First New Episode of 2025:
Part 1 was broadcast on December

The Year in Charts (01/17/25)
The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
00:00 Intro
00:29 Topics
01:58 The Straw That Broke the Fed's Back
15:38 Where the New Jobs Are
22:10 Living in the Outlier
34:23 What Will the Deficit Be in a Year?
43:14 Are Bonds Still a Good Diversifier?
54:26 Winter Reading
56:27 NFL Playoff Predictions
58:57 Rising Real Wages and Spike in Small Business Optimism
Video
Blog

ark rakes in ~$50M/yr in fees of which ~$30m goes to wood.
wood is worth ~$300m, mostly derived from ark.
her most noteworthy accomplishment is to only have a token part of her net worth actually invested in ark funds.

Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.

I don't see pipelines being a problem anytime soon, trend notwithstanding .. especially those with an emphasis on natgas. I hold large multidecade quantities already in a few names.
I sold my Canadian pipelines earlier this week on tariff concerns, but would love to buy 'em back sometime.

Here's link to webinar material: 2024 Year-End Review

Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

That fund and related holdings have had a nice run over the last 4 years. Quite the chart. I've got to think the trend is your friend absent a black swan event which would crater demand for energy from those sources.

Resting 500s starter position in AMLP filled this afternoon. Happy to add more as appropriate.

Thanks, @WABAC. 3 is more than I was expecting but that is what M* says. He has 50% or more in 3-5 yr range. He has more than 30% or more below BB and about 43% in AA. I mention the credit rating only for edification and not to worry about anything.
Of course, everyone in media is either talking their book, marketing, or entertaining themselves.

Took some extra cash and put it in FLOT after reading about it on here. Not much more than MM but as I tell my kids. It's just a couple clicks. I finally got my daughter to move money from a bank to VG MM after telling her the interest rate difference was ~$2/month compared to ~$80/month. Rates matter.

I've got that t-shirt :)

May be do us a favor and post how PRWCX positioned its bond sleeve.
On a separate but related note, Nomura is expecting 10 yr to hit 6% in 2025. Gloomy Bloomy says that is similar to TRP’ forecast, without saying what TRP’s forecast is.

PRWCX is rated BB with a duration of 3.09. Corporate is ~50%, gov is ~38%, and the rest is cash. He has been on the shorter side for quite a while. And I note that he is not buying anything securitized.
I'm not making any predictions where bonds are going. I don't think anyone knows.
Jason Zweig says that the predictions are all about marketing: How You Can See Through Wall Street's Ritual of Wrong.

Two summary prospectuses filings as of today:
Hedged Equity ETF
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177325000059/c497k.htm
Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1795351/000174177325000060/c497k.htm

May be do us a favor and post how PRWCX positioned its bond sleeve.
On a separate but related note, Nomura is expecting 10 yr to hit 6% in 2025. Gloomy Bloomy says that is similar to TRP’s forecast, without saying what TRP’s forecast is.
Edit: Not buying CUSIP 3134HA3J0 mentioned yesterday.

A quick search of their site does not show these ETFs are out yet.
I am interested in the Hedge Equity ETF so I can move PHEFX out of my IRA.
Edit: The draft prospectus is dated Jan 17, 2025

i'd like to buy it in my taxable account, too, altho it does seem a bit more volatile than PRWCX, regardless of hedging ability. will keep waiting.

