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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    PIMIX is a prime example of why it's helpful to have access to the Institutional class of any fund - you can save anywhere from 25 to 75 bps per year in expenses. Especially for bond funds, it's a difference maker.
    Having to pay a Transaction Fee always feels "wrong", but should work out fine in the long run - assuming you hold on.
  • “Cathie Wood's Popular ARK Funds Are Sinking Fast” (Article - WSJ)
    It is a combination of poor stock picking and doubling down on those stocks including Tesla, Zoom Video Communications and Roku. Tesla itself is down 45% this year as the Chinese EVs have overtaking Tesla at a fraction of the price. Something can be said about the benefit of broad diversification such as S&P500 index.
  • “Cathie Wood's Popular ARK Funds Are Sinking Fast” (Article - WSJ)
    From Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal:
    ”Investors have pulled a net $2.2 billion from the six actively managed exchange-traded funds at her ARK Investment Management this year, a withdrawal that dwarfs the outflows in all of 2023. Total assets in those funds have dropped 30% in less than four months to $11.1 billion—after peaking at $59 billion in early 2021, when ARK was the world’s largest active ETF manager. “
    ARK (ARK Innovation ETF) is down 15.85% YTD after gaining 67% + in 2023 (Morningstar)
    (requires subscription)
    https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/ark-funds-cathie-wood-investors-56e2950c?st=ezyihgf7p1r7b9u&reflink=article_copyURL_share
    “Long-term” investors? Or GTHOOH?
  • Top 10 S&P 500 stock leaders 1980-2020
    Absolutely mesmerizing @Level5. Apple swallows the world toward the middle. Then the information age hype of the 90s becomes the Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, NVIDA, META with a dab of Amazon thrown in just teasing of today. But the appearance of some big guys getting chopped off at the knees over the years was worth watching the whole thing.
  • Top 10 S&P 500 stock leaders 1980-2020
    @Level5 - That presentation is absolutely fascinating. Thanks!
  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    Funds, even "pure" Treasury funds, have some wiggle room to hold some other assets. As noted in the Boglehead thread (see below), WisdomTree doesn't make it easy to find the numbers. But last year, "only" 99.9868% of the income was state tax exempt. I've looked at the referenced spreadsheet and verified this.
    One always needs to check the supporting figures that a fund family publishes at tax time. Once upon a time, VUSXX was 100% (exactly) state-tax-exempt. Vanguard changed the way it managed the fund a couple of years ago. With its wiggle room, only about 80% of the income from that fund was state-exempt last year.
    Boglehead post:
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=7710372&sid=b5b46754ca9e296f26c5f65246618ac5#p7710372
    WisdomTree spreadsheet:
    https://view.officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/documents/resource-library/fund-reports-schedules/tax-reporting/2023-tax-supplement-report.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK
  • WealthTrack Show
    4/27/24 Episode:
    Strong demand and limited supply have created long-term opportunities in residential real estate. Top ranked Baron Real Estate Fund manager, Jeff Kolitch shares his highest conviction investments.


  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    Hi @yugo The beginning of the current near term (looking backwards) change of directions for U.S. equity, CD rates, MMKT rates, ultra short term and related bond funds noted by others began to take shape in 2023. Your note about the return for MINT in 2022 is correct.
    Let us start with Covid period. I'll use Fidelity's core MMKT of SPAXX for notation, but this applies to other fund houses and some of their MMKT's, too.
    During this beginning period, MMKT's and CD's were paying next to nothing in yields/interest, as the Fed. was supporting the economy with low rates. One should probably include the beginning of the Russia invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022 for other disruptive circumstances. As the Covid upwind took place and inflation became a large concern for the Fed.; they/it began rate increases with the goal of chasing the 'dubious' goal of obtaining a 2% inflation rate.
    --- April 2020 - April 2022 nominal interest rates/yields were .1%.
    --- July 2022 found rates near 1%
    --- December 2022 found rates near 2.6%
    --- May 2023 found rates near 4.7%
    --- October 2023 - April 26, 2024 4.96%, + or - .05%
    MINT etf distributions, which are paid monthly; reflect the above changes in interest rates/yields.
    --- April 2020 - April 2022 $.05-$.05 Fully range bound and LOW
    --- As with the above for May 2023 - April 2024, MINT distributions have ranged from $.41 - $.45 (current, April 2024). The yield increase from April, 2022- April, 2024 is a full 800%.
