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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Tsp performance
    The TSP is what it is. I might, however, point to the L income performance. While most elderly retirees have lost about 15% in most commercial target retirement income funds, retirees in L income have only lost 6%. The G has crept up a bit but doesn't seem to have the superior returns to many commercial vehicles that it once had. (Maybe it was always a myth; I don't know.) The equity funds are what they are - broad indexes. They probably mimic any other commercial offering for the same index fund. Truth be told, when income funds are down 15%, equity dominant funds being down more, even twice as much, isn't a stretch of my imagination. One might admit, however, that, when the G fund is available for ballast, it is a good thing. Many, like myself, are hoping that the recent changes that open the TSP to a commercial window don't drive up expenses for everyone and don't trash the plan entirely. Right now, it is reportedly non-functional. I haven't been able to fix my beneficiary after my husband's death. I don't think; who knows? Nothing is guaranteed updated or accurate. I am worried that RMDs won't come off in December as designed. With the disfunction, the only indicator might be whether you received the check or deposit. It is a mess, a royal, stupid, unnecessary mess with no real end in sight.
  • Bank of England Will Buy UK Government Bonds in Bid to Calm Markets
    U.K. Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget was ill-received.
    Consequently, the pound sterling fell sharply to a 37-year low against the US dollar.
    The Bank of England was concerned the situation threatened the financial health
    of Britain's largest insurance companies and pension funds.
    Apparently, some pension funds almost ran out of cash after facing margin calls on various derivatives.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    For now I'm still holding all my CDs for about 1 year or less. Schwab has a Morgan/Chase 4.25 due Jan 2024, for instance.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Buying my first small CD via Fido. AMEX 3 yr CD at 4.4%, non-callable.
    Never owned a CD before. Would hope to really dive in at higher rates (over 5%) in these next few months.
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    9/28/22
    Bond/Treasury ^MOVE 158.99, up on a historic day when the BOE intervened with QE to support the UK bonds and pound (a dramatic reversal to the QT announced just past Friday).
    SP500 ^VIX 30.18, down but high
    SP500 ^SKEW 120.38, flat and OK
  • Bank of England Will Buy UK Government Bonds in Bid to Calm Markets
    The news broke around 5-6 AM this morning. U.S. markets were down slightly, but quickly turned around. I nearly added to a pm miner in pre-market when it was depressed. But before I could, it began rising. :)
    GDX Mining index has been running +5-6% all day long.
    The early bird …
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Guys...what happens if we have a dead decade ahead of us in the markets (Reference Druckenmiller's recent commentary)...who says the CBs/Fed will come to the rescue again with the brrrrrr money printer...I really don't think that is going to happen.
    Why take the drawdown in an environment like this? I get it, really tough (impossible) to time the markets, ya might get lucky but likely not repeatable...I could see staying in during more "normal" times but this is some real wacko jacko markets we done got here, no?
    I think we are due for a bounce within the next couple weeks, too many Puts have been bought....but....I think many are sanguine, hearing maybe down another 10-15% then markets should turn up as the fed again starts easing....and The Gundlach thinks we are going to overshoot to the downside next year...from the 9% (really more like 14-15%) to mayb even -3, -4%.....and if he is right, I don;t see any way how markets rally...
    Hey, like they say, it;s your money. do what you need to do to feel sexy, don't listen to clowns on a chat board especially not me.
    Best,
    Baseball Fan
    You make a case for owning something that pays dividends/interest. Most folks it seems need income from their portfolio.
  • Vanguard Primecap Core Fund
    VPCCX has been closed to most new investors for a while.
    Vanguard Flagship/PAS customers can open new accounts in VPCCX without any purchase limitations.
    Vanguard Flagship customers can open new Primecap (VPMCX) or Capital Opportunity (VHCOX)
    accounts and invest up to $25K per fund account per year.
    Vanguard PAS customers can open new Primecap (VPMCX) accounts and invest up to $25K
    per fund account per year; they can open new Capital Opportunity accounts without any purchase limitations.
  • Lord Abbett Durable Growth Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/898031/000093041322001695/c104545_497.htm
    LORD ABBETT SECURITIES TRUST
    Lord Abbett Durable Growth Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated September 27, 2022 to the
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information of the Fund,
    each dated March 1, 2022, as supplemented
    Liquidation of the Fund
    On September 27, 2022, the Board of Trustees of Lord Abbett Securities Trust approved, subject to shareholder approval, a plan of liquidation (the “Plan”) pursuant to which the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved (the “Liquidation”).
