa-25-mar-2022-168396-article/ Yet they're currently charging $85 a barrel. Why? Because they can. With the supply from Russia cut off, U.S. oil companies can now be price makers instead of takers. So they are gouging. It's the reason why their stocks are so high.

Thankyou sir - Mr Hank [indeed maybe master at technicals analysis/macro-economic themes, and trading strategies]. I started trading last yr so very new to this field/still very inexperience compared to one whom may have traded ++ 20 30 yrs plus. Before just buy and hold couch potatoes/ learnt so much last year /continued learning today. Thankyou for the informative insights.
the 95B coming off balance sheets probably monthly priced by WALSTREET TRADERS, and Mr Hank exactly right probably not priced in yet [rather maybe monthly priced in actions due to diminished monies supplies]
What point do you think the inflictions will end? Many institutional traders keep saying when you have a few days 95% stock gain sp500/nasdaq /small caps/techs despite horrible news and occurred after capitulation, market breadth indicator upswings, then maybe near market bottom formation. We have those references near first wk of June, and we have not seen those pivot points recently.
Its indeed a bear market out there, so many resistance broke off today/bears are having a good day. Could be double bottoms 2008-09 all over again. Recent SPY chart maybe showing - head and -shoulder pictures [ too early to tell]
thankyou for any suggestions

Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...Baseball Fan

@Baseball_Fan - I’m trying to cut through your rambling macro analysis. Would you please address some of the following questions? Best Wishes
“Curious … Do you think the technicals … ”
What technicals? Not everyone uses technical analysis. Please identify which “technicals” you watch and base your investment decisions on? I’ve tried to help out by listing a few common technical indicators below:
- Moving Averages
- Moving Average Convergence and Divergence
- Relative Strength Indicator (RSI)
- Bollinger Bands
- Volume
- Exponential Moving Average
- Money Flow Index
“ … would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets”
Over what period of time? Do you have a source verifying this will be completed within a definite time period? It took over a decade for the Federal Reserve to amass their bond holdings, beginning with the near depression that threatened the economy between 2007 and 2009.
“and the impact on stonks” (sic?)
Not all stocks are the same. Financials? Commodities? Growth? Domestic or foreign? Also omitted here is any reference to time frame. Do you mean by the end or 2022 or are your concerns related to further out (5-10 years)?
“rate hikes”
Why would you consider rate hikes to be bad for equities? Financials tend to do very well when longer term rates rise. It is true that the most speculative areas tend to suffer as the cost of borrowing increases. (However, many are already down 50-70% this year.) But it’s not as cut & dry as you would have us believe. Rates have been extremely low for many years now. Bound to rise some day. Yet you and many others have over that time invested in equities for the long term - even knowing rates would someday rise. What changed?
“the impact of policy errors”
That’s a sweeping assertion based it seems on conjecture. Please explain why that risk is higher now than in March 2020 (the covid related financial crisis) or March 2009 (the beginning of the last bull market). Policy errors can occur at any point in time. So can other negative factors like war, political chaos, natural disaster. As investors in companies we’re accustomed to accepting those risks.
“inflation continuing on and on … “
Says who? Do you have some psychic in mind who can forecast inflation years out?
“(Will) the fed pivot any time soon … ?”
What particular “pivot” are you referencing? After you explain that, please explain why an equity investor should base long term decisions on this ill defined hypothetical concept.
“inflation still running so hot”
That’s redundant as you referenced it above. Here you seem to prophesy inflation will remain “so hot” ? … There’s no definitive way I know of to confirm / predict the level of inflation 1, 2 or 3 years out. Shall we base our long term equity investment decisions on such speculation?
“even hotter in reality than what the gov’t says it is …”
Isn’t this something folks have long ragged about on this forum and elsewhere? There’s been numerous threads over the years examining the various inflation measures (there are several). So, you’re entitled to your prejudice on that point. But why do you find the discrepancy between your own numbers and what the Federal Bureau of Statistics determines to be of greater importance today than it was 3 years ago or 10 years ago?
“that 4% 1 year TBill looks puffy good to me right now”
Good. Glad you find TBills a good investment for your needs. Bear in mind that’s for just 1 year. Equity investors by nature are investing for much longer periods. Contemplate that if you harvest your 4% TBill a year from now, you might find that stocks in general have appreciated more than 4%. I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think they might. (Some I own move 4% in a single day.) In such case, you will have lost ground and possibly face buying in to equities than at a net loss. If inflation is running as “hot” as you think, why are you comfortable with just 4%?