    What do all of these numbers mean??? For conservative investors or investors who desire a portion of their portfolio to be relatively uneventful and still make some decent money, are those who chose to follow the CD's path find yields worth pursuing. MMKT's are worth keeping at the current yields. MINT, IMHO; is worth keeping at this time; as well as other etf's mentioned by others.
    The rotation away from the above areas will 'show' it's face when the Fed. chooses to change it's policy on rates.
    NEXT: Late October of 2023 was the beginning of another 'phase', post Covid and Fed. actions. LQD (IG corp. bonds) does look like much against the other listings in the chart. But, it has tried to perform, now and then. It's included, only for reference of a few other etf total returns for the period. Yes, I'm a growth fan.
    CHART of SPY, QQQ, SMH (semi conductors etf) and LQD (investment grade bonds).
    NOTE: Please make me aware of mistakes or contradictions, as I write this while under the influence of meds. TIS big pollen time in Michigan.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • BSCP
    @hank, it's easy to setup, say, a DIY 5-yr Treasury Zeros-ladder. It will have a duration of approximately 2.5 years, comparable to a short-term bond fund.
    For Zeros, duration = maturity, so a 30-yr Zero will have huge volatility.
  • BSCP
    Yes @msf / Your answer is confirmed by AC ‘s prospectus …
    ”Although the fund’s investment policies are designed to provide an investment that is similar to investing in a zero-coupon U.S. Treasury security that matures in the year 2025, a precise forecast of the fund’s final maturity value and yield to maturity is not possible.”
    Interesting. ISTM back in the early 2000s the TD bond funds at AC had a defined termination price … And a lot of jig-sawing up and down along the way. Just puzzled here. BTTRX’s current NAV of $108 + is equally puzzling. I’ve no idea what those shares would look like when the fund terminates in December 2025. One would think a very close predetermination would be possible if it invests in zeros like it says.
  • BSCP
    PS - If I remember correctly, The AC zero-coupon funds I played with 2 decades ago terminated at a set dollar price per share. The U.S. backing of Treasuries made such precise forecasting possible. Corporates (zero or not) occupy a different playing field.
    They terminated at roughly a target price because they were (and BTTRX still is) target maturity funds that held zero coupon bonds (no reinvestment risk/price fluctuation) that matured in the target year. Admittedly holding treasuries eliminates default risk, but that should be minimal with high grade corporates as well.
    Even with all that certainty, forecasting a precise end price wasn't possible. From the summary prospectus:
    Although the fund’s investment policies are designed to provide an investment that is similar to investing in a zero-coupon U.S. Treasury security that matures in the year 2025, a precise forecast of the fund’s final maturity value and yield to maturity is not possible.
    ...
    The anticipated value at maturity is an estimate of the fund’s net asset value as of the fund’s weighted average maturity date. It is based on the maturity values of the zero-coupon securities held by the fund.
  • BSCP
    humm … interesting I’ll look at BOXX. Thanks Yogi.
    What I’ve been mulling over in recent days is something similar to a zero-coupon, but maybe just out 2, 3, 4 years. (Zeros are crazy volatile as I think everyone knows.) Might be a good hedge / hold if you think a serious recession lies ahead (late ‘24 or ‘25).
    I’d guess these can be purchased individually but that funds like the old AC series have pretty much disappeared. I have begun watching AC’s BTTRX for what information it may provide. (This one has 1.56 years to maturity and has a NAV over $108 which doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. My 2 decade old memory is that they matured at $100. But can’t be correct.)
  • BSCP
    @LewisBraham mentions BSCP as an illustration of the target date bond ETFs available in this Week’s Barron’s. (I’ll caution that it does not appear to be a specific recommendation, but constitutes just one component in a broader look at bond ETFs.) The fund invests in corporate bonds. My understanding is that such funds return no regular / compound interest, but mature at a higher valuation, providing interest-like return. For the most part it should be possible to project the yield from the date of purchase until maturity. But ISTM the vicissitudes of the corporate bond markets would inject a certain amount of uncertainty?
    From Invesco’s Prospectus:: ”The Fund will terminate on or about December 15, 2025 without requiring additional approval by the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Invesco Exchange-Traded Self-Indexed Fund Trust (the “Trust”) or Fund shareholders, although the Board may change the termination date. In connection with the termination of the Fund, the Fund will make a cash distribution of its net assets to then-current shareholders after making appropriate provisions for any liabilities of the Fund.”
    - Short question - How could I project out the likely return at the termination date when purchasing?
    - Or, is there no reliable way to do so?
