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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dip Buyers Scorched by Cratering Bank Stocks Head for the Exits - Bloomberg
    Well! I've learned some lessons through the years. I cannot sell my smallish, mid-sized bank stock at THIS point. (Stick out foot, then pull trigger.) ...I did unload a true beast: PRISX. TRP Financials, though. I redeployed the money, not taking it out. When I get some spare cash again at the head of the month of June, I'll be buying more of BHB. They've even managed to RAISE the dividend a tiny bit. P/E stands at 7.23. And P/B is 0.84. Price-to-cash-flow = 5.96. Trailing div is 5.81%. (That last one is surely connected to the fall in the share price.) The geniuses at Morningstar say I'm holding a stock that sits at 33% less than its true value. Market cap = 343.7588 Mil. Call me stubborn. But this one I can see is a "keeper." This crisis will pass, like the others. And I sense that it's a GOOD thing that this stock is not in the news.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @msf In addition to the evidence you provide about Dem vs Rep budgeting, there have been a number of studies refuting the 1998 research @Baseball_Fan cites by Feldstein and Wrobel regarding progressive tax policies, income inequality and wealth migration:
    https://cbpp.org/research/state-budget-and-tax/tax-flight-is-a-myth
    https://researchgate.net/publication/4731605_Do_Redistributive_State_Taxes_Reduce_Inequality
    While it is possible for a billionaire to leave a high tax country for a low tax one with relative ease, it is far less likely for the average high-earning wealthy person to do this. Among the reasons is that normally people are usually later in their lives when they are at their peak earnings levels, and have established important career and business ties in their local area that are not so easy to rebuild in a new state. Moreover, moving is a pain, and causes disruption of family and friends.
    The evidence indicates that Feldstein and Wrobel's research was skewed by the fact that progressive tax states already had high levels of income inequality to begin with before such taxes were enacted. It is one of the reasons the taxes were enacted in the first place. The taxes reduce inequality, but there remains often a higher than average level of income inequality in such states. No tax is going to fix the difference between a Silicon Valley millionaire/billionaire and the average person. But it eases the pain.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    The state budget/pension situation is why I gleefully bought into the 403(b) option versus the state pension when I joined the uni system. Not only was the 403b portable and fully-vested immediately, but if I was going to lose (or make) money, I wanted to be the one responsible, not some politically-appointed state investment board who might, for example, think 25% or more in high-priced hedge funds is a good idea.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Yes I maintain a little in a global bond fund and also hold a high yield mini fund. They’ve long been part of a well diversified low risk portfolio. Bonds & bond funds got whacked in 2022. Worst year for bonds I can remember in more than 25 years of managing my own investments. That didn’t deter me from keeping the same allocation. Since my total allocation to all fixed income (cash and bonds) is only 20% you might assume there’s not a whole lot in bond funds. Where possible, I favor multi-asset allocation and alternative investment funds to either pure fixed income or stock funds.
    *Note: I also hold a convertible bond fund. That’s considered an “alternative” type investment and so is not included in the above fixed income amount.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    yes, even h.y. munis give 4.15 now. HYMU...although i don't own it.
    I keep some bond funds, yes. I'm not the sort that reacts and makes moves based on the macro picture------much. SCHP tips and HYDB junk. And prcpx & tuhyx, both junk. I bought into tuhyx at just the wrong time. i held on, and it's very slowly rising for me. attractive dividends.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    State budgets have to follow the rules of economics, because they cannot print money. CT was running neck and neck with IL for the most indebted state
    consequently, taxes went way up, real estate shriveled ( housing prices were flat from 1987 to 2019!) and people left.
    A moderate Democrat has refused the left wing's demand to spend more, and the pension deficit is easing.
    Massachusetts was in similar shape in the past but they have a flat rate income tax, passed a law preventing town budgets from rising more than 2 1/2% without voter consent and they let loose Harvard and MIT Biotech and they are no longer Taxachussets.
    But with the Covid budget surplus, the politicians want to spend again and they haven't learned their lesson
    There are massive amounts of money that can be cut in the Federal budget, if the corporate hogs were kept away from the trough.
    Medicare is a prime example. The US spends twice as much as any other country on health care, with worse results.
    "Of the 10 highest paid among all corporate executives in the US in 2020, 3 were from Oak Street Health, and salary and benefits included, reportedly, $568 million for the chief executive officer (CEO). Executives in large hospital systems commonly have salaries and benefits of several million dollars a year."
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2801097
    The budget busting Alzheimer's drugs are just the start.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    I increased my position in RHPIX but sold everything else last year when they all were down 4 to 5%, thus avoiding worse losses. I did jump into OSTIX again a month or so again. I have had a position in it off and on over the years
    I figure they have a decent chance of avoiding credit blow ups and high yield may be less interest rate sensitive.