    It is currently contemplated that holders of shares of the Fund as of September 30, 2022 (the “Record Date”) will be asked to approve the Liquidation at a special meeting of shareholders to be held on or about October 25, 2022. If the Liquidation is approved, it is currently anticipated that the Liquidation and dissolution of the Fund will be completed on or around October 28, 2022 (the “Liquidation Date”). Any Fund shares outstanding on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed on the Liquidation Date. The proceeds of any such redemption will be equal to the net asset value (“NAV”) of such shares after dividend distributions required to eliminate any Fund-level taxes are made, the Fund’s expenses and liabilities have been paid or otherwise provided for as directed by the Plan, and the Fund has distributed to its shareholders of record the remaining proceeds in one or more liquidating distributions on the Liquidation Date as set forth in the Plan.
    At any time before the Liquidation Date, shareholders may redeem their Fund shares at the NAV of such shares pursuant to the procedures set forth under “Purchases and Redemptions” in the prospectus.
    In connection with the Liquidation of the Fund, the Fund no longer will accept purchase orders or exchange requests as of September 30, 2022.
    Please retain this document for your future reference.
    The foregoing is not a solicitation of any proxy. For more information regarding the Fund, or to receive a free copy of materials filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), please visit Lord Abbett’s website at www.lordabbett.com/documentsandliterature. Free copies of these materials can also be found on the SEC’s website at http://www.sec.gov. Please read the proxy statement carefully when it becomes available in the coming weeks because it will contain important information. Officers and employees of Lord, Abbett & Co. LLC may be deemed to be participants in any future solicitation of the Fund’s shareholders in connection with the forthcoming meeting of shareholders. Shareholders may obtain information regarding the names, affiliations, and interests of these individuals in the Fund’s proxy statement when it becomes available.
  • Vanguard Primecap Core Fund
    The rules are different for each fund. I believe that when Core was closed previously, Flagship customers were allowed to invest an unlimited amount, unlike the other Primecaps.
    From the prospectus:
    The Fund is closed to new accounts for investors not enrolled in Vanguard Flagship Services® or Vanguard Personal Advisor Services®. Clients of these services may open new Fund accounts, without purchase limitations, in individual, joint, and/or personal trust registrations
    The $25K limit applies to existing investors who are not Flagship customers.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    9/27/22
    SPY -0.26%, BND -0.44%, LQD -1.50%, VBINX -0.23%
    So, the problem with VWINX -0.78% was its corporates.
    Nonetheless, VWINX had the largest decline among the hybrid funds (MA, CA, multi-asset) on my watchlist, and FPURX -0.14% the smallest decline. Go figure!
  • Bond Volatility MOVE
    9/27/22
    Bond/Treasuries ^MOVE 158.12 (high)
    SP500 ^VIX 32.60 (high)
    SP500 ^SKEW 120.39 (not high)
  • Why 2022 Has Been Such a Terrible Year for Bond Funds
    Folks (not just @hank), when you quote something, or even just state a figure, please give the source. The quote above seems to have come from here:
    https://lplresearch.com/2022/05/24/how-do-bonds-perform-during-and-after-equity-bear-markets/
    I gave figures for 10 year Treasuries. One can't get higher grade than that. Though both longer and shorter term Treasuries are included as well in aggregate figures.
    Below is the data table in the quoted piece. For many reasons (enumerated below) I discount it. The conclusion given may or may not be correct, but it is not well stated and the arithmetic is suspect.
    image
    Issues:
    1. "Falling" market, as hank described it, is different from "equity bear markets", which is in the text. However, the data itself covers "Bear (And Near Bear) Markets". This fuzzy definition doubles the number of data points (increasing the number of rows from 6 to 11).
    For bear markets and corrections, see p. 4 here:
    https://www.yardeni.com/pub/sp500corrbeartables.pdf
    2. It uses a fairly short time frame (Yogi and I provided data over twice as many years).
    3. The "average" values in the chart are unweighted. A "bear-ish" market of one month 2/19/20 to 3/23/20 counts as much as a "bear-ish" market of 2½ years 3/24/2000 to 10/9/2002. Arguably weighting is incorporated by using cumulative returns (i.e. total return over each bear-ish market), but that just fixes (weights) the numerator without adjusting the denominator for the mean.
    4. The medians are dubious. With 11 rows, the (unweighted) median should be the 6th highest (or 6th lowest) figure in each column. That's what is presented for the first column (1.8). But in the other columns, the median isn't a value in the column, let alone the middle one.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    And how about the even more conservative( about 29% equity) VTINX which is off -15.77% YTD as of yesterday. Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund is my benchmark and I am happy to say I am beating it handily.
