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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Maximizing Bonus Money in Brokerage Asset Transfers
    I thought I would share this hack as I have benefited greatly by doing this. If you are contemplating transferring assets to another brokerage that gives out a bonus for doing so, transfer the lowest amount for that tiers bonus and then transfer the same amount in say 60-90 days and get a 2nd bonus. Not all brokerages allow this but my new one did. Example: If a transfer of 100-250K gets a $300 bonus do a first transfer of 100k and a 2nd transfer of the same when allowed ,for a second bonus instead of transferring the 200k at one time. You will have to do the research to find out which brokerages will allow this. Having a financial advisor at the new brokerage can make this easier also. I will hold back on which one I have done this with so not to have it backfire on me. In the past 120 days I have tripled my bonuses by doing this. Happy Transferring!!
    fundly in Other Investing
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    @Old_Joe, if bond funds have already suffered the FEDs rate hikes, might they be a better alternative 2+ years down the road. I do understand trying to lock in a safe 5%+, but according to the yield curves that may not be feasible.
    MikeM MikeM in Other Investing
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Consider thinking outside the box, or in this case, outside of Schwab and brokerages in general.
    Hyperion Bank CDs (new money, available online, taxable accounts only):
    - 19 mo CD, 5.35% rate, 5.50% APY
    - 13 mo CD, 5.12% rate, 5.25% APY
    https://www.hyperionbank.com/ContentDocumentHandler.ashx?documentId=76584
    If you're looking for flexibility but still want to lock in a good rate, there are no penalty CDs.
    CIT Bank 11 mo CD, 4.80% APY
    https://www.cit.com/cit-bank/no-penalty-cd-direct
    If you're interested in a CD that floats above the cash rate, Merchant Bank of Indiana has flexible rate CDs, for periods of 12, 24, and 36 months. They all pay prime minus 2.75%, but not less than zero. Currently, that's 5.39% APY (5.25% rate).
    https://www.merchantsbankofindiana.com/certificates-of-deposit/
    msf in Other Investing
  • FCONX to FCNVX Auto-Conversion
    Ignoring past history (as the rate environment was different), I am thinking of using ultra-ST bonds as an alternative for manual- or auto- rolls of T-Bills.
    Fido OEF: FCNVX ER 0.25% (no trading restrictions at Fido)
    ETFs with lower ERs:GSY, ICSH, JPST, ULST, VUSB (my preference is ICSH but I searched for others)
    Fido m-mkt funds may be fine too, but core/settlement SPAXX is so-so, and many attractive ones have high/institutional minimums. Vanguard VMFXX is OK.
    Note that this ultra-ST bond category post-GFC is investment-grade, unlike the pre-GFC disasters that used ST-HY or FR/BL. In fact, for a short while after the GFC, the ultra-ST bond category disappeared temporarily.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Fund Discussions
  • Best Returns on Currently Available CDs or Treasuries Maturing 2024 to 2025 ?
    Thought that I'd ask for MFO community input before buying at Schwab. The best that I see there, non-callable, is:
    • US Treasury | 04/30/2024 | YTM: 4.594
    • CD: 4.85% | 04/25/2024 | Charles Schwab Bank TX
    • CD: 4.90% | 04/16/2024 | Wells Fargo Bank, Nt SD
    Thanks for any info you might have.
    Old_Joe Old_Joe in Other Investing
  • WSJ Report - A New Roster of Top Stock-Fund Managers
    "Can’t anybody here play this game?
    That quote from baseball legend Casey Stengel would apply to the job of stock-fund manager these days. Under the pressure of an uncertain stock market and banking system—and the Federal Reserve’s relentless interest-rate increases to try to tame inflation—it has been harder than ever for stock-picking fund managers to grind out gains.
    A year ago, when managers closed the books at the end of the 2022 first quarter, scores of funds posted healthy gains, and all 10 that topped the list in The Wall Street Journal’s quarterly Winners’ Circle survey of outperforming funds delivered returns north of 20%. Flash forward to today, and the picture is different: The market is down for the 12 months, and of the 1,257 qualifying mutual funds in the survey, only 27 managed to eke out any kind of positive return, and only 10 posted a return north of 3%.
    The average performance for the funds was minus 8.3%, trailing the S&P 500 index’s total return of minus 7.7%."
    By: By Suzanne McGee Link
    Mark Mark in Fund Discussions
  • Fido NetBenefits Down?
    Fido Brokerage Bill Pay went down a few minutes ago. Just came back, but lost work I had entered shortly before it went down.