I’m in a one-year subscription. Was advised by many here it’s free at various sites. Color me dumb. There are periods, like the past 3 or 4 weeks, when I use M* 10-25 times in a day. More than most I’d guess. I use the performance numbers in inverse manner - looking for things with potential that haven’t appreciated a lot in recent years. Then try and determine whether that’s systematic or merely related to short-term macro forces. The holdings charts are good. I don’t like a lot of lower rated bonds and find their bond representations of great help.
The one thing that comes with a subscription is the lengthy (but heavily redundant) written “Analysis”. Somewhat useful, although I’ve determined it’s too trendy. When LCORX (one instance) falls from “gold” all the way down to “neutral” inside of a year’s time, to me that reflects problems with their rating methodology and not the fund. While they occasionally rate individual stocks, coverage of CEFs is lacking.
I’m getting my $$ worth based on the number of hits. No decision whether to continue. And the technical shutdowns (often on weekends) are a big concern. When you need data, it ought to be available. As I’ve said before, the portfolio trackers available at app stores for a couple bucks a month are vastly superior to anything web-based I’ve seen. Learning the new ropes, however, can be frustrating.
PS - Before I subscribed to M* I used a Lipper site. But I began getting blocked, as the site required a subscription to worthless MarketWatch. Even took out an online subscription to Reuters News thinking free Lipper access would come along. It didn’t. If anyone has a 100% foolproof link to a free Lipper site (or an inexpensive subscription with access to such) I’d appreciate it. Might drop M* in such case.

Sold all the CEFs purchased in the first couple weeks of ‘25. The last one acquired, RLTY (bought 1/10), did best. All bounced after rates on the 10-year reversed trend earlier this week. Pocketed a 4-5% gain on the CEF collection (including 2 pending distributions). Rolled entire amount into RAPAX - a real assets fund (45% real estate) late yesterday. Equity exposure should end up north of 45% after dust settles. With the earlier mentioned dive into GAA yesterday I’m not planning any more excursions for a while. I think ‘25 will be a harder year to make money. Preservation paramount.

FWIW, our choice in that Cat is BISAX, available NTF at VG.
It's arguably Best in (That) Class since its inception on 01/31/12.
Growth of $10K since ARDBX inception** on 05/16/22:
BISAX: $12,361
ARDBX: $10,609
** = See also (albeit very dated) https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/?s=bisax for additional MFO review of BISAX.

I did consider BISAX (Foreign Small/Mid Value) and several other funds but decided to go with ARDBX instead.
Both ARDBX portfolio managers previously worked with David Samra at ARTKX.
Mr. Samra (along with others) produced excellent long-term returns with moderate risk at ARTKX.
ARDBX implements a similar investment process and Samra serves as a Managing Director
but doesn't make any buy/sell decisions.
I don't like the fund's high expense ratio (somewhat common for Artisan) but this is an auxillary position for me.
We'll see how it fares over longer time periods...

Re the 2036 due issue, Fidelity shows Yield to worst at 5.267% - that does not sound right
Looks about right to me. A back of the envelope calculation (no yield calculator required) has it coming out to about that (before subtracting the cost of the trade, which further reduces yield).
First call is in 17 months (June 2026). Amortizing the premium ask price (0.573%) over 17 months comes to around 0.4%/year. Subtract that from the coupon rate of 5.7% and you get 5.3%. Given all the rounding and disregarding of compounding effects, the stated 5.267% yield seems correct, or at least close enough.

@Level5, When buying callable Agencies, I ask myself if I would be OK with the interest rate if the bond is never called.
20 years is too far out - I may not be alive and I do not know if 5.5 to 6% yield is enough for something that far out, unless it is US Treasuries.
Re the 2036 due issue, Fidelity shows Yield to worst at 5.267% - that does not sound right. In any case, I only buy new issue to avoid having to deal with bid-ask spreads of secondary purchases and pay commissions.

@BaluBalu - thanks for re-introducing agency bonds into discussion. Still, 3-month continous calls? So the investment is constantly prone to being called. I’ll pass on that option. Here are a few I’m pondering. I like that at least they have a guaranteed payment period:
3133ERT50
FMLB 5.9% 2045 call - 1/26
3130B1J81
Federal Home Loan Bank 5.7% due 6/12/2036 Callable 06/26@100
3130B4AJ0
Federal Home Loan Banks Cons Bd 5.375%44 5.375% due 12/27/2044 Callable 12/27@100
Your thoughts?