    I also bought some long term munis and muni bond funds
    It is hard to beat 4 to 4.5%
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    OP Q: "Anybody investing in bond funds?"
    A: Um, not us.
    Why not? Well, we ask ourselves, what do we expect as likely/probable average annual TRs from dedicated bond funds over the next say, five years? We answer, maybe 4%-5% if we're very lucky.
    With 5-yr, non-callable, 4.5% CDs widely available now, and over 5% widely available back at the peak, why should be bother with dedicated bond funds for the next 3-5 years?
    We are sufficiently over the interest rate hurdle that allows us to "Just Say No" to dedicated bond funds for the next several years.
  • Anybody Investing in bond funds?
    Yes, I have some $ in etf's BOND and IEF. I'm not putting $ in OEFs now; I did like you and had some decent $ in Pimco Income in the early part of the year, but decided I was early and sold at ~ breakeven. I have most of the portfolio in T bills now, with a combined yield at the moment of a hair over 5%. I'm happy with that at least for now.
    I will be back in bond OEFs, but it may not be to any significant degree until well into Q3 or even Q4, depending on the rate situation. Then again, once the debt debacle plays out, that may be a time for IG, and maybe some credit too. But I'll likely keep to etf's for maximum flexibility.
    I'm a retiree sans pension who couldn't handle major losses, so this is just my individual take. YMMV.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    Look at Chicago, getting choked by the pension costs and debt service....just like virtually all democratic run cities in the USA.
    There's no question that Chicago's pensions are way underfunded - its four unions have funding ratios ranging from just 21% to 46%, according to this 2022 WTTW (Chicago PBS) report. That's close to, if not at, the bottom of the pack. A 2019 Pew Research Center Report specifically called out Chicago for it low and rapidly declining funding ratio.
    And that's the point. It's dangerous to draw inferences from a single data point, especially from an outlier. Instead, use broader data. Here's a 2023 report from the conservative think tank (per Crain's) Truth In Accounting. It presents 2021 debt (or surplus) per taxpayer for the 75 largest US cities, including pension liabilities. 25 cities have surpluses, 50 are in debt.
    Ballotpedia reports that in 2020, of the mayors in the 100 largest cities, 64% were Democrats, 29% were Republicans, and 7% were nonpartisan. That's almost exactly in line with the breakdown of the 25 cities reported to have surpluses: 16 Democrats (64%), 8 Republicans (32%), and 1 nonpartisan (4%). Republicans don't seem to have done a better (or worse) job than Democrats in managing city budgets, once one controls for percentage representation.
    this is what some people in a very low percentage of counties who vote for govt handouts want, not the huge majority of counties in the USA
    Take care not to conflate people and counties. Otherwise one might wind up thinking that Illinois is a deep red state.
    image
    Then there's Los Angeles County. Just one of 58 counties in California, yet 25% of the state's people live there. One can have a majority of people in a minority, even a small minority of counties. What counts, or what should count, are the people, not the land.
  • The Case For International Diversification
    Whether or not an investor should own foreign equities is a contentious topic in some circles.
    Some prominent investors (Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle) have stated
    that international diversification is not required.
    "If you could predict the future there would be no reason to diversify but no one has the ability to know what comes next in the markets or global economy."
    "Diversification is hard because you just know there is always going to be something in your portfolio that’s going to underperform. You just don’t know what that asset class or strategy it will be at any given time."
    "Global diversification is about accepting good enough returns to avoid the potential for terrible returns at an inopportune time."
    The author compares returns for the S&P 500 and MSCI World ex-U.S. indexes below.
    We have MSCI data for international stocks going back to 1970.
    Here are the annual returns for the S&P 500 and MSCI World ex-U.S. through April 2023:
    U.S. stocks +10.5%
    International stocks +9.1%
    It’s also true that much of the outperformance has taken place during the latest cycle.
    From 1970-2012, the annual returns were basically dead even:
    U.S. stocks +9.7%
    International stocks +9.6%
    Link
  • Advisers love bonds, cash and value stocks, shun growth and gold - BofA survey
    Just checking in again since the first post on March 8th. Quote "78% prefer Value (IWD) (VONV) vs. 12% who like Growth (IWF)"
    This (chart) since March 8th shows that IWF=growth continues to outperform IWD=value by more than 9% since and GLD did pretty well at 10+%
    YTD: IWF leads by "only" 16.5% (chart).
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark, congratulations.
    In 3 months when he gets his Social Security number, open a grandparent 529 to get a head start on college. Recent changes have eliminated previous roadblocks for this.
  • Seeing red across the board this morning.
    @Mark, Congratulation! It is a beautiful thing to welcome a new generation.