    I didn't capture the first error message. The last error message was:
    503 Service Temporarily Unavailable
    msf in Other Investing
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    @hank
    I hoped WSKY was the ticket for single malts, and if they liquidated ( which they eventually did for lack of interest) they would pay me in liquid assets, but no.
    I have spent some time looking at ETFs that are plays on the EV and climate change "revolutions" along with commodities and resources that will become more expensive with climate change. There are a lot of ETFs investing in metal futures that will be necessary for EVs, like Lithium, Copper rare earths etc. You would think they would take off like rockets, but the general decline in commodities, with increased recession fears has crushed many of them, but others like Silver are up 25% in six months.
    Jeremy Grantham had a long piece years ago, predicting dramatic increases in price of food and agricultural products for a number of reasons. I started looking at commodities back then, but it was pretty early. After a bump from the war in Ukraine, agricultural commodities have been relatively flat, but not down like the metals.
    It is hard for individual investors like us to make sense of this, without "inside" knowledge, and I am not sure that even the actively managed funds have this kind of expertise. Who would predict that bird flu would kill mostly egg laying chickens, rather than birds raised for meat?
    I think it makes sense to own a variety of funds with different focus, in addition to a general commodity fund. COM has been mentioned here before and so far seems less volatile than most.
    sma3 in Fund Discussions
  • Stock Pickers Failed to Take Part in First-Quarter Rally (Active Mutual Funds)

    From the WSJ
    "Stock pickers missed out on the first-quarter rally, failing to extend their recent winning streak.
    Only one in three actively managed large-cap mutual funds beat their benchmarks in the first three months of the year, the worst performance since the three-month period ended December 2020, according to data from Bank of America Global Research.
    That marked a shift from last year when 57% of large-cap mutual funds raced ahead of their benchmarks in a market rocked by red-hot inflation, rising interest rates and worries over a potential recession. More funds beat their benchmarks in 2022 than in other any year since 2007, when 71% of them did so, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc."
    Link
    Mark Mark in Fund Discussions
  • Fido NetBenefits Down?
    It has been down at least since yesterday (Sunday, 4/9/23). The message says:
    "
    [229]The service is experiencing technical difficulties. Please try again later.
    REQ6433f62abf7414939bb46570a9ceaa33
    "
    Edit/Add: Fido NetBenefits is for 401k/403b. Fido Brokerage is working fine.
    yogibearbull yogibearbull in Other Investing
  • I bonds and tax refund
    I've done it twice, no problem. But, once you are presented with a TurboTax screen, it can be frustrating to navigate your way back to it. Use the bookmark function, it you are not ready to commit.
    The paper bond takes a while to arrive.
    Buying I-bonds, you are allowed $10,000 per person, plus $5,000 per return. So, we have purchased $25,000 in I-bonds for 2023.
    WhollyTerriers in Other Investing
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    ARTKX is categorized as international large cap value. I compared its metrics to a ARTGX plus a bunch of ILCV funds. What stood out was the ARTVX had a far lower Ulcer Index than its peers, so I ran a second screen for ILCV funds with an APR over 10 and an Ulcer Index under 10. I sorted those by Sharpe ratio and checked the correlation of the three most promising to ARTKX.
    Franklin Templeton International Low Vol, Hi Div ETF (LVHI) - better than ARTKX in every way over the past three years except total return LVHI book 15%, ARTKX 21%. The R2 is 85.
    Causeway International Value (CIVIX) - same returns, higher volatility. The R2 is 96.
    Fidelity International Value (FIVLX) - lower returns (17 vs 21%), comparable Ulcer Index (7.2 vs 6.5). High correlation (98) to Artisan, which implies they're playing the same game but Artisan is playing it better.
    Artisan Global Value (ARTGX) - high correlation (97) but slightly trails ARTKX in pretty much all metrics.
    All are top tier since the screen started with low Ulcer / high returns.
    For what interest that holds,
    David
    wdavidsnowball in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Perhaps we should look into @LB article on Barron’s with respect to active foreign funds/ETFs. Thanks to @yogibearbull, he has summarized these funds.
