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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    "Calamos Investments filed Monday for so-called “structured-protection” exchange-traded funds that will track a portion of the returns of the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 while hedging 100% of the downside via the options market, according to a Monday filing.
    It's a gimmick I'd say.
    I agree, if for a different reason.
    In the world where you would get any benefit from 100% downside protection - if there is a world left by then - SP500 would be down to '0' and, should they still be around to pay out, your money would be worthless anyway. (In fact, if they really wanted to get attention, they should offer a fund hedging in $'s up to, say, 95% downside and switching payout to 'chips' - my choice: potato - if the reference index drops any further.)
    Historically, since 1950, there has been one instance of > 50% DD on SP500 and four in the 30-40%'s (if you believe this link). So, when dabbling in hedged ETFs, I find ~ 15-20% downside protection more reasonable - which also allows for a higher upside.
  • Opportunistic Trader ETF (WZRD) will be liquidated
    @hank, there is also an annual fixed cost of about 250k to run an ETF why even well known firms liquidate ETFs if they do not accumulate assets after a year or two. The ETF business is not as lucrative as inventing an index or strategy that you could license to other ETF shops. Or come up with a hot thematic ETF like a Bitcoin ETF, cybersecurity ETF, etc. Anyway, good luck!
  • Opportunistic Trader ETF (WZRD) will be liquidated
    @hank,
    Yes, I think it costs at least $500K to start an ETF, especially for the first one.
    I too think it is a great ticker. I think you can use it if it is not being used - check the SEC rules. If you are superstitious, you may avoid it no matter how brand value you might perceive.
    If you want a ticker that is being used, you can buy it from the current user. META used to be a ticker for an ETF when FaceBook bought it. That ETF is now METV.
  • Grandeur Funds (GPGOX, GPIOX)
    I started a position in GPMCX around the time most everyone else did here back in 2015. After going great guns, and then recovering from Covid, since 2021 it has been all downhill. Fortunately I sold most of the position.
    I have a hard time figuring out what they are doing wrong, but I am sticking with funds I am more comfortable with,
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    If you are going to remain "overweight" in equities, the 1 phrase that sticks in my mind is:
    "A rising tide lifts all boats" - JFK
    ....and the reverse is true as well. Defensive sectors (Utilities, Health, etc.) don't always hold up. So it would be nice to think that there are "low risk" strategies that could work. But they rarely do.
    The M* article that YBB posted pointed out that both Low-volatility and Alternative investments have been hampered severely by extremely low interest rates (earned by Treasuries and Cash collateral) over the past 15 years.
    The article finished with:
    "But what feels good is not necessarily what is right. As a rule, competitive gains do not occur without accompanying pain.
    That’s a message worth remembering when investment vendors respond to a stock downturn by selling safety. They always do."
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    Nice @msf
    I liken the “drag effect” of portfolio hedging to brakes on a car. A car would be much more efficient and would travel farther if you just left it rolling along.
    PS - @msf said “Shilling (attrib Keynes): The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
    That’s scary if true. It suggests our perspective on markets based on most of our investing lifetimes may not reflect reality. My “hands-on” experience dates to 1995, or about 30 years. Prior to that I paid little attention. Despite a few awful downturns (2000, 2008, 2020, 2022) U.S. equities have dramatically outpaced just about every other kind of investment. I dare say that holding bonds or other hedges over that 30 year span would have resulted in a lower overall return.
    But, as I think Shilling / Keynes implies, that 30 year period may represent some type of alternative universe rather then reality.
    FWIW / Fido’s analytics currently put me at 51% equities. Too high. Waiting for a good chance to reduce that.
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    Volatility reduction tactics can improve long term performance. It depends on how long the term is. As you imply, in the withdrawal stage long term is decidedly shorter. Two quotes come to mind.
    Keynes: In the long run we are all dead. Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us that when the storm is long past the ocean is flat again.
    Shilling (attrib Keynes): The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent
    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/6757924-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead-economists-set
    https://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/08/09/remain-solvent/
    Still, I maintain significant exposure to vanilla equities. Though that is with what I feel is adequate ballast that can be drawn down as needed.