  • 2022 YTD Damage
    Bonds were so weak today, 9/26/22, that several allocation funds lost MORE than SP500. Here are several familiar ones:
    Moderate-allocation BALFX, DODBX, FBALX, FPURX, VBINX, VGSTX, VSMGX, VWELX
    Conservative-allocation TRRIX, VTINX, VSCGX, VWINX
    Multi-asset FMSDX, VPGDX
    Key are benchmarks SPY -0.99%, BND -1.28%, LQD -1.74%, VBINX -1.16% (Bond/Treasury volatility MOVE jumped up +11.9%)
    Same thing Tuesday again:
    VWINX: -.78%
    VFINX -.21%
    I’m thinking those conservative investors in VWINX might be fleeing in droves. Didn’t expect or sign-up for double-diget losses (off -14.36% YTD)
  • Why 2022 Has Been Such a Terrible Year for Bond Funds
    Thanks @msf for that comparison. I was thinking of the highest grade bonds (government agency or government backed) when I alluded to bonds holding up well when stocks are falling. Should have so stated. And, my intent was to reference equity bear markets similar to what we are experiencing. (Should have so stated) Looking at it that way produces a different result.
    “(Bonds) have historically performed well during equity bear markets, as measured by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index (Agg), returning over 6% on average. Of the three primary sub-components of the Agg, U.S. Treasuries bonds performed the best (+8.4% on average), living up to their safe haven profile, while corporate bonds, which introduce credit risk, have performed the worst (+2.6% on average)”
    Source
  • Fears of sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines
    Seismologists detect spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, amid three simultaneous leaks
    A current report from The Guardian

    image
    Following are excerpts from the report, severely edited for brevity:
    Gas is pouring into the Baltic Sea from three separate leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines amid claims by seismologists in Sweden and Denmark of two sharp spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, and speculation about sabotage.
    A seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm, near where the leaks occurred, twice recorded spikes on Monday, the day on which the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines underwent dramatic falls in pressure, the German geological research centre GFZ said.
    A Danish military flight over the leaks brought back striking images from the ruptures, including one showing an area of bubbling gas a kilometre wide on the sea’s surface.
    The seismograph recorded near-silence until just after midnight GMT (2am local time), when there was a spike representing a tremor in the earth followed by a continuous hissing wave form. The pattern was repeated at 5pm GMT.
    Amid the speculation over sabotage, suspicion immediately turned to potential culprits – with fingers pointed at Russia, whose pipelines were hit, suggesting a further weaponisation of energy supplies to Europe in the midst of the conflict in Ukraine. Not least it was seen as a possible message about the vulnerability of other marine gas infrastructure.
    “There are some indications that it is deliberate damage. You have to ask: Who would profit?” one European security source told Reuters. The Danish prime minister said sabotage could not be excluded. Poland’s foreign minister was more forthright, suggesting that the damage could be an act of provocation on behalf of the Kremlin.
    Meanwhile the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called the news “very concerning” and said that “no option can be ruled out right now”, including sabotage.
    The steel pipe itself has a wall of 4.1 cm (1.6 inches) and is coated with steel-reinforced concrete up to 11cm thick. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tonnes, which goes to 24-25 tonnes after the concrete is applied.
    British sources said they believed it may not be possible to determine what occurred with certainty.
    One UK insider speculated that any explosions were unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow Baltic waters. Sections of the pipelines are between 80 metres and 110 metres deep.
    The day of drama began when the Danish energy agency said it had found the leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline north-east of the island of Bornholm, and a third in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Swedish waters south-east of the island. “This is not a small crack. It’s a really big hole,” the energy agency said.
    Underlining the significance of the event, Javier Blas, an energy and commodities commentator for Bloomberg, described the undersea gas pipelines in the region as one of Europe’s most important strategic assets. “The subsea pipelines linking the North Sea gas fields, and then Norway with the rest of the continent and the UK are among the most strategic assets right now for Europe. High time for maximum protection. Cyber-attacks against energy assets are, too, a key risk for Europe,” Blas tweeted.
    A five-mile exclusion zone for shipping has been set up around Bornholm, and flights below 1,000 metres have been banned in the area. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, partially dissolves in water, is not toxic and creates no hazard when inhaled in limited quantities.
    “Breakage of gas pipelines is extremely rare”, Danish authorities said in a statement. “Therefore we see reason to raise the preparedness level as a result of the incidents we have seen over the past 24 hours.”
    Nord Stream AG, the pipeline operator, had on Monday morning reported an unexpected overnight drop of pressure from 105 to 7 bar in Nord Stream 2, which is filled with gas but was cancelled by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    A further drop of pressure was reported on Monday afternoon in Nord Stream 1, which Russia shut down indefinitely at the start of September, initially saying it needed repairs.