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2023/Q1 and YTD to 3/31/23)
    Pg L3: After lagging for several years, the INTERNATIONAL/GLOBAL funds are relatively cheap (value cheaper than growth) and may outperform. Use risk control strategies – lower SDs, favorable U/D CR, etc. For the US investors in foreign funds, a strong DOLLAR has been a headwind. OEFs: AIVBX, BISAX, FISMX, FMIJX, GQGPX, RNWOX, SGENX, SIGIX, TBGVX; ETFs: ACWV, EFA, EFAV, EFG, EFV, EEM, HDG, HEFA, VIGI. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L8: The US-China DECOUPLING will take a while. China has also been tough on its big techs. But small-caps have escaped the watchful eyes of the Chinese government. OEFs: FHKCX, MCDFX, MCHFX, MCSMX, RNWOX, SIGIX, SGOVX; ETFs: ASHR, CHIQ, CNYA, CQQQ, CXSE, EWH, FXI, GXC, KBA, KWEB, MCHI, PGJ. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Pg L9: GROWTH funds are rebounding, but be selective. Some former big techs have fallen off the growth wagon and some energy companies have joined. Large-cap growth (IVW, MGK, RPG, SCHG) has been outperforming small/mid-cap growth (IJT, RZG). The OEFs mentioned are HCAIX, TRBCX, VWIGX.
    EXTRA: FAITH-BASED funds cover a wide variety and several are rebounding. Vatican published its investment guidelines in November 2022 that also included responsible ESG. Private direct-indexing is a growing area. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    Fund news from elsewhere in Barron’s (Forthcoming Part 2).
    Pg 13, FUNDS. MUNI MONEY-MARKET funds (tax-exempt) with near juicy 4% yields are attractive. This is a tiny area with $130 billion AUM only vs $500 billion AUM pre-GFC-2008, and $5 trillion AUM for taxable money-market funds. These invest in floating-rate munis (VRDNs) that reset rates weekly according to the SIFMA rates. Typically, the SIFMA rates are 40-80% of (taxable) fed fund rates, but they are elevated now due to redemptions to pay taxes (so, these high rates may not last beyond April). These funds partner with BANKS to provide daily and weekly liquidity guarantees. By definition, their DURATION is considered to be the rate reset period regardless of the maturities of the underlying munis (so, don’t get alarmed when looking at their holdings and maturities). Mentioned are FTEXX / FTCXX, SWTXX, VMSXX, VTMXX. (Their overall structure and rate resetting process seem complicated and may have unknown risks)
    Pg 24, INCOME INVESTING. Selected REITs are attractive after their recent battering. Their earnings have been cut but the SP5500 earnings remain OK (so, the REITs client companies are doing fine). A FED pause will benefit the REITs, but RECESSION won’t, so it’s time only to nibble in REITs. Attractive REITs are industrial (PLD, ADC, GLPI), residential, self-storage, data-centers. Avoid REITs for offices and malls (big/regional or strip/local). Several publicly traded REITs are more attractive than private real estate (that suffer from lagging mark-to-market; negative news on monthly/quarterly redemption limits for several nontraded-REITs).
    Pg L33: In 2023/Q1 (SP500 +7.50%): Among general equity funds, best were LC-growth +13.52%, multi-cap-growth +11.35%, and worst were small-cap-value +0.77%, mid-cap-value +0.84%, equity-income +0.95%; ALL general equity categories were positive AGAIN. Among other equity funds, the best were sc & tech +18.80%, telecom +11.66%, global large-cap-growth +11.10%, and worst were financials -7.77%. Among fixed-income funds, domestic long-term FI +2.55%, world income +2.96%; ALL FI categories were positive too AGAIN (FI isn’t very refined in Lipper mutual fund categories listed in Barron’s). So, good 2022/Q4 (value shined) & 2023/Q1 (LC growth shined).
    LINK
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60940/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2023-q1-april-10-2023#latest
    Sven in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Several Matthews Asia funds were mentioned.
    I personally would stay away from all Matthews Asia funds in the near-term (possibly long-term).
    There has been an exodus of talent at the firm over the past few years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/152046
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/156101
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/159415
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    Agreeing with @Observant1's comments: Thomas Coutts has been the lead manager on the pure Baillie Gifford international fund, BGETX, since inception. Until 2021, that fund tracked VWIGX extremely closely (see Portfolio Visualizer graph).
    The relative underperformance of Coutt's' fund BGETX since the start of 2021 may be attributed to that fund being "purer" growth than VWIGX. The Vanguard fund gets some "tamer growth" (per Yogi) from the 30% managed by Schroeders. The Schroeders component explains virtually all the difference. This can be inferred from this PortfolioVisualizer graph. It compares (since Jan 2021) BGETX, VWIGX, and SCIEX (pure Schroeders, managed by the same Schroeder managers as on VWIGX).
    In case more evidence is needed, we can compare recent (post Anderson) performance of VWIGX with a pure Anderson fund. Yes, he's still managing an international fund, just not one based in the US. Desjardins Overseas Equity Growth, out of Canada. Anderson's the sole manager, and like VWIGX, this fund has 14% of its equity in the US with the rest outside of the US and Canada.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/portfolio.aspx?t=0P00011073
    In 2022, Anderson's fund ranked at the 100th (Canadian) percentile, losing 33.12% while Coutts' BGETX lost 34.43%. YTD, the former gained 10.47% while the latter gained 11.27%. Hard to tell the two apart. At least from a distance.
    https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/report/fund/performance.aspx?t=0P00011073
    As others have stated, analysts play a large role.