  • M* JR: Low-Risk (Claimed) = High Risk (Realized)
    ”This column should not be read as a criticism of low-risk investments. They aren’t required for younger investors, who need not worry about redeeming their funds at the wrong time (at least, if they are sensible), but they are critical for retirees who are withdrawing their assets. Ballast prevents them from entering a bear market spiral in which they spend ever-larger percentages of their portfolio to realize the same amount of money. Do that for long, and you are in real trouble.”
    Do younger investors (ie ages 25-45) really pay much attention to portfolio construction / hedging? Sure, some do. And likely if they’re reading this board they pay greater attention than the average working stiff with a job, kids in school, a big mortgage and 25 + years to retirement.
    Good article. Hopefully (as the author suggests) well considered portfolio specific hedging may reduce short term volatility for those already in the withdrawal stage. In no way, shape or form would I ever argue that hedging improves longer term performance. And … there’s always the option (hedge) of moving a big chunk into cash and / or CDs, as one well-heeled poster appears to have done recently. As a sometimes landscaper / gardener, I’m aware that hedges come in many different shapes and colors.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (04/19/24)
    The most important charts and themes in markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:14 Topics
    00:46 When the Levee Breaks
    07:21 The Other Side of Mania
    12:01 The Large/Small Divide
    15:19 Netflix Numbers
    19:14 When Valuation Matters
    22:12 Tesla Trimming
    26:25 Housing Slump Continues
    30:51 Higher (Cash Yields) For Longer
    Video
    Blog
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    BOT more shares of GOOGL while down slightly in pre-market trading to bring position to intended level. Avg share price just under $138 (a wee bit lower than the $140+ on our first BUY/SELL). Will either be another ST trade. if we get a bounce, or will ADD to position as LT HOLD. All yet TBD.
    EDIT: Decided to dbl the position. BOT more shares during early market action as price kept falling. Snagged next batch at just under $136. Fun stuff!
    EDIT_2: Closed out the position with some BUYs later in the day in the $135's, to end at an avg purchase price of $137, less than 1/2% below today's Close. Seems to be about where we were when we took the first ride on GOOGL. Lot of negativity towards it now but thinking we should be just about done with this round of punishment. We'll see!
    SOLD full position in GOOGL on after hours POP at ~$177 for a ST Gain of ~29%. This trade took a LOT longer than expected to materialize but ended up being the best of my three ST plays on GOOGL, then NVDA, then GOOGL again.
  • CD
    the Fed continues it's rate reductions
    Continues?
    I'm not counting on rates dropping soon. Around 70% of the economy is driven by consumer spending, which "grew at a still-solid 2.5% rate, slowing from the [previous quarter's] 3.3% growth pace".
    https://www.fidelity.com/news/article/top-news/202404250006RTRSNEWSCOMBINED_KCN36S06D-OUSBS_1
    And from the cited WP piece, "That exuberant [consumer] spending — especially on travel, restaurants, concerts and other services — has recently lifted inflation, reigniting fears that the Federal Reserve may have to be even more aggressive in its efforts to slow the economy."
    "Yields remain higher on the day after the latest GDP report showed slower growth and higher inflation than expected." (WSJ)
    https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-04-25-2024/card/treasury-yields-stable-after-solid-7-year-auction-yg7fFwF9KaOlkRIwZylf
    IMHO the markets tend to initially overreact to any news. Still, yields aren't going down in the short term. Nevertheless, grabbing longer term rates over the next few weeks seems like a solid, cautious approach.
  • CD
    Sold 100k SUTXX MMKT (currently 5.17%) to extend income ladder- 50k treasuries, mature 2/26 @ 4.9698%, and 1/27 @ 4.806%
    Note: The Washington Post is reporting that "the U.S. economy grew at 1.6 percent annual rate in first quarter 2024, a sharp slowdown".
    Those of us currently building and maintaining income ladders should be alert that high current MMKT returns may drop significantly if the economy slows and the Fed continues finally begins it's rate reductions, and consider moving at least some MMKT cash to long-term securities.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Sold 100k SUTXX MMKT (currently 5.17%) to extend income ladder- 50k treasuries, mature 2/26 @ 4.9698%, and 1/27 @ 4.806%
    Note: The Washington Post is reporting that "the U.S. economy grew at 1.6 percent annual rate in first quarter 2024, a sharp slowdown".