@LewisBraham,
Geez man chill...I can see I need to more clearly articulate my viewpoint...
For the record, I have no issue with and 100% support Food Stamps or helping out the less fortunate or those who caught a bad break...all in on that. No where did I state that Food Stamps is the main reason for inflation, only that the Grifter's increasing the program by 25% did contribute to food inflation. It did.
What I am completely against are able bodied, of sound mind, lazy bums looking for a handout. I'm against folks driving their late model SUV to the food bank. Ya F that. Who knows maybe Biden can transfer some of those IRS agents to look into welfare fraud too...oh you say that it not reality? BS, I've heard folks talking about how to game the welfare system..."oh, go ahead, they dont check..."
The corporate gouging comment is right out of the Liz Warrent Kool Aid talking point manifest...someone who actually believes this either has never run any kind of business or doesn't understand basic economics.
The comments about how Orange Man bailed out the rich....you also mean to include bailed out the stonk market so the pension plans wouldn't go bankrupt too correct? (For the record, I wouldn't have bailed out the markets, let it do what it needs to do). You never mentioned how the Grifter in the White House has spent what 3X with his policies compared to Orange. And wanted to spend even more...oy vey!
Fact is The Grifter's energy policy/rhetoric was driving inflation higher BEFORE the Russian invasion...the increase in Food Stamps increased the price of food for everyone include the recipients of the aid.
Let's get to the charts...Please riddle me this...while I believe those tax rates are accurate, I submit that NO ONE, or very few actually paid anywhere close to those rates as there were more loopholes back then is the way I understand it...what did folks actually pay, NOT what were the tax rates...
The second chart, I consider this a no duh...the USA had their factories virtually untouched after WW2...the rates should go down to stimulate the economy, compete on an ever increasing competitive global economy with many other countries companies being subsidized.
So again, the main point I was trying to make/ask was/is that policy can drive inflation and overcome rate hikes.
Take care,
Baseball Fan

In the -$95 billion/mo QT (full level starting mid-September), -$60 billion/mo in Treasuries can just roll-off, but -$35 billion/mo in MBS may not be from roll-off alone, so the Fed may actually have to sell MBS. The mortgage rates are already above 6%. This may not be priced in as there isn't much history or experience with QT (Fed doesn't claim that it knows).
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-mortgages-mortgage-rates-90d3b63fe4dd8b81d6765375d403cb8e

Hi Sir Baseball fans
Think everything maybe priced in... Mr Market know 95b QT restrictions for several wks now since Uncle Powell spoke few months ago before Jackson Hole. IMHO Feds maybe slow down first then maybe pivot in 4 6 months next spring but maybe not right away... Lots pundits screaming deflationary actions soon (least we see lots supplies at major retail chains causing them slash prices, woods timber took big hits, over supplies oil also large 20s% haircuts, less demands for silver copper/commodities because of recession/expect severe global economic slow down next yr, and China economy continued shut down from c19 (perhaps late fall winter too) .. Lots economists expert expect inflation may slow down in the near future then stay above 4% until late 2023.... Think next cpi forcast is expect lowered than 8.1%
I think slv copper charts look very good (? Bottom consolidation) but we don't know if prices could be slashed further down in 4 6 wks
Cathy Woods/ Musk screaming deflationary soon but who really knows
Friends say feds may pivot sp500 slashed below 3500 and inflation cooled off

@johnN,
Curious...do you think the technicals would indicate something like $95B coming off the CBs balance sheets and the impact on stonks, rate hikes and the impact of policy errors contributing to inflation continuning on and on....why do many think the fed will pivot anytime soon with inflation still running so hot (and even hotter in reality than what the gov't says it is)....that 4% 1year Tbill looks purdy good to me right now...
Best,
Baseball Fan

@larryB, individual TIPS held to maturity (at brokerages or Treasury Direct) should follow the CPI ($$CPI) less the premium/discount at purchase. TIPS mutual funds have many other drivers; in the chart, ST STIP and VTIP are almost indistinguishable; IT/LT TIP is the worst.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=VTIP&compare=STIP,$$CPI,TIP&id=p23210538339