    Now is the time to help your son and daughter to get the 529 plan started. Time is on your side for the college fund to compound for next 18 years before withdrawing. You can apply for his/her social security number now and you are all set… College tuition is much higher now than those periods when we went to college. One of our kid graduated without debt while another one is entering graduate school with sufficient 529 fund to cover her schooling.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    No other country has a concept of debt ceiling as far as I know.
    Live and learn. The EU's concept of a debt ceiling (that's 27 countries) is "enshrined in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU) and the 'Fiscal Compact' [Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance]". In March, the EU agreed to continue the agreed upon debt and deficit ceilings.
    Denmark, one of the EU nations, goes further by layering its own absolute (DKK 2 trillion) debt ceiling on top of the EU's percentage limit.
    BBC, What Americans can learn from Denmark on handling debt ceiling crisis
    Kenya also currently has an absolute debt ceiling. It increased its ceiling by 11% (from Sh 9 trillion to Sh 10 trillion) in mid 2022 as a stop-gap. Still,
    By December, Kenya’s total debt stood at Sh9.6 trillion, which was only Sh400 million shy of the borrowing ceiling set by legislators. This effectively meant that the Ruto administration, which came to power after the August election, has had little headroom to borrow for either development or recurrent expenditure.
    https://www.pd.co.ke/news/ruto-cabinet-asks-mps-to-raise-public-debt-cap-to-sh17-trillion-171332/
    It's no wonder that Moody's just today (May 12) downgraded Kenya from B2 to B3.
    Then there's New Zealand. It sets a debt ceiling on a percentage basis, but its rules are complex, taking into consideration the type of spending (operational or capital) and other factors.
    Here's a page discussing how specific countries implement and deal with debt limits. Of note is its observation:
    Other countries have avoided deadlocks through one of these four routes:
    1. The ceiling is intentionally set sufficiently high such that it will not plausibly be crossed.
    2. The law is either amended or suspended during periods of heightened stress necessitating indebtedness.
    3. No punishments are tied to the legislation, meaning states often cross the limit with impunity.
    4. The law was scrapped altogether when it was severely curtailing the government’s policy space.
    https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/the-us-debt-limit-is-a-global-outlier/
  • James Alpha Funds Trust d/b/a Easterly Total Hedge Portfolio is to be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829774/000158064223002697/easterly-thp_497.htm
    497 1 easterly-thp_497.htm 497
    JAMES ALPHA FUNDS TRUST D/B/A EASTERLY FUNDS TRUST
    Supplement dated May 12, 2023 to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information of the Fund, each dated April 1, 2023
    This Supplement updates and supersedes any contrary information contained in the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information.
    The Board of Trustees of the James Alpha Funds Trust d/b/a Easterly Funds Trust (the “Trust”), based on information provided by Easterly Funds LLC (“Easterly”), has approved a Plan of Liquidation and Dissolution (“Plan”) for the above-listed series (the “Fund”) of the Trust. Effective the close of business on May 15, 2023, the Fund will cease selling shares to new investors and the Fund’s investment manager, Easterly, will begin liquidation of the Fund’s investments. Existing investors in the Fund may continue to purchase Fund shares up to the Liquidation Date, as described below. The Fund reserves the right, in its discretion, to modify the extent to which sales of shares are limited prior to the Liquidation Date.
    Pursuant to the Plan, the Fund will liquidate its investments and thereafter redeem all its outstanding shares by distribution of its assets to shareholders in amounts equal to the net asset value of each shareholder’s Fund investment after the Fund has paid or provided for all of its charges, taxes, expenses and liabilities. The Board has determined to close the Fund to new investors in advance of liquidation. Easterly anticipates that the Fund’s assets will be fully liquidated and all outstanding shares redeemed on or about June 12, 2023 (the “Liquidation Date”). This date may be changed without notice to shareholders, as the liquidation of the Fund’s assets or winding up of the Fund’s affairs may take longer than expected.
    Until the Liquidation Date, you may continue to freely redeem your shares, including reinvested distributions, in accordance with the section in the Prospectus entitled “How to Redeem Shares.” Shareholders may also exchange their Fund shares for shares of the same class of any other Fund in the Trust open to new investors, except as described in and subject to any restrictions set forth under “Exchange Privilege” in the Prospectus.
    Unless your investment in the Fund is through a tax-deferred retirement account, a redemption or exchange is subject to tax on any taxable gains. Please refer to the “Dividends and Distributions” and “Tax Consequences” sections in the Prospectus for general information. You may wish to consult your tax advisor about your particular situation.
    As a result of the intent to liquidate the Fund, the Fund is expected to deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and will no longer pursue its stated investment objective. The Fund will begin liquidating its investment portfolio on or about the date of this Supplement and will hold cash and cash equivalents, such as money market funds, until all investments have been converted to cash and all shares have been redeemed. During this period, your investment in the Fund will not experience the gains (or losses) that would be typical if the Fund were still pursuing its investment objective.