    Baillie Gifford’s staff turnover is negligible, at around 5% per year. Many analysts come straight from university and stay with Baillie Gifford for their whole career.
    In a recent research note, Winterflood points out that other partners have left without any apparent impact on their funds.
    https://portfolio-adviser.com/will-baillie-gifford-avoid-the-major-transition-pitfalls-as-growth-architect-james-anderson-leaves/
    msf in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy

    Have you considered Vanguard International Growth?
    1. Top-decile 10 Yr and 15 Yr fund category returns (period ending 03-31-23)
    2. Schroder Investment Management advised since 1981; Baillie Gifford advised since 2003
    3. Expense Ratio: VWILX - 0.34% ($50K min.); VWIGX - 0.45% ($3K min.)
    4. Turnover: 2019 - 13%; 2020 - 20%; 2021 - 25%; 2022 - 15%
    5. Available via Vanguard brokerage
    6. 87% foreign; 13% U.S. (as of 01-31-23)
    Vanguard International Growth is a volatile fund with a standard deviation of 25.16 as of 03-31-23.
    M* classifies the fund as high risk relative to the Foreign Large Growth fund category.
    VWILX performance in 2022 was terrible - it declined 30.79%.
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • Anybody care to recommend a good natural resources ETF?
    I don't think it's any easier today for a fund to corral heads of steer than it was in 2006 :-)
    Good point. You’d need some pretty high boots I suppose. :)
    Casks of single malt wouldn’t appear too hard to store. Price and quality increase with age. For example, a 15-year old tastes better and sells for more than a 10-year.
    I find GLTR interesting. From my reading it’s non-traditional among the precious metals funds in that it uses derivatives rather than physically holding the metals. Also spreads the risk across 4 different precious metals, though predominantly invested in gold.
    hank in Fund Discussions
  • Alternative to Artisan International Value (ARTKX)?
    I've been planning to liquidate our holding in Matthews Pacific Tiger (MAPTX) and was going to put that money into Artisan International Value (ARTKX), but have discovered it is closed to new investors; bummer!
    What alternatives would you suggest? My priorities:
    1. Long-term, sustained outperformance versus a relevant benchmark
    2. stable management
    3. low fees (expense ratio); no-load
    4. low turnover
    5. available from our Vanguard brokerage account
    6. invests primarily overseas; we already have plenty of US-based investments
    Thanks for any suggestions!
    Randy
    randynevin randynevin in Fund Discussions
  • Infinity Q Capital Management Plans to Return $500 Million to Mutual-Fund Investors
    Excerpted from a CityWire article published on 04/07/2023.
    "James Velissaris, the founder, former CIO and lead portfolio manager of Infinity Q Capital Management, was sentenced to 15 years in prison and ordered to pay an unspecified amount of restitution by US District Judge Denise Cote on Friday afternoon in Manhattan."
    "Velissaris, 38, of Atlanta, pleaded guilty in November 2022 to one count of securities fraud in a deal with federal prosecutors in the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York that dropped several other felony charges and required him to forfeit $22m. The charges came about as a result of his role in a $1bn fund overvaluation scheme, with federal officials publicly levying their accusations in early 2022."
    Link (paywall)
    I'm glad that Mr. Velissaris received a lengthy prison sentence for the serious crimes he committed.
    Hopefully, this case will deter others in the financial industry from engaging in fraudulent schemes.
    Observant1 in Fund Discussions
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly (2023/Q1–April 10, 2023)
    Thanks Yogi. Can’t confirm - but I get the impression Forsyth enjoys time away from that duty. It’s a demanding role. Must take a toll on one over time.
    PS - The (alleged) comments Serwer attributes to NYC real estate magnates comparing their professional lives today as existing inside a “fishbowl” or “goat rodeo” are hilarious. :).
    And then there’s Jack Hough: “My car seems to be beating the stock market.” - LOL
    Hough’s whole article is a riot. Worth the price of the publication alone … Well, also somber if you’re in the market for a new car. New car prices are up 21% since September 2020. (Used car prices even more.) “Sub-$20,000 models” are “nearly extinct” - with those priced at under $25,000 “next in line” for extinction.
    Agree with others - it’s an excellent article on International Funds by @LewisBraham. Very extensive and comprehensive look at opportunities in various corners of the international markets and the related trade-offs.
    hank in Fund Discussions