    Those of us currently building and maintaining income ladders should be alert that high current MMKT returns may drop significantly if the economy slows and the Fed continues finally begins it's rate reductions, and consider moving at least some MMKT cash to long-term securities.
  • Opportunistic Trader ETF (WZRD) will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418924002557/opportunistictraderliquida.htm
    497 1 opportunistictraderliquida.htm OPPORTUNISTIC TRADER ETF 497E
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-215588; 811-23226
    Opportunistic Trader ETF (WZRD)
    a series of Listed Funds Trust
    Supplement dated April 24, 2024
    to the Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    dated February 7, 2024
    After careful consideration, OT Advisors, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Opportunistic Trader ETF (the “Fund”), and the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Listed Funds Trust have jointly determined that the liquidation of the Fund is in its and its shareholders’ best interests. Accordingly, the Board approved the closing and subsequent liquidation of the Fund pursuant to the terms of a Plan of Liquidation. The Fund is expected to cease operations, liquidate its assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders on or about May 9, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Fund are listed on NYSE Arca, Inc.
    Effective immediately and continuing through the Liquidation Date, the Fund will commence the liquidation of its portfolio assets. During this period, the Fund will increase its cash holdings and deviate from its investment objective, investment strategies, and investment policies as stated in the Fund’s Prospectuses and SAI.
    The Fund will no longer accept orders for new creation units after the close of business on the business day prior to the Liquidation Date, and trading in the shares of the Fund will be halted prior to market open on the Liquidation Date. Prior to the Liquidation Date, there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Fund’s shares during that time period, and shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    If no action is taken by a Fund shareholder prior to the Liquidation Date, the Fund will distribute to such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal to the net asset value of the shareholder’s Fund shares as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. This amount will include any accrued capital gains and dividends. Shareholders remaining in the Fund on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Fund. However, the net asset value of the Fund on the date of the liquidating distribution is calculated will reflect the costs of liquidating the Fund. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of your shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Shareholders can call (800) 617-0004 for additional information.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
  • Does Fidelity provide free M* Premium Access?
    Paying $200 for a (introductory) year of M* Premium Investor. That’s $16.66 a month. You can’t buy a bottle of drinkable scotch for that. I saw a 6-pack of Sam Adam’s (Boston Lager) priced at $12.50 (+ bottle deposit) where I shop the other day. We are all suffering from “sticker shock.” Everything seems more expensive, especially if you’ve been retired a long time. I love reading financial stuff. Spend hours a week reading up on funds on M* alone. Usually it’s just to get an idea how different approaches are faring, as my core holdings hardly ever change.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Would pay a kings ransom just to see the list of "investors" buying this stock daily. DJT is averaging 6M shares per day. Are the buyers from Russia? China? Supreme Court justices?
    DJT is up over 12% today, at $36.75 for the moment.
    It's one thing to hear about a con after the rubes have been fleeced, but its another to watch it all in slow motion. You can goose a stock price for only so long.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)

    I cannot remember any company that within a month of its IPO is begging Congress (let alone market makers) to save its falling share price. Apparently their CEO (a former GQP congresscritter) believes that 'free markets' are great only when you can profit from them -- which is par for the course with these people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/24/devin-nunes-trump-media-stock-congress-00154054
  • Rising Auto & Home Insurance Costs
    My first & last boat leans up against back garden shed. I paid all of $100 for 11'6" flat bottom v hull. Many enjoyable hours spent fishing !
    To each his own.
    For fishing I never thought it made much difference what size boat. Over 45 years I owned both an aluminum 14’ and a deeper wider 16-footer. Was crazy enough to troll out on Lake Michigan with that 14-footer and just a single 15 HP outboard during the 70s & 80s. The larger boat had a second engine.
    Back to fishing … I think size is overrated. Have enjoyed catching bluegill from the edge of a pond in the spring just as much as hauling in 30 lb + salmon on the great lakes in August. You could argue the bluegill taste better.