    Any capital gains will be distributed as soon as practicable to shareholders and reinvested in additional shares prior to distribution, unless you have previously requested payment in cash.
    ANY LIQUIDATING DISTRIBUTION, WHICH MAY BE IN CASH OR CASH EQUIVALENTS EQUAL TO EACH RECORD SHAREHOLDER’S PROPORTIONATE INTEREST OF THE NET ASSETS OF THE FUND, DUE TO THE FUND’S SHAREHOLDERS WILL BE SENT TO A FUND SHAREHOLDER’S ADDRESS OF RECORD. IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR NEED ASSISTANCE, PLEASE CONTACT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR DIRECTLY OR THE FUND AT (833) 999-2636.
    IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR RETIREMENT PLAN INVESTORS
    If you are a retirement plan investor, you should consult your tax advisor regarding the consequences of a redemption of Fund shares. If you receive a distribution from an Individual Retirement Account or a Simplified Employee Pension (SEP) IRA, you must roll the proceeds into another Individual Retirement Account within sixty (60) days of the date of the distribution in order to avoid having to include the distribution in your taxable income for the year. If you receive a distribution from a 403(b)(7) Custodian Account (Tax-Sheltered account) or a Keogh Account, you must roll the distribution into a similar type of retirement plan within sixty (60) days in order to avoid disqualification of your plan and the severe tax consequences that it can bring. If you are the trustee of a Qualified Retirement Plan, you may reinvest the money in any way permitted by the plan and trust agreement. If you have questions or need assistance, please contact your financial advisor directly or the Fund at (833) 999-2636.
    ***
    You should read this Supplement in conjunction with the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information, each dated April 1, 2023. Please retain this Supplement for future reference.
  • In case of DEFAULT
    @Hank. “Why oh why,,,,?” I am not telling you anything you don’t already know but that is the ultimate reason that the modern repugnant party exists. To cut taxes on the wealthy to zero and at the same time rid corporations of all government regulations. The culture war is just an easy way to get the suckers to vote against their own economic interests. I am certain that when the elite get together they aren’t thinking about erasing trans people or banning books. They are plotting to control all the wealth of this country instead of merely 95%.
  • Calls on CDs
    Disclaimer_1: Been investing in CD ladders for about 15 years. I only ever by non-callable and usually go out 3-5 years. And I many times buy CDs on the Secondary Market, but not-so-much in the past several months as the pendulum decisively swung to New Issues.
    ----------------------------------
    To the OP, pretty sure you should expect the majority, if not all of your longer-term, callable CDs to be called in the coming months/years. Just as we were reasonably certain that interest rates would rise this year, I at least am reasonably certain that interest rates will start decreasing in the near future. And, the difference between callable and non-callable is generally not greater than 0.5%.
    ----------------------------------
    On the issue of buying only shorter term CDs of say 2 years...Well, that is, how shall I say, short-sighted, and those investors who want to replace their maturing CDs in 2 years are likely going to be feeling a wee bit of buyer's regret.
    Example using current listing of Fido CDs:
    You are looking at CDs today. You only want non-callable CDs and you only want to go out a max of 2 years. So you buy the best 2-yr, non-callable CD that Fido has to offer at 4.95%.
    In two years it matures and you are looking for another 2-yr, non-callable CD to replace it. In 2 years, you will need to find a 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CD to equal the same rate that you could have had in hand IF you had bought today's best 4-yr, non-callable CD at 4.60%.
    Good luck with that. I'm reasonably certain that 2-yr, 4.25%, non-callable CDs will NOT be available in May 2025.
    Always best to put together an EXCEL spreadsheet and drop in the rates that are available NOW for respective periods, and determine what rate you will need upon maturing of a shorter-term CD (2 yrs in this example) to meet or exceed the rate of the currently available longer-term CD (4 yrs in this example).
    ----------------------------------
    Disclaimer_2: Future interest rates are usually WAGs.
    BUT, in the last say 6-12 months, it was something short of that as we were reasonably certain they were going UP, and we could even reasonably project where they would peak.
    Likewise, at this point, I at least am reasonably certain that rates will start going DOWN in the near future, but not anywhere near as capable of projecting how low they might go.
    So, my money, in this example, is on buying the 4-yr, 4.60% non-callable CD today as I have little-to-no expectation that a 2-yr, 4.25% non-callable CD will be available in May 2025.
    EDIT: The other argument against buying shorter term CDs, e.g., a current 1-yr, 5.15%, non-callable, is that the best money market funds are paying about the same, with VMRXX currently at 5.03% and FZDXX currently at 4.88%.
    ------------------------------------
    And speaking of potential buyer's regret, recall that 4-yr, 5+%, non-callable CDs were widely available for a brief period not so long ago. Here's hoping that many here participated when we hit peak rates AND thought long-term!
    YMMV.