    Since no gas has flowed through either of the pipelines since the start of the month, German authorities have been quick to reassure people that the leaks will not affect its plan to fill gas storage tanks in time for winter.
    Environmental NGOs said the leaks were likely to cause large-scale damage to the environment. “As soon as methane in gas form raises from the surface of the sea into the atmosphere, it will massively contribute to the greenhouse effect,” said Sascha Müller-Kraenner of the pressure group Environmental Action Germany.
    Note: This report was previously posted in the ongoing "What is a 'Blood in the Streets' Moment?" thread. It's being posted here for those who may not be following that particular thread.
  • What is a “Blood in the Streets” Moment?
    Fears of sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines
    Seismologists detect spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, amid three simultaneous leaks
    image
    A current report from The Guardian

    Following are excerpts from the report, severely edited for brevity:
    Gas is pouring into the Baltic Sea from three separate leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines amid claims by seismologists in Sweden and Denmark of two sharp spikes in undersea activity, possibly indicating explosions, and speculation about sabotage.
    A seismograph on the Danish island of Bornholm, near where the leaks occurred, twice recorded spikes on Monday, the day on which the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines underwent dramatic falls in pressure, the German geological research centre GFZ said.
    A Danish military flight over the leaks brought back striking images from the ruptures, including one showing an area of bubbling gas a kilometre wide on the sea’s surface.
    The seismograph recorded near-silence until just after midnight GMT (2am local time), when there was a spike representing a tremor in the earth followed by a continuous hissing wave form. The pattern was repeated at 5pm GMT.
    Amid the speculation over sabotage, suspicion immediately turned to potential culprits – with fingers pointed at Russia, whose pipelines were hit, suggesting a further weaponisation of energy supplies to Europe in the midst of the conflict in Ukraine. Not least it was seen as a possible message about the vulnerability of other marine gas infrastructure.
    “There are some indications that it is deliberate damage. You have to ask: Who would profit?” one European security source told Reuters. The Danish prime minister said sabotage could not be excluded. Poland’s foreign minister was more forthright, suggesting that the damage could be an act of provocation on behalf of the Kremlin.
    Meanwhile the Kremlin spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, called the news “very concerning” and said that “no option can be ruled out right now”, including sabotage.
    The steel pipe itself has a wall of 4.1 cm (1.6 inches) and is coated with steel-reinforced concrete up to 11cm thick. Each section of the pipe weighs 11 tonnes, which goes to 24-25 tonnes after the concrete is applied.
    British sources said they believed it may not be possible to determine what occurred with certainty.
    One UK insider speculated that any explosions were unlikely to have been caused by a submarine or underwater vehicle, because their presence would have been detected in the relatively shallow Baltic waters. Sections of the pipelines are between 80 metres and 110 metres deep.
    The day of drama began when the Danish energy agency said it had found the leaks on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline north-east of the island of Bornholm, and a third in the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Swedish waters south-east of the island. “This is not a small crack. It’s a really big hole,” the energy agency said.
    Underlining the significance of the event, Javier Blas, an energy and commodities commentator for Bloomberg, described the undersea gas pipelines in the region as one of Europe’s most important strategic assets. “The subsea pipelines linking the North Sea gas fields, and then Norway with the rest of the continent and the UK are among the most strategic assets right now for Europe. High time for maximum protection. Cyber-attacks against energy assets are, too, a key risk for Europe,” Blas tweeted.
    A five-mile exclusion zone for shipping has been set up around Bornholm, and flights below 1,000 metres have been banned in the area. Methane, the primary component of natural gas, partially dissolves in water, is not toxic and creates no hazard when inhaled in limited quantities.
    “Breakage of gas pipelines is extremely rare”, Danish authorities said in a statement. “Therefore we see reason to raise the preparedness level as a result of the incidents we have seen over the past 24 hours.”
    Nord Stream AG, the pipeline operator, had on Monday morning reported an unexpected overnight drop of pressure from 105 to 7 bar in Nord Stream 2, which is filled with gas but was cancelled by Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
    A further drop of pressure was reported on Monday afternoon in Nord Stream 1, which Russia shut down indefinitely at the start of September, initially saying it needed repairs.
    Since no gas has flowed through either of the pipelines since the start of the month, German authorities have been quick to reassure people that the leaks will not affect its plan to fill gas storage tanks in time for winter.
    Environmental NGOs said the leaks were likely to cause large-scale damage to the environment. “As soon as methane in gas form raises from the surface of the sea into the atmosphere, it will massively contribute to the greenhouse effect,” said Sascha Müller-Kraenner of the pressure group Environmental Action Germany.
    Note: I'm also going to post this as a new topic for those who may not be following this particular thread.