Yesterday market after hr verything slightly pass critical 50d ma
Let see if support hold end of day
Lots big whales retail investors betting sp500 finish near 3950-4000 w puts calls quadruple witching day.... If no support below 3900 we may test June lower lows soon
Sp500 near 3900 critical keys levels
Equities appears cheaper again w this cycles rsi very low/very attractive prices, oil maybe screaming buys too... How low can we go though. UUP-USD, Ust2 yr ust5 yr ust 10 yr so expensive now.
I added little more RIVN SOXL XLF SLV SP500 But very little yesterday
Cryptos slight mixed morning hrs, not sure equities follow w market openings /rally later
Big whales institutions holding record cash now maybe short squeezes rally follow soon??
Lots hedgy managers /money managers saying Feds and QT/Demand destruction/ overshoot-deflation/Feds may pivot (slow down ease down gas paddles) soon in ?12 16 wks. Maybe 1% this time w another 0.25% hike next month then iddle in few months by Xmas.
Who knows things may get better in 9 12 months?!!
Ray Dalio Says Stocks Could Fall 20%. Here's What the Charts Say.
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/ray-dalio-says-stocks-could-fall-20-heres-what-the-charts-say?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

Siemens. Green hydrogen.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/15/green-hydrogen-siemens-commissions-german-production-plant.html

:)
I was moved by all this to reread the June 18 feature piece in Barron’s in which they recommend investing in any of 5 money managers they covered. All were down 30-40% back than. About where they are today. Blackrock & TRP headed their list of favorites. Just interesting to mull. No need to do anything while the bricks fall. Certainly cash has outshined most other investments this year.
Last few lines of Pete Seeger’s “Turn! Turn! Turn!” might apply to investing.
To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time for every purpose, under Heaven
A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time to love, a time to hate
A time for peace, I swear it's not too late

Yields........a chart view
This is not a performance chart, but a percentage of change chart in yield. I've peeked at this periodically for a number of years......for the chart perspective.
The chart is set for YTD. You may double click the 178 box below the chart, enter a different number of days and ENTER key; OR right click the box and choose from the menu.
The yield on any date will be shown with "hovering" the cursor on top of a selected chart line.
Pillow time.
Catch

SELL: STIP. short TIPS. -1.56% YTD. Not only failing to fight inflation but failing to keep pace with my grandson’s piggy bank which is even YTD. 3.9% 1 year CD’s or a CD ladder seem better to me than losing on the safe side of my portfolio. I just don’t see TIPS etf turning around soon. I will miss the ridiculously high monthly income but losing is losing.

@hank- Absolutely not... I thought that I was very clear on that: just hold them until this whole thing turns around. There's nothing intrinsically "wrong" with either of them.

Thanks @Old_Joe. Point taken. Generally, paying less attention to the ups and down of a holding is a good idea. However, if I owned something that had shed 43% of its value in fewer than 9 months I’d find it hard to “forget” about it. That leaves just 57% of the original pot. It would take, by my math, a 75% increase from there just to get back to even.
I hope I did not suggest there’s anything intrinsically wrong with TRP. I’m not informed enough or smart enough to know whether that’s the case. It’s a dog-eat-dog business they are in. Lots of top-notch competitors. To the extent investors have grown more fee conscious / fee averse over the years (owing in great measure to superb informative forums like Mutual Fund Observer), older higher fee management firms may well be at a disadvantage against some of their lower cost competitors.

I replaced AB with SCHW (free Stockcharts display limit is 5 tickers) but kept 1 yr (any other timeframe later defaults to 1 yr).
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=SCHW&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p54544772817

ETFs IYG, IAI don't have much exposure to fund-stocks. Here are 5 fund-stocks AB, BEN, BLK, IVZ, TROW and TROW is not doing well in this group.
https://stockcharts.com/h-perf/ui?s=AB&compare=BEN,BLK,IVZ,TROW&id=p36589705458

"TROW is off 43% YTD. That’s about 3X what the Dow has lost (15%). More than double the decline in the S&P (18%) and down substantially more than the NASDAQ (26%)."
Take a look at Schwab. Makes TROW look not so bad. I really doubt that in the long run either TROW or SCHW are big-time losers. In a market like this one nothing makes much sense... just hold on and watch until it's over and the screen credits are rolling.