    Thanks for any tips. Thanks to Lewis for a good article.
    PS - If I remember correctly, The AC zero-coupon funds I played with 2 decades ago terminated at a set dollar price per share. The U.S. backing of Treasuries made such precise forecasting possible. Corporates (zero or not) occupy a different playing field.
  • The week that was, global etf's, various categories + heat map. Week ending May 17, 2024.
    The graphic is set for the 5 days ending April 26, Friday; for the best to worst % returns in select etf categories. One may then also select the one month column to align the one month return best to worst; or for the other listed time frame columns.
    ADD an etf performance of your choosing, if you desire. ***
    *** Requested ADD: For the week and YTD
    --- MINT = +.09% / +2.08% Pimco Ultra Short Term Enhanced Bonds
    --- EWW = +3.02% / -1.47% (I Shares, Mexico)
    MMKT note: Fidelity mmkt's yields remain unchanged this week, with core acct's yields at 4.95% (SPAXX) and 4.98% (FDRXX).
    NOTE: The broad U.S. equity and bond sectors finished the week with mixed performance in many sectors. Equity:The 'big' best was again the growth areas. Using 5 large funds with exposure to tech., semi conductors and related found an average of +5.66% for the week. Semi conductor growth being the very best sector. Bond funds ranged from +.09% to a -1.6%, with the ultra short term being the best and the very long term being the worst sectors.
    *** While I focus on U.S. equity and bonds; CHINA (FXI, China large cap etf) had a big awakening this week of +7.8%. This is the first large positive move in a long time frame. I can not provide a reference for this large move; as I have not investigated this action.
    NEW: 1 week 'heat map' by sectors. This is an interactive graphic. You may hover the computer pointer over the various blocks to view portions of sectors and/or stocks within those sectors. NOTE: to the left of the graphic, one may change the 1 week performance drop down menu to another time frame. Another example: at the left edge of the graphic, select exchange traded funds and then 1 week or a time period of your choice.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Top 10 S&P 500 stock leaders 1980-2020
    As Rod Serling would say, “submitted for your approval,” here is a 3-minute video of the changes in the S&P 500 Top Ten stocks over time:

  • New Stock ETFs Offering ‘100%’ Downside Protection Are Coming
    It's not as though it costs the same amount for each rung of protection - that the first 10% of protection costs $X, the next 10% of protection costs the same amount, and so on. As the risk declines, so does the cost of incremental protection. That last 5% you want in chips should come as a freebee.
    Still, seek and ye shall find. ETFs with 15% and 20% downside protection:
    https://preservingwealth.com/15-20-buffer-etfs-moderate-downside-protection/
    More generally, here's M*'s column on buffer ETFs (including variants designed to address the need to buy on a fixed date and hold for precisely a year)
    https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/going-beyond-defined-outcome-etfs
    The protection is not a drag, but a cap. That is, participation rate is 100%, but only up to a given return. And as with principal protection notes, "participation" is in price only; it doesn't include divs.
    Here's the generic investment return vs. reference return graph (from Blackrock).
    image
    https://www.blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/insights/buffer-etfs
  • MINT etf versus CD's versus MMK'Ts
    Taxes (in taxable accounts):
    - short term (12 mo or less) zeros are taxed only at maturity, so a 9 month instrument purchased in May 2024 will not be taxed until the 2025 tax year. This goes for T-bills and short term CDs that pay interest at maturity.
    - if an ETF or fund (other than a MMF) pays interest periodically, one might choose not to reinvest divs. Otherwise, one could be facing an accounting nightmare when withdrawing cash. There's a significant risk of generating wash sales - sell shares at $10.02 that were purchased at $10.05 (a small loss); then the divs reinvested that month will "wash out" that loss.
    - Treasury funds like USFR are (mostly) state tax-exempt.
    Why multiple funds:
    Floating rate and fixed rate markets (yields) don't move in sync and hard to predict. Likewise treasuries and commercial paper.
    Personally I like RPHIX and FLRN, though FLOT is very close to FLRN. I agree with Yogi that Pimco seems to have higher expense funds. In the past JPST (another fund of this ilk) was more aggressive than ICSH and had done better. Not so since roughly the beginning of 2021 when volatilities were comparable and ICSH returned more.
    Here's Fidelity's comparison of RPHIX, USFR, FLRN, ICSH, and MINT. As conditions shift, the cumulative (e.g. three-year) figures could change significantly. IMHO that's the argument for using multiple